Menchov vs Contador in the TT.

[Publicus]

Well, you were the one who *predicted* after stage 7 that Schleck was going to be shelled on stage 8 so , yes it's just you.

Touche. I did say that based on what Andy had said regarding the stage. I was, not for the first time nor the last, wrong.

 

[roundabout]

I'm not saying Alberto won't be able to drop Andy. I'm saying Andy won't HELP Contador.

I still think Contador wins the race... I simply can't see an Andy/Alberto team working together to gap the pack. Andy's not going to pull in that scenario... and if Alberto doesn't either, then the others will rejoin (like happened repeatedly last year on Ventoux).

+1, reading somewhere the official tactic for Schleck is to wheelsuck Contador at least for now.

Edit: just to make things clear working with Contador means that Schleck would very likely not win

Contador marking Schleck and not chasing any contenders also means that Schleck finishes behind Contador in Paris

Simply, there's no reason for Schleck to help Contador if he wants to win, while Contador has to gain time on Evans (and Menchov?)

 

[Publicus]

I'm not saying Alberto won't be able to drop Andy. I'm saying Andy won't HELP Contador.

I still think Contador wins the race... I simply can't see an Andy/Alberto team working together to gap the pack. Andy's not going to pull in that scenario... and if Alberto doesn't either, then the others will rejoin (like happened repeatedly last year on Ventoux).

Fair enough. If that's the official strategy, then Andy loses IMO.

 

[DenisMenchov]

that's Denis. he's always so quiet, and this is ****ing me off
i'm sure, Denis will have to gain much more in the ITT than 9 secs. yes, when he's in top form, he can defend extremely well. but this is Contador we are talking about, i'm sure Bertie will drop Denis. my predict - it's gonna be around 1.5-2 mins between then before the time trial. but who knows. we've never seen top form Conta against a top form Menchov. Tour 2007 - Denis was not in form. 2008 Giro - Conta was going for a win, Denis was preparing for The Tour. 2009 Tour - Denis was out of form after The Giro. so maybe that's the time, where we can see, what is Denis capable of, when he's against the top riders like Andy and Alberto. as a Denis fan i'm excited and nervous

Same with me

 

[Publicus]

+1, reading somewhere the official tactic for Schleck is to wheelsuck Contador at least for now.

Edit: just to make things clear working with Contador means that Schleck would very likely not win

Contador marking Schleck and not chasing any contenders also means that Schleck finishes behind Contador in Paris

Simply, there's no reason for Schleck to help Contador if he wants to win, while Contador has to gain time on Evans (and Menchov?)

And Schleck doesn't?

 

[kurtinsc]

Fair enough. If that's the official strategy, then Andy loses IMO.

It's the only strategy that potentially could lead to a win.

He might end up 3rd-5th by not helping Contador... but he could get first too if he can build up enough time with late attacks.

If he helps Contador... he gets second. Zero chance at first.

 

[kurtinsc]

And Schleck doesn't?

Again, the difference is that Schleck needs time on Contador too.

In that scenario you don't want to make yourself the only challenger by helping him get time on everyone else. He then gets to ride defensively focusing JUST on you... like he did after Verbier in last year's tour.

Contador will not be beatable if that's the case.

He could make that happen without Schleck's help... by doing exactly what he did on Verbier last year. But Schleck is not going to cooperate with Contador as long as he still thinks he can win.

Once he feels 1st is no longer atainable (say on the Tourmalet if AC follows his attack)... then he will probably work with him to secure second.

 

[Nickbeam]

Same with me

if tomorrow Denis stays with the fav's, i'm sure he's gonna be on the podium. he always rides better in Pyrenees and the final TT suits him.

 

[Publicus]

It's the only strategy that potentially could lead to a win.

He might end up 3rd-5th by not helping Contador... but he could get first too if he can build up enough time with late attacks.

If he helps Contador... he gets second. Zero chance at first.

I hear you, but for Andy to win, he has to get time on Cuddles the ultimate wheel suck and to do that he or someone is going to have to push the pace. It seems to me his best ally (of the remaining contenders) is AC.

