Milano - Sanremo 2023, one day monument, March 18

[yaco]

I'm curious whether De Lie is already up to the task. Based on what he has shown this year so far I wouldn't be surprised to see him sprinting for the win despite his age.

If a miracle happens and both DeLie and Ewan are in the final - Who does the sprint?

 

[yaco]

GCN promo poster. They didn't even put Pog on it.

I have my doubts whether Grmay can make the final on exposed form.

 

[Red Rick]

If a miracle happens and both DeLie and Ewan are in the final - Who does the sprint?

Both.

Points system baby

 

[Krzysztof_O]

GCN promo poster. They didn't even put Pog on it.

Somebody show Pog this poster.

 

[tobydawq]

Both.

Points system baby

In a monument?

 

[Lequack]

Points system table

 

[SafeBet]

In a monument?

Regardless of the point system I would have them both sprint. None of them has much experience as a leadout and you have no idea who would fair better in that sprint anyway (mainly because there's no track record for De Lie).

 

[Samamba]

If it happens (It won't) De Lie should probably go a bit early with Ewan in his wheel. Ewan as a leadout doesn't work, and he can't close gaps either. De Lie on the other side somewhat likes long sprints anyways.

But again, I really don't think De Lie will survive (he probably will be in bad position and I also think his climbing is a bit overrated) and if they both somewhat survive I doubt it will be for the win. If it's not for the win they should definitely both sprint.

 

[Samamba]

Don't you have to look at his latest performance instead of a performance of a month ago? He wasn't that great at Paris-Nice

In what world was any of the Paris Nice stages comparable to MSR? Literally no way to tell from Paris Nice if De Lie is in top form or not. Him losing wheels in a chaotic sprint doesn't say anything about his form. It could say something about his chances to place himself in good position before the Cipressa and the Poggio, but literally nothing about his legs. The cancelled stage could've showed something, but well it was cancelled so...

Yeah, from what we've saw in that race and in Omloop, I definitely don't see his chances being much worse than Pedersen. We know he sometimes struggles with positioning in bunch sprints, so his team will obviously have to make sure he doesn't end up on the back foot at the bottom of Poggio.

Pedersen has proven a million times he can climb pretty well. Even in stage 4 of Paris Nice this year he was with the last 30 riders still helping Skjelmose. De Lie has literally not proven anything that's close to that. Some really good 1min or 2min efforts in a normal race don't say anything about a 10min effort followed by a 6min effort after 270km. He has never done the 6min watts he needs to survive the Poggio in a race (only on training camp being fresh but that doesn't say anything). People look at Besseges and see De Lie winning on a 800m hill, or see De Lie doing great on the Muur, or see him winning that 3rd stage after surviving 2 hills and think he has a chance at MSR, but those performances just aren't comparable. For example, in that 3rd stage in Besseges he got dropped 2 times, on like 5min hills and the watts he put out weren't anything close to what's needed in MSR.

So go back 3 years in time and sure, he would have a chance, with the peloton not racing Cipressa. But times have changed. A tailwind is expected, the chances De Lie will be at the front on the top of the Poggio are incredibly small. Give him a year or 2 and he will be there. People get potential mixed up with actual current level I feel like. Those performances were really good because he's just 20 years old and the kid didn't even know what a power meter was 3 years ago.

That being said, he will probably start the Cipressa in like 60th position anyways. And if he doesn't I hope he proves me wrong and drops Pogacar on the Poggio.

 

[frisenfruitig]

De Lie did show he still has a strong sprint after a tough race at Omloop. I don't think he will be among the first to get over the Poggio but perhaps he could make it in a reduced sprint.

 

[limak_]

Each Jumbo and UAE have one of two strongest riders for Saturday and if I was one of them I'd form an alliance with the other and share the work between the Cipressa and the last meters of Poggio to drop/tire out as many riders as possible. Then, on that last steeper part of Poggio, Pogacar goes, van Aert follows and both hope that it sticks with no more than 1-2 passengers (MvdP? Mohoric?).

 

[Lequack]

Wout without his Red Bull helmet? What is the world coming to.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1635391797206876164

View: https://twitter.com/Domestique___/status/1635391797206876164

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

Cosnefroy winning move on the Cipressa, heard it here first!

 

[tobydawq]

What is the point of the "one day monument" part of the title anyway?

Isn't that like calling it a stage race Grand Tour?

 

[Anderis]

What is the point of the "one day monument" part of the title anyway?

Isn't that like calling it a stage race Grand Tour?

So if the race started before midnight and finished after, making it a two day race, wouldn't it be a monument anymore?

 

[BR2]

I think Girmay can place well, not win though. Not much mentioning of Pidcock here? I also think van der Poel can win. His climbing seems to lack, but his general strength and sprint seem fine. I also seem to expect a less selective finale than others.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Not only will Ewan be there on the Poggio but he will attack and take the victory in legendary, shocking fashion.

 

[Sciatic]

I think Girmay can place well, not win though. Not much mentioning of Pidcock here? I also think van der Poel can win. His climbing seems to lack, but his general strength and sprint seem fine. I also seem to expect a less selective finale than others.

Pidcock was bandaged up from his crash this past weekend—but not sure how serious the injuries?

 

[Berniece]

In what world was any of the Paris Nice stages comparable to MSR? Literally no way to tell from Paris Nice if De Lie is in top form or not. Him losing wheels in a chaotic sprint doesn't say anything about his form. It could say something about his chances to place himself in good position before the Cipressa and the Poggio, but literally nothing about his legs. The cancelled stage could've showed something, but well it was cancelled so...

Staff of Lotto said he needed time to recover, which gave me an indication that his form was going down. But I’ve been wrong about him multiple times, so who knows.

 

[tobydawq]

So if the race started before midnight and finished after, making it a two day race, wouldn't it be a monument anymore?

Well...

 

[gregrowlerson]

It says everything about this race that its last ten winners are all different.

 

[OlavEH]

I once hope to see VdP in peak form for this. To see what he could do with a massive attack on the last couple of kms on Poggio.

 

[SafeBet]

It says everything about this race that its last ten winners are all different.

And the last 7 editions have seen very different winning moves. I'd say only 2017 and 2020 are similar.

2016: bunch sprint
2017: violent attack on the Poggio, then 3 man sprint
2018: solo from the Poggio
2019: reduced bunch sprint
2020: violent attack on the Poggio, then sprint a deux
2021: attack on the flat
2022: attack on the descent

 

[Lequack]

 

[gregrowlerson]

And the last 7 editions have seen very different winning moves. I'd say only 2017 and 2020 are similar.

2016: bunch sprint
2017: violent attack on the Poggio, then 3 man sprint
2018: solo from the Poggio
2019: reduced bunch sprint
2020: violent attack on the Poggio, then sprint a deux
2021: attack on the flat
2022: attack on the descent

What's also incredible is that this vast variety is confined to within 10 kms or so of racing. There isn't another race anything like it on the calendar.