Menchov vs Contador in the TT.

[Publicus]

There's no winning strategy that doesn't involve Contador having problems. Even if Schleck attacks early there's very little chance of gaining additional 90 seconds over a fully fit Contador that he needs .

Last time Contador lost that much time in the mountains to any rider was when his team got an invite 1 week before a GT start.

Sorry, if i was rude in some way.

I agree that AC has to falter for Andy to win. But Andy has to attack to gain time (a lot of time) to win. That's why I think he may have to accept that AC may be the only one who can hang with him and then try to drop him later. Putting in multiple attacks is AC's thing, not Andy's who seems to like the one big wind up and go at a consistent (but high) pace. Like Basso and Cuddles at the Giro. Basso just rode consistently and ultimately dropped Cuddles. Andy could do the same thing with AC.

I think AC said something smart today, which is that he has to be more selective about which attacks he covers. I think he wasted energy going after the late attacks. Better to sit in and see who picks up the task. I don't think he will make that mistake again.

 

[jaylew]

I think AC said something smart today, which is that he has to be more selective about which attacks he covers. I think he wasted energy going after the late attacks. Better to sit in and see who picks up the task. I don't think he will make that mistake again.

Agreed. I don't think you'll see him covering attacks from anyone save Schleck, Evans or possibly Menchov.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

I agree that AC has to falter for Andy to win. But Andy has to attack to gain time (a lot of time) to win. That's why I think he may have to accept that AC may be the only one who can hang with him and then try to drop him later. Putting in multiple attacks is AC's thing, not Andy's who seems to like the one big wind up and go at a consistent (but high) pace. Like Basso and Cuddles at the Giro. Basso just rode consistently and ultimately dropped Cuddles. Andy could do the same thing with AC.

I think AC said something smart today, which is that he has to be more selective about which attacks he covers. I think he wasted energy going after the late attacks. Better to sit in and see who picks up the task. I don't think he will make that mistake again.

Good for him to get that lesson learned and out of the way at this early stage and at so little cost in time.

I would tend to agree that something has to go wrong for AC for him to lose. That's why I asked about the available allergy treatments. As one (of apparently billions) who are affected by them, I know. Not that that could be the only problem, but it seemed to be a limiter for him yesterday.

 

[Angliru]

There's no winning strategy that doesn't involve Contador having problems. Even if Schleck attacks early there's very little chance of gaining additional 90 seconds over a fully fit Contador that he needs .

Last time Contador lost that much time in the mountains to any rider was when his team got an invite 1 week before a GT start.

Sorry, if i was rude in some way.

The first sign of vulnerability in the mountains, at least this year, was at the Criterium International where Vino set a blistering tempo to set Contador up to launch a winning attack but Contador had nothing left due to allergies. I can't recall how much time he lost but it had to have been more than a minute. I might be wrong.

Andy is of the belief that he is world's best climber and as such he will try to make sure everyone is aware of it by attacking on each final climb.

For me it's something a bit more refreshing to have Contador clobber everyone in the climbs without proclaiming his superiority over his opponents afterwards (letting his legs do the talking) than to have Andy do it (or delusionally think that he did) and then feel the need to tell the media how great he is. We know he is a talented rider but does he need to hear himself say it out loud to reenforce it in his own head?

It reminds of the Saturday Night Live character played by Al Franken who would look in the mirror and constantly say things to positively affirm that he was a nice guy and that people really liked him. Last year when Andy said it, I figured he was being sarcastic but now that he's waited till the Tour to say it again, I've concluded that he's on the verge of becoming the climbing version of Cavendish.

Still though I'm curious as to why he waited so long to attack yesterday. We know Contador just wasn't feeling it but Andy said he felt strong. Likely with the loss of Frank, they didn't want to have to defend the leader's jersey this early in the race which was a smart move. Make Evans' BMC team wear itself out early in the race leaving him and his team cooked come the 3rd week.

 

[the vagabond]

People usually overestimate time differences on late stage race time trials when they use historical data. Jersey wearers who are not known time trialists generally do better - often much better - than expected. Schleck may actually need very little time from here to have a chance against Contador.

AC, AS, and especially CE (who are all in with a chance at the moment) have very little motivation to launch a long-distance solo attack here, yet. Of the remaining riders, Sanchez, the Liquigas duo, and possibly VDB or Menchov would appear the most capable of success. I would rate the others' chances of getting away as low to non-existent.

