Le Tour 2018 stage 11: Albertville > La Rosière 108,5 km

[Koronin]

Well Landa did say today that tomorrow stage is much more conducive to attacks than today's stage. He also said today's stage didn't work very well at all for him and Quintana to even think about doing anything.

 

[The Hegelian]

People don't seem to get this unfortunate fact: you can't attack if you're on the limit merely holding on. The Sky-doms are a level above, and whatever chess you play can't transcend physiology.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vincenzo-nibali-it-was-impossible-to-attack/

Maybe Quintana can do something. Maybe.

 

[The Barb]

Re:

People don't seem to get this unfortunate fact: you can't attack if you're on the limit merely holding on. The Sky-doms are a level above, and whatever chess you play can't transcend physiology.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vincenzo-nibali-it-was-impossible-to-attack/

Maybe Quintana can do something. Maybe.

This is very accurate.

Any attack will just result in the attacker getting maybe 100 metres up the road, then gradually being brought back by the Sky train, before later being spat out the back as they pay for their exertions.

If Froome were here with his Giro team then things would be different. But when Sky can relay up a climb with Moscon, Kwiatkowski, Bernal, Poels and Thomas, before Froome even has to put his nose in the wind, there's no hope for attacking whatsoever.

I hate it when people seem to enjoy predicting boring racing, but in this case it seems inevitable.

 

[Jspear]

Re:

People don't seem to get this unfortunate fact: you can't attack if you're on the limit merely holding on. The Sky-doms are a level above, and whatever chess you play can't transcend physiology.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vincenzo-nibali-it-was-impossible-to-attack/

Maybe Quintana can do something. Maybe.

When you have Valverde, Landa, and Quintana in the same team you CAN break the sky train. You just have to have the do or die mentality. They will not achieve success if they’re all trying to top 10, but it’s more than doable if they all rally behind one leader.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Re: Re:

People don't seem to get this unfortunate fact: you can't attack if you're on the limit merely holding on. The Sky-doms are a level above, and whatever chess you play can't transcend physiology.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vincenzo-nibali-it-was-impossible-to-attack/

Maybe Quintana can do something. Maybe.

When you have Valverde, Landa, and Quintana in the same team you CAN break the sky train. You just have to have the do or die mentality. They will not achieve success if they’re all trying to top 10, but it’s more than doable if they all rally behind one leader.

The only shot they have is when they don't rally behind one leader. Wait for the final climb (but start early) generally speaking (not necesserally this stage since it's so short) and attack alternately. Froome will only have two domestiques left, and he'll burn through them fast. Sky will need to respond since the 3 Movistars are well placed in the GC. That way they can single out Froome. If they are better than Froome's domestiques, then the other two should be able to hang on while the third one is on the attack. Then it's up to Froome to close the gap, and when he does, another one can attack. He can't afford to let them go, since they are all up there in the GC.

As soon as they start working for one leader as you propose, is when it gets easier for Sky, since they only have to keep an eye on one guy. If that guy has a bad day, or a puncture or a crash, it's all over.

 

[The Hegelian]

I'm sure it's theoretically possible. But I think we've earned the right to be pessimistic/skeptical, after enduring six excruciating years of this.

Yesterday one of the commentators called it an elimination race - quite insightful really. Uran, Zakarin, Jungels.....they didn't put even one pedal stroke into the wind, and their tours are close to finished after one mountain stage. That's how intense the Sky tempo is. And last year, a lot of people here were saying: "Why won't Uran attack?"

Beyond Movistar's dream team, the one big difference this year is Froome potentially tiring/cracking. Sky won't ride their robo-tempo if Froome tells them he's feeling bad. And then: a race!

 

[movingtarget]

If time can't be gained on the Sky riders on this stage it's not looking good. Dan Martin will be the first to attack from the GC riders of course. Nibali and Quintana have to try something on this stage.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

An interesting argument that Movistar have no choice but to go for it tomorrow if they want to win the Tour: https://www.podiumcafe.com/2018/7/17/17583750/they-must-take-advantage

Send the link to Unzue.

