Lo Squalo Dello Stretto discussion thread

[karlboss]

Cancellara could win LBL, I have no doubt in my mind. However as with any victory 3 things need to align, strength, tactics, luck. His strength up and and down over these types of hills, would have to be similar probably better than Iglinsky's, and tactically he'd try something similar to well, I think on this type of finish he could even hang around for the sprint. As far as luck goes when your name is Cancellara and your strength is well known, different things happen when you try to close a break, maybe Rodriguez doesn't work with you , maybe the chasers behind work harder to get to your wheel, etc. Could win, doesn't mean would.

I'd like to see what he could do riding for a result. From RV to LBL is 3 weeks, same as a GT, should be able hold a peak for about that. Now to get off a team with the Schlecks, and does he even want to win Liege?

NIbali rocks.

 

[Kwibus]

I'll take that as a compliment

Your not Gilbert. Your his fan. Your not the one getting the compliment

 

[will10]

Check Iglinskiy's results on steep Tirreno hills... he's better suited to this stuff than Spartacus.

Remind me where Cancellara rode away in Strade Bianche?
Remind me where Cancellara rode away in Flanders 2010?



I think Cancellara could potentially win LBL. It would have to be an edition like this year, quite passively raced but just hard enough that not many of the favourites have teammates. Is it really so unrealistic to see Cancellara in a group of 15 at the top of Roche aux Faucons and pulling off a move much like Nibali's?

 

[Carols]

I think Cancellara could potentially win LBL. It would have to be an edition like this year, quite passively raced but just hard enough that not many of the favourites have teammates. Is it really so unrealistic to see Cancellara in a group of 15 at the top of Roche aux Faucons and pulling off a move much like Nibali's?

I agree he could potentially win LBL....but unlike The Shark he will never be a Grand Tour winner

Go Shark!!!!

 

[theyoungest]

Remind me where Cancellara rode away in Strade Bianche?
Remind me where Cancellara rode away in Flanders 2010?

I know Cancellara can handle hills, but I also know that in Tirreno, even when he won it, he's hardly the strongest on the really punchy hills. The Muur is a cobbled hill, and he rode against Boonen. You can't compare that at all with the climbs in Liege, you think Andy Schleck can win the Tour of Flanders?

 

[will10]

I know Cancellara can handle hills, but I also know that in Tirreno, even when he won it, he's hardly the strongest on the really punchy hills. The Muur is a cobbled hill, and he rode against Boonen. You can't compare that at all with the climbs in Liege, you think Andy Schleck can win the Tour of Flanders?

Obviously not.

You don't have to be the strongest to win Liege. Cancellara has shown before that he can win from far out, and don't get me wrong - that's the only way he could win Liege. But we've seen many winners here who weren't necessarily the strongest but just pre-empted the favourites and held onto whatever gap they were afforded. I'm thinking Iglinskiy/Nibali yesterday, both years Vino won Liege, even when Frank Schleck won Amstel etc.

 

[Lanark]

I know Cancellara can handle hills, but I also know that in Tirreno, even when he won it, he's hardly the strongest on the really punchy hills. The Muur is a cobbled hill, and he rode against Boonen. You can't compare that at all with the climbs in Liege, you think Andy Schleck can win the Tour of Flanders?

I do think that Andy Schleck (and riders like him, guys like Valverde etc.) can win the Ronde van Vlaanderen. Why not? Gilbert can. Guys like Voeckler, Iglinsky, Leukemans and Van Avermaet can combine good results in Vlaanderen with good results in Liège, and those guys don't have 10% of the talent of Schleck (which he unfortunately doesn't seem to use ).

The best Cancellara has ever been on non-cobbled climbs was at the 2009 world championship, he was ridiculously strong there. But it's unlikely he'll ever have that shape at the start of Liège (and even then everything would have to work in his favour to win).

 

[El Pistolero]

Your not Gilbert. Your his fan. Your not the one getting the compliment

I didn't mean it that way mierenneuker.

 

[El Pistolero]

I do think that Andy Schleck (and riders like him, guys like Valverde etc.) can win the Ronde van Vlaanderen. Why not? Gilbert can. Guys like Voeckler, Iglinsky, Leukemans and Van Avermaet can combine good results in Vlaanderen with good results in Liège, and those guys don't have 10% of the talent of Schleck (which he unfortunately doesn't seem to use ).

The best Cancellara has ever been on non-cobbled climbs was at the 2009 world championship, he was ridiculously strong there. But it's unlikely he'll ever have that shape at the start of Liège (and even then everything would have to work in his favour to win).

Hahaha, Andy and Valverde could never win the Ronde. Too much nervous racing going on there. Just look at how Valverde sucks at the Amstel Gold race. AGR compares the best with the Ronde. And there's 13km of flat road after the final hill. No way Andy can make that solo against the wind.

