Milano - Sanremo 2025, one day monument, March 22

[Krzysztof_O]

Possibly. I also think he should stop sitting 2nd wheel on the Poggio, he's just eating wind he shouldn't. That matters so much when climbing at 38kph in single file.

Overall, I'm really sceptical about Pog getting it done with a last km Poggio attack. I rewatched last year and you could clearly see MvdP spending time on the Poggio to bring Philipsen to position as if he's on domestique duty. Then he closes a 20m gap in the last 300m of the Poggio anyway.

MVP is definitely a problem for Pog i.e. he's really a monster on that kind of uphill sections like Poggio finale. But he's far from being Pog's only problem: the combination of versatile sprinters and fast descenders is another story, a few seconds on Poggio may not be enough given strong chasers.

 

[Brullnux]

Possibly. I also think he should stop sitting 2nd wheel on the Poggio, he's just eating wind he shouldn't. That matters so much when climbing at 38kph in single file.

Overall, I'm really sceptical about Pog getting it done with a last km Poggio attack. I rewatched last year and you could clearly see MvdP spending time on the Poggio to bring Philipsen to position as if he's on domestique duty. Then he closes a 20m gap in the last 300m of the Poggio anyway.

Also re Cipressa, I'm unconvinced a hard pace there makes it harder for MvdP to follow Pogacar later. It puts people like Philipsen and Bling under pressure but MvdP will be mostly unaffected I reckon

 

[Red Rick]

MVP is definitely a problem for Pog i.e. he's really a monster on that kind of uphill sections like Poggio finale. But he's far from being Pog's only problem: the combination of versatile sprinters and fast descenders is another story, a few seconds on Poggio may not be enough given strong chasers.

Cohesion tends to not be great behind, unless it's one guy getting away from a full peloton. Then there's descenders like Pidcock who he probably wants to go to the line with.

Honestly Van der Poel in top shape is near unbeatable for him but he's already 30 and he's indicated he doesn't wanna race deep into his 30s. Might call it quits at the end of his current contract, which lasts through 2028.

 

[Keldergoat]

Also re Cipressa, I'm unconvinced a hard pace there makes it harder for MvdP to follow Pogacar later. It puts people like Philipsen and Bling under pressure but MvdP will be mostly unaffected I reckon

Agree, especially since I get the feeling that he's climbing better, and he's a tad lighter than previous years.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Honestly Van der Poel in top shape is near unbeatable for him but he's already 30 and he's indicated he doesn't wanna race deep into his 30s. Might call it quits at the end of his current contract, which lasts through 2028.

Not only uphill explosivity but also great descending and good sprint. Waiting for MVP's retirement and/or route change may be the best tactics for Pogi

 

[Ricco']

Also re Cipressa, I'm unconvinced a hard pace there makes it harder for MvdP to follow Pogacar later. It puts people like Philipsen and Bling under pressure but MvdP will be mostly unaffected I reckon

And MVDP strenght has always been the ability to quickly recover from shorter power outputs in comparison to other riders.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

So what's the best tactic for Pogi except saying MSR is not a race for real men, I won't ride it anymore until they change the route ?

Become a faster sprinter than Philipsen/Merlier/Milan, have his team block the road and save his legs for the sprint. Job done.

 

[Zoetemelk-fan]

Early attack on the Poggio after clogging up everyone's position with your entire team. Exact location depending on wind direction.

Or maybe just use the hairpins on the flatter + 40kph part.
Even I, as a mortal, have been able to gain speed on this climb (during holidays at the hotel with the pool at the bottom of the Poggio climb), and you really do have to throw the anchor round the bend, before powerful acceleration again.
At a critical point before the short 8% section, with a very strong team, a bit of an unfair barráge could be made here. Not something I as a viewer would like to see, though...

 

[Netserk]

Perhaps UAE should try to have different rider attemps solo attacks on the Tre Cappi and Cipressa - force the other teams to set a hard pace - save a short leadout into the very bottom of the Poggio.

If Narvaez and Del Toro enter Cipressa near the front, the former should launch an attack of the latter early on the climb. They should be able to get a little gap, and then others have to chase. Pogi can then attack up to Del Toro at the end of the steep part of Cipressa. Wellens will follow VdP and other favourites and be saved as Poggio launcher if it comes to that.

 

[E_F_]

So ehm, how would the route change? Le Manie? Pompeiana?

 

[Gigs_98]

I think what they tried last year, fast Cipressa and attack Poggio, is probably the worst they can do, cause it leaves you with too little firepower on the Poggio.

Similarly, I don't believe at all in wasting many resouces on the Capo Mele and Capo Cervo, cause they're just too easy and you just telegraph the opposition should get their position right before Capo Berta.

