Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 km

[bambino]

Re: Re:

I haven't seen much information on the descent. Is it technical enough to ride away, or does the bigger group always have the advantage?

No, it's narrow and quite technical, far from being wide and straightforward. that's clearly a terrain where nibs or bardet might take several tens of seconds.

And Fulgsang. He is on the same level of decending as Nibs.

Expecting to see late attack from Zakarin to make some headroom for the decent as he is not at his best there.

 

[klintE]

Anyway we should see some selection
But Valverde, Landa, Majka, Alafpolak, Fulsgang, Nibs, Froome, Yates, Bardet - should stay in the game.

 

[Blanco]

Re:

Stage 11 is one for the break. Landa is very much a temp climber.

Yet he says himself he loves changes of the rhythm...

 

[bambino]

Re:

Anyway we should see some selection
But Valverde, Landa, Majka, Alafpolak, Fulsgang, Nibs, Froome, Yates, Bardet - should stay in the game.

I suspect you mean GC game? Alaphilippe is not anymore (and has never been) in that game.

 

[del1962]

Re: Re:

Anyway we should see some selection
But Valverde, Landa, Majka, Alafpolak, Fulsgang, Nibs, Froome, Yates, Bardet - should stay in the game.

I suspect you mean GC game? Alaphilippe is not anymore (and has never been) in that game.

If Alaphilippe wins it is from the break

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Who will control the break? Sky? Movi?

Movi won't, Sky probably, depends on the composition of the break.

It'll be interesting to see to be fair. Sky might have a bit of dilemma for this stage as they probably want Kwia holding on to the end to bridge any possible attacks in the final descent. Which would mean they can't make him work too much in the train. The stage is too hard for Rowe, Castro and Moscon to do all train work and Bernal might be still in the recovery mode if starting at all. And I don't think they want Poels to work too much this early. It could well be Sky is not going to control too much today epecially in the first climbs of the day.

I agree on Sky, they will have a dilemma whether to work or not. Best outcome for them is to let the break for the stage, and ride steady but not too hard on the front, and then what happens on the last two climbs happens. But if we have a threat for Thomas yellow in the break, that would change things dramatically, Moscon and Kwiat would need to work way earlier than planned, Bernal is questionable due to Roubaix stage and Poels looked weak these days. So it would be quite possible that Froome and Thomas will be left alone on Colombiere when attacks come. It would be interesting to see who will work for who then

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

Who will control the break? Sky? Movi?

Movi won't, Sky probably, depends on the composition of the break.

It'll be interesting to see to be fair. Sky might have a bit of dilemma for this stage as they probably want Kwia holding on to the end to bridge any possible attacks in the final descent. Which would mean they can't make him work too much in the train. The stage is too hard for Rowe, Castro and Moscon to do all train work and Bernal might be still in the recovery mode if starting at all. And I don't think they want Poels to work too much this early. It could well be Sky is not going to control too much today epecially in the first climbs of the day.

I agree on Sky, they will have a dilemma whether to work or not. Best outcome for them is to let the break for the stage, and ride steady but not too hard on the front, and then what happens on the last two climbs happens. But if we have a threat for Thomas yellow in the break, that would change things dramatically, Moscon and Kwiat would need to work way earlier than planned, Bernal is questionable due to Roubaix stage and Poels looked weak these days. So it would be quite possible that Froome and Thomas will be left alone on Colombiere when attacks come. It would be interesting to see who will work for who then

Don't let Poels in first 9 stages to fool you. He hasn't been asked to do anything else than saving energy so far. I expect him to be better than in last year Vuelta when the real rock starts.

 

[Gigs_98]

Re:

I don't buy the argument that it's conservative tactics that have failed to break the Sky train (in what - 6 tours now?). I think the issue is that everyone is basically on the limit holding on. It's not 'when should I attack?' or even 'can I attack.' It's more like 'I'm trying really hard not to get dropped.'

The very best hold on, and maybe spend whatever tiny little biscuit they have left at 350metres to go.

If this changes somehow (please Movistar!), excellent. But I have long given up hope.

I'm not so sure. Froome struggled most in the tours where the racing was most aggressive. In 2015 froome was really close to losing and in 2013 he lost quite a lot of time on the last two mtf's (his advantage was so big that he was never in danger of losing the tour but still he seemingly struggled a lot more than in 2016 and 2017). Ofc it's difficult to say how much of this is due to different preparation by Froome and different team strength but I still think it has something to do with how aggressive his opponents were. The problem in the last two years was that nibali was never there, contador either crashed out or in bad shape and Quintana was in bad shape twice. What we were left with was Romain "I made the race" bardet who didn't want to attack an isolated Froome who was behind the peloton on stage 15 because he thought you can't attack with 20k to go. Could aggressive racing have derailed the sky train? Possibly but it always should have been clear that what bardet and Uran did would never be enough

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Re:

Who will control the break? Sky? Movi?

