Milano - Sanremo 2023, one day monument, March 18

[DJ Sprtsch]

And the last 7 editions have seen very different winning moves. I'd say only 2017 and 2020 are similar.

2016: bunch sprint
2017: violent attack on the Poggio, then 3 man sprint
2018: solo from the Poggio
2019: reduced bunch sprint
2020: violent attack on the Poggio, then sprint a deux
2021: attack on the flat
2022: attack on the descent

But somehow Zabel won it five times (almost six...), and Merckx seven times.
Zabel maybe due to the longer stretch in the end, or am I remembering it wrong?

 

[tobydawq]

But somehow Zabel won it five times (almost six...), and Merckx seven times.
Zabel maybe due to the longer stretch in the end, or am I remembering it wrong?

Zabel won four times, almost six (besides the Freire blunder, he also won the sprint for second behind a surprise attack from Tchmil another year).

But yes, remarkable. Back then, it was almost a sprint every year.

 

[Blanco]

Alpecin will win. Van Der Poel will win from a small group, or he will lead out Philipsen if a larger group comes.
If not them, then Gaviria with a 400m sprint.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Each Jumbo and UAE have one of two strongest riders for Saturday and if I was one of them I'd form an alliance with the other and share the work between the Cipressa and the last meters of Poggio to drop/tire out as many riders as possible. Then, on that last steeper part of Poggio, Pogacar goes, van Aert follows and both hope that it sticks with no more than 1-2 passengers (MvdP? Mohoric?).

This alliance could work as WVA was the key guy neutralizing Pog's attack (and burning himself in the process) last year. It won't happen though. Everybody will just try to hang on there when Pog attacks.

 

[King Of The Wolds]

If Mohoric is up there, and rides the descent like last year, I'm not sure anyone has the skills and balls to go with him, even Pidcock. That's assuming he makes it down in one piece again.

 

[SafeBet]

If Mohoric is up there, and rides the descent like last year, I'm not sure anyone has the skills and balls to go with him, even Pidcock. That's assuming he makes it down in one piece again.

Would be interesting to see whether Pidcock can handle Mohoric going down the Poggio.

 

[Nick2413]

If Mohoric is up there, and rides the descent like last year, I'm not sure anyone has the skills and balls to go with him, even Pidcock. That's assuming he makes it down in one piece again.

That still requires the chasing group to be small and not work great together. Watching the finish again, I think they could’ve made it back if they cooperated better. I think the bigger possibility is a couple riders getting away and being joined on the descent or if they don’t work together.

 

[Lequack]

Maybe Remco should come from the volcano and win it.

 

[Lequack]

As long as he had little to no symptoms then he will be fine.

Team says no

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635649483298992130

View: https://twitter.com/GreenEDGEteam/status/1635649483298992130

 

[search]

If Mohoric is up there, and rides the descent like last year, I'm not sure anyone has the skills and balls to go with him, even Pidcock.

will also be interesting to see if others copy his dropper-post approach. So far I have seen/read no indication that anyone plans to.

 

[Berniece]

In what world was any of the Paris Nice stages comparable to MSR? Literally no way to tell from Paris Nice if De Lie is in top form or not. Him losing wheels in a chaotic sprint doesn't say anything about his form. It could say something about his chances to place himself in good position before the Cipressa and the Poggio, but literally nothing about his legs. The cancelled stage could've showed something, but well it was cancelled so...

Not sure if he meant it like this since there might have been translation issues, but in an interview with La Dèrnière heure, translated by Wielerflits he says he won't attack in MSR because you need to be much stronger than he currently is. I don't know if he means, I'm just not as good as the best of the world, or that he means that he currently is not in good enough form.

 

[yaco]

Team says no

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635649483298992130

View: https://twitter.com/GreenEDGEteam/status/1635649483298992130

A bad day for the team with the Kristen Faulkner disqualification from Strade Bianche - Jayco will have no impact on MSR.

 

[SafeBet]

That still requires the chasing group to be small and not work great together. Watching the finish again, I think they could’ve made it back if they cooperated better.

But that's always the case and yet in most scenarios a chasing group doesn't work well together.

 

[postmanhat]

Would be interesting to see whether Pidcock can handle Mohoric going down the Poggio.

Very, as someone else getting away with him would obviously change the whole dynamic of the last 5K. But who knows what effect his crashes in Tirreno had?

I seem to remember Kragh Andersen being one of the animators on the Poggio last year and finished 7th. Now he's working for/with MVDP so Alpecin are likely to have a big impact as well.

 

[Red Rick]

But that's always the case and yet in most scenarios a chasing group doesn't work well together.

I don't remember one good chase after the Poggio.

 

[jono]

will also be interesting to see if others copy his dropper-post approach. So far I have seen/read no indication that anyone plans to.

How many teams even have the ability to do so (ie: how many teams have bikes with standard diameter round seatposts)?

 

[Lequack]

De Lie is a bit unrealistic

"Arnaud De Lie hopes for snow and rain in Milan-San Remo debut"

Arnaud De Lie hopes for snow and rain in Milan-San Remo debut

Sprinter hoping to play two-hander with teammate Caleb Ewan at first Monument of the season

www.cyclingnews.com

 

[Samamba]

De Lie is a bit unrealistic

"Arnaud De Lie hopes for snow and rain in Milan-San Remo debut"

Arnaud De Lie hopes for snow and rain in Milan-San Remo debut

Sprinter hoping to play two-hander with teammate Caleb Ewan at first Monument of the season

www.cyclingnews.com

It was more of a general statement that he prefers bad weather over good weather, not that he really hopes for it on Saturday as there is no chance it will be bad.

 

[Cookster15]

Would be interesting to see whether Pidcock can handle Mohoric going down the Poggio.

I think you might be underestimating Pidcock here? Dropper seat post aside I'd say Pidcock was a far more skilled descender? It would be funny to see Mohoric matched by the conventionally equipped Pidcock.

 

[search]

I think you might be underestimating Pidcock here? Dropper seat post aside I'd say Pidcock was a far more skilled descender? It would be funny to see Mohoric matched by the conventionally equipped Pidcock.

well, Mohoric has widely been seen as the best descender in the peloton for the past 10 years or so. Since "super tuck" was forbidden, others may have closed the gap, but personally I still wouldn't think Pidcock is really more skilled.

 

[topcat]

Would be interesting to see whether Pidcock can handle Mohoric going down the Poggio.

He can’t but I don’t think either will be there in the finale.

 

[Sciatic]

But somehow Zabel won it five times (almost six...), and Merckx seven times.
Zabel maybe due to the longer stretch in the end, or am I remembering it wrong?

Since 2011, having the winner of MSR come from a big bunch sprint (such as Demare’s victory) has become more a rarity. Even two of the editions won by sprinters—Goss and Ciolek—were instances of a single sprinter barely hanging on when the elite rouleurs attacked on the Poggio, then sat on the wheels of the attackers, gambling the others would bring back solo attacks, until they won the sprint finish.

If a sprinter wins Sat, I imagine it would be in the same kind of circumstance.

 

[Sciatic]

That still requires the chasing group to be small and not work great together. Watching the finish again, I think they could’ve made it back if they cooperated better. I think the bigger possibility is a couple riders getting away and being joined on the descent or if they don’t work together.

The evidence from the past few years points to the likely hood that a small chasing group will absolutely not work well together.
ed. Safebet beat me to it

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

I cheer for Girmay on Saturday. He could win his first monument there…

 

[gregrowlerson]

He can’t but I don’t think either will be there in the finale.

What's your usual descending technique by the way? Or will your gap be large enough to allow you to soft-pedal?