Similarly, I'm sceptical he can just drop everyone off his wheel early on the Cipressa. It's like 1.5km into a 5% climb at that point, then you have a 3% stretch. Cipressa really only has one little spot where attacking is slightly possible if you expect people to react.

My thought process is you nuke the Capi just to thin out the peloton enough to decrease the likelihood of a well organized group forming after the Cipressa (don't care too much how exactly you approach that part), you let your two best doms set a maximally high pace on the first 3 km of the Cipressa and then you try and go. Would people still be able to follow? Perhaps yes, but I think he is quite a bit more likely to drop everyone there than on the Poggio.

Like, I'm not 100% convinced that's the best strategy or anything, but I think they'll have to try to mix it up because I just don't believe in him winning by attacking late on the Poggio.

 

[Heston]

Instead of attacking early, I feel like UAE's best chance would be to have as many riders after Poggio and attack in the final kilometers. Pogacar, Wellens, Narvaez should all be among the first 10-15 riders over the top of Poggio. Take turns attacking in the last 5 km.

 

[scribers]

Fluid Mechanics #1 ~ Gianni Bugno

In 1990 the Italian Gianni Bugno won Milan ~ San Remo in very classy fashion. Crosswinds along the Riviera had broken up the peloton, scattering the riders into three large echelons. Angelo Canzonieri took a punt off the front after passing Imperia. Bugno followed the move. On the Cipressa, with...

www.mamnick.com

 

[Berniece]

Instead of attacking early, I feel like UAE's best chance would be to have as many riders after Poggio and attack in the final kilometers. Pogacar, Wellens, Narvaez should all be among the first 10-15 riders over the top of Poggio. Take turns attacking in the last 5 km.

UAE doesn't care about winning with the team, they only want to win with Pogacar. Which is indeed one of the reasons they haven't won it yet.

 

[hayneplane]

Are there any parts of the Poggio on the hairpins that are narrow enough that setting a go slow and blocking with 4 riders when your leader attacks can cause the kind of carnage often seen on the Koppenberg when a rider crashes or has a mechanical issue?

 

[jono]

Quite simply the best race of the year

Best 45 minutes or so of racing many years. Not the same thing, for me, as the best race.

 

[E_F_]

Are there any parts of the Poggio on the hairpins that are narrow enough that setting a go slow and blocking with 4 riders when your leader attacks can cause the kind of carnage often seen on the Koppenberg when a rider crashes or has a mechanical issue?

@Zoetemelk-fan just mentioned a couple of options, I think!

 

[hayneplane]

I still lean towards @Gigs_98 plan of drilling it hard on the Capi.

Ideally I would like to try and send a satellite rider out ahead of and hope they can still be in front to pace the flats after an attack on the Cipressa or even the final Capi which is the steepest climb in the race.

Ultimately Pogacar has enough placements in this race for another top 5 to mean very little so he need to be prepared to go all out win or bust and be willing to miss top 20 entirely if he is caught.

 

[RJH]

On paper Lidl-Trek are favourite for Sanremo, but I hope for a Girmay victory…

 

[Berniece]

On paper Lidl-Trek are favourite for Sanremo, but I hope for a Girmay victory…

Girmay won’t perform this spring. He just had a baby

 

[Gratemans]

Best 45 minutes or so of racing many years. Not the same thing, for me, as the best race.

You're not wrong, but precisely because everything comes down to those last 45 minutes, you get some great tactical speculation here. Love that.
And those views of the Mediterranean just as the finale starts.. fantastic.

 

[Salvarani]

Girmay won’t perform this spring. He just had a baby

Understandable, he has to keep an eye on it.

 

[scribers]

Also re Cipressa, I'm unconvinced a hard pace there makes it harder for MvdP to follow Pogacar later. It puts people like Philipsen and Bling under pressure but MvdP will be mostly unaffected I reckon

This would be an ideal tactic as it’ll eliminate the two guys who finished ahead of pogi and deplete mvp across the poggio and finish stretch.

 

[Brullnux]

This would be an ideal tactic as it’ll eliminate the two guys who finished ahead of pogi and deplete mvp across the poggio and finish stretch.

Just don't think van der Poel will be depleted by a hard pace on a 12 minute shallow climb. Not sure we have seen anything at any point in his career to suggest that. Unless he has a bad day that is, but if he's on normal form then it won't hurt him any more than it will Pogacar and UAE more broadly. It's basically what they tried last year and vdP (with domestique duties) closed him down while breathing through his nose.

 

[scribers]

Just don't think van der Poel will be depleted by a hard pace on a 12 minute shallow climb. Not sure we have seen anything at any point in his career to suggest that. Unless he has a bad day that is, but if he's on normal form then it won't hurt him any more than it will Pogacar and UAE more broadly. It's basically what they tried last year and vdP (with domestique duties) closed him down while breathing through his nose.

Last year he covered all attacks and was not at the finish line with the rest of them