March 17th 2012 Milan-Sanremo - The Primavera - 298km

[Tigerion]

I'm actually starting to come around to the chances of Haussler doing well. I'll back him for a podium as my dark horse.
He has been showing some really good form so far this season

 

[TourOfSardinia]

Who is leading Lampre? Pettachi and Cunego??

Probably not Petacchi - see

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/cunego-to-form-nibali-alliance-at-milan-san-remo

where it says:
“I came out of Paris-Nice well, and a lot of my teammates have physical problems at the moment, like Pietropolli and Petacchi himself, so the management proposed this to me,” Cunego said.

 

[42x16ss]

I expect Cav to do well in MSR, which of course doesn't mean that he will win, just that he will go better than many people think.
There are two reasons why I think he has been training specifically for this race:
1) Winning MSR in the stripes is a career goal for Cav, not just a season goal. This race has been a target for him since September.
2) His other big target for this year is the Olympics, and both MSR and the Olympics will need Cav to be better on hills than he has been in his career so far. He has already said he will sacrifice a bit of his top speed this year to work on climbing and stamina to do well in the Olympics

The interesting question is who will set the pace on the Poggio, knowing that they are setting up others for the win. Nibali seems a possibility, in order to set up Sagan. I can't see someone like Cancellara setting the pace on the Poggio as he would just drag others to the finish.

What about Bennati? I could see Cancellara setting a storming pace up the Poggio to shell out most of the sprinters and set it up for him.

 

[greenedge]

deppends on how it is raced really... Cav COULD theoretically win up Zoncolan to you know

Against the 7 year olds. But he could if he was in a break with a 10 minute gap on the peleton.

 

[greenedge]

Don't know why, but have a feeling it will be a close 1 between EBH, Pettachi, Goss and Freire..

I would love for EBH to breakthrough and get a major win at Sky. Freire looks in good form.
I would like Goss to win out of that group.

@ Tigerion: i agree that Haussler is the dark horse. I would love for him to win ( he seems motivated )

 

[greenedge]

Indeed, FW is a bad example, one big uphill sprint.

I used to like AGR a lot when they started attacking on the Eyserbosweg and it didn't stop until the finish, but even there they wait till the Keutenberg and Cauberg now. And LBL the same, they used to attack on La Redoute, now they wait until Roche Aux Faucons or even Saint Nicolas...

The last 3 years in LBL have been exciting though. Andy/ Vino, Kolobnev/ Gilbert, Frank and Andy. There are small groups coming to the finish.

 

[greenedge]

it's bigger than flanders for sure. simply look at the level of riders competing and the history of the race. I don't think you can find any one day race that has a better riderfield than msr other than maybe lbl and world championships and olympics. in flanders maybe 1 or 2 riders out of top 30 rankings take part.

Flanders is probably bigger in terms of the fan base. In my view it is great as it combines cobbles, short climbs and then the run-in to the finish.

 

[scullster46]

Probably because the final climb is not hard enough to shed all of the sprinters who can also climb. GVA attacked last year but Goss still hung on. Freire regularly does it. I can't see Nibali getting away from Cancellara in this type of race. I think the length of the race also works in favour of the sprinters if they can conserve their energy for as long as possible.

But the idea isn't to just shed all the sprinters off the back, the poggio is too easy for that. Instead, attacking and going hard up the poggio sends the sprinters towards the back of the group and gets you a good position for the descent, which is really the key to MSR. As others have said, if you put the finish on Via Roma, the race becomes even more unpredictable and gives the punchy climbers an actual chance.

MSR is really great because it is an enigma, yes their are people who have won multiple times, but the last few years a assortment of different riders have won it. Their is no real road map as to how to win or when to attack, its hard to choose which riders to get into a break with, so on and so forth. Most races you can have some idea of who might win based on form, but with MSR its really just an educated guess. That's one of the reasons its a monument. As a cycling fan I've found that each year I get more and more excited about MSR

 

[raddone]

What about Bennati? I could see Cancellara setting a storming pace up the Poggio to shell out most of the sprinters and set it up for him.

I could see Cancellara setting a storming pace up the Poggio to shell out most of the sprinters and set it up for himself.

