Milan - San Remo 2018

[fauniera]

Excellent race from Israel Cycling Academy, by the way. Van Winden was in the break till the end, and Neilands attacked on the Poggio while the World Tour riders didn't dare attack or didn't have the legs. Well done.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Sagan failing again, getting slightly overrated at this point

Nibali, what a campione!

He is still 3 times world champion, is he? Please rate his classic campaign after Roubaix or maybe even after AGR if he rides it not after 1st big classic of the year which we all know is a complete lottery.

Two of those wins came in bunch sprints, not any different from Cav's win. And everyone hyping him like he can ride everyone off his wheel.

To be fair, he can ride everyone off his wheel. His physical characteristics are not the problem at all - he's one of the best cyclists you will ever seen in terms of power profiles. The problem is that he's tactically useless.

The problem for Sagan is that he can both win by attacking and by sprinting, but he can't do both in the same race.

And you might win the sprint if you're on 95% shape, but you can't make the difference on the Poggio on 95%, and that's where all the punchers failed.

Nibali rode it like a true climber. Don't wait for the one 8% pitch at 300m from the top but go from far out.

Another problem is that he is terrible at using his team - so ends up having to do everything himself. Probably a result of being so dominant at junior levels, that it was something he never needed to learn. In fact, he's better without a proper team like in the flat WCs he won - where he has no option just forced to sit and wait until the finish.

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

Did Trentin cost Ewan the win?

Yes, and lets all thank him for that.

Ridiculously linear thinking imo.

If Trentin doesn't go then maybe someone else goes and maybe they do bridge to Nibali and a smaller group might go to the line together.

If Trentin doesn't go maybe the group don't chase so hard initially without having him dangling just off the front and being extra worried of a duo making it to the line and Nibali wins by more.

If Trentin doesn't go maybe the group behind does catch Nibali and there are better trains and positioning from the other sprinters with the win on the line.

If Trentin doesn't go maybe a small group disrupt things in the run in after they come off the Poggio which throws a wrench in all the sprinters plans.

So many things that can play out in that finale to say that eliminating option b) would have resulted in option c)

finally someone with a reasonable opinion, I can not understand how someone say that Trentin cost Ewan victory, it is just pure nonsense

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

Sagan failing again, getting slightly overrated at this point

Nibali, what a campione!

He is still 3 times world champion, is he? Please rate his classic campaign after Roubaix or maybe even after AGR if he rides it not after 1st big classic of the year which we all know is a complete lottery.

Two of those wins came in bunch sprints, not any different from Cav's win. And everyone hyping him like he can ride everyone off his wheel.

To be fair, he can ride everyone off his wheel. His physical characteristics are not the problem at all - he's one of the best cyclists you will ever seen in terms of power profiles. The problem is that he's tactically useless.

The problem for Sagan is that he can both win by attacking and by sprinting, but he can't do both in the same race.

And you might win the sprint if you're on 95% shape, but you can't make the difference on the Poggio on 95%, and that's where all the punchers failed.

Nibali rode it like a true climber. Don't wait for the one 8% pitch at 300m from the top but go from far out.

Very true.

He can make the difference on Poggio only in the best form of his life. He is light years behind that.
I do not really mind if this means that his top shape is in RVV-PR-AGR.

Nevermind I hardly could pick up a better winner for this race. Sagan learned from him at the beginning and he can still learn a lot from him. This might be the year of the shark. I am pretty sure that Sagan is pretty happy with the winner today too.

 

[MartinGT]

Wow

Superb Nibali, what a finish, I was on my hands and knees watching it.

I hope Cav is ok man. That looked nasty and wasnt he already riding with a broken rib? How did Greipal do his collarbone? Was that in the same crash?

 

[DFA123]

Wow

Superb Nibali, what a finish, I was on my hands and knees watching it.

I hope Cav is ok man. That looked nasty and wasnt he already riding with a broken rib? How did Greipal do his collarbone? Was that in the same crash?

Greipel was on the descent of the Poggio I think. Which must be doubly annoying for him - he did the hard work to get over the last climb within touching distance - but still didn't get to contest the sprint.

 

[Gigs_98]

Wow

Superb Nibali, what a finish, I was on my hands and knees watching it.

I hope Cav is ok man. That looked nasty and wasnt he already riding with a broken rib? How did Greipal do his collarbone? Was that in the same crash?

