Milano - Sanremo 2025, one day monument, March 22

[Sciatic]

Nokere Koerse this Wednesday

Thanks—it’s on my calendar.

 

[Monsi]

Milano-Torino on Wednesday too. Superga is back

 

[kn0s]

For me it would be rather anticlimactic if Pogacar actually wins it. The story is better when it keeps eluding him.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

I love Milano-Sanremo. One of the top 5 one day races I look forward to the most each year.

I've said for years that Milan-Sanremo is the hardest monument for Pogacar to win, and I stand by that. It doesn't seem any easier this year.
Van der Poel we know is near impossible to drop on Poggio. Ganna is climbing great and will be almost impossible to drop. Pedersen is climbing exceptionally and will be hard to drop as well. Philipsen was climbing better than ever in Omloop. Matthews is always great here. Add in the likes of Girmay, Kooij, Milan etc.

Who's the most likely to succeed with a late attack? Ganna is probably the one. Stuyven always does well in Milan-Sanremo, but he should be on domestique duty, although I could see him following a late attack. Alaphililippe? Probably doesn't have it anymore. Healy? Mohoric I don't think has the form at the moment, and same for Van Gils and Hirschi. Cort's best chance to win is probably through a late attack and I think he potentially could pull it off, but I don't see him do it.

Looks like a fun edition!

My stars:

***** Philipsen
**** Van der Poel, Ganna
*** Pogacar, Pedersen, Milan
** Matthews, Pidcock, Mohoric, Girmay
* Magnier, Kooij, Cort, Stuyven, Van Gils

 

[Berniece]

Drop Pogacar on the descent? Maybe. Drop vdP? Ain't happening.

Whatever descending skills Pidcock has that inspired your comment, you gotta recognize that vdP's are on the same level.

Pidcock is a helluva rider, but I just can't imagine a scenario where he wins. But that's the beauty of this race, eh?

That’s why in a previous post I said that MVDP needs to sit on Pidcock’s wheel in the descent. If there are others between them he might get a gap.

 

[tobydawq]

For me it would be rather anticlimactic if Pogacar actually wins it. The story is better when it keeps eluding him.

I think that's contingent on him actually winning it eventually. I might have thought the same about Sagan but I can assure you that the anticlimactic thing was him not winning it and just get gradually worse and fizzling out in his later years.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So here we go again! What will Pogi try this time? Will Cipressa prophecy finally fulfill? Or will UAE try to bend Cipressa+Poggio to their will with their power again? His repeated attempts to win add spice to the race but as always the competition is versatile and very hard to beat. There are some descending daredevils (like Pidcock or Mohoric), versatile sprinters (like Philipsen or Matthews) and Pippo the Tank Engine who can utilize his power in a longer 2-km solo finish. And there's MVP, who actually excels in every aspect of MSR finale (and yet his victory is far from certain).

 

[Gigs_98]

I don't think Pogacar will ever win if he doesn't try something different. I stand by my claim that a Cipressa attack could work if UAE nukes the Capi and Pogacar attacks sufficiently early. I don't think he can survive against a big peloton between Cipressa and Poggio but I don't think there would be a big peloton in that scenario. And if he attacks on the Poggio he should do it early. The entire "let Wellens do a leadout" thing doesn't work because everyone knows exactly when the acceleration is coming and Van der Poel will be perfectly positioned to follow. Just attack as soon as the Poggio starts, do it from 20th place in the peloton if need be, but put yourself in a position where Van der Poel and the rest has to close two bikelengths. I don't think he will win that way, but I think he increases his chances compared to what he did the last few years.

 

[Keldergoat]

Any wind direction updates on the Poggio? A fierce eastern tailwind like there has been all week could favour Pog's chances.

