Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 km

[Nirvana]

I'd expect van Avermaet in the break to try to save the yellow jersey like he did in 2016.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

After the disappointment on yesterday's cobbles stage, let's hope this one delivers.

Wait, what disappointment?

Nothing really happened except some riders crashing. None of the GC riders dared any real attack and it seemed they we're all happy not to lose time. That's the disappointment. I would have expected some of the GC riders to see the stage as an opportunity to gain time, and not as a risk to lose time.

 

[hayneplane]

Re:

I'd expect van Avermaet in the break to try to save the yellow jersey like he did in 2016.

Seems like a good shout to me as it's their most productive hope of getting anything from the stage. Wonder whether we will get an epic Sagan showboating for fun show or if his inability to make the difference on the cobbles shows he needs to recharge the batteries and wait a few days.

One certainty is De Gendt will try to make the move and any climber out of the GC has a big chance to lay the foundations for a polka dot jersey challenge.

The Glieres climb looks really fun for us but may well be too far out on day one for the mountains to spur the peloton into full action.

 

[Bolder]

Re: Re:

I'd expect van Avermaet in the break to try to save the yellow jersey like he did in 2016.

Seems like a good shout to me as it's their most productive hope of getting anything from the stage. Wonder whether we will get an epic Sagan showboating for fun show or if his inability to make the difference on the cobbles shows he needs to recharge the batteries and wait a few days.

One certainty is De Gendt will try to make the move and any climber out of the GC has a big chance to lay the foundations for a polka dot jersey challenge.

The Glieres climb looks really fun for us but may well be too far out on day one for the mountains to spur the peloton into full action.

Actually, the run-up to the dirt section looks brutal -- 6k at 11 percent plus?

 

[Forever The Best]

Re: Re:

movistar doesn't have a proper team resource to do a massive drilling work since valverde is not a guy, who's willing to completety sacrifice his chances for the team.

First Amador and then Soler will drive a hard pace on Romme, i guess. Nairo to attack on Colombiere, ideally together with Landa.

Glieres is a great climb, but a long way before the final. Still, it might be worth it to try out an attack with Landa or Valverde.

How about Soler and Amador drilling it on Glieres then an attack by the trio in Romme?

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

After the disappointment on yesterday's cobbles stage, let's hope this one delivers.

Wait, what disappointment?

Nothing really happened except some riders crashing. None of the GC riders dared any real attack and it seemed they we're all happy not to lose time. That's the disappointment. I would have expected some of the GC riders to see the stage as an opportunity to gain time, and not as a risk to lose time.

In that sense it was disappointing indeed, but it was still pretty entertaining to watch.

 

[Red Rick]

Re:

I have a higher hope for Bahrain rather than Movistar. Landa quite heavily hit the deck and needs some time to heal his wounds. I don't remember Valverde launching any serious attack while being a gc relevant rider in the tour for many many years. Quintana is not suited to that kind of finales since he prefers to explode when a stage finishes uphill. Most likely it is going to be a gc reconnaissance stage. there is too much climbing to come yet.

I think the final is a little too hard to just be testing the waters. No matter how strong or weak Froome is, I don't think there's a situation where almost nothing happens. If Froome is really weak, Sky's pace will be low, and people will look to break him. If he's average, Sky will look to set a pace to discourage attacks, which surely will whittle down the group. If Froome's really good, he'll look to attack.

I do think that the gaps in GC are too small for much to happen on the Col de Romme though, which is too bad. Maybe Bardet will try it, but I don't see him trying to go solo or anything.

Even teams with multiple GC cards now can't really attack very hard with one of them on the Romme because it risks dropping others out of contention. A tactical move in the breakaway is an option, but Sky will not let that happen in a million years.

 

[hayneplane]

Re: Re:

I'd expect van Avermaet in the break to try to save the yellow jersey like he did in 2016.

Seems like a good shout to me as it's their most productive hope of getting anything from the stage. Wonder whether we will get an epic Sagan showboating for fun show or if his inability to make the difference on the cobbles shows he needs to recharge the batteries and wait a few days.

One certainty is De Gendt will try to make the move and any climber out of the GC has a big chance to lay the foundations for a polka dot jersey challenge.

The Glieres climb looks really fun for us but may well be too far out on day one for the mountains to spur the peloton into full action.

Actually, the run-up to the dirt section looks brutal -- 6k at 11 percent plus?

Yes such sustained steepness is very rare in TdF climbs, one would more readily associate it with Angliru or Zoncolan, it seems the kind of climb where riders just have to find a coping pace and gear and teammates are little benefit.

If it was late in the 3rd week it would be a perfect launch for a Froome on Finestre style raid.

 

[Akuryo]

Re: Re:

Only if you count Thomas and Jungels as real contenders then they have a slight lead on everyone else.