Guys like Voeckler, Iglinsky, Leukemans and Van Avermaet have never come close to winning the Ronde. Without his crash Voeckler could have probably won this year's edition of LBL, but he couldn't follow Pozzato and Boonen on the Oude Kwaremont.

In case you didn't notice, Gilbert is twice the one day racer Andy is.

 

[SafeBet]

I doubt you'll get anyone to agree that was the best form of Wiggins' career.

It's his sole appearence on a GT podium though.
I checked back TT results from his 4th place in the 2009 TdF, which you could argue was his best form of his career. Nibali lost 1.20 in a 40km TT.

On the previous stage up La Covatilla Nibali finished 6th, along with the likes of Menchov, Poels, Taaramae, so he clearly was in pretty good form at that point of the race.

Being dropped by Froome and Wiggo (apparently not even in best form) on a mountain is a pretty good form for Nibali?
Arguable.


And btw I'm not saying Nibali has more chances to podium TdF than Wiggo.
I just have the feeling Wiggins TT skills are somehow overrated or Nibali's TT skills underrated.
I doubt Wiggo can put more than 3 minutes between him and Nibbles in the 96km of TT we'll see in Le Tour.

 

[Lanark]

Hahaha, Andy and Valverde could never win the Ronde. Too much nervous racing going on there. Just look at how Valverde sucks at the Amstel Gold race. AGR compares the best with the Ronde. And there's 13km of flat road after the final hill. No way Andy can make that solo against the wind.

Andy didn't suck at the Gold Race last year, a race just as nervous as the Ronde.

The final of the Ronde being flat only makes it easier to do a solo, and wind isn't a constant factor. That's all tangential. Guys like Sagan and Gilbert show that it doesn't take any special set of skills to do a good Vlaanderen that isn't tested in a race like the Gold Race or Liège (outside maybe the ultra-lightweight guys like Rodriguez, but he usually sucks in Amstel and Liège anyway).

Guys like Voeckler, Iglinsky, Leukemans and Van Avermaet have never come close to winning the Ronde. Without his crash Voeckler could have probably won this year's edition of LBL, but he couldn't follow Pozzato and Boonen on the Oude Kwaremont.

In case you didn't notice, Gilbert is twice the one day racer Andy is.

No, they haven't come close to winning the Ronde, and untill two days ago, neither did anyone of them come close to winning Amstel or Liège.

Gilberts palmares is more than twice as good as Andy's (although his 2009 LBL is still on of the most impressive one-day performances by anyone in the peloton), but that doesn't mean Andy can't win the Ronde. Cobbles really aren't that remarkably different from tarmac hills (which the Ronde van Vlaandere features plenty as well).

 

[therhodeo]

Cobbles really aren't that remarkably different from tarmac hills (which the Ronde van Vlaandere features plenty as well).

Which is why so many climbers win at Flanders.

 

[Froome19]

I do think that Andy Schleck (and riders like him, guys like Valverde etc.) can win the Ronde van Vlaanderen. Why not? Gilbert can. Guys like Voeckler, Iglinsky, Leukemans and Van Avermaet can combine good results in Vlaanderen with good results in Liège, and those guys don't have 10% of the talent of Schleck (which he unfortunately doesn't seem to use ).

The best Cancellara has ever been on non-cobbled climbs was at the 2009 world championship, he was ridiculously strong there. But it's unlikely he'll ever have that shape at the start of Liège (and even then everything would have to work in his favour to win).

It seems like some riders are more suited to climbing for obvious reasons.

The key thing about classics and the ardennes in particular is that it brings together the two sides of the non climbing riders and climbing riders. Of course to a greater or lesser extent for example AMG brings together pure climbers such as Schleck versus tough sprinters etc

Liege can be won through your climbing talents but it is not that important that if you are not a fantastic climber you cant win it so therefore guys like Leukermans, Iglinsky do go well but of course if you have that climbing talent it gives you a significant boost so therefore guys like Schleck do well but of course there are things you also need to win Liege which these clmbers may not necessarily have.
But in Flanders IMO that climbing talent is not utilised as much so specialist climbers such as Valverde and Schleck will not be able to utilise their talents as much and therefore they will be of less of a threat to the specialist cobble riders such as Boonen.
Think of Liege and co. as a meeting point between Flanders and MTF (more climbing cause hills as well) and of course Iglinsky and Leukermans will not be able to feature in MTFs as climbers wont be able to feature in Flanders as their talents can not be utilised sufficiently.

