Le Tour 2018 stage 11: Albertville > La Rosière 108,5 km

[AlexNYC]

TD has to be considered a threat regardless of the Giro. I can see him hanging on for dear life in the mountains, on the verge of cracking even, only to demolish everyone in the ITT.

 

[Singer01]

Dumoulin can follow the indurain footprint for BTB grand tours, follow in the mountains and raise hell in the TT. If he had previously failed to back up grand tours i would understand the cynicism, but this is his first attempt, he can succeed until proven otherwise.

 

[fuiers]

Riders I wish would show up today: Roglic, Barquil and Movistar trio.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

People don't seem to get this unfortunate fact: you can't attack if you're on the limit merely holding on. The Sky-doms are a level above, and whatever chess you play can't transcend physiology.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vincenzo-nibali-it-was-impossible-to-attack/

Maybe Quintana can do something. Maybe.

When you have Valverde, Landa, and Quintana in the same team you CAN break the sky train. You just have to have the do or die mentality. They will not achieve success if they’re all trying to top 10, but it’s more than doable if they all rally behind one leader.

The only shot they have is when they don't rally behind one leader. Wait for the final climb (but start early) generally speaking (not necesserally this stage since it's so short) and attack alternately. Froome will only have two domestiques left, and he'll burn through them fast. Sky will need to respond since the 3 Movistars are well placed in the GC. That way they can single out Froome. If they are better than Froome's domestiques, then the other two should be able to hang on while the third one is on the attack. Then it's up to Froome to close the gap, and when he does, another one can attack. He can't afford to let them go, since they are all up there in the GC.

As soon as they start working for one leader as you propose, is when it gets easier for Sky, since they only have to keep an eye on one guy. If that guy has a bad day, or a puncture or a crash, it's all over.

No I agree with you. Your suggestion would lead to one or two of the Movistar riders losing time in the end. If they took turns pouring themselves out, someone is going to pop. But that has to be okay because that’s what team efforts should look like...at least at times. After that they would be able to establish a leader.

 

[bambino]

Re:

Dumoulin can follow the indurain footprint for BTB grand tours, follow in the mountains and raise hell in the TT. If he had previously failed to back up grand tours i would understand the cynicism, but this is his first attempt, he can succeed until proven otherwise.

Conservative racing though will not win him the Tour at the moment, as long as Thomas is in the position he is. Thomas is never ever going to lose 1m20s to Dumoulin in 31km hilly ITT at the end of the Tour. Thomas is really the wild card in play as long as he can/is allowed to stay with the rest. I really hope he is allowed to have his own race until the end, as in that case we might actually see one of the most interesting Tour for a while. Even Froome is currently losing loud and clear to his team mate unless he can make time on him in the mountains.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

People don't seem to get this unfortunate fact: you can't attack if you're on the limit merely holding on. The Sky-doms are a level above, and whatever chess you play can't transcend physiology.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/vincenzo-nibali-it-was-impossible-to-attack/

Maybe Quintana can do something. Maybe.

When you have Valverde, Landa, and Quintana in the same team you CAN break the sky train. You just have to have the do or die mentality. They will not achieve success if they’re all trying to top 10, but it’s more than doable if they all rally behind one leader.

The only shot they have is when they don't rally behind one leader. Wait for the final climb (but start early) generally speaking (not necesserally this stage since it's so short) and attack alternately. Froome will only have two domestiques left, and he'll burn through them fast. Sky will need to respond since the 3 Movistars are well placed in the GC. That way they can single out Froome. If they are better than Froome's domestiques, then the other two should be able to hang on while the third one is on the attack. Then it's up to Froome to close the gap, and when he does, another one can attack. He can't afford to let them go, since they are all up there in the GC.

As soon as they start working for one leader as you propose, is when it gets easier for Sky, since they only have to keep an eye on one guy. If that guy has a bad day, or a puncture or a crash, it's all over.

No I agree with you. Your suggestion would lead to one or two of the Movistar riders losing time in the end. If they took turns pouring themselves out, someone is going to pop. But that has to be okay because that’s what team efforts should look like...at least at times. After that they would be able to establish a leader.

And this is the key. I don't think - given the tempo Sky doms can ride - that all three Movi leaders can attack that tempo continuously and still avoid popping one of themselves. As long as they all ride with GC in mind, they will not have the courage/stamina to go for all out attack against Sky. The three leaders is their immense strength, but also weakness if they are not willing to sacrifice any of them.

 

[Robert5091]

Yep, hope Quintana goes on the Col de Pré to stir things up. Nibs? Will he send Pozzo up the road?

 

[Lequack]

Re: Re:

Even Froome is currently losing loud and clear to his team mate unless he can make time on him in the mountains.

There is no Froome, there is only Sky.

 

[bambino]

Re: Re:

Even Froome is currently losing loud and clear to his team mate unless he can make time on him in the mountains.

There is no Froome, there is only Sky.

I truly hope so! Though suspicious about it

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Froome to attack. He needs time on Roglic and Dumo after all. Most likely option: D. Martin and Valverde to grab a few seconds at the finish line before a 15 man group.

I could see that, although if Thomas is still with him, that could trigger a pretty interesting Sky-on-Sky battle. Would CF really attack in that case? I doubt it. This is where the team dynamics at Sky/Movistar are (hopefully) going to add a little spice.

He will attack precisely because of that! Sooner he eliminates Thomas from the GC, better for him, he gets one more dom de luxe

 

[rghysens]

A stage shorter than the average Remco Evenepoel solo. Shouldn't we give him a special dispensation?

 

[ice&fire]

Does anyone remember Arcalis 2009? It just took a timid acceleration from Evans for Contador to counterattack, go full gas without looking back and overtake his teammate in GC. Can Froome take one minute on Thomas in La Rosiere? Or should he wait till tomorrow and ride Alpe d'Huez like Sastre?

 

[Matteo.]

Re:

Does anyone remember Arcalis 2009? It just took a timid acceleration from Evans for Contador to counterattack, go full gas without looking back and overtake his teammate in GC. Can Froome take one minute on Thomas in La Rosiere? Or should he wait till tomorrow and ride Alpe d'Huez like Sastre?

in my opinion froome will do nothing in the Alps. On the contrary, he will try to lose as little as possible

 

[Frankschleck]

Tejay to win. Van Avermaent to hold the jersey.

 

[Finn84]

Froome far back in the honorary start.

 

[rick james]

Re:

Froome far back in the honorary start.

yo yo time

 

[rick james]

And they are off

 

[tobydawq]

I think Sagan will win the points classification.

 

[bob.a.feet]

I think the Sky train is good for Tommy D. The high pace preventing attacks makes it slightly easier for him to just hang on

 

[fuiers]

Is this the today when Barquil starts to chase the Polka dot yersey?

 

[sir fly]

Looks interesting with the large group of followers.

 

[Laplaz]

Like 50 man attacked until now already

 

[Finn84]

Re:

Like 50 man attacked until now already

"Soon we can say that Team Sky has been dropped by the peloton", said the Finnish expert.

 

[rick james]

Re:

Tejay to win. Van Avermaent to hold the jersey.

not a hope in hell

 

[Aimar16]

Re:

I think Sagan will win the points classification.

Bold prediction but it is not impossible for him. We'll see.