But I hear what you are saying. We will definitely have to see how it plays out. I think this thing can go a couple of different ways, especially if Andy and Alberto are just watching each other.

 

[roundabout]

And Schleck doesn't?

1.If Contador gains enough time and Evans and Menchov, even not gaining any time on Schleck before the TT he will win so working with Contador isn't a winning strategy

2. Schleck has to gain enough time on Contador before the TT. Even if he is slightly stronger on the climbs, it's highly unlikely that he will gain enough time head to head.

Again, working with Contador is no guarantee of success.

3. As good as Contador is in TT it is my opinion that right now he needs to get time on Evans (and Menchov?)

4. For Contador the winning strategy is to attack.

5. For Schleck there is no winning strategy without Contador faltering.

6. Not helping Contador increases the chances of Contador blowing up.

7. Ergo, wheelsucking is a slightly more rational tactic than working.

How can i explain it in more simple terms?

 

[perico]

I'm not quite yet sold as to how high he will finish. Probably top 5, don't think he is the sole danger man for AC or AS to worry about most yet though. His Giro win last year was impressive but his tour was a disaster, and beating Contador (especially if he peaks during the 3rd week) is a whole other ballgame than beating Di Luca (a doped Di Luca, but still...). He can't have any miscues, or tumbles in the TT and still gain time on AC, who I think will be strong in the final TT.

 

[Publicus]

Again, the difference is that Schleck needs time on Contador too.

In that scenario you don't want to make yourself the only challenger by helping him get time on everyone else. He then gets to ride defensively focusing JUST on you... like he did after Verbier in last year's tour.

Contador will not be beatable if that's the case.

He could make that happen without Schleck's help... by doing exactly what he did on Verbier last year. But Schleck is not going to cooperate with Contador as long as he still thinks he can win.

Once he feels 1st is no longer atainable (say on the Tourmalet if AC follows his attack)... then he will probably work with him to secure second.

I guess my point is that while AC needs to minimize the gap to Evans, and increase it to Menchov, he doesn't need as much time as Andy. Pursuing the strategy you've outlined, AC still has a better chance of winning than Andy, but it only minimally increases Andy's chance of victory. If, as Andy believes (and it is clear that he does), he is a much better climber than AC, nothing hurts to help for awhile and then ultimately drop AC. If he's got the goods, then he's got the goods. In my mind that is a better strategy for Andy (assuming he is stronger than AC in the hills). Sitting in and waiting to nip AC for 10 seconds here and there isn't going to be enough to win if Andy's TT form hasn't improved considerably and the other contenders are also just sitting on.

But I don't think it is just AC that Andy has to worry about. The group of contenders has some very good climbers (Basso, Menchov, Gesink) that need to attack and gain time. And good climbers that only want to keep Andy within sight (Levi, Cuddles, Wiggins) ahead of the TT. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

 

[kurtinsc]

I hear you, but for Andy to win, he has to get time on Cuddles the ultimate wheel suck and to do that he or someone is going to have to push the pace. It seems to me his best ally (of the remaining contenders) is AC.

But I hear what you are saying. We will definitely have to see how it plays out. I think this thing can go a couple of different ways, especially if Andy and Alberto are just watching each other.

I don't think he'll push the pace... I think he'll attack.

If he can get the gap he got on stage 8 early on in a long climb, then he'd push and try to drop Sanchez and go solo. He doesn't want to work with someone else in contention... he's going to have to do it alone. If someone else he fears is with him... he won't work, then will try to attack again.

If he wants to win, he can't help contador (or Menchov or Evans if they end up being strong enough in the mountains). That doesn't mean he won't attack... he just can't tow a superior TT rider who's within range of him to the finish. He's got to gap them.

 

[kurtinsc]

I guess my point is that while AC needs to minimize the gap to Evans, and increase it to Menchov, he doesn't need as much time as Andy. Pursuing the strategy you've outlined, AC still has a better chance of winning than Andy, but it only minimally increases Andy's chance of victory. If, as Andy believes (and it is clear that he does), he is a much better climber than AC, nothing hurts to help for awhile and then ultimately drop AC. If he's got the goods, then he's got the goods. In my mind that is a better strategy for Andy (assuming he is stronger than AC in the hills). Sitting in and waiting to nip AC for 10 seconds here and there isn't going to be enough to win if Andy's TT form hasn't improved considerably and the other contenders are also just sitting on.

