Le Tour 2018 stage 16:Carcassonne - Bagnères-de-Luchon 218km

Mar 29, 2016
6,974
2
9,485
After the second rest day, we have stage 16 -
stage-16-profile.jpg


The first half of the route is played out on flat to rolling roads. The climbers stretch the legs on the Côte de Fanjeaux (2.4 kilometres at 4.9%) and Côte de Pamiers (2.3 kilometres at 5.8%), although attackers undoubtedly will want to do more than just stretch the legs – they want to go clear on the Fanjeaux. The hill is crested at kilometre 25, so it is a perfect place to break away.

The route continues in undulating fashion and after 124 kilometres the riders enter a long false flat, which is getting steeper along the way until Col de Portet d’Aspet is crested at kilometre 155.5. The actual climb is 5.4 kilometres at 7.1% with its steepest section approximately 1 kilometre before the top.

On descent the riders pass the monument in honour of Fabio Casartelli, who died in a crash on the descent of the Portet d’Aspet in the 1995 Tour de France. Back in the valley the road immediately goes back up again, this time to head for the summit of the Col de Menté. This is a 6.9 kilometres climb at 8.1% with, early on, some intimidating double digit stretches.

A descent with a lot of hairpins, especially in the first part, takes the riders to the valley of the Garonne. Momentarily the Tour de France dips its toe into Spain and on rolling roads the route continues to the base of the Col du Portillon. The fairly regular closing climb is 8.3 kilometres at 7.1%.

The summit of the Portillon lies 10 kilometres before the finish. Fast descenders can take advantage as it’s almost all downhill after the top. Three hairpins in short succession with 5 kilometres out could be tricky – and on it goes on flying descent. The last kilometre is played out on the flat. The winner follows in the footsteps of Thomas Voeckler (2012), Michael Rogers (2014), and Chris Froome (2016).

That last victory was startling. People always thought of Froome as a poor descender, but when all GC-favourites reached the crest of the then last climb Peyresourde together, he dropped down like a rock and won the race 13 seconds ahead of his opponents.

stage-16-portet-d-aspet-mente.jpg


stage-16-col-du-portillon.jpg


Final 5 km -
stage-16-5km.jpg


Weather forecast - hot, 30 C.
 
Aug 13, 2011
7,881
12,032
23,180
Bardet to win on the descent while Thomas and Froome lose 30 seconds to Tom and Roglic.
 
Apr 16, 2009
17,599
6,854
28,180
Nothing happens. Not very hard. Should have made it harder in a prelude of the 65 km stage. The combo would mean a lot of carnage. Maybe still does, who knows.
 
Jul 18, 2011
1,776
1,866
13,680
Froome to test the rest on the last descent. Thomas to stay in yellow if he stays upright.
 
Sep 6, 2016
584
0
0
Breakaway day. Alaphilippe vs Barguil for the KOM. Sagan to attack because his green jersey lead isn’t yet secure :p
 
Aug 5, 2009
15,733
8,139
28,180
If there is going to be a danger stage for Thomas I think this is it. A long stage in the third week with some technical descents. Post rest day always messes up someone. Dumoulin and Froome look surprisingly good still after doing the Giro. Not a bad stage for Bardet to do something. Top four riders look solid at the moment. Moscon out for Sky will have some impact but they should be able to cover it and it looks like a good stage for a break.
 
Sep 1, 2010
1,536
391
11,180
Before knowing any possible DNSs for this stage, riders by team:

8: Bora, Cofidis, FDJ, Fortuneo, Mitchelton, UAE, Wanty
7: Bahrain, Direct Energie, EF Education, LottoNL, Movistar, Sky, Sunweb, Quick Step, Trek
6: Astana, BMC, Dimension Data
5: AG2R
4: Katusha, Lotto-Soudal
 
Mar 24, 2013
2,806
232
11,880
Re: Le Tour 2018 stage 16:Carcassonne - Bagnères-de-Luchon 2

One thing is sure. Bora will try to get Majka to break. The ideal stage for him to win from a break.
 
May 9, 2010
11,070
2,540
28,180
I think this stage is very badly designed. It's an obvious breakaway stage, but the flat start makes it a lot more random who's gonna make it into the break. Still, I'd expect strong teams like Quickstep, Scott and Bora to make sure that Alaphilippe, Yates and Majka gets into the break. Nieve will probably be there as well, and the winner should be one of these four with Yates being my favorite to take the stage win. Other breakaway artists we should/might see in the break include Ion Izagirre, Pozzovivo, Barguil, Caruso, De Gendt, Mollema, Calmejane, Soler, Navarro, Roland, Martinez and Fraile.
 
Aug 29, 2009
7,876
7,063
23,180
Re:

Durden93 said:
Breakaway day. Sagan to attack because his green jersey lead isn’t yet secure :p

yep, still 290 points on the table this week - and Kristoff is only 282 behind, so this is far from over :p
 
Jun 6, 2017
6,170
3,703
23,180
Re:

Hugo Koblet said:
I think this stage is very badly designed. It's an obvious breakaway stage, but the flat start makes it a lot more random who's gonna make it into the break. Still, I'd expect strong teams like Quickstep, Scott and Bora to make sure that Alaphilippe, Yates and Majka gets into the break. Nieve will probably be there as well, and the winner should be one of these four with Yates being my favorite to take the stage win. Other breakaway artists we should/might see in the break include Ion Izagirre, Pozzovivo, Barguil, Caruso, De Gendt, Mollema, Calmejane, Soler, Navarro, Roland, Martinez and Fraile.

I guess Valverde will want to be in that break too, one of his last chances for a stage, plus he could be useful if by some miracle Landa or Quintana drop the Sky train...
 
Apr 6, 2016
3,635
410
14,580
Re: Re:

del1962 said:
Laplaz said:
There is a high possibility of rain in the last hour, bad for G.

Why is rain bad for G, he has some of his best performances in rain
Slippery descents, and he's not the best descender. Dumo and Bardet will test him.