I think Greipel crashed on the Poggio descent.

 

[MartinGT]

Wow

Superb Nibali, what a finish, I was on my hands and knees watching it.

I hope Cav is ok man. That looked nasty and wasnt he already riding with a broken rib? How did Greipal do his collarbone? Was that in the same crash?

Greipel was on the descent of the Poggio I think. Which must be doubly annoying for him - he did the hard work to get over the last climb within touching distance - but still didn't get to contest the sprint.

Bah gutted. He's been climbing well too this year.

 

[Sciatic]

The "Ewan could have won" statements are pretty poor logic.

Essentially, you are saying "If Nibali didn't attack . . ." Or "If Nibali wasn't there ..." But if that was the case, one of the main favorites would have certainly put in a powerful attack near the top, with good chances that a small group would get away as usually happens. Or, if no one went away over the top, the power sprint trains would have come into play, and the finale would have been completely different.

It's one thing to say "if so and so had not finished first" on a summit finish, then the 2d place rider who also soloed to the finish would have won. In this race, however, the moment Nibali attacked at a spot--where typically only pretenders, not favorites, usually attack--the race was tactically turned upside down. Which is also why it was such a brilliant and gutsy move!

 

[Salvarani]

Re: Re:

Don't understand people saying Sagan was riding defensively, only thinking about Kwiatkoski.

This is a physical test. He got beat. Nibali moved faster than Oss, for longer. Sagan couldn't make it up either, when he tried. Trentin rode Sagan off his wheel. Sagan just didn't have it.

This wasn't about Sagan's decision making, and anyone who isn't bringing respect for the very physical reality that is racing.

Sagan probably should have (and could have) gone with Nibali when he attacked. Instead Sagan tried halfheartedly and undecided later and again on the descend. He then stopped chasing when he saw Kwiatkowski was in his wheel. Sagan certainly screwed up today. Either attack or wait for the sprint, the other options that he chose didn't make sense and in the end probably cost him unnecessary energy for the sprint.

Sometimes you make the right decision. Sometimes you dont. You can only say after the race what you should have done and which is very easy to do.

Nibali got a bigger gap then they probably expected and the sprinters and their teams reacted too late. It happens. Great ride by Nibali.

But everyone could have told sagan, stop chasing, when Nibali was in front. Even if they had caught nibali there is no way sagan could have won after that effort. I'm super happy about todays result but as a sagan fan you have to be disappointed since this isn't even the first time he has made this mistake.

Sagan was only in the front on the descent. Tryna bridge the gap. He saw everybody was there and pulled to side when they came to the flat. He probably went to the front in first place because he knew they shouldnt have let Nibali been given that big of a gap and they should have followed him when he attacked. I think he already knew at that point they probably was not gonna catch Nibali, but they still came close.

So not following the attack, after the race, was the mistake. But hey, maybe he just didnt have the day today but he was still there at the end. This race is a lottery to win and Sagan still has time to find the winning formula for this race. Let´s see how the rest of the classics campaign goes.

 

[Blanco]

Re: Re:

Don't understand people saying Sagan was riding defensively, only thinking about Kwiatkoski.

This is a physical test. He got beat. Nibali moved faster than Oss, for longer. Sagan couldn't make it up either, when he tried. Trentin rode Sagan off his wheel. Sagan just didn't have it.

This wasn't about Sagan's decision making, and anyone who isn't bringing respect for the very physical reality that is racing.

Sagan probably should have (and could have) gone with Nibali when he attacked. Instead Sagan tried halfheartedly and undecided later and again on the descend. He then stopped chasing when he saw Kwiatkowski was in his wheel. Sagan certainly screwed up today. Either attack or wait for the sprint, the other options that he chose didn't make sense and in the end probably cost him unnecessary energy for the sprint.

I'll have to wait for a replay and watch the attack again, but my intuition says Sagan would have gone if he could have. And while I don't remember seeing him jump at all; sometimes you just see an acceleration that you know is beyond your capability. And Nibali's attack was just that.

On the chase, attacking out to bridge solo isn't just a button to push and you go away. And grinding on the front of the group is really hard too. No where in the race did Sagan show he had the fitness to do either of those things. I point to Trentin's move as evidence to that. He rode Sagan off his wheel, as I remember it. That doesn't happen to someone who could have but chose not to. It happens to a rider who knows what he should be doing, but can't.

