Milano - Sanremo 2023, one day monument, March 18

[Red Rick]

Attacking so early and on the short part of the climb with headwind also made it easier to draft him.

All of his attacks were in the headwind?

I think it's nearly impossible for Pogacar to clean Van Aert off his wheel when he's already on it on a 4% gradient. He needs to make reaction time work in his favor.

If he waits for the final ramp, he has a bigger chance to get a gap, but I also doubt he gets enough time because he's likely to bleed it right back in the descent.

 

[Red Rick]

Take it to the clinic.

If you wanna go to the Clinic to talk about former Sanremo winners that's your imperative, but really it's you that's violating the Clinic talk rule right now

 

[topcat]

If you wanna go to the Clinic to talk about former Sanremo winners that's your imperative, but really it's you that's violating the Clinic talk rule right now

I'm wondering are you allowed to even mention the word clinic in the prr forum?

 

[Devil's Elbow]

No Pidcock btw.

Pidcock out, Matthews out, starting to feel like the build-up last year where a new (outside) favourite was forced to drop out seemingly every day.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

When you see stuff sometimes like Pogacar climbing long, steep Cols on the big chainring, or de Lie on the big chainring on the Mur of Geraardsbergen, you realize cycling changes.

The Capi in the finale of Sanremo, Mele/Cervo/Berta, and then Cipressa and Poggio, actually all are low angle… Small gradients, not too long. Pogacar or Ganna will climb these on a 53 or 55 chainring probably. Ganna is superstrong on these 4-5% climbs (see UAE or San Juan regularly).

Positioning will be important when they enter Poggio, this slight right turn. Normally a crazily fast and full peloton starts this climb. Super nervous. Tailormade actually for Ganna, in his home race.

Descents of Cipressa or particularly Poggio always scare us. Fingers crossed everything goes well. Centimeters decide between maintaining a gap (Mohoric) and hospital (remember Moletta, Kopp). Devastating pictures if a rider is unlucky there, like poor Moletta, hanging from the stone wall with a broken thigh.

This is a crazy finale, with technical and slippery descents. I hope everyone finishes safely. And the winner? Who‘d have expected Mohoric to win in 2022? Also this year, the race will be open.

I‘d be glad if Turgis won here, some day, but am not so confident about his current shape. But a Top-10 is always possible for him…

 

[Taxus4a]

Os course descent of Poggio is today much more dessisive than the climbs...30-20 years ago, in times of Sean Kelly, it was different. I think another small climb must be added before Cipressa, to give the Poggio the descissive paper he used to have.

 

[Netserk]

I just watched it again because I thought I must've misremembered. Nope, Nibali attacked with Gerrans in his wheel and then Cancellara closed the gap to them by himself.

You are quite right, thank you for the correction.

 

[topcat]

There are many interesting sub-plots in Saturday's epic encounter. Perhaps the most important one is the MSR battle between van Aert and Nibali.
Best results of each:
van Aert: 1, 3, 8
Nibali: 1, 3, 8, 8
So Nibali has a narrow lead. Will it change on Saturday? One of the great imponderables.

 

[Sciatic]

Lol that Gerrans MSR win is probably the 'best' wheelsucking win I've ever seen. He really made an art out of it.

Ugh. Gerran’s win was also possible because Cancellara was willing to just stay on the front mashing the pedals, a practice netted him several podiums but no wins (his win came on an attack with a Km to go.

 

[Sciatic]

Pidcock out, Matthews out, starting to feel like the build-up last year where a new (outside) favourite was forced to drop out seemingly every day.

I don’t see how that diminishes the race much at all when we’ve got Van Aert MVDP Ala, Mohoric there, but I know folks all have their favs.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

There are many interesting sub-plots in Saturday's epic encounter. Perhaps the most important one is the MSR battle between van Aert and Nibali.
Best results of each:
van Aert: 1, 3, 8
Nibali: 1, 3, 8, 8
So Nibali has a narrow lead. Will it change on Saturday? One of the great imponderables.

Once Van Aert overtakes Vincenzo on Sanremo he can go for beating him in Lombardia, Giro, Tour , vuelta

 

[gerundium]

The charm of MSR has always been the enormous unpredictability of it. How often does the pre-race favourite actually win it? With all the giants staring each other down i expect another unexpected winner on saturday. I will go with Ivan Garcia Cortina to get away on the flat after the small leading group gets caught by the bigger second group as my prediction this time.