404/tactic not found. So often recently the Movistar response to being in this position has been to leave it too late, and I think that will be the case again here. They basically need Valverde or Landa to lose a bunch of time and have no choice but to work. But even then they'd probably just get in breaks and ride for themselves.

 

[thehog]

Re:

I'm sure it's theoretically possible. But I think we've earned the right to be pessimistic/skeptical, after enduring six excruciating years of this.

Yesterday one of the commentators called it an elimination race - quite insightful really. Uran, Zakarin, Jungels.....they didn't put even one pedal stroke into the wind, and their tours are close to finished after one mountain stage. That's how intense the Sky tempo is. And last year, a lot of people here were saying: "Why won't Uran attack?"

Beyond Movistar's dream team, the one big difference this year is Froome potentially tiring/cracking. Sky won't ride their robo-tempo if Froome tells them he's feeling bad. And then: a race!

if Froome is feeling bad they have Thomas. It will be a procession one way or the other.

The only thing going for the stage is it’s shortness but there are three climbs so too hard to attack early. Sky all the way up to the final climb for a last 2km shootout if Froome doesn’t get to go high cadance before then.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

Re:

People don't seem to get this unfortunate fact: you can't attack if you're on the limit merely holding on. The Sky-doms are a level above, and whatever chess you play can't transcend physiology.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vincenzo-nibali-it-was-impossible-to-attack/

Maybe Quintana can do something. Maybe.

Maybe riders were on their limits toward the top of the final climb, but earlier? Surely not. I don't know why people don't at least try to break up the Sky rhythm earlier in stages more often. Sacrifice someone to hit them hard for a couple of ks and at least drop Rowe and Castroviejo rather than letting them lead the peloton up HC/cat 1 climbs.

History shows suicidal attacks won't beat the sky train, but still the lack of imagination teams show baffles me. What's the point of even having climbers as domestiques if you're just going to let sky set the pace anyway? You may as well use them for something.

 

[gregrowlerson]

At the end of the day it mainly gets back to who is the strongest leader. When Quintana really goes, whether that be 5 or 30 kms from home, Michal and Moscon will be totally useless, and if they are not totally useless than Quintana simply isn't strong enough to win the Tour. Only Thomas in such a scenario may be of some help to limiting the time gaps for Froome, but how much will he be willing to help even if he can?

Another thing. If you want to make a serious difference on a stage, you make the majority of that stage hard. You don't allow Luke Rowe to lead over the top of a category 1 climb. If you use up some of your own domestiques to make sure that that doesn't happen again, so be it.

Sky also must keep in mind that Dumoulin isn't out of it yet, so even Froome or Thomas may need to attack at some point, bearing in mind that Tom can take time in the ITT. Perhaps in hindsight it will be Froome who is missing his chance in the Alps. Maybe he has great legs now, and expects to have great legs in the Pyrenees, but because of the Giro, won't. I find it hard to believe Froome doing anything remotely PSMish in week three.

 

[richo36]

I would like to see a team take a chance using a different strategy to beat the sky train. At the moment it’s like watching FW and everyone thinking they can beat Valverde in a uphill sprint. Sure it can happen but the odds are not in your favour.

I would love to see a team send 2 riders in the break. Then once break has got enough time put a couple riders on the front and ride a very inconsistent tempo. Ride an impossible pace for 5-10mins, then just literally come to a stop. Ride a slow pace then speed it up again. Effectively a team like sky like to ride a constant tempo force them to not be able to ride the way they want. If nothing else tire Froome out. If sky show weakness you have 2 riders up the road who have had a “easier” ride who you can use.

It probably wouldn’t work but at least do something different. Holding onto the sky train and hoping to attack with 2-3km to go is not going to work.

 

[Leinster]

Re: Re:

People don't seem to get this unfortunate fact: you can't attack if you're on the limit merely holding on. The Sky-doms are a level above, and whatever chess you play can't transcend physiology.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vincenzo-nibali-it-was-impossible-to-attack/

Maybe Quintana can do something. Maybe.

