Milano - Sanremo: March 20, 2021

[Sciatic]

I still remember Gilbert frustration after not winning in 2011. Pozzato absolutely killed himself chasing him in the last km and then Goss beat Cancellara in the sprint..

I remember that as well, Gilbert getting what seemed like a winning gap on the elite group that came over the top of the Poggio together, but that Pozzato reeling him back in. I was watching the Belgian broadcast, I can still hear the vitriol in the announcers voices with a deep, slowly drawn out utterance of “Po-zzz-to” when they realized who it was killing PhilGil’s shot at the win.

 

[hayneplane]

Is Bernal riding it? He isn't on the startlist but maybe it isn't updated since Moscon is scheduled but he crashed in Kuurne and is probably out of it. He looked really good in Omloop.
Dunno about Kawasaki form. He was really good in Besseges and probably would've won the whole thing if not for the crash on the descent but after that he dissapeared in Strade and Tirreno. Still think that he is Ineos best bet. The only was I see Ganna winning it is from attacking in the last km "Cancellara" style.

Just checked and Moscon has a race number but no Bernal.

 

[Keram]

After Sagans attack in 2017 this race is more and more about attackers and I am almost sure this year wont be a bunch sprint. I would love to see 2017 Sagan against 2021 magic trio but well I guess we will see Sagan dropping on Pogio or even on Cipressa.

 

[Avoriaz]

Is Mads Wurz Schmidt riding?

 

[MADRAZO]

Is Bernal riding it? He isn't on the startlist but maybe it isn't updated since Moscon is scheduled but he crashed in Kuurne and is probably out of it. He looked really good in Omloop.
Dunno about Kawasaki form. He was really good in Besseges and probably would've won the whole thing if not for the crash on the descent but after that he dissapeared in Strade and Tirreno. Still think that he is Ineos best bet. The only was I see Ganna winning it is from attacking in the last km "Cancellara" style.

I would guess Moscons place on that latest startlist is going to Ben Swift, that less than a week ago talked abvout the race being a objective for him, and that Van Der Poel and Van Aert would be very hard to beat. It would be really odd if he was not starting his favourite race.

 

[The Hegelian]

1. Just appreciating having this on, at the right time. Italy was in crisis last year, and the cancellation of MSR was kind of like the first big sign that the year would be a bit crazy.
2. It's normally such a lottery to predict - can't remember a year where there were three 5 star faves and a pretty big gap to the rest.
3. I'm already a bit sick of that big three.
4. When was the last time you hoped the sprinters would pull back the daring attackers?
5. I'm going Van Aert to double up.

 

[Leinster]

After Sagans attack in 2017 this race is more and more about attackers and I am almost sure this year wont be a bunch sprint. I would love to see 2017 Sagan against 2021 magic trio but well I guess we will see Sagan dropping on Pogio or even on Cipressa.

The funny thing is, he genuinely would have some support this year. With Schachmann and Ackermann, he has 2 other options in his team who he can rely on to be threats to other teams, and he has his 2 long-trusted sidemen in Oss and Bodnar, though they are both getting up in years now. It's not impossible that Bora will have 4 guys still in play halfway up the Poggio, or even at the top, where before he was lucky if he had one guy at the bottom.

So a crucial question will be, when the Alaf/WVA/MvdP attack goes on the Poggio, does Schachmann follow, and try to pick up their scraps, or does he try to pace Sagan back up in the hope that he might wind back the clock and pull off a big sprint?

4. When was the last time you hoped the sprinters would pull back the daring attackers?

It's the dichotomy of MSR; we need a predictable bunch sprint to restore the race's unpredictability.

On the plus side, is the Giovo even less of a challenge than the Turchino? The sprinters might be fresher than usual by the time they get to the Capi.

 

[tobydawq]

1. Just appreciating having this on, at the right time. Italy was in crisis last year, and the cancellation of MSR was kind of like the first big sign that the year would be a bit crazy.
2. It's normally such a lottery to predict - can't remember a year where there were three 5 star faves and a pretty big gap to the rest.
3. I'm already a bit sick of that big three.
4. When was the last time you hoped the sprinters would pull back the daring attackers?
5. I'm going Van Aert to double up.

4: In 2018.

 

[Andy262]

Where does Phil Gilbert attack to give himself any chance whatsoever of a historic win? Could he go on Cipressa and hold them off?

 

[tobydawq]

Where does Phil Gilbert attack to give himself any chance whatsoever of a historic win? Could he go on Cipressa and hold them off?

No.

 

[RedheadDane]

Just appreciating having this on, at the right time. Italy was in crisis last year, and the cancellation of MSR was kind of like the first big sign that the year would be a bit crazy.

"A bit crazy"?

