Menchov vs Contador in the TT.

[lancewillwin8]

It would absolutely shock me if they pulled it off. Saxo is shyte in the mountains this year, especially considering the juggernaut that Astana is proving to be in the mountains. Astana only has to sit back and wait because Andy probably needs more time over Menchov for the final TT.

The tour is only young wait for the juggernaut that is supposedly astana blow to pieces in the weeks to come, and watch teamradioshack rise from the ashes like a mythical creature in the third week.

 

[Publicus]

The tour is only young wait for the juggernaut that is supposedly astana blow to pieces in the weeks to come, and watch teamradioshack rise from the ashes like a mythical creature in the third week.

I think your forum name says it all about your powers of prognostication.

 

[rxgqgxnyfz]

watch teamradioshack rise from the ashes like a mythical creature in the third week.

By mythical creature you mean Humpty Dumpty, right?
________
Taunus

 

[Cerberus]

Basing what on? Andy's statement the AC has to attack now? I got it from Andy:



http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/schleck-ready-to-match-contador

OK, yeah that's a good basis.

Seems to contradict what I head him say earlier, clearly you're right and if it goes into the ITT like this Contador is by far the most likely to win.

It would absolutely shock me if they pulled it off. Saxo is shyte in the mountains this year, especially compared to the juggernaut that Astana is proving to be in the mountains. Astana only has to sit back and wait because Andy probably needs more time over Menchov for the final TT.

However impressive Astana have been none of them save Contador are going to be following Schleck, I dont' think Saxo Bank weakness is going to prevent Schleck from dropping Contador, not saying he can, but if he can't it's not because of his team. AS for needing more time on Menchov he has 3 minutes, I think you're exaggerating how bad a TT'er Andy is. Andy does need to attack, but that's to take time from Contador and no one else. He will however take time from everyone, but Contador just by trying to drop Contador.

 

[Publicus]

OK, yeah that's a good basis.

Seems to contradict what I head him say earlier, clearly you're right and if it goes into the ITT like this Contador is by far the most likely to win.


However impressive Astana have been none of them save Contador are going to be following Schleck, I dont' think Saxo Bank weakness is going to prevent Schleck from dropping Contador, not saying he can, but if he can't it's not because of his team. AS for needing more time on Menchov he has 3 minutes, I think you're exaggerating how bad a TT'er Andy is. Andy does need to attack, but that's to take time from Contador and no one else. He will however take time from everyone, but Contador just by trying to drop Contador.

I think Andy would have a much easier time of truly dropping AC if Frank was around. And even then I think it would be tough. I remember for awhile the tactic to beat AC was to try and isolate him and then put in multiple attacks. I think that tactic would work against Andy and Saxo Bank at this point given their current strength. I don't know if any of the contenders have the balls to attack Andy (save AC), but it is the tactic to take if they want to take back some time.

As for Andy's TT, given the length, I don't think a 3 minute loss is outside of the realm of possibility. It's just not Andy's strong suit, notwithstanding the fact he is the Luxembourg TT champion.

 

[Oldman]

I think Andy would have a much easier time of truly dropping AC if Frank was around. And even then I think it would be tough. I remember for awhile the tactic to beat AC was to try and isolate him and then put in multiple attacks. I think that tactic would work against Andy and Saxo Bank at this point given their current strength. I don't know if any of the contenders have the balls to attack Andy (save AC), but it is the tactic to take if they want to take back some time.

As for Andy's TT, given the length, I don't think a 3 minute loss is outside of the realm of possibility. It's just not Andy's strong suit, notwithstanding the fact he is the Luxembourg TT champion.

As for Andy's TT prowess; there are more than 4 riders contesting this version as opposed to Luxembourg. I really think these two guys are on par with each other and the one to win is who attacks when the other is spent. Neither will lose minutes to each other unless they are reckless and waste energy and Andy's strategy should be to extract that energy from Astana. If he can get Contador isolated early he might have a shot. That's not easy to do with all of the other opportunists still close enough to do damage and Astana still pretty deep in talent, despite what that Master Tactician, Lancewillwin8 prognositcates.
It's more telling what ITT strength remains with the contenders because in the end, that's who Andy and AC need to be concerned about. They may end up playing a game of "Chicken" when a Gesink or Menchov get frisky (yes, I said Menchov) and go up the road with a Basso, Leipheim...(wait, that won't happen) Armstrong, Horner (he's got a career to finish with somebody), Sanchez and they don't react until too late. It's their Tour to lose at this point.