Movi won't, Sky probably, depends on the composition of the break.

It'll be interesting to see to be fair. Sky might have a bit of dilemma for this stage as they probably want Kwia holding on to the end to bridge any possible attacks in the final descent. Which would mean they can't make him work too much in the train. The stage is too hard for Rowe, Castro and Moscon to do all train work and Bernal might be still in the recovery mode if starting at all. And I don't think they want Poels to work too much this early. It could well be Sky is not going to control too much today epecially in the first climbs of the day.

I agree on Sky, they will have a dilemma whether to work or not. Best outcome for them is to let the break for the stage, and ride steady but not too hard on the front, and then what happens on the last two climbs happens. But if we have a threat for Thomas yellow in the break, that would change things dramatically, Moscon and Kwiat would need to work way earlier than planned, Bernal is questionable due to Roubaix stage and Poels looked weak these days. So it would be quite possible that Froome and Thomas will be left alone on Colombiere when attacks come. It would be interesting to see who will work for who then

Poels has probably just saved as much energy he can for the 3 stages ahead. Would not read into it more than that. But if he is forced to work early today then Froome and Thomas will most likely have to fiend for themselves on the last climbs. Kwiat, Moscon and Bernal all crashed on cobbles so we will see how they feeling also. If first climbs raced hard then Sky wont be able control, even though they might be able to come back on the flat section before the last climbs.

It all just depends when break goes and how hard those first climbs are raced even though I expect a big group at the bottom of the last climbs either way.

 

[klintE]

Re: Re:

Anyway we should see some selection
But Valverde, Landa, Majka, Alafpolak, Fulsgang, Nibs, Froome, Yates, Bardet - should stay in the game.

I suspect you mean GC game? Alaphilippe is not anymore (and has never been) in that game.

Yeah, he landed here cause, IMO, he can win today. No GC chances at all

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

The thought that 20-30'', earned by his sweat and blood, can easily melt on the descent, will hold back Quintana really badly. I'd rather hope for 2nd tier contenders attacking. jakob, roglic, yates, probably mollema should try to speculate on their status of dark horses. thus far, they might be allowed to ride away relatively easily.

dont expect anything from El Bauke as he hurt his back on the cobbled stages. One of the most likely to bleed time.

No, not El Bauke....

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

I don't buy the argument that it's conservative tactics that have failed to break the Sky train (in what - 6 tours now?). I think the issue is that everyone is basically on the limit holding on. It's not 'when should I attack?' or even 'can I attack.' It's more like 'I'm trying really hard not to get dropped.'

The very best hold on, and maybe spend whatever tiny little biscuit they have left at 350metres to go.

If this changes somehow (please Movistar!), excellent. But I have long given up hope.

I'm not so sure. Froome struggled most in the tours where the racing was most aggressive. In 2015 froome was really close to losing and in 2013 he lost quite a lot of time on the last two mtf's (his advantage was so big that he was never in danger of losing the tour but still he seemingly struggled a lot more than in 2016 and 2017). Ofc it's difficult to say how much of this is due to different preparation by Froome and different team strength but I still think it has something to do with how aggressive his opponents were. The problem in the last two years was that nibali was never there, contador either crashed out or in bad shape and Quintana was in bad shape twice. What we were left with was Romain "I made the race" bardet who didn't want to attack an isolated Froome who was behind the peloton on stage 15 because he thought you can't attack with 20k to go. Could aggressive racing have derailed the sky train? Possibly but it always should have been clear that what bardet and Uran did would never be enough

I don't think you can severely judge Bardet for the way he was riding in 2016 and especially 2017. he is exactly as limited as quintana, way too lightweight for time trials and long-distance attacks, but he is real a fighter who extracts 100% out of his physique and natural ability. Could you imagine Quintana descending kamikaze-style from Mont du Chat and then hurting himself in the wind on flats? I don't.

 

[Bot. Sky_Bot]

The same kind of discussion as in previous years, the same marvellous ideas.
GT by GT. Stage by stage.
Final result would also be as usual.