But I don't think it is just AC that Andy has to worry about. The group of contenders has some very good climbers (Basso, Menchov, Gesink) that need to attack and gain time. And good climbers that only want to keep Andy within sight (Levi, Cuddles, Wiggins) ahead of the TT. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Menchov goes in the second list. If he doesn't lose any more time to AC or AS... he wins the tour.

Now I think Schleck would work with Gesink or Basso (or Sastre for that matter)... none of them can TT enough better to matter. And I think he'd work with Wiggins unless he is still close later in the race... he probably thinks he can take 3+ minutes off him on the tourmalet.

 

[Nickbeam]

I hear you, but for Andy to win, he has to get time on Cuddles the ultimate wheel suck and to do that he or someone is going to have to push the pace. It seems to me his best ally (of the remaining contenders) is AC.

But I hear what you are saying. We will definitely have to see how it plays out. I think this thing can go a couple of different ways, especially if Andy and Alberto are just watching each other.

Andy has to gain time on Evans, Menchov, Levy, Kreuziger and the worst thing - Alberto. ok, Basso, Samu, Sastre, they're all ~2min behind AS so not a threat at the moment, but still, that's a hard thing to do. the only hope is that Evans will crack coz of Giro, Denis can drop out on some stage, same for Kreuzi, but i just can't imagine him dropping Alberto.

 

[Nickbeam]

But I don't think it is just AC that Andy has to worry about. The group of contenders has some very good climbers (Basso, Menchov, Gesink) that need to attack and gain time. And good climbers that only want to keep Andy within sight (Levi, Cuddles, Wiggins) ahead of the TT. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

why does Menchov has to attack. i don't agree with you he's in the perfect position for defence. 1.10 behind Evans (who can crack after the Giro), 50 secs behind Schleck (will gain that time in the TT for sure) and 9 secs behind Contador (9 secs in a flat TT? he can do it in top form easily).
the only thing, is that i don't believe that these gaps will stay as they are now.

 

[Publicus]

I don't think he'll push the pace... I think he'll attack.

If he can get the gap he got on stage 8 early on in a long climb, then he'd push and try to drop Sanchez and go solo. He doesn't want to work with someone else in contention... he's going to have to do it alone. If someone else he fears is with him... he won't work, then will try to attack again.

If he wants to win, he can't help contador (or Menchov or Evans if they end up being strong enough in the mountains). That doesn't mean he won't attack... he just can't tow a superior TT rider who's within range of him to the finish. He's got to gap them.

Ok. So you think Sanchez will be able to follow his attack early on a climb but AC won't? I just don't see that, but would love for Andy to attack early.

 

[Publicus]

why does Menchov has to attack. i don't agree with you he's in the perfect position for defence. 1.10 behind Evans (who can crack after the Giro), 50 secs behind Schleck (will gain that time in the TT for sure) and 9 secs behind Contador (9 secs in a flat TT? he can do it in top form easily).
the only thing, is that i don't believe that these gaps will stay as they are now.

I should have put Menchov in the good climber group but want to keep both of them in striking range (Cuddles and Wiggins group). My error.

 

[Publicus]

1.If Contador gains enough time and Evans and Menchov, even not gaining any time on Schleck before the TT he will win so working with Contador isn't a winning strategy

2. Schleck has to gain enough time on Contador before the TT. Even if he is slightly stronger on the climbs, it's highly unlikely that he will gain enough time head to head.

Again, working with Contador is no guarantee of success.

3. As good as Contador is in TT it is my opinion that right now he needs to get time on Evans (and Menchov?)

4. For Contador the winning strategy is to attack.

5. For Schleck there is no winning strategy without Contador faltering.

6. Not helping Contador increases the chances of Contador blowing up.

7. Ergo, wheelsucking is a slightly more rational tactic than working.

How can i explain it in more simple terms?

