Milano - Sanremo: March 20, 2021

[SafeBet]

lovely visualization

https://twitter.com/x/status/1372143741155348480

(Pippo Pozzato)

 

[OlavEH]

I don't want Pompeiana. It will kill the sprinters and I still want to have these doubts. Will the likes of Kristoff/Demare/Degenkolb survive and beat the likes of Ala/VDP/WVA?
If you add Pompeiana, all the sprinters will drop there and we will remain only with the likes of Ala/VDP/WVA as possible winners.

They could try. As mentioned, now the rest of the route is just a waiting game for Poggio.

 

[Earns1985]

I don't know. A few years ago I was among the people calling for a route change but the last few years the route started to work again. Prior to Kwiatkowski's win I felt MSR will start to become a sprinter classic with attackers only winning like 1 out of 10 races, but now the last 4 years in a row the race didn't end in a buch sprint so I'm inclined to say they shouldn't mess around with a formula that is currently delivering. I also wish there was more action on the Cipressa but as long as the finale is as good as recently I'm fine.

I also like the race how it is now.
The good thing is, that you know from the beginning, that it will be enough, if you watch the last half hour of the race.
In other races (for example tour de france stages) it often happens, that you plan a lot of time for watching and in the end you leave dissapointing, because until the last kilometers nothing had happened. Here at least you know it from the beginning.

 

[SafeBet]

Alaphilippe is likely the very best Poggio climber we have ever seen, so riding defensively to check if Ballerini can win a sprint after 290 km against the very best classic riders out there doesn't seem a brilliant idea to me.

 

[roundabout]

Alaphilippe is likely the very best Poggio climber we have ever seen, so riding defensively to check if Ballerini can win a sprint after 290 km against the very best classic riders out there doesn't seem a brilliant idea to me.

I think riding defensively means not taking turns in a group with Van Aert and van der Poel

 

[Cinemaniak]

DQS downplaying their role as big favorites is just silly and a bit sad. You come to the race with Bennet, punchy Ballerini and WC Julian Alaphilippe(!) for Christ sake.. Dominating every previous editions of this race..

 

[Bonimenier]

DQS downplaying their role as big favorites is just silly and a bit sad. You come to the race with Bennet, punchy Ballerini and WC Julian Alaphilippe(!) for Christ sake.. Dominating every previous editions of this race..

Are they wrong though? Can you really call yourself a big favourite in a race like MSR if van der Poel and van Aert are both there, and both looked phenomenal just a week before?

 

[hayneplane]

Ironically this could turn out to be a real good opportunity for Sagan as for possibly the only time in his career nobody is going to be expecting his team to do the work to close gaps and even if he makes a small group selection the current big 3 of WVA/MVDP/JA will be the ones leant on to cover attacks. I would love him to win as it is the most glaring gap in his palmares of races feasible for him to win.

Hope fully the new attacking Ineos strategies will see Ganna and Bernal attack on the Cipressa with Pidcock covering behind to try and follow the puncheurs on the Poggio.

Degenkolb showed some good signs in Paris-Nice and the opening weekend classics of some level of revitalisation but the level of competition is far stronger and deeper than when was last a peak contender. Kristoff can never be ruled out in a long race if it comes back to a 30 man sprint.

Most of all I hope some meaningful action is launched on the Cipressa to really split things up.

 

[hayneplane]

Are they wrong though? Can you really call yourself a big favourite in a race like MSR if van der Poel and van Aert are both there, and both looked phenomenal just a week before?

I agree, its like the cobbled classics where they have lot of viable winners giving tactical cards to play but if it goes mano a mano with the superstars they are a little way behind on current form

 

[Cinemaniak]

Are they wrong though? Can you really call yourself a big favourite in a race like MSR if van der Poel and van Aert are both there, and both looked phenomenal just a week before?

Yes I think they are wrong. JV & Alpecin aren't coming to the race with 4 potential winners... DQS does. They have a variety of tactical advantages to play.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

Keep in mind that they're forecasting a headwind on the Poggio, if that's the case it'll be a good indication of the sprinters' chances in the current peloton for this and future editions.

 

[Red Rick]

I think one shouldn't underestimate Alaphilippe on the Poggio. MvdP and Van Aert might have had more impressive performances this year but it's not like Alaphilippe hasn't shown good shape either and I think the Poggio suits him more than the other two. I agree he isn't the favorite but I 100% think he has a better chance to win aggressively than some qs sprinter has in a reduced bunch sprint.