Windfinder - wind, wave & weather reports, forecasts & statistics worldwide

Wind and weather reports & forecasts for kitesurfers, windsurfers, surfers, sailors and paragliders for over 160,000 locations worldwide.

www.windfinder.com

 

[hfgon1]

I don't think Pogacar will ever win if he doesn't try something different. I stand by my claim that a Cipressa attack could work if UAE nukes the Capi and Pogacar attacks sufficiently early. I don't think he can survive against a big peloton between Cipressa and Poggio but I don't think there would be a big peloton in that scenario. And if he attacks on the Poggio he should do it early. The entire "let Wellens do a leadout" thing doesn't work because everyone knows exactly when the acceleration is coming and Van der Poel will be perfectly positioned to follow. Just attack as soon as the Poggio starts, do it from 20th place in the peloton if need be, but put yourself in a position where Van der Poel and the rest has to close two bikelengths. I don't think he will win that way, but I think he increases his chances compared to what he did the last few years.

A guy that finished the race 12th, 5th, 4th and 3rd doesnt need to change much in his approach. It is just not such a decisive race that a rider like him can expect to get away and win every time like in other races. Last year he was very close and had a gap that probably no one else than MVdP would have been able to close. And even then he wasnt far away from winning in the sprint.

If Pogacar stays as strong as he is right now the next 4-5 years I'm pretty sure he will win the race at some day. But it will also never be a race that he wins 4 times in a row.

 

[E_F_]

Perhaps UAE should try to have different rider attemps solo attacks on the Tre Cappi and Cipressa - force the other teams to set a hard pace - save a short leadout into the very bottom of the Poggio.

 

[Gigs_98]

A guy that finished the race 12th, 5th, 4th and 3rd doesnt need to change much in his approach. It is just not such a decisive race that a rider like him can expect to get away and win every time like in other races. Last year he was very close and had a gap that probably no one else than MVdP would have been able to close. And even then he wasnt far away from winning in the sprint.

If Pogacar stays as strong as he is right now the next 4-5 years I'm pretty sure he will win the race at some day. But it will also never be a race that he wins 4 times in a row.

He got a gap last year because he eased off and went for a 2nd time when MvdP didn't expect it. That's essentially what I want him to do but earlier because he's not a good enough descender to win with a 2 second gap on the top of the Poggio.

 

[Didinho]

I just think UAE will try the same as last years. And wanna start the climbs in front to set the pace. Other teams knows this and they were blocked last time so Pogi only had 1 or 2 riders in position.

Any news on his injuries after the crash? If he’s not 100% he’s not going solo on the Poggio.

Curious if they can drop Ganna and Pedersen in this form.

 

[Gigs_98]

Perhaps UAE should try to have different rider attemps solo attacks on the Tre Cappi and Cipressa - force the other teams to set a hard pace - save a short leadout into the very bottom of the Poggio.

I think in that case the sprinter teams just try to control the attack and reel it back midway through the Poggio. I don't think an attack at that point by any rider other than Pogacar and maybe Ganna or MvdP would make any team panic.

 

[E_F_]

I think in that case the sprinter teams just try to control the attack and reel it back midway through the Poggio. I don't think an attack at that point by any rider other than Pogacar and maybe Ganna or MvdP would make any team panic.

Hm... Perhaps not. Then they would have to have another teammate bridge, haha!

 

[RJH]

View: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0tdp4nrEBAg&pp=ygUTbWFsZWRldHRhIHByaW1hdmVyYQ%3D%3D


Sanremo anthem…

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Quite simply the best race of the year

 

[Rule #9 apostle]

Perhaps UAE should try to have different rider attemps solo attacks on the Tre Cappi and Cipressa - force the other teams to set a hard pace - save a short leadout into the very bottom of the Poggio.

For funky tactics, I have this (feverish?) vision of a Tim Wellens reverse lead out on the first slopes of the poggio. Its already in a line, tp lets the wheel go and dares mvdp, pidcock or whoever to close the gap. Best case scenario wellens gets a real gap, second scenario, tp can launch of the wheel of whoever chases.