Maybe riders were on their limits toward the top of the final climb, but earlier? Surely not. I don't know why people don't at least try to break up the Sky rhythm earlier in stages more often. Sacrifice someone to hit them hard for a couple of ks and at least drop Rowe and Castroviejo rather than letting them lead the peloton up HC/cat 1 climbs.

History shows suicidal attacks won't beat the sky train, but still the lack of imagination teams show baffles me. What's the point of even having climbers as domestiques if you're just going to let sky set the pace anyway? You may as well use them for something.

Bahrain sent Izagirre up the road for exactly the reasons you're talking about, but the opportunity for Nibali to bridge across never came about.

As for attacking earlier, there were 50km into the wind from the summit of the Glieres to the foot of the Romme, and THEN 2 cat 1 climbs in a row. Even if someone had put in a big enough attack to drop Rowe or Castroviejo, they would've been hung out to dry in the valley after.

 

[bambino]

I would like to see a team take a chance using a different strategy to beat the sky train. At the moment it’s like watching FW and everyone thinking they can beat Valverde in a uphill sprint. Sure it can happen but the odds are not in your favour.

I would love to see a team send 2 riders in the break. Then once break has got enough time put a couple riders on the front and ride a very inconsistent tempo. Ride an impossible pace for 5-10mins, then just literally come to a stop. Ride a slow pace then speed it up again. Effectively a team like sky like to ride a constant tempo force them to not be able to ride the way they want. If nothing else tire Froome out. If sky show weakness you have 2 riders up the road who have had a “easier” ride who you can use.

It probably wouldn’t work but at least do something different. Holding onto the sky train and hoping to attack with 2-3km to go is not going to work.

No other team than Sky has the depth to send 2 useful doms to break + have other 2-3 guys driving inconsistent tempo with 5-10m of "impossible" tempo in between. What the people do not understand here is that i.e. Rowe and Castro would be top 2-3 mountains doms in any other team in this race in their current shape.

Thinking about it, maybe the reduction to 8 riders per team worked in Sky's favor though the intention was probably different. They have luxury problem that none other team has with world class all-rounders in every terrain. Don't think any other team has the same problem and had to make compromises with TTT and Cobbles in mind.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

I would like to see a team take a chance using a different strategy to beat the sky train. At the moment it’s like watching FW and everyone thinking they can beat Valverde in a uphill sprint. Sure it can happen but the odds are not in your favour.

I would love to see a team send 2 riders in the break. Then once break has got enough time put a couple riders on the front and ride a very inconsistent tempo. Ride an impossible pace for 5-10mins, then just literally come to a stop. Ride a slow pace then speed it up again. Effectively a team like sky like to ride a constant tempo force them to not be able to ride the way they want. If nothing else tire Froome out. If sky show weakness you have 2 riders up the road who have had a “easier” ride who you can use.

It probably wouldn’t work but at least do something different. Holding onto the sky train and hoping to attack with 2-3km to go is not going to work.

No other team than Sky has the depth to send 2 useful doms to break + have other 2-3 guys driving inconsistent tempo with 5-10m of "impossible" tempo in between. What the people do not understand here is that i.e. Rowe and Castro would be top 2-3 mountains doms in any other team in this race in their current shape.

Thinking about it, maybe the reduction to 8 riders per team worked in Sky's favor though the intention was probably different. They have luxury problem that none other team has with world class all-rounders in every terrain. Don't think any other team has the same problem and had to make compromises with TTT and Cobbles in mind.

Would they though? Castroviejo is a decent enough climber, but Rowe?? Reminds me more of 2012 when Cavendish was pacing the peloton up cat 1 climbs and everyone just let him.

 

[Midnightfright]

Re: Re:

People don't seem to get this unfortunate fact: you can't attack if you're on the limit merely holding on. The Sky-doms are a level above, and whatever chess you play can't transcend physiology.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vincenzo-nibali-it-was-impossible-to-attack/

Maybe Quintana can do something. Maybe.