 

[glassmoon]

I expect nothing.
Still be watching though

 

[bambino]

Another interesting aspect is how Nibs is going to use Pozzo. The Giro he did will show as fatigue rather sooner than later as he has also been racing in between to certain extend. Pozzo is still close enough to be threat for yellow thus it could be he will attack or try to get to break in the next couple of days. Delphino will most probably show up as the companion for Nibs in the bunch.

 

[klintE]

This year must be very different
Last TdF in same moment was 10 guys in 3 minutes (and with most of them out of best shape)
Now we have 20 GC guys in 3 minutes, without Sky leading the pace and some teams seem to be properly prepared for battle.
This can't be boring as always is

 

[rghysens]

Re:

I expect nothing.
Still be watching though

I expect the same as the previous years, which was about the same as in 2000-2005. If something meaningful happens I'll be pleasantly sirprised and watch the recap this evening.

 

[Forever The Best]

Movistar MUST attack properly.

 

[The Hegelian]

Re: Re:

I don't buy the argument that it's conservative tactics that have failed to break the Sky train (in what - 6 tours now?). I think the issue is that everyone is basically on the limit holding on. It's not 'when should I attack?' or even 'can I attack.' It's more like 'I'm trying really hard not to get dropped.'

The very best hold on, and maybe spend whatever tiny little biscuit they have left at 350metres to go.

If this changes somehow (please Movistar!), excellent. But I have long given up hope.

I'm not so sure. Froome struggled most in the tours where the racing was most aggressive. In 2015 froome was really close to losing and in 2013 he lost quite a lot of time on the last two mtf's (his advantage was so big that he was never in danger of losing the tour but still he seemingly struggled a lot more than in 2016 and 2017). Ofc it's difficult to say how much of this is due to different preparation by Froome and different team strength but I still think it has something to do with how aggressive his opponents were. The problem in the last two years was that nibali was never there, contador either crashed out or in bad shape and Quintana was in bad shape twice. What we were left with was Romain "I made the race" bardet who didn't want to attack an isolated Froome who was behind the peloton on stage 15 because he thought you can't attack with 20k to go. Could aggressive racing have derailed the sky train? Possibly but it always should have been clear that what bardet and Uran did would never be enough

Sure, I take your points. More attacking & open racing has certainly happened at the Vuelta & Giro, and it's put Sky on the backfoot. I suppose what I'm saying is that Sky tend to be a level above physically at the tdf. Ergo, in the safety of the internet forum we can discuss tactics, but on the road, serious horsepower trumps everything. The question really is: how do you take down an empire?

Answer: you probably have to wait until it crumbles within. And it may well in the 3rd week. I think it will - because a Sky train won't leave the station if the Giro legs kick in.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Another interesting aspect is how Nibs is going to use Pozzo. The Giro he did will show as fatigue rather sooner than later as he has also been racing in between to certain extend. Pozzo is still close enough to be threat for yellow thus it could be he will attack or try to get to break in the next couple of days. Delphino will most probably show up as the companion for Nibs in the bunch.

Pozzo didn't race at all between Giro and Tour, only Italian championships RR.

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Another interesting aspect is how Nibs is going to use Pozzo. The Giro he did will show as fatigue rather sooner than later as he has also been racing in between to certain extend. Pozzo is still close enough to be threat for yellow thus it could be he will attack or try to get to break in the next couple of days. Delphino will most probably show up as the companion for Nibs in the bunch.

Pozzo didn't race at all between Giro and Tour, only Italian championships RR.

And the Lugano race but that shouldn't matter at all.

 

[dacooley]

does anyone root for historical double finally getting conquerred?

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

Another interesting aspect is how Nibs is going to use Pozzo. The Giro he did will show as fatigue rather sooner than later as he has also been racing in between to certain extend. Pozzo is still close enough to be threat for yellow thus it could be he will attack or try to get to break in the next couple of days. Delphino will most probably show up as the companion for Nibs in the bunch.

Pozzo didn't race at all between Giro and Tour, only Italian championships RR.

Ah my bad. I thought he was in TdS, but apparently not. The point remains the same though, if we predict fatigue will be a factor for Froome/TomD, the same applies to Pozzo. He needs to be used properly before that happens.

 

[saganftw]

why we kidding ourselves...only interesting thing about this TdF will be to watch geraint thomas riding for himself despite SKY orders

 

[120mmStem]

Re:

why we kidding ourselves...only interesting thing about this TdF will be to watch geraint thomas riding for himself despite SKY orders

This is exactly what I’m waiting for. When will FROOME attack to get that time back? Will Thomas follow? What happens if Movistar attacks? Who will cover the attack?