 

[Angliru]

Andy says plenty of goofy things, like about Contador needing to attack him, but I'm pretty sure that all of Saxo knows full well that Andy needs at least another minute advantage before the ITT-- and it won't surprise me if they pull it off. Let's face it-- if they can win a Tour with Sastre, they certainly have a chance to win this one with Andy.

That was a Tour without Contador though.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

The tour is only young wait for the juggernaut that is supposedly astana blow to pieces in the weeks to come, and watch teamradioshack rise from the ashes like a mythical creature in the third week.

Like a Phoenix, rising from Arizona's assisted living facilities.

Yes, I am excited to see the entire shack team including masseuses and helpers and JB launching off the front on a TTT to gain 20 minutes on the tourmalet. It's going to be epic. And then Bob Roll's hair and missing tooth will grow back....

 

[Ramira]

I've been reading this forum for a while now, but never really felt there was any need to contribute but I feel I have to correct a common mistake to make sure this discussion stays on the right path and that's Schlek's time trialing ability. While it is true he's not close to being as good as Contador, from what I've seen this year I would say the gap is probably closer then last year, where he lost a mere 1 min 44 in a time trial Contador won and was only about 10k shorter then this one. The simple fact is at the end of a hard race like this tour will be the true GT riders get close, heck Pantani lost only 2:35 to Ullrich when he won the Tour.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/96th-tour-de-france-gt/stage-18/results

So if Schlek has been overplaying his advances in the ITT I would expect him to lose two minutes or so if he's really advanced his ITT he could lose less then 1'20 so I think he's right that if Contador doesn't attack him he's playing with fire because if Schlek has one or two small attacks of 20-30 seconds it might end up being to much for Contador. In my opinion Contador will be the favorite until Schlek has more then about a minute 45 but don't think Contador will just take 2 minutes in the TT especially not if Schlek comes in with the boost the yellow jersey often gives in a TT. In the end I think who'ever is better in stage 14 and 17 will end up winning the tour, whether it's Contador by bringing the gap down under 30 seconds or Schlek by getting another 40 seconds to a minute and just holding on in the TT.

 

[Angliru]

I've been reading this forum for a while now, but never really felt there was any need to contribute but I feel I have to correct a common mistake to make sure this discussion stays on the right path and that's Schlek's time trialing ability. While it is true he's not close to being as good as Contador, from what I've seen this year I would say the gap is probably closer then last year, where he lost a mere 1 min 44 in a time trial Contador won and was only about 10k shorter then this one. The simple fact is at the end of a hard race like this tour will be the true GT riders get close, heck Pantani lost only 2:35 to Ullrich when he won the Tour.

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/96th-tour-de-france-gt/stage-18/results

So if Schlek has been overplaying his advances in the ITT I would expect him to lose two minutes or so if he's really advanced his ITT he could lose less then 1'20 so I think he's right that if Contador doesn't attack him he's playing with fire because if Schlek has one or two small attacks of 20-30 seconds it might end up being to much for Contador. In my opinion Contador will be the favorite until Schlek has more then about a minute 45 but don't think Contador will just take 2 minutes in the TT especially not if Schlek comes in with the boost the yellow jersey often gives in a TT. In the end I think who'ever is better in stage 14 and 17 will end up winning the tour, whether it's Contador by bringing the gap down under 30 seconds or Schlek by getting another 40 seconds to a minute and just holding on in the TT.

Schleck indicated after yesterday's stage that he stopped attacking Contador because he was fearful that he would blow up. Contador meanwhile appeared to easily answer all of Schleck's attacks. Could it be that Contador is saving his energies for the Pyrenees? Like many riders in the past like him, it is his natural inclination to attack and I would say that he's showing great discipline in not doing so this early in the race. With Andy only holding 40 seconds on him, a gap that the ITT will surely eliminate plus some, I'd say it's only a matter of time (days maybe?) that he puts in an attack to really see if Andy has improved as much as many believe he has. They are both testing each other at this point. It should be quite interesting to see how this feeling out process turns out.

It had to be a bit disconcerting for Schleck after the motivational boost he had as result of Sunday's stage win to likely have the expectation that he would drop Contador like he thought that he did and to then have him answer every attack.