 

[Pantani_lives]

The fact that Freire in 2010 is still the last repeat winner makes clear that this race is hard to dominate. "The easiest to ride, the hardest to win," has often been said about this monument.

Usually nothing important happens before the final 10 km. Then it all goes very fast. This most nervous of classics takes a combination of explosiveness, tactics, technique, luck and daredevilry. The average age of the winner is much younger than in the cobbled classics.

The course is mostly flat with two molehills towards the end. The Poggio isn't steep enough for Pogi. The best chance is for someone who can follow on the hills and finish with a good sprint. Van Aert or Mohoric might become the first repeat winner in thirteen years, but it might just as well be an outsider.

 

[Boes]

Once Van Aert overtakes Vincenzo on Sanremo he can go for beating him in Lombardia, Giro, Tour , vuelta

Ok, in the mean time we'll wait for Nibs to overcome WVA in Flanders, Roubaix, Green jersey Tour...
Doesn't make sence to put those 2 together.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

The course is mostly flat with two molehills towards the end. The Poggio isn't steep enough for Pogi. The best chance is for someone who can follow on the hills and finish with a good sprint. Van Aert or Mohoric might become the first repeat winner in thirteen years, but it might just as well be an outsider.

Pogacar also has a good sprint but won't be favoured against the likes of MVP or Girmay (with WVA it depends on the race pace and difficulty). He would prefer to be alone or small group without too many super fast guys. He may perform two attacks: on the Poggio and in the final kilometers (counting on hesitance of his chief rivals).

 

[Lequack]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1636087020303917057

View: https://twitter.com/RealStephens/status/1636087020303917057

 

[Breh]

Ok, in the mean time we'll wait for Nibs to overcome WVA in Flanders, Roubaix, Green jersey Tour...
Doesn't make sence to put those 2 together.

Well both Van Aert and Nibali have 0 wins in Roubaix or Flanders.

 

[Gratemans]

Ugh. I really had a feeling that this time, Matthews was gonna take it. He was the ultimate outsider for me this year. I'm not even a fan (I'm pretty much indifferent about the guy, although he really scored some fan-points with me at the TDF stage to Mende last year).
I just really hate I don't get to see wether I was right!

 

[Potomac]

GCN talking about its coverage from kilometer zero. If there was ever a race that you could miss the first 200 km, this is it.

 

[BR2]

GCN talking about its coverage from kilometer zero. If there was ever a race that you could miss the first 275 km, this is it.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

@BR2 cheeky

 

[frisenfruitig]

Lol imagine having to listen to that Kirby idiot for 6 hours.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Eastern wind expected on saturday, about 20 km/h. Similarly to last year, it should favour attacks in the second half of the Poggio and the opposite in the first part. Pog should keep his powder dry at least until the easternmost switchback 2.3 km before the top (he started attacking before it last year) or until a few hundred meters after Sanctuario Madonna Guardia (when it gets steepest) 1.3 km before the top.

 

[Red Rick]

Eastern wind expected on saturday, about 20 km/h. Similarly to last year, it should favour attacks in the second half of the Poggio and the opposite in the first part. Pog should keep his powder dry at least until the easternmost switchback 2.5 km before the top (he started attacking before it last year) or until 300 m after Sanctuario Madonna Guardia (when it gets steepest) 1.3 km before the top.

Yeah he should wait for the part where they normally attack. If you'd overlay it with the profile, once the switchbacks end and tailwind starts, you're onto a flat section before the only steeper part.

You also come into the one 7% section with speed. It should still be very hard to get top guys off the wheel there. They shoudl probably try to have like 2 guys behind Pogacar to let the wheel go when he attacks there.

If he gets like 5 seconds, it depends on who's behind, cause I think he still needs group 2 dynamics over better descenders.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Yeah he should wait for the part where they normally attack. If you'd overlay it with the profile, once the switchbacks end and tailwind starts, you're onto a flat section before the only steeper part.

You also come into the one 7% section with speed. It should still be very hard to get top guys off the wheel there. They shoudl probably try to have like 2 guys behind Pogacar to let the wheel go when he attacks there.

If he gets like 5 seconds, it depends on who's behind, cause I think he still needs group 2 dynamics over better descenders.

Just rewatched Poggio from last year. His streak of accelerations was really impressive, it takes super-fast recovery to repeat those surges. He definitely lost much energy due to that early attack against the wind. I he focuses his attacks more he can get a gap but it will be him vs the rest of the world there so a tough task.