If you still want to say racing is about decision making and not the watts on the bike, then at least agree, that today, Sagan's legs made the decision for him.

And you really believe in this? Nibali's acceleration (on freaking Poggio :surprised: ) was beyond Sagan's capability! He screwed it up, honestly. Nibali's attack was perfectly timed though, nobody expected it and no one marked it, Sagan choose to rely on his team (Oss), and then on decent he choose not, and then he choosed to chase himself, and then again not to chase, and then he sprinted. You can't win like that, of course. He's a great rider, but he blew up today.
Of Course, I don't want to take anything from the ride of Vincenzo the Great!

 

[DFA123]

The "Ewan could have won" statements are pretty poor logic.

Essentially, you are saying "If Nibali didn't attack . . ." Or "If Nibali wasn't there ..." But if that was the case, one of the main favorites would have certainly put in a powerful attack near the top, with good chances that a small group would get away as usually happens. Or, if no one went away over the top, the power sprint trains would have come into play, and the finale would have been completely different.

It's one thing to say "if so and so had not finished first" on a summit finish, then the 2d place rider who also soloed to the finish would have won. In this race, however, the moment Nibali attacked at a spot--where typically only pretenders, not favorites, usually attack--the race was tactically turned upside down. Which is also why it was such a brilliant and gutsy move!

I think you're reading too much into it. It's just natural because he won the sprint so comfortably, to speculate that he had great legs and would have been a big (and somewhat surprising) contender for the win. Certainly one to look out for next year.

 

[italoc]

May I also suggest that Sagan doesn't mind at all Nibali winning here? The two are long-time friends, and Sagan would rather have him winning than losing to Kwiat & Co.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Don't understand people saying Sagan was riding defensively, only thinking about Kwiatkoski.

This is a physical test. He got beat. Nibali moved faster than Oss, for longer. Sagan couldn't make it up either, when he tried. Trentin rode Sagan off his wheel. Sagan just didn't have it.

This wasn't about Sagan's decision making, and anyone who isn't bringing respect for the very physical reality that is racing.

Sagan probably should have (and could have) gone with Nibali when he attacked. Instead Sagan tried halfheartedly and undecided later and again on the descend. He then stopped chasing when he saw Kwiatkowski was in his wheel. Sagan certainly screwed up today. Either attack or wait for the sprint, the other options that he chose didn't make sense and in the end probably cost him unnecessary energy for the sprint.

I'll have to wait for a replay and watch the attack again, but my intuition says Sagan would have gone if he could have. And while I don't remember seeing him jump at all; sometimes you just see an acceleration that you know is beyond your capability. And Nibali's attack was just that.

On the chase, attacking out to bridge solo isn't just a button to push and you go away. And grinding on the front of the group is really hard too. No where in the race did Sagan show he had the fitness to do either of those things. I point to Trentin's move as evidence to that. He rode Sagan off his wheel, as I remember it. That doesn't happen to someone who could have but chose not to. It happens to a rider who knows what he should be doing, but can't.

If you still want to say racing is about decision making and not the watts on the bike, then at least agree, that today, Sagan's legs made the decision for him.

And you really believe in this? Nibali's acceleration (on freaking Poggio :surprised: ) was beyond Sagan's capability! He screwed it up, honestly. Nibali's attack was perfectly timed though, nobody expected it and no one marked it, Sagan choose to rely on his team (Oss), and then on decent he choose not, and then he choosed to chase himself, and then again not to chase, and then he sprinted. You can't win like that, of course. He's a great rider, but he blew up today.
Of Course, I don't want to take anything from the ride of Vincenzo the Great!

Yeah, it's highly probable that Sagan could have followed Nibali comfortably. This is the Poggio, not Stelvio. But Nibali wouldn't have worked with him, given he had Colbrelli behind, so then Sagan would have had to go solo or drop back. Sending Oss or Burghardt (if he hadn't done that ridiculously pointless move at the bottom of the climb) to cover the attack would have been a nice move - put perhaps they genuinely couldn't have followed Nibali.

 

[Sciatic]

The "Ewan could have won" statements are pretty poor logic.

Essentially, you are saying "If Nibali didn't attack . . ." Or "If Nibali wasn't there ..." But if that was the case, one of the main favorites would have certainly put in a powerful attack near the top, with good chances that a small group would get away as usually happens. Or, if no one went away over the top, the power sprint trains would have come into play, and the finale would have been completely different.