Why not? The guy has been 6th and 8th in the Giro before, winning the best young rider competition twice in consecutive years. A feat last achieved by two people in the early 90s. I dont say that he will win the Tour but top 10 should be almost a given. I wouldn't even rule him out for top 5 after what happened to a lot of other "contenders". He has almost 2 minutes or more over guys like Dan Martin, Zakarin, Uran or Bardet already. Add the DNF of Porte. I had Jungels just outside the top 10 at the start of the race when everybody was healthy. His stock has only gone up since (or others failed their expectations). It baffles me how almost nobody seems to take him seriously. He wont destroy the rest of the field in the high mountains but he can limit his losses. Remember 2011, when they gave a guy named Voeckler 2 minutes over the other favorites? He also limited his losses and finished 4th in the end... and that guy wasnt half the climber Jungels is.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

I have a higher hope for Bahrain rather than Movistar. Landa quite heavily hit the deck and needs some time to heal his wounds. I don't remember Valverde launching any serious attack while being a gc relevant rider in the tour for many many years. Quintana is not suited to that kind of finales since he prefers to explode when a stage finishes uphill. Most likely it is going to be a gc reconnaissance stage. there is too much climbing to come yet.

I think the final is a little too hard to just be testing the waters. No matter how strong or weak Froome is, I don't think there's a situation where almost nothing happens. If Froome is really weak, Sky's pace will be low, and people will look to break him. If he's average, Sky will look to set a pace to discourage attacks, which surely will whittle down the group. If Froome's really good, he'll look to attack.

I do think that the gaps in GC are too small for much to happen on the Col de Romme though, which is too bad. Maybe Bardet will try it, but I don't see him trying to go solo or anything.

Even teams with multiple GC cards now can't really attack very hard with one of them on the Romme because it risks dropping others out of contention. A tactical move in the breakaway is an option, but Sky will not let that happen in a million years.

agreed, it's virtually the toughest bloc of three consecutive stages over the last decade in the tour, so probably some team upping the pace won't be needed. steep slopes of rome and colombier will force some big guns drop back.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

After the disappointment on yesterday's cobbles stage, let's hope this one delivers.

Wait, what disappointment?

Nothing really happened except some riders crashing. None of the GC riders dared any real attack and it seemed they we're all happy not to lose time. That's the disappointment. I would have expected some of the GC riders to see the stage as an opportunity to gain time, and not as a risk to lose time.

How? Even though slightly less difficult than yesterday's stage, 2015 taught us not much was going to happen with this weather (apart from the crashes, punctures etc.).

 

[Robert5091]

Re: Re:

Bernal at 18 minutes down will be interesting to follow now. Plus how does Yates plan to gain time?

If you think young boy leading the train up to mountains until he cracks is interesting.... because that is where Bernal's place now is after the chase for White is more or less gone. Sky isn't exactly famous on allowing stage hunting in GT's, not with 9 riders and probably even less with 8.

I would think Poels will do his normal "last man with Dawg" routine, and Bernal will be used sparingly in the train. I could see Sky sending him up the road on ascents as help, if needed.

A MS-train with Yates & Nieve to the fore might well happen before Paris.

 

[Frihed89]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 k

I don't expect any fireworks. This is the Tour de France, not a demolition derby. Sure, teams will test each other, trying to start wearing the others down, looking for and hoping to exploit some weakness a wee bit. But I don't see any team with a contending rider making reckless decisions so early.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

Bernal at 18 minutes down will be interesting to follow now. Plus how does Yates plan to gain time?

If you think young boy leading the train up to mountains until he cracks is interesting.... because that is where Bernal's place now is after the chase for White is more or less gone. Sky isn't exactly famous on allowing stage hunting in GT's, not with 9 riders and probably even less with 8.

I would think Poels will do his normal "last man with Dawg" routine, and Bernal will be used sparingly in the train. I could see Sky sending him up the road on ascents as help, if needed.

A MS-train with Yates & Nieve to the fore might well happen before Paris.

Indeed Bernal is probably going to perform similar role as Nieve used to perform, not really the last man, but someone that takes over after Kwiat/Moscon and to be around in case of troubles with Froome or Poels as his last man.

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Re:

Only if you count Thomas and Jungels as real contenders then they have a slight lead on everyone else.

Why not? The guy has been 6th and 8th in the Giro before, winning the best young rider competition twice in consecutive years. A feat last achieved by two people in the early 90s. I dont say that he will win the Tour but top 10 should be almost a given. I wouldn't even rule him out for top 5 after what happened to a lot of other "contenders". He has almost 2 minutes or more over guys like Dan Martin, Zakarin, Uran or Bardet already. Add the DNF of Porte. I had Jungels just outside the top 10 at the start of the race when everybody was healthy. His stock has only gone up since (or others failed their expectations). It baffles me how almost nobody seems to take him seriously. He wont destroy the rest of the field in the high mountains but he can limit his losses. Remember 2011, when they gave a guy named Voeckler 2 minutes over the other favorites? He also limited his losses and finished 4th in the end... and that guy wasnt half the climber Jungels is.