Maybe riders were on their limits toward the top of the final climb, but earlier? Surely not. I don't know why people don't at least try to break up the Sky rhythm earlier in stages more often. Sacrifice someone to hit them hard for a couple of ks and at least drop Rowe and Castroviejo rather than letting them lead the peloton up HC/cat 1 climbs.

History shows suicidal attacks won't beat the sky train, but still the lack of imagination teams show baffles me. What's the point of even having climbers as domestiques if you're just going to let sky set the pace anyway? You may as well use them for something.

I think the cautious attitude from the other GC hopefuls is a mixture overvaluing a top 5/10 finish and the mental hold years of Sky shutting down these attacks

 

[dacooley]

I would like to see a team take a chance using a different strategy to beat the sky train. At the moment it’s like watching FW and everyone thinking they can beat Valverde in a uphill sprint. Sure it can happen but the odds are not in your favour.

I would love to see a team send 2 riders in the break. Then once break has got enough time put a couple riders on the front and ride a very inconsistent tempo. Ride an impossible pace for 5-10mins, then just literally come to a stop. Ride a slow pace then speed it up again. Effectively a team like sky like to ride a constant tempo force them to not be able to ride the way they want. If nothing else tire Froome out. If sky show weakness you have 2 riders up the road who have had a “easier” ride who you can use.

It probably wouldn’t work but at least do something different. Holding onto the sky train and hoping to attack with 2-3km to go is not going to work.

No other team than Sky has the depth to send 2 useful doms to break + have other 2-3 guys driving inconsistent tempo with 5-10m of "impossible" tempo in between. What the people do not understand here is that i.e. Rowe and Castro would be top 2-3 mountains doms in any other team in this race in their current shape.

Thinking about it, maybe the reduction to 8 riders per team worked in Sky's favor though the intention was probably different. They have luxury problem that none other team has with world class all-rounders in every terrain. Don't think any other team has the same problem and had to make compromises with TTT and Cobbles in mind.

Would they though? Castroviejo is a decent enough climber, but Rowe?? Reminds me more of 2012 when Cavendish was pacing the peloton up cat 1 climbs and everyone just let him.

and yet some fans sincerely thought Sky could easily occupy GC top-20 with the entire squad, cav included. no need to exaggerate what row was doing. the tempo set at glierès was laughable. it was especially noticeable, when nibs was coming back in the peloton, climbing twice as fast as the front of the bunch did.

real issue is that Sky hired so many top-end riders and trained them to push steady watts so tremendously, that others are completely confused and don't what to do. all the rest teams seem to be terribly staffed to shred race into the pieces.
Movistar: Soler seems to be done, Amador is more or less on his regular level, but what's the use of it, while he gets dropped earlier than Kwiatkowski? Valverde as always obsessed with sneaking away some stage win and finishing at top-10, landa and quintana keep up sharing team leadership, keeping a low profile.
Ag2r: Gallopin and Frank are cooked, Vuillermoz abandoned, Latour thinks about nothing but holding on with the peloton as long as possible to win white jersey.
Bahrain: Pellizzo is nowhere near last year's level, Gorka is more of a puncheur, Ion is more of a time trialist, Pozzo is decent, but I'm not sure pulling 1-2 kms at infernal pace is climbing work he is well suited to.

in nutshell, there is no team who might force even kwiatkowski to drop, thus far. The only squad who could do it easily is movistar, but they have zero unity and definiteness with a team leader.

 

[movingtarget]

I have no doubts that the Sky team are strong enough. For me it's simply about Froome's legs as the race goes on and Thomas is still an unknown quantity over three weeks. Of course it will help Thomas if he can avoid his usual issues. i don't see Froome attacking at all at the moment, neither of them have to. It's up to the others to take the race to Sky. something they usually have trouble doing. See if this year is any different.Dumoulin also won't waste energy and he knows how to ride in the mountains without going into the red. I see little point in Movistar holding back on this stage with only three more MTFs to follow and one is a very short stage.