It's one thing to say "if so and so had not finished first" on a summit finish, then the 2d place rider who also soloed to the finish would have won. In this race, however, the moment Nibali attacked at a spot--where typically only pretenders, not favorites, usually attack--the race was tactically turned upside down. Which is also why it was such a brilliant and gutsy move!

I think you're reading too much into it. . .

You must know me-- I always read too much into things

 

[tobydawq]

Re: Re:

Don't understand people saying Sagan was riding defensively, only thinking about Kwiatkoski.

This is a physical test. He got beat. Nibali moved faster than Oss, for longer. Sagan couldn't make it up either, when he tried. Trentin rode Sagan off his wheel. Sagan just didn't have it.

This wasn't about Sagan's decision making, and anyone who isn't bringing respect for the very physical reality that is racing.

Sagan probably should have (and could have) gone with Nibali when he attacked. Instead Sagan tried halfheartedly and undecided later and again on the descend. He then stopped chasing when he saw Kwiatkowski was in his wheel. Sagan certainly screwed up today. Either attack or wait for the sprint, the other options that he chose didn't make sense and in the end probably cost him unnecessary energy for the sprint.

I'll have to wait for a replay and watch the attack again, but my intuition says Sagan would have gone if he could have. And while I don't remember seeing him jump at all; sometimes you just see an acceleration that you know is beyond your capability. And Nibali's attack was just that.

On the chase, attacking out to bridge solo isn't just a button to push and you go away. And grinding on the front of the group is really hard too. No where in the race did Sagan show he had the fitness to do either of those things. I point to Trentin's move as evidence to that. He rode Sagan off his wheel, as I remember it. That doesn't happen to someone who could have but chose not to. It happens to a rider who knows what he should be doing, but can't.

If you still want to say racing is about decision making and not the watts on the bike, then at least agree, that today, Sagan's legs made the decision for him.

And you really believe in this? Nibali's acceleration (on freaking Poggio :surprised: ) was beyond Sagan's capability! He screwed it up, honestly. Nibali's attack was perfectly timed though, nobody expected it and no one marked it, Sagan choose to rely on his team (Oss), and then on decent he choose not, and then he choosed to chase himself, and then again not to chase, and then he sprinted. You can't win like that, of course. He's a great rider, but he blew up today.
Of Course, I don't want to take anything from the ride of Vincenzo the Great!

Yeah, it's highly probable that Sagan could have followed Nibali comfortably. This is the Poggio, not Stelvio. But Nibali wouldn't have worked with him, given he had Colbrelli behind, so then Sagan would have had to go solo or drop back. Sending Oss or Burghardt (if he hadn't done that ridiculously pointless move at the bottom of the climb) to cover the attack would have been a nice move - put perhaps they genuinely couldn't have followed Nibali.

I don't think so. Nibali has such a poor sprint that Sagan would have towed him to the line, caught a little bit of air with 3-400 metres to go and then won the sprint anyway.

MSR 2012 proves that.

It was really dumb racing by Sagan but he probably didn't think a Poggio move would be successful.

 

[SKSemtex]

Re: Re:

Don't understand people saying Sagan was riding defensively, only thinking about Kwiatkoski.

This is a physical test. He got beat. Nibali moved faster than Oss, for longer. Sagan couldn't make it up either, when he tried. Trentin rode Sagan off his wheel. Sagan just didn't have it.

This wasn't about Sagan's decision making, and anyone who isn't bringing respect for the very physical reality that is racing.

Sagan probably should have (and could have) gone with Nibali when he attacked. Instead Sagan tried halfheartedly and undecided later and again on the descend. He then stopped chasing when he saw Kwiatkowski was in his wheel. Sagan certainly screwed up today. Either attack or wait for the sprint, the other options that he chose didn't make sense and in the end probably cost him unnecessary energy for the sprint.

I'll have to wait for a replay and watch the attack again, but my intuition says Sagan would have gone if he could have. And while I don't remember seeing him jump at all; sometimes you just see an acceleration that you know is beyond your capability. And Nibali's attack was just that.

On the chase, attacking out to bridge solo isn't just a button to push and you go away. And grinding on the front of the group is really hard too. No where in the race did Sagan show he had the fitness to do either of those things. I point to Trentin's move as evidence to that. He rode Sagan off his wheel, as I remember it. That doesn't happen to someone who could have but chose not to. It happens to a rider who knows what he should be doing, but can't.

