Liège-Bastogne-Liège: April 28th, 2019

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

My stars:

*****Alaphilippe, Fuglsang
****Matthews, Kwiatkowski
***Nibali, Schachmann
**Gilbert, Bardet, Lambrecht
*Valverde, Vanendert, Wellens, Clarke

No stars for Jungels?

He isn't on the start list.

 

[Bardamu]

Dumoulin will finish 11th in this bike race.

 

[cellardoor]

Re: Re:

My stars:

*****Alaphilippe, Fuglsang
****Matthews, Kwiatkowski
***Nibali, Schachmann
**Gilbert, Bardet, Lambrecht
*Valverde, Vanendert, Wellens, Clarke

No stars for Jungels?

He isn't on the start list.

Thanks....surprised that he's not starting though.

 

[Max Rockatansky]

Re:

Random question. How often have they used Côte des Forges before? I think they had like 3 different variants between Redoute and RaF?

I just checked out the last race without the Ans finish.

It was a cold and rainy/snowy edition with 4 to 11 degrees. The winning move happend at Haute-Levée with over 70 kilometers to go. A group of eleven riders escaped: Argentin, Criquielion, Bruyneel, Sörensen, Lejarreta, Van Lancker, Roche, Alcala, Gaston, Konyshev, Indurain. So basically the strongest riders of the race. On La Redoute Argentin, Sörensen, Criquielion and Indurain attacked. They went on to sprint for the victory.

I can imagine a similar race situation on sunday with the strongest riders going on La Redoute and then attacking each other on Roche-aux-Faucons. Weather forecast is also basically the same like in 1991.

Last rider to win M-Srm and LBL the same year was Eddy Merchx in 1975. He also won RVV that year. But that's Eddy.

 

[DFA123]

Interesting to see how Movistar approach this. They've got a lot of climbing firepower with Quintana and Landa on the startlist - both of whom could be dangerous if still around by the time it gets to the last climb. With Valverde's form looking so dodgy, I think they might get a pretty free role which could help to make the race harder.

It'd be great to see a break of pure climbers going clear on the Redoute - the likes of Nibali, Landa, Bardet, Dumoulin - with the puncheurs having to try to chase them down.

 

[RedheadDane]

Re: Re:

My stars:

*****Alaphilippe, Fuglsang
****Matthews, Kwiatkowski
***Nibali, Schachmann
**Gilbert, Bardet, Lambrecht
*Valverde, Vanendert, Wellens, Clarke

No stars for Jungels?

He isn't on the start list.

Aren't you getting a little hung up on minor details here?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Random question. How often have they used Côte des Forges before? I think they had like 3 different variants between Redoute and RaF?

I just checked out the last race without the Ans finish.

It was a cold and rainy/snowy edition with 4 to 11 degrees. The winning move happend at Haute-Levée with over 70 kilometers to go. A group of eleven riders escaped: Argentin, Criquielion, Bruyneel, Sörensen, Lejarreta, Van Lancker, Roche, Alcala, Gaston, Konyshev, Indurain. So basically the strongest riders of the race. On La Redoute Argentin, Sörensen, Criquielion and Indurain attacked. They went on to sprint for the victory.

I can imagine a similar race situation on sunday with the strongest riders going on La Redoute and then attacking each other on Roche-aux-Faucons. Weather forecast is also basically the same like in 1991.

Last rider to win M-Srm and LBL the same year was Eddy Merchx in 1975. He also won RVV that year. But that's Eddy.

My main problem is

Why would you attack on La Redoute?

 

[Oliver]

Cote des Forges, Last time I was there I had some troubles after a lot of tough hills :lol: :razz:
But for Pro riders nothing special

It will be bad weather , raind, windy and max 12 degrees.

I hope the shark will swim!

 

[Gigs_98]

Re: Re:

Random question. How often have they used Côte des Forges before? I think they had like 3 different variants between Redoute and RaF?

I just checked out the last race without the Ans finish.

It was a cold and rainy/snowy edition with 4 to 11 degrees. The winning move happend at Haute-Levée with over 70 kilometers to go. A group of eleven riders escaped: Argentin, Criquielion, Bruyneel, Sörensen, Lejarreta, Van Lancker, Roche, Alcala, Gaston, Konyshev, Indurain. So basically the strongest riders of the race. On La Redoute Argentin, Sörensen, Criquielion and Indurain attacked. They went on to sprint for the victory.