 

[theyoungest]

Guys like Sagan and Gilbert show that it doesn't take any special set of skills to do a good Vlaanderen that isn't tested in a race like the Gold Race or Liège (outside maybe the ultra-lightweight guys like Rodriguez, but he usually sucks in Amstel and Liège anyway).

I'd like to suck in Amstel and Liege too, and still get 2nd in both

Sagan and Gilbert are real oldschool classics/hilly riders. Cancellara is a power rider.

Cobbles really aren't that remarkably different from tarmac hills (which the Ronde van Vlaandere features plenty as well).

Of course they are. Cobbled hills are more about pure power, whereas the hills in Liege are more about power vs. weight. Andy Schleck doesn't have pure power, he can't turn the big gears.

 

[El Pistolero]

Does anyone really believe Andy could follow Boonen's acceleration on the Taaienberg or an unleashed Cancellara on the Oude Kwaremont?

 

[Zam_Olyas]

As much as i admire and like vincenzo, vincenzo will not win TDF this year..or podium, all things being equal.

 

[Parrulo]

aren't some of you guys taking this thread a bit too much off-topic?

about the wiggins vs nibali discussion.

could any1 give me a logical reason why wiggins is considered a better GT rider then nibali?

if they hit the mountains properly in the tour wiggins will be out of contention. he has never done well on a multiple mountain stage, look at the 2009 on the only proper mountain of the race. nibali was dropped from the group when there were still around 15 riders in it (it was his worst day in the mountains that year) and wiggins was in it, yet 1 mountain later and nibali dropped wiggins on the climb and extended his lead on the descent.

July 22, 2009: Tour de France: Bourg Saint Maurice - Le Grand Bornand (169.5 km):
1 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 04:53:54
2 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana
3 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank
4 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 0:02:18
5 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana
6 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:02:27
7 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream 0:03:07

And look how much time the schlecks put into wiggins on that single stage. Evans and menchov are the real itt oriented GT riders that will be a threat for the win this year. Not wiggins.

 

[hatcher]

He isn't. But for THIS Tour on THIS route he might be.

 

[Parrulo]

He isn't. But for THIS Tour on THIS route he might be.

you guys are underestimating the mountains of this year's tour a bit. yes it isn't the hardest tour ever but the mountain stages are actually not badly designed to make for good racing with long range attacks like on that stage of the 09 i posted where frank attacked first with about 40k to go.

 

[Angliru]

With Nibali riding the way he has from 2010 on, he has gained many supporters (myself included).
Attacking both up and down hill. I love it!
I doubt he is good enough to podium at the Tour for the foreseeable future, but who knows? If he keeps improving...

As for the Nibali vs. Gesink debate, I'd rate Nibs as a slightly better TT rider, way better bike handler/descender, and a tactically smarter rider than Gesink.
The one area where I think Gesink is still better is climbing. With both at their best, I'd say Gesink would outclimb Nibs.
I prefer Nibs though.

I'm in agreement with all of this. One can't help but admire Nibali's heart and willingness to make the race, any race he's in. I love his attitude to. Back at Tirreno Adriatico he could've pulled the prima donna role on young Sagan when he brought competitors up to an attacking Nibali in pursuit of the stage win but he took the high ride and kept in within the team. I just like his overall style and how he carries himself. Without doubt a classy rider.

 

[will10]

Wiggins hasn't been up against the Schlecks on a multi-climb stage since 2009.

Neither has Nibali.

Both have improved considerably since then.

Both could be contenders at Le Tour.

 

[El Pistolero]

Wiggins hasn't been up against the Schlecks on a multi-climb stage since 2009.

Neither has Nibali.

Both have improved considerably since then.

Both could be contenders at Le Tour.

I'm going with this. Although on this route I think Wiggins has a slight advantage compared to Nibali. But overall, I think Nibali has a bigger future ahead of him.

 

[Parrulo]

Wiggins hasn't been up against the Schlecks on a multi-climb stage since 2009.

Neither has Nibali.

Both have improved considerably since then.

Both could be contenders at Le Tour.

nibali has raced the toughest mountain stages for the past 2 years and always with good results, the last time wiggins rode a proper mountain stage the result wasn't that good either (angliru 2011)

 

[El Pistolero]

Nibali did race against Contador on a multi-climb stage tho

 

[Froome19]

Wiggins hasn't been up against the Schlecks on a multi-climb stage since 2009.

Neither has Nibali.

Both have improved considerably since then.

Both could be contenders at Le Tour.

Exactly, specifically Wiggins has certainly improved since 2009 enormously and so we truly dont know his true limit in the mountains. It wont be the same as Schlecks but so far the indication from his previous races suggest they will be reasonably high, will it be enough for him to do better than Nibali considering he is a better Time triallist, we dont know but it is certainly a possibility, yet certainly not a certainty.