Maybe you could be just a bit more d1ckish. That would probably really help me get your point.

I think there is no winning strategy for Andy that doesn't involve attacking early and often in the mountains.

 

[alberto.legstrong]

Honestly, I think AC just rides Andy's wheel.

Assuming that he rides his wheel, at what point (before the TT) does AC need to put time into AS? And what stage would that be most logical? waiting to the last stage before the TT strikes me as a dicey proposition, especially given the proximity of Menchov and the time he needs on Evans.

 

[Publicus]

Assuming that he rides his wheel, at what point (before the TT) does AC need to put time into AS? And what stage would that be most logical? waiting to the last stage before the TT strikes me as a dicey proposition, especially given the proximity of Menchov and the time he needs on Evans.

I think he relies on the fact that Andy is going to have to attack to win. As I said earlier, AC needs time on Evans and Menchov, but Andy needs a heck of lot more. Andy has to go get that time since Evans and Menchov will be content to just ride wheels (both his and Alberto's).

http://iamspecialized.com/road/rider/alberto-contador/1125/#/blog

 

[ttrider]

Andy will attack and frankly has to all the time, Contador has to probably get a minute back on Evans and put 1 30 into Menchov so i think these are the 4 to worry about

Contador should just follow Andy if hes not on last years form, they have become m8s and im sure there is a reason behind that..... Contador to win with an attack in the pyrenees for me, probably AX3, otherwise he rides like 08 Giro and follows Andy

I think he can let Andy tire himself then smash him up AX3

I think Shlecks stage win yesterday worsened his position and improved contadors!
Everyone will be looking at Shleck now and Evans is a great fighter so Contador may have inherited the easy riding position!!

 

[kurtinsc]

Andy will attack and frankly has to all the time, Contador has to probably get a minute back on Evans and put 1 30 into Menchov so i think these are the 4 to worry about

Contador should just follow Andy if hes not on last years form, they have become m8s and im sure there is a reason behind that..... Contador to win with an attack in the pyrenees for me, probably AX3, otherwise he rides like 08 Giro and follows Andy

I think he can let Andy tire himself then smash him up AX3

I think Shlecks stage win yesterday worsened his position and improved contadors!
Everyone will be looking at Shleck now and Evans is a great fighter so Contador may have inherited the easy riding position!!

Andy will attack.

I just dont' think he'll press the attack if Contador is on his wheel. He'd rather fall back to the group and then attack again then pull AC to a huge lead over everyone else.

 

[roundabout]

Maybe you could be just a bit more d1ckish. That would probably really help me get your point.

I think there is no winning strategy for Andy that doesn't involve attacking early and often in the mountains.

There's no winning strategy that doesn't involve Contador having problems. Even if Schleck attacks early there's very little chance of gaining additional 90 seconds over a fully fit Contador that he needs .

Last time Contador lost that much time in the mountains to any rider was when his team got an invite 1 week before a GT start.

Sorry, if i was rude in some way.

 

[jaylew]

Then if Andy doesn't attack... Contador potentially loses the tour to Menchov, Evans or (if he somehow holds on through the climbs) Leipheimer.

I think Andy is going to focus totally on losing Contador... if he doesn't, he's not going to help Contador get time on anyone else. I simply disagree with the idea that he's going to work with Contador at all in this year's tour... not unless he gets at least another minute on him... more probably two.

Maybe on the Tourmalet if Andy hasn't been able to drop Contador... maybe then he'd work with him to secure second. Not until then I think.

I disagree. I think if Schleck sees the chance to put some more distance between himself and Evans, Menchov, etc... he'll take it, even if it means Contador is with him. He may try to drop him, but if he can't I believe he will work with him and then hope to dispatch AC on a later stage; he already believes he is the top climber in the race.

If you have a chance to eliminate contenders, you've got to do it. There's no telling what can happen later in the race. AS could have an off-day, Menchov, Sastre, or Basso could become stronger in the 3rd week, Contador could have an off-day or a crash. You eliminate contenders when you can.