I can imagine a similar race situation on sunday with the strongest riders going on La Redoute and then attacking each other on Roche-aux-Faucons. Weather forecast is also basically the same like in 1991.

Last rider to win M-Srm and LBL the same year was Eddy Merchx in 1975. He also won RVV that year. But that's Eddy.

My main problem is

Why would you attack on La Redoute?

Exactly. This might very well be raced exactly the same way as in previous years just that everyone will go günstig blazing on RaF. La Redoute will probably be ridden more aggressively than in previous years but of the favorites Nibali is possibly the only one I can see attacking there. Hopefully I'm underrating the impact of the route change but compared to amstel where they didn't just remove the final climb but also made sure the final hard climb is far from the finish, this route change isn't as big of a deal. Had they changed the finale and swapped RaF with colonster, that would have been comparable to amstel

 

[Valanga]

Re: Re:

Random question. How often have they used Côte des Forges before? I think they had like 3 different variants between Redoute and RaF?

I just checked out the last race without the Ans finish.

It was a cold and rainy/snowy edition with 4 to 11 degrees. The winning move happend at Haute-Levée with over 70 kilometers to go. A group of eleven riders escaped: Argentin, Criquielion, Bruyneel, Sörensen, Lejarreta, Van Lancker, Roche, Alcala, Gaston, Konyshev, Indurain. So basically the strongest riders of the race. On La Redoute Argentin, Sörensen, Criquielion and Indurain attacked. They went on to sprint for the victory.

I can imagine a similar race situation on sunday with the strongest riders going on La Redoute and then attacking each other on Roche-aux-Faucons. Weather forecast is also basically the same like in 1991.

Last rider to win M-Srm and LBL the same year was Eddy Merchx in 1975. He also won RVV that year. But that's Eddy.

My main problem is

Why would you attack on La Redoute?

Exactly. This might very well be raced exactly the same way as in previous years just that everyone will go günstig blazing on RaF. La Redoute will probably be ridden more aggressively than in previous years but of the favorites Nibali is possibly the only one I can see attacking there. Hopefully I'm underrating the impact of the route change but compared to amstel where they didn't just remove the final climb but also made sure the final hard climb is far from the finish, this route change isn't as big of a deal. Had they changed the finale and swapped RaF with colonster, that would have been comparable to amstel

If you're Wellens, you're not going to be able to follow Allaphilippe and Fuglsang on RaF.
So attack on La Redoute, take a little head start on La Roche so you are with those 2 at the top. After that it's only downhill and flat so they'll not be able to drop you that easily. And then *boom* you still loose in the sprint! But at least you tried something ;-)

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

Random question. How often have they used Côte des Forges before? I think they had like 3 different variants between Redoute and RaF?

I just checked out the last race without the Ans finish.

It was a cold and rainy/snowy edition with 4 to 11 degrees. The winning move happend at Haute-Levée with over 70 kilometers to go. A group of eleven riders escaped: Argentin, Criquielion, Bruyneel, Sörensen, Lejarreta, Van Lancker, Roche, Alcala, Gaston, Konyshev, Indurain. So basically the strongest riders of the race. On La Redoute Argentin, Sörensen, Criquielion and Indurain attacked. They went on to sprint for the victory.

I can imagine a similar race situation on sunday with the strongest riders going on La Redoute and then attacking each other on Roche-aux-Faucons. Weather forecast is also basically the same like in 1991.

Last rider to win M-Srm and LBL the same year was Eddy Merchx in 1975. He also won RVV that year. But that's Eddy.

My main problem is

Why would you attack on La Redoute?

Exactly. This might very well be raced exactly the same way as in previous years just that everyone will go günstig blazing on RaF. La Redoute will probably be ridden more aggressively than in previous years but of the favorites Nibali is possibly the only one I can see attacking there. Hopefully I'm underrating the impact of the route change but compared to amstel where they didn't just remove the final climb but also made sure the final hard climb is far from the finish, this route change isn't as big of a deal. Had they changed the finale and swapped RaF with colonster, that would have been comparable to amstel

RaF wasn't even raced that aggressively often, but at least that will change. It's a weird hill cause you can't really kill yourself to get to the top because of the false flat after it.

At least now even the top riders who could've waited for St Nicolas and Ans will be forced to go on the RaF, which effectively makes it a 20km final? Which reminds me a little bit about the recent Ronde van Vlaanderen with everyone waiting for the last Kwaremont or trying to anticipate that bottleneck.