Yeah in 2019 Ala was actually pretty bad in the hard Tirreno stages as well.

 

[Red Rick]

Keep in mind that they're forecasting a headwind on the Poggio, if that's the case it'll be a good indication of the sprinters' chances in the current peloton for this and future editions.

In my opinion the puncheur field is just way too strong right now.

 

[Eshnar]

Keep in mind that they're forecasting a headwind on the Poggio, if that's the case it'll be a good indication of the sprinters' chances in the current peloton for this and future editions.

which forecasts have you seen? The one I saw predicts wind from E/NE, which would be cross/tailwind for most of the climb...

 

[Eshnar]

In my opinion the puncheur field is just way too strong right now.

at the moment the puncheur field happens to also be the sprinters field... ^^

 

[pink_jersey]

Ironically this could turn out to be a real good opportunity for Sagan as for possibly the only time in his career nobody is going to be expecting his team to do the work to close gaps and even if he makes a small group selection the current big 3 of WVA/MVDP/JA will be the ones leant on to cover attacks. I would love him to win as it is the most glaring gap in his palmares of races feasible for him to win.

Hope fully the new attacking Ineos strategies will see Ganna and Bernal attack on the Cipressa with Pidcock covering behind to try and follow the puncheurs on the Poggio.

Degenkolb showed some good signs in Paris-Nice and the opening weekend classics of some level of revitalisation but the level of competition is far stronger and deeper than when was last a peak contender. Kristoff can never be ruled out in a long race if it comes back to a 30 man sprint.

Most of all I hope some meaningful action is launched on the Cipressa to really split things up.

Is Bernal riding it? He isn't on the startlist but maybe it isn't updated since Moscon is scheduled but he crashed in Kuurne and is probably out of it. He looked really good in Omloop.
Dunno about Kawasaki form. He was really good in Besseges and probably would've won the whole thing if not for the crash on the descent but after that he dissapeared in Strade and Tirreno. Still think that he is Ineos best bet. The only was I see Ganna winning it is from attacking in the last km "Cancellara" style.

 

[gavia88]

I don't think I would touch the route from the Capi on. At most I would bring Le Manie back, or put something else in its place.

I would add something before the Cipressa, that could be the Civezza as I think it would fit perfectly between capo Berta and Cipressa. Or somewhat further away from the finish, but a bit steeper around the capo Mele.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

I would add something before the Cipressa, that could be the Civezza as I think it would fit perfectly between capo Berta and Cipressa. Or somewhat further away from the finish, but a bit steeper around the capo Mele.

Yes, adding Colla Micheri would be nice too.

If they really wanted to incentivise action we'd get Manie, Micheri and Cipressa but no Poggio, then again that rips some history out of the race.

 

[Devil's Elbow]

which forecasts have you seen? The one I saw predicts wind from E/NE, which would be cross/tailwind for most of the climb...

Was N when I checked this morning, I guess it's changed since. Never mind then.

 

[Eshnar]

Was N when I checked this morning, I guess it's changed since. Never mind then.

oh well, it's gonna change at least a dozen more times before Saturday anyway.

 

[Pantani_lives]

Mads Pedersen is not on the start list for Trek!? It looks like Nibali will be their only leader, with Stuyven and Simmons as helpers. I'm surprised, because Pedersen looked like a potental winner in a sprint with a small group.

 

[tobydawq]

Mads Pedersen is not on the start list for Trek!? It looks like Nibali will be their only leader, with Stuyven and Simmons as helpers. I'm surprised, because Pedersen looked like a potental winner in a sprint with a small group.

Pedersen says that he knows he won't win the race and he figures participating in MSR is suboptimal preparation for the Flemish classics.

 

[BlueRoads]

The other riders must be really demotivated by the van's showings! I would have thought Pedersen was one of the more likely outside bets, with his sprinting abilities and some tactical options at Trek.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

The problem for Pedersen would have been, that although he's a good sprinter, he wouldn't have a chance to survive Poggio, if the big guns open up. Bennett hasn't been able to do it yet either. And it's probably also a good idea for Pedersen to save some energy for races he has a better chance of winning.

 

[Red Rick]

Pedersen says that he knows he won't win the race and he figures participating in MSR is suboptimal preparation for the Flemish classics.

Milano Sanremo might be about the last race where you know for sure you won't win. Very surprising to me.