CE will only mark AS or AC; he can't risk blowing and won't chase an "outsider." AC would join an attack if he thought he could drop CE or AS. AS probably has the most (of the 3) to lose by not chasing down an attack. But he could get snookered into messing up his Tour when he may only be half a minute from success (paragraph 1).

 

[indurain666]

People usually overestimate time differences on late stage race time trials when they use historical data. Jersey wearers who are not known time trialists generally do better - often much better - than expected. Schleck may actually need very little time from here to have a chance against Contador.

AC, AS, and especially CE (who are all in with a chance at the moment) have very little motivation to launch a long-distance solo attack here, yet. Of the remaining riders, Sanchez, the Liquigas duo, and possibly VDB or Menchov would appear the most capable of success. I would rate the others' chances of getting away as low to non-existent.

CE will only mark AS or AC; he can't risk blowing and won't chase an "outsider." AC would join an attack if he thought he could drop CE or AS. AS probably has the most (of the 3) to lose by not chasing down an attack. But he could get snookered into messing up his Tour when he may only be half a minute from success (paragraph 1).

I agree, Heras, Pantani, Sastre and Contador, they all have produced outstanding performances against the clock while wearing the yellow jersey.

Both AC and AS need to attack. Race tactics and team work are going to be key as there aren't many mountain top finishes but a few of HC climb tops with 20-30 k to the finish.

 

[Night Rider]

I think some people are over rating Menchov's TT ability slightly. The only way I see him beating Contador in this TT is if Contador is already three or four minutes in the lead, a likely possibility by then.

 

[santacruz]

Uh, AC out TT'd Fabian last year in a very lengthy ITT.. he's a cyborg, no one will beat him.. unless he's not eating his rice cakes this year.

 

[Climbing]

This year TT is completely flat and comes in the end after lots of mountains.
This will favour as always who has the better legs more than the specialists, so you can expect some surprises.

 

[movingtarget]

There are no half measures with Menchov. It is either a mediocre time trial or a great one. The trouble is will he be close enough to Contador at the start of the time trial. I have my doubts.

 

[kurtinsc]

Publicus... just admitting you were right on this. While Andy tried to drop Contador for a stretch, in the end the two did cooperate.

It's Andy vs Alberto now... can't see Andy winning that one without a Contador bad day. He needs at a minimum another minute to even have a prayer with the TT.

 

[roundabout]

Yep, same here. I was wrong.

 

[Oldman]

I think some people are over rating Menchov's TT ability slightly. The only way I see him beating Contador in this TT is if Contador is already three or four minutes in the lead, a likely possibility by then.

Good point and generally explains why "climbers" come into late TT's with better results. At the rate they're going Contador won't need any more time on Menchov and still has a buffer for a TT mishap.
Having said that Menchov still has Gesink to mix things up and Contador's prime strategy of watching Andy will mean Vino and others will have to keep a lid on Gesink.
Barring a mishap this Tour is pretty much going to the script.

 

[Publicus]

Publicus... just admitting you were right on this. While Andy tried to drop Contador for a stretch, in the end the two did cooperate.

It's Andy vs Alberto now... can't see Andy winning that one without a Contador bad day. He needs at a minimum another minute to even have a prayer with the TT.

Yep, same here. I was wrong.

No need. We were discussing an unknown event that just happened to break my way versus yours. It easily could have gone your way (and I think it will over the coming days).

It was an epic race. And frankly I think we've seen the last of the cooperation between the two. Andy seems to think AC has to attack now because he has a 41 second deficit. I'm guessing Andy thinks he's playing some sort of mind game here, but the facts aren't supporting his conclusion. AC doesn't have to attack (he will, but doesn't have to). Others have to attack. He just has to wait and bide his time for the perfect moment to counter attack.

Just an epic race.

 

[Cerberus]

No need. We were discussing an unknown event that just happened to break my way versus yours. It easily could have gone your way (and I think it will over the coming days).

It was an epic race. And frankly I think we've seen the last of the cooperation between the two. Andy seems to think AC has to attack now because he has a 41 second deficit. I'm guessing Andy thinks he's playing some sort of mind game here, but the facts aren't supporting his conclusion. AC doesn't have to attack (he will, but doesn't have to). Others have to attack. He just has to wait and bide his time for the perfect moment to counter attack.

Just an epic race.