If you still want to say racing is about decision making and not the watts on the bike, then at least agree, that today, Sagan's legs made the decision for him.

And you really believe in this? Nibali's acceleration (on freaking Poggio :surprised: ) was beyond Sagan's capability! He screwed it up, honestly. Nibali's attack was perfectly timed though, nobody expected it and no one marked it, Sagan choose to rely on his team (Oss), and then on decent he choose not, and then he choosed to chase himself, and then again not to chase, and then he sprinted. You can't win like that, of course. He's a great rider, but he blew up today.
Of Course, I don't want to take anything from the ride of Vincenzo the Great!

If you saw the race last year you know what is Sagan capable on Poggio. If he had the legs he would have definitely gone with Nibali. It would be the pleasure for him to be in that break.

He just simply does not have those legs.

 

[MagnusMagnussen]

Greipel, broken collarbone after crashing in the descent of the Poggio

https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20180317_03414737

 

[HelloDolly]

Thanks Nibali ...a nice bet and good few quid at great odds ....
I have him also for the Tour and the Worlds .....

As for Trentin costing Ewan the race ?/What a load of rubbish ..if anything Trentin out front helped Ewan get second as forced Matthews & others to chase while Ewan was sitting pretty saving energy ...

 

[phanatic]

IDK if Sagan has the same explosiveness as Cance to follow Nibali's uphill attacks. Of course Cance was criticized for being a one trick pony (destroy everyone) and his attempt failed in 2012 anyhow. In any case, the bridge and attack was amazing; Nibali jumped ahead of the peloton without showing them his real strength. I would love to hear what the DS's were saying when he dropped the hammer.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Yeah, it's highly probable that Sagan could have followed Nibali comfortably. This is the Poggio, not Stelvio. But Nibali wouldn't have worked with him, given he had Colbrelli behind, so then Sagan would have had to go solo or drop back. Sending Oss or Burghardt (if he hadn't done that ridiculously pointless move at the bottom of the climb) to cover the attack would have been a nice move - put perhaps they genuinely couldn't have followed Nibali.

I don't think so. Nibali has such a poor sprint that Sagan would have towed him to the line, caught a little bit of air with 3-400 metres to go and then won the sprint anyway.

MSR 2012 proves that.

Well yeah, but that's basically going solo. And I'm not sure Sagan would have held off the bunch in the way that Nibali did; I would guess the other teams would get organised a lot quicker than they did, if it were Sagan off the front.

I agree that what he did was stupid though. Either go on the Poggio or stay hidden and wait for the sprint - gambling that it will come back together. Absolutely, under no circumstances, lead the peloton in the last 3km.

 

[MartinGT]

Re:

Thanks Nibali ...a nice bet and good few quid at great odds ....
I have him also for the Tour and the Worlds .....

As for Trentin costing Ewan the race ?/What a load of rubbish ..if anything Trentin out front helped Ewan get second as forced Matthews & others to chase while Ewan was sitting pretty saving energy ...

What odds did you get for today? Nice one!

 

[Climbing]

But to be honest Nibali role was to mark attackers on the Poggio, without working.
When he and the team noticed that he got like 6-7 seconds immediately (TBM sudden stop at the front created a big gap), he was told to just go.
Then he accelerated on the harder part of the Poggio and after the descent it was a while before teams could organize the chase.
Of course the favorites watched a bit at each other and that just was just barely enough to do it.

Everything did go the perfect way for Nibali, and for him to win MSR there was no other way.
Still, a legendary ride.

 

[jmdirt]

Re:

The only 2 guys that can be genuinely happy with their performance today are Nibali and Ewan. Everyone else failed.

That's just silly! Sure in the purest sense only the winner and his team succeed and the rest fail, and how did Ewan escape your failure meter...he didn't win either.

 

[bassano]

Re: Re:

I don't think so. Nibali has such a poor sprint that Sagan would have towed him to the line, caught a little bit of air with 3-400 metres to go and then won the sprint anyway.

MSR 2012 proves that.

It was really dumb racing by Sagan but he probably didn't think a Poggio move would be successful.

Do not be so naive, they let go Nibali because they believed he have no chance anyway and will be catch (thanks god he won), do you think that they would let go Sagan? With Nibali? After what he did last year?
I do not think so