 

[Red Rick]

As much as I like the new and improved Nibali... on this course I'd rate even the chances of Guardini surviving the poggio higher than Nibali winning the race. Sorry nibbs

I like the fact that he tries to win a race while he knows his chances are minimal. Otherwise the only attackers would be Phil en Cancellara, while Pozzato would chase Phil

 

[Eric8-A]

I hear Lotto's going to be wearing these for MSR

 

[Zam_Olyas]

Matteo Bono out due to illness, he is replaced by Daniele Righi.

 

[dlwssonic]

it doesn't really bother me that thor is out, I don't believe he would have been competitive in this race anyway. I love to see BMC go all out and attack rather than wait for a sprint. At least now we have one more domestique and the entire team would not have to work for him for the sprint.

 

[Zam_Olyas]

 

[Zam_Olyas]

 

[trevim]

So San Remo is approaching fast....

I'll be cheering for Tom Boonen. It's the only race he lacks in his palmares. Still I have to say that it's hard to imagine a race situation where Boonen can win and Cavendish isn't there. I'll be rooting for him anyway. After he wins this, what else there is for him to win? Het Volk and nothing else I think. He has won basically everything that a guy like him can.

Another guys I want to see featuring:
- Belletti, Modolo, Degenkolb and random Saxo Bank rider for a top10.
- Greipel and Haussler for the podium.
- Nibali and Cancellara to go balistic on the Poggio, create a nice gap on the descent and maybe win.
- Hoogerland to be Hoogerland since there's nothing to loose.

 

[El Pistolero]

Indeed, FW is a bad example, one big uphill sprint.

I used to like AGR a lot when they started attacking on the Eyserbosweg and it didn't stop until the finish, but even there they wait till the Keutenberg and Cauberg now. And LBL the same, they used to attack on La Redoute, now they wait until Roche Aux Faucons or even Saint Nicolas...

Now the most exciting races the last few years in terms of classics were Flanders and Roubaix. But I wonder if the new finale of Flanders doesn't bore the race out (eg, favorites start waiting longer just like in agr / lbl)

That's because they moved La Redoute further away from the finish

Roche aux Faucons took its place and has only been added to the race since 2008. Since that year, all winning moves have been made on the Roche aux Faucons or the section of false flat that comes after it

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Also before Roche Aux Faucons they stopped attacking on La Redoute a while ago and it was at the same place in 1998 as it was in 2004 (an example of a year where they started attacking on Saint Nicolas only)

 

[pastronef]

Finale Ligure

they rejoin the Aurelia national road (SS1) after Le Manie climb

 

[movingtarget]

But the idea isn't to just shed all the sprinters off the back, the poggio is too easy for that. Instead, attacking and going hard up the poggio sends the sprinters towards the back of the group and gets you a good position for the descent, which is really the key to MSR. As others have said, if you put the finish on Via Roma, the race becomes even more unpredictable and gives the punchy climbers an actual chance.

MSR is really great because it is an enigma, yes their are people who have won multiple times, but the last few years a assortment of different riders have won it. Their is no real road map as to how to win or when to attack, its hard to choose which riders to get into a break with, so on and so forth. Most races you can have some idea of who might win based on form, but with MSR its really just an educated guess. That's one of the reasons its a monument. As a cycling fan I've found that each year I get more and more excited about MSR

I like the race and I agree that positioning on the descent is important as we saw last year.

 

[roundabout]

Redoute is about the same distance from the end as it has always been. at circa 35km to go

although it's good that they replaced Sart-Tilman-Tilff with a better climb

 

[taiwan]

Just remembered that huge split that made the race what it was last year. I expect it will be a bigger bunch that gets to the finish this time.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

That's because they moved La Redoute further away from the finish

Roche aux Faucons took its place and has only been added to the race since 2008. Since that year, all winning moves have been made on the Roche aux Faucons or the section of false flat that comes after it

they put roch aux faucons in that place because they never attacked there anymore anyway and trying to make the race again more exciting

 

[Andy99]

Tomorrows winner doing a spot of motor-pacing today..

 

[cineteq]

Tomorrows winner doing a spot of motor-pacing today..

Yup, he's good at it, it's well known from the Tour.