Stages so far has suited Jungels. He is an all-round great rider. If he can limit his losses now in the mountains and be within distance for the ITT he has a good chance for a top 10. Maybe even higher. What speaks against him tho is the lack of support. Except for Alaphilippe, he dont got much support. Im pretty sure Alaphilippe should be having a free role to go for the KOM and stages also. Not look after Jungels. Even tho Jungels might still do pretty good on his own just defending himself, since he is pretty much is in the mold of Dumoulin type rider.

I have to say, Voeckler is a bad example of the point your making, even though I think your point is valid. Because Jungels could very well be able to limit his losses pretty good. In Voeklers case tho, he had the Yellow Jersey and people can often be inspired to dig a bit deeper when they have it, and he is french. He would have died trying to defend that jersey and was riding over his ability that year. Able to reach a level you might only do when you are in great form and have a nations hope on your shoulders, and it was Voeckler and he had done it before lol

 

[DNP-Old]

It's unsure if Egan starts tomorrow.

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 10: Annecy > Le Grand-Bornand 158,5 k

I don't expect any fireworks. This is the Tour de France, not a demolition derby. Sure, teams will test each other, trying to start wearing the others down, looking for and hoping to exploit some weakness a wee bit. But I don't see any team with a contending rider making reckless decisions so early.

Im sure a team is gonna at least put up the pace to see if they can drop someone with just setting a high pace on the last climbs. Maybe even try attacking.

If someone has amazing legs and feeling great, they should probably attack. You probably only get at most 2-3 chances during the whole Tour and you dont know how the legs feel on other days...

 

[Ataraxus]

Re: Re:

I'd expect van Avermaet in the break to try to save the yellow jersey like he did in 2016.

Seems like a good shout to me as it's their most productive hope of getting anything from the stage. Wonder whether we will get an epic Sagan showboating for fun show or if his inability to make the difference on the cobbles shows he needs to recharge the batteries and wait a few days.

One certainty is De Gendt will try to make the move and any climber out of the GC has a big chance to lay the foundations for a polka dot jersey challenge.

The Glieres climb looks really fun for us but may well be too far out on day one for the mountains to spur the peloton into full action.

Actually, the run-up to the dirt section looks brutal -- 6k at 11 percent plus?

Yes such sustained steepness is very rare in TdF climbs, one would more readily associate it with Angliru or Zoncolan, it seems the kind of climb where riders just have to find a coping pace and gear and teammates are little benefit.

If it was late in the 3rd week it would be a perfect launch for a Froome on Finestre style raid.

And the descent into Thorens Glieres looks very technical.
They should use this as a last (or penultimate) climb in the TDFs to come.

 

[SafeBet]

Re: Re:

Why not? The guy has been 6th and 8th in the Giro before, winning the best young rider competition twice in consecutive years. A feat last achieved by two people in the early 90s. I dont say that he will win the Tour but top 10 should be almost a given. I wouldn't even rule him out for top 5 after what happened to a lot of other "contenders". He has almost 2 minutes or more over guys like Dan Martin, Zakarin, Uran or Bardet already. Add the DNF of Porte. I had Jungels just outside the top 10 at the start of the race when everybody was healthy. His stock has only gone up since (or others failed their expectations). It baffles me how almost nobody seems to take him seriously. He wont destroy the rest of the field in the high mountains but he can limit his losses. Remember 2011, when they gave a guy named Voeckler 2 minutes over the other favorites? He also limited his losses and finished 4th in the end... and that guy wasnt half the climber Jungels is.

Thank you!
The guy is only 25 years old so he should still be improving.

 

[Asero831]

May we know what are the disadvantages of being isolated in the mountain?

I mean, you just have to follow a wheel to pace you and shield from wind or other elements.
Also there are team cars right away in case of mechanical.
In terms of water or food or clothes, the team car is just 30 meters back.

 

[Googolplex]

The further away the opponents attack with team support, the bigger disadvantage not having it is. If you don't catch an attack immediately, you are alone. Remember what happened Dumoulin in Vuelta (though he didn't have the best of days, but a good team would surely have been helpful). If there is a Sky train to last 3 kilometres, there is not much disadvantage.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Re: Re:

After the disappointment on yesterday's cobbles stage, let's hope this one delivers.

Wait, what disappointment?

Nothing really happened except some riders crashing. None of the GC riders dared any real attack and it seemed they we're all happy not to lose time. That's the disappointment. I would have expected some of the GC riders to see the stage as an opportunity to gain time, and not as a risk to lose time.

How? Even though slightly less difficult than yesterday's stage, 2015 taught us not much was going to happen with this weather (apart from the crashes, punctures etc.).

2010 was great.

 

[ontheroad]

Movistar to smash it and Landa to ride away for stage victory.

 

[Frankschleck]

Greg Van Avermant to join the break.

 

[Robert5091]

Chance of a shower tomorrow which might liven things up.