I don't know what you're basing that on, Andy has said he need more time, and that he stopped attacking today because he would have blown if he kept at it. That's a good reason in my mind. He's now sealed up second place and can focus on getting first, he might not succeed, in fact he probably won't, but he has a shot and would be dumb not to take it.

 

[Oldman]

I don't know what you're basing that on, Andy has said he need more time, and that he stopped attacking today because he would have blown if he kept at it. That's a good reason in my mind. He's now sealed up second place and can focus on getting first, he might not succeed, in fact he probably won't, but he has a shot and would be dumb not to take it.

It'll make for a dull GC if he doesn't. He'll need to respond to the inevitable attacks from others first, though. Going on the offensive while being defensive is tough unless the terrain specifically suits him and there are plenty of places to screw up. AC actually has some of that shared concern and the two teams may cooperate to maintain the status quo on the less than epic stages. They're only halfway to Paris so I'm betting things get conservative if they have they're way (AC & AS) until the final mountains.

 

[Publicus]

I don't know what you're basing that on, Andy has said he need more time, and that he stopped attacking today because he would have blown if he kept at it. That's a good reason in my mind. He's now sealed up second place and can focus on getting first, he might not succeed, in fact he probably won't, but he has a shot and would be dumb not to take it.

Basing what on? Andy's statement the AC has to attack now? I got it from Andy:

"The difference from this year to last year is that I could never drop Contador, but he can't drop me either," said Schleck. "The difference now is that I'm 41 seconds ahead of him and if he wants to win this he has to attack me."

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/schleck-ready-to-match-contador

"I know what my goal is and I know which wheel to follow, that's the one of Andy Schleck," Contador said to TV reporters. "There was an opportunity to gain some time over dangerous riders for GC, these were the circumstances of today's stage. I'm happy with my sensations. I felt very good today."

 

[Oldman]

Basing what on? Andy's statement the AC has to attack now? I got it from Andy:



http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/schleck-ready-to-match-contador

What he says and what he thinks aren't necessarily the same thing, or shouldn't be if he's tactically shrewd. Conta has his plan and has shown his form of discipline in planning, depsite what Lance says.

 

[kurtinsc]

Andy seems to have forgotten that he sucks at time trials.

 

[Publicus]

What he says and what he thinks aren't necessarily the same thing, or shouldn't be if he's tactically shrewd. Conta has his plan and has shown his form of discipline in planning, depsite what Lance says.

I don't think Andy is tactically shrewd. He's going to have to learn some lessons the hard way (like most of us do). I do like that he is supremely confident in his talents. Nothing wrong with that. I just think he doesn't read his opponents all that well--though he did call that Cuddles implosion.

 

[Oldman]

I don't think Andy is tactically shrewd. He's going to have to learn some lessons the hard way (like most of us do). I do like that he is supremely confident in his talents. Nothing wrong with that. I just think he doesn't read his opponents all that well--though he did call that Cuddles implosion.

Sorry, not clear enough. I meant Contador is tactically shrewd, despite Armstrong's advertised opinion. Can't say about Schleck but he should be thinking carefully or he could overwork when there is no chance to gain time. Expecting Contador to attack until he's fatigued isn't much of a plan.

 

[Publicus]

Sorry, not clear enough. I meant Contador is tactically shrewd, despite Armstrong's advertised opinion. Can't say about Schleck but he should be thinking carefully or he could overwork when there is no chance to gain time. Expecting Contador to attack until he's fatigued isn't much of a plan.

Which seems to be his (Andy's) plan.

 

[2wheels]

Andy says plenty of goofy things, like about Contador needing to attack him, but I'm pretty sure that all of Saxo knows full well that Andy needs at least another minute advantage before the ITT-- and it won't surprise me if they pull it off. Let's face it-- if they can win a Tour with Sastre, they certainly have a chance to win this one with Andy.

 

[lancewillwin8]

It looks like contador doesnt have the legs to match andy. Its such a pity that alberto's career has already peaked.

 

[Publicus]

Andy says plenty of goofy things, like about Contador needing to attack him, but I'm pretty sure that all of Saxo knows full well that Andy needs at least another minute advantage before the ITT-- and it won't surprise me if they pull it off. Let's face it-- if they can win a Tour with Sastre, they certainly have a chance to win this one with Andy.

It would absolutely shock me if they pulled it off. Saxo is shyte in the mountains this year, especially compared to the juggernaut that Astana is proving to be in the mountains. Astana only has to sit back and wait because Andy probably needs more time over Menchov for the final TT.