 

[Finn84]

Talking about final climb and yesterday's quotes. At least there are more hairpins towards the top towards La Rosière, so the possible headwind won't be that big factor for the whole time. The same will apply to Alpe D'Huez of course.

 

[bambino]

I would like to see a team take a chance using a different strategy to beat the sky train. At the moment it’s like watching FW and everyone thinking they can beat Valverde in a uphill sprint. Sure it can happen but the odds are not in your favour.

I would love to see a team send 2 riders in the break. Then once break has got enough time put a couple riders on the front and ride a very inconsistent tempo. Ride an impossible pace for 5-10mins, then just literally come to a stop. Ride a slow pace then speed it up again. Effectively a team like sky like to ride a constant tempo force them to not be able to ride the way they want. If nothing else tire Froome out. If sky show weakness you have 2 riders up the road who have had a “easier” ride who you can use.

It probably wouldn’t work but at least do something different. Holding onto the sky train and hoping to attack with 2-3km to go is not going to work.

No other team than Sky has the depth to send 2 useful doms to break + have other 2-3 guys driving inconsistent tempo with 5-10m of "impossible" tempo in between. What the people do not understand here is that i.e. Rowe and Castro would be top 2-3 mountains doms in any other team in this race in their current shape.

Thinking about it, maybe the reduction to 8 riders per team worked in Sky's favor though the intention was probably different. They have luxury problem that none other team has with world class all-rounders in every terrain. Don't think any other team has the same problem and had to make compromises with TTT and Cobbles in mind.

Would they though? Castroviejo is a decent enough climber, but Rowe?? Reminds me more of 2012 when Cavendish was pacing the peloton up cat 1 climbs and everyone just let him.

Castro at least is, as he has been training all season long for climbing with Sky's program. Seems about par with i.e. Ion Izaguirre. And even if they are not, dropping those 2 will probably cost any other team two of their top doms early in the race while Sky would still be there with 4 doms who would probably be the most important mountain doms in any other team (maybe save Moscon). And of course Froome and Thomas on top. The math doesn't really work to justify other teams burning their top mountain doms early.

Only team that could do something is obviously Movistar, but that requires burning at least one of their leaders. Amador and Soler could probably get rid of Castro, Rowe and Moscon while killing themselves. But after that one of the Three Amigos has to sacrifice himself to drop Kwiat, Poels and Bernal. And I'm not sure they are able/willing to do that as long as they are all part of overall game. And to be honest, I don't see Valverde being even capable to it as he has never been really famous on driving the bunch in infernous pace up the mountains. Not his cup of tea.

 

[Bolder]

I was crushed that yesterday's stage was such a bust. I really thought that Movistar would try something on Gliere. With that in mind, I'm not optimistic at all for today, given that that AdH is coming up.
On the plus side, I've ridden much of this stage and it's a good one.

 

[del1962]

Re:

I was crushed that yesterday's stage was such a bust. I really thought that Movistar would try something on Gliere. With that in mind, I'm not optimistic at all for today, given that that AdH is coming up.
On the plus side, I've ridden much of this stage and it's a good one.

Why would anyone try something on Gilere?

 

[YavorD]

Not really related to this stage but Kruijswijk might be a dark horse for a top 5. He has a great recovery and currently just 30-ish seconds behind the third - Valverde.

 

[Salvarani]

A few people saying other teams and riders should just do something, attack or find some new tactic but at the end of the day you gotta have legs to do it also. You cant just do it.

If Froome dont have the legs and cracks or the Froome/Thomas "rivalry" will force their hand to attack each other... only then will we have a race.

Pointless to attack if the pace is so high that you will be the only one losing with attacking. If you are in the group to finish line at least you live to fight another day. You probably only get 1-2 chance to really take time on your rivals and when opportunity arrives better go for it. Every mountain stage have never been guns blazing on every stage. We saw people lose time yesterday and probably will see the same today. It is also an endurance and recovery thing that often gets to every rider sooner or later... many stages left to do something.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Hoping that Thomas fades a bit which means Valverde will be in the maillot jaune. Long time, no see.