 

[liamito]

Re:

Interesting to see how Movistar approach this. They've got a lot of climbing firepower with Quintana and Landa on the startlist

No Quintana.

 

[happytramp]

Re:

My stars:

*****Alaphilippe, Fuglsang
****Matthews, Kwiatkowski
***Nibali, Schachmann
**Gilbert, Bardet, Lambrecht
*Valverde, Vanendert, Wellens, Clarke

So I assume Dan martin is either Injured or has withdrawn from the race?

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Random question. How often have they used Côte des Forges before? I think they had like 3 different variants between Redoute and RaF?

I just checked out the last race without the Ans finish.

It was a cold and rainy/snowy edition with 4 to 11 degrees. The winning move happend at Haute-Levée with over 70 kilometers to go. A group of eleven riders escaped: Argentin, Criquielion, Bruyneel, Sörensen, Lejarreta, Van Lancker, Roche, Alcala, Gaston, Konyshev, Indurain. So basically the strongest riders of the race. On La Redoute Argentin, Sörensen, Criquielion and Indurain attacked. They went on to sprint for the victory.

I can imagine a similar race situation on sunday with the strongest riders going on La Redoute and then attacking each other on Roche-aux-Faucons. Weather forecast is also basically the same like in 1991.

Last rider to win M-Srm and LBL the same year was Eddy Merchx in 1975. He also won RVV that year. But that's Eddy.

My main problem is

Why would you attack on La Redoute?

And why wouldn't a guy like Fuglsang, Nibali or Bardet attack on La Redoute? That will split the race into pieces, and make a race hard for faster finishers like Ala, Bala, Kwia, Martin, or even Matthews and GVA. I wouldn't bank on dropping them all on RaF. In fact their main concern is to tire Alaphilippe out, and to that you need a hard race. If you're waiting for the last climb there's a big chance that he won't drop, and if Fuglsang is willing to try his chance again in the sprint against him.., then good luck.

 

[movingtarget]

i think Kwia has a shot at this. Fuglsang and Ala will be there of course as they have been up the front regularly. Would like to say Matthews but I still have some doubts and I think Amstel is a better race for him. He has been riding well without making the podium so who knows. Valverde seems to be off his game at the moment. More open race than Fleche. Another podium by Fuglsang would be frustrating. Like to see him win one.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Re: Re:

My stars:

*****Alaphilippe, Fuglsang
****Matthews, Kwiatkowski
***Nibali, Schachmann
**Gilbert, Bardet, Lambrecht
*Valverde, Vanendert, Wellens, Clarke

So I assume Dan martin is either Injured or has withdrawn from the race?

Or he was dropped early in the Flèche?

 

[Red Rick]

I think Dumoulin could be a danger if he's on a good day.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I think Dumoulin could be a danger if he's on a good day.

He's certainly a danger to just miss the decisive move, and then do a valiant solo chase back to the lead group, but be too tired and easily get distanced in the sprint.

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

I think Dumoulin could be a danger if he's on a good day.

He's certainly a danger to just miss the decisive move, and then do a valiant solo chase back to the lead group, but be too tired and easily get distanced in the sprint.

That would be a very Dumoulin thing to do. I was amazed he made those groups at both the Worlds and MSR though, the former because he wasn't at his best anymore and the former because he never stops talking about how he's not explosive anymore

 

[Laplaz]

I can't see Dumo creating a gap, and even less to win a reduced sprint. Honestly I don't know where he could win this race...

 

[Red Rick]

Dumoulin would have to sneak away. Think he has a better shot to win this than guys like Bardet or Wellens

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I can't see Dumo creating a gap, and even less to win a reduced sprint. Honestly I don't know where he could win this race...

He'll have to try something like what Jungels did last year. The problem is that it wouldn't be exactly the same situation: the course has changed, he would have Quickstep chasing him down and he's probably more marked than Jungels was. But it's still not impossible.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

https://www.cyclingstage.com/liege-bastogne-liege-2019/favourites-lbl-2019/

I don't know if I should laugh or not of this favourite ranking. It's the same site that had Mohoric as a 5 star favourite for MSR (not that Mohoric didn't impact that race, but still).

 

[Rollthedice]

Alejandro Valverde no votes. What's the world coming to?

 

[glassmoon]

Hopefully other.