Liège-Bastogne-Liège 2021 (April 25th)

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Tadej Pogačar posted a six-hour recon of the Liège-Bastogne-Liège route on Strava yesterday after he and the rest of his UAE Team Emirates squad were not allowed to ride La Flèche Wallonne due to ‘false positive’ Covid-19 tests.

 
If they must keep Côte de la Roche-aux-faucons, I'd like Côte de Colonster afterwards. And with the former still in the finale, I don't think Côte des Forges does anything good.
In all honestly I am not that in love with RAF as the final climb, but it's fine enough for now. I really wish they'd make the race much harder before La Redoute.
 
In all honestly I am not that in love with RAF as the final climb, but it's fine enough for now. I really wish they'd make the race much harder before La Redoute.
Is that possible with using some goat tracks and extremely narrow roads?

Edit: You could of course add more climbs and increase the total amount of height meters, but I was thinking the last 40-50-60 km before Redoute. Is it possible to make this part significantly harder and create a bigger selection before Redoute?
 
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Is that possible with using some goat tracks and extremely narrow roads?

Edit: You could of course add more climbs and increase the total amount of height meters, but I was thinking the last 40-50-60 km before Redoute. Is it possible to make this part significantly harder and create a bigger selection before Redoute?
I'm fairly sure it should be. Now the hardest climbs in the Ardennes are quite some distance from Liege, but I think a bunch of the climbs there just aren't hard for a very even leveled peloton anymore.
 
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I'm fairly sure it should be. Now the hardest climbs in the Ardennes are quite some distance from Liege, but I think a bunch of the climbs there just aren't hard for a very even leveled peloton anymore.
Nor are the climbs in the Flemish classics or Amstel, but they are hard enough. The problem with Liège is first and foremost incentive. If they don't need to use the terrain, they won't.
 
Nor are the climbs in the Flemish classics or Amstel, but they are hard enough. The problem with Liège is first and foremost incentive. If they don't need to use the terrain, they won't.
Yes and no. Flemish hills are very dissimilar in that they they naturally go way above threshold or a short amount and they're so short top riders can attack multiple times on them without other riders having much of an advantage by sitting back. Climbs are so short and explosive it really hurts a chase.

Meanwhile in Liege if Roglic were to go balls deep on La Redoute he'd get 25s and he'd then have 10 domestiques on his ass while having burnt most of his matches on La Redoute alone.

We see in Tirreno the crazy action you can get if the hills are actually super hard, compared to Liege where you have 20 to 40 guys within a minute most years. I would love to remove the incentive to wait for RaF, and give the better climbers a real launching pad further away
 
Meanwhile in Liege if Roglic were to go balls deep on La Redoute he'd get 25s and he'd then have 10 domestiques on his ass while having burnt most of his matches on La Redoute alone.
Sure. If he is the only one who attacks there and the peloton cooperate. Same with RaF (and Cauberg). But when a group (3-5) of the strongest riders go, they can stay away whether it's with 10 or 20 km to go.

What we actually see in such a scenario is that the chasing doms are no more numerous than the attackers and far weaker, and that when the chase is between captains, they rarely cooperate very well (and they too are weaker than the attackers, otherwise they would have been up front).
 
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Sure. If he is the only one who attacks there and the peloton cooperate. Same with RaF (and Cauberg). But when a group (3-5) of the strongest riders go, they can stay away whether it's with 10 or 20 km to go.

What we actually see in such a scenario is that the chasing doms are no more numerous than the attackers and far weaker, and that when the chase is between captains, they rarely cooperate very well (and they too are weaker than the attackers, otherwise they would have been up front).
But the strongest won't really follow because they too know RaF is yet to come. And tbh the best part about the RaF is the false flat after. Obviously it's loads better than the old Ans finish but now you're still sort of stuck with a wait till the last climb, and I don't really love the run in into Liegeo cause it's mostly downhill so there's not much room for attacks or tactical play there. If I get to choose and go insane I'd ditch Maquisard for Targnon and then use only smaller hills after La Redoute.

Riders rarely make the race unless they have to, and if they do it's generally aided by teammates disturbing the chase behind like in Lombardia 2018.
 
We see in Tirreno the crazy action you can get if the hills are actually super hard, compared to Liege where you have 20 to 40 guys within a minute most years. I would love to remove the incentive to wait for RaF, and give the better climbers a real launching pad further away
Roche-Facons is rated as one toughest climbs in Ardennes. I don't know if there exists many more climbs that could make it easy to remove this and expect more long range attacks. If there was a really tough climb close to Redoute, it would be easier. Redoute + followed or preceeded by climb in immidiate vicinity followed by 2-3 easier after climbs after Redoute for the last 30 kms.
 
Even at the hardest hills in Amstel like Eyser and Keuten, you can quickly recover to make multiple attacks later in the race.

I feel like the longer Liege hills are more similar to a climbing effort. The ability to make an unspontaneous acceleration becomes less of an issue. You simply don't have many shots in the tank.
 
Roche-Facons is rated as one toughest climbs in Ardennes. I don't know if there exists many more climbs that could make it easy to remove this and expect more long range attacks. If there was a really tough climb close to Redoute, it would be easier. Redoute + followed or preceeded by climb in immidiate vicinity followed by 2-3 easier after climbs after Redoute for the last 30 kms.
There's Col de Targnon closeby but it's basically a goat track and I don't know how ridiculous the road is. The top of that is basically the côte du desnie which they cut short this year.

 
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You could add Sart-Tilman (again) after the RaF for a more action the final.

It's not a hard climb so I suppose the favorites will still make their big move on the Faucons. It could even be turned into a technical descent before reaching Liege. You have to have downhill skills in order to win LBL after all.
 
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I'm fine with the route.
Have there been any route of this race you haven't been fine with?
You could add Sart-Tilman (again) after the RaF for a more action the final.

It's not a hard climb so I suppose the favorites will still make their big move on the Faucons. It could even be turned into a technical descent before reaching Liege. You have to have downhill skills in order to win LBL after all.
Sart-Tilman is N663, I take it that it is the descent you propose, whereas Boulevard du Rectorat/de Colonster (N635) is Côte de Colonster.
 
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Yes and no. Flemish hills are very dissimilar in that they they naturally go way above threshold or a short amount and they're so short top riders can attack multiple times on them without other riders having much of an advantage by sitting back. Climbs are so short and explosive it really hurts a chase.

Meanwhile in Liege if Roglic were to go balls deep on La Redoute he'd get 25s and he'd then have 10 domestiques on his ass while having burnt most of his matches on La Redoute alone.

We see in Tirreno the crazy action you can get if the hills are actually super hard, compared to Liege where you have 20 to 40 guys within a minute most years. I would love to remove the incentive to wait for RaF, and give the better climbers a real launching pad further away
It would be interesting to see Roglic start his sprint with 25 km to go but I think he favours a shorter sprint.
 
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