 

[Red Rick]

I don't think Pogacar will ever win if he doesn't try something different. I stand by my claim that a Cipressa attack could work if UAE nukes the Capi and Pogacar attacks sufficiently early. I don't think he can survive against a big peloton between Cipressa and Poggio but I don't think there would be a big peloton in that scenario. And if he attacks on the Poggio he should do it early. The entire "let Wellens do a leadout" thing doesn't work because everyone knows exactly when the acceleration is coming and Van der Poel will be perfectly positioned to follow. Just attack as soon as the Poggio starts, do it from 20th place in the peloton if need be, but put yourself in a position where Van der Poel and the rest has to close two bikelengths. I don't think he will win that way, but I think he increases his chances compared to what he did the last few years.

I think what they tried last year, fast Cipressa and attack Poggio, is probably the worst they can do, cause it leaves you with too little firepower on the Poggio.

Similarly, I don't believe at all in wasting many resouces on the Capo Mele and Capo Cervo, cause they're just too easy and you just telegraph the opposition should get their position right before Capo Berta.

Similarly, I'm sceptical he can just drop everyone off his wheel early on the Cipressa. It's like 1.5km into a 5% climb at that point, then you have a 3% stretch. Cipressa really only has one little spot where attacking is slightly possible if you expect people to react.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

I think what they tried last year, fast Cipressa and attack Poggio, is probably the worst they can do, cause it leaves you with too little firepower on the Poggio.

Similarly, I don't believe at all in wasting many resouces on the Capo Mele and Capo Cervo, cause they're just too easy and you just telegraph the opposition should get their position right before Capo Berta.

So what's the best tactic for Pogi except saying MSR is not a race for real men, I won't ride it anymore until they change the route ?

 

[E_F_]

So what's the best tactic for Pogi except saying MSR is not a race for real men, I won't ride it until they change the route ?

Sign Mohoric and the top 5 rouleurs in the world - do a TTT down the slopes of the Turchino and beyond.

 

[Red Rick]

So what's the best tactic for Pogi except saying MSR is not a race for real men, I won't ride it until they change the route ?

Early attack on the Poggio after clogging up everyone's position with your entire team. Exact location depending on wind direction. Secondly, solo attack in the final 2km like Pidcock last year. And these tactics are not mutually exclusive.

I still think it hasn't been the smartest thing by Pogacar to just try for the sprint when he doesn't get away solo on the Poggio.

 

[RJH]

MSR is not a race for real men

I hope Pogi doesn‘t think this way.

I still remember Kopp and Moletta crashing on the descents of Poggio and Cipressa. Brutal.

Or the edition Ciolek won. The riders cried from pain after their hands became warm again in the bus. Epic!…

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Early attack on the Poggio after clogging up everyone's position with your entire team. Exact location depending on wind direction. Secondly, solo attack in the final 2km like Pidcock last year. And these tactics are not mutually exclusive.

I still think it hasn't been the smartest thing by Pogacar to just try for the sprint when he doesn't get away solo on the Poggio.

It could be that Pogacar was too tired after Poggio efforts to be able to do a 2-km successful solo (at least in some editions he looked cooked at the end). He's usually the one who makes the biggest effort there. But this kind of move in the last couple of km indeed looks better than sprinting at the end.

 

[Red Rick]

It could be that Pogacar was too tired after Poggio efforts to be able to do a 2-km successful solo. He's usually the one who makes the biggest effort here. But this kind of move in the last couple of km indeed looks better than sprinting at the end.

Possibly. I also think he should stop sitting 2nd wheel on the Poggio, he's just eating wind he shouldn't. That matters so much when climbing at 38kph in single file.

Overall, I'm really sceptical about Pog getting it done with a last km Poggio attack. I rewatched last year and you could clearly see MvdP spending time on the Poggio to bring Philipsen to position as if he's on domestique duty. Then he closes a 20m gap in the last 300m of the Poggio anyway.