I would love to see 2017 Sagan against 2021 magic trio but well I guess we will see Sagan dropping on Pogio or even on Cipressa.

Now, that would require time travel.

 

[Bolder]

To me MSR is the least monumental of the monuments. That out of the way, the ending is always great.

My favorite is Wout, I really think MVDP is going to pay for his effort last weekend. -- 300k is still 300k. A fresh, rested MVDP would probably attack on the Cipressa and have a decent chance of staying away, but I think he's got to wait until the Poggio, mark Wout or Alaf or anyone who goes, and hope he can win a sprint.

But I could see a lot of scenarios play out -- Wout will have to pull anyone who can go with him on the Poggio to the line and that includes Alaphilippe. Matthews has been looking pretty sharp, too.

 

[Volderke]

Where does Phil Gilbert attack to give himself any chance whatsoever of a historic win? Could he go on Cipressa and hold them off?

My hope is in the last kilometer. I heard Pozzato isnt'starting, so I don't see who's gonna chase Gilbert.

 

[tomorrow]

The funny thing is, he genuinely would have some support this year. With Schachmann and Ackermann, he has 2 other options in his team who he can rely on to be threats to other teams, and he has his 2 long-trusted sidemen in Oss and Bodnar, though they are both getting up in years now. It's not impossible that Bora will have 4 guys still in play halfway up the Poggio, or even at the top, where before he was lucky if he had one guy at the bottom.

So a crucial question will be, when the Alaf/WVA/MvdP attack goes on the Poggio, does Schachmann follow, and try to pick up their scraps, or does he try to pace Sagan back up in the hope that he might wind back the clock and pull off a big sprint?



It's the dichotomy of MSR; we need a predictable bunch sprint to restore the race's unpredictability.

On the plus side, is the Giovo even less of a challenge than the Turchino? The sprinters might be fresher than usual by the time they get to the Capi.

Honestly, I think Bora DS would be not very wise to bank anything on Sagan this year. At best, he's a underdog this year, but I fear that even the is an overestimation. As you could see in stage 6 of TA, he can't sprint after the distance. He tried to test his legs and he couldn't. He was glad he finished TA, words of his own. I doubt he would be able to sprint after 300km just few days later.
Bora should go with Schachman and Ackermann as leaders. And, if Sagan has anything in the tank on Cipressa, which is very hypothetical, Bora could actually start to play mind games with him attacking. Like QS with Terpstra in E3 or Gilbert in Flanders and PR few years back, to mess with other teams. I think I've read somewhere Sagan stated his TT got better and was not that affected by Covid, its the explosivness he's lacking currently, so maybe he could bother other teams with some sort of long range attack and prepare the soil for his colleague and thank them for their work in the past years.

 

[Keram]

The funny thing is, he genuinely would have some support this year. With Schachmann and Ackermann, he has 2 other options in his team who he can rely on to be threats to other teams, and he has his 2 long-trusted sidemen in Oss and Bodnar, though they are both getting up in years now. It's not impossible that Bora will have 4 guys still in play halfway up the Poggio, or even at the top, where before he was lucky if he had one guy at the bottom.

So a crucial question will be, when the Alaf/WVA/MvdP attack goes on the Poggio, does Schachmann follow, and try to pick up their scraps, or does he try to pace Sagan back up in the hope that he might wind back the clock and pull off a big sprint?



It's the dichotomy of MSR; we need a predictable bunch sprint to restore the race's unpredictability.

On the plus side, is the Giovo even less of a challenge than the Turchino? The sprinters might be fresher than usual by the time they get to the Capi.

Would be good scenario if Sagan is at least in last year form but I am afraid he will have more trouble to stay in the peloton at last two hills.

 

[King Boonen]

As usual, I see people are calling for route changes in the Monument that probably most often throws up a surprise winner...

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

To me MSR is the least monumental of the monuments. That out of the way, the ending is always great.

My favorite is Wout, I really think MVDP is going to pay for his effort last weekend. -- 300k is still 300k. A fresh, rested MVDP would probably attack on the Cipressa and have a decent chance of staying away, but I think he's got to wait until the Poggio, mark Wout or Alaf or anyone who goes, and hope he can win a sprint.

But I could see a lot of scenarios play out -- Wout will have to pull anyone who can go with him on the Poggio to the line and that includes Alaphilippe. Matthews has been looking pretty sharp, too.

i'm sorry but i really doubt MVDP is going to pay for that effort. He's generally known for amazing recovery.
He's had instances, both in CX and on road, where he looked completely dead one day only to be completely fine the next day. Wout himself even reminded people of that after the Castelfidardo stage "I've seen Mathieu like that in a CX tent plenty of times. Shivering and completely dead. And then he'd be completely fine the next race".

These guys are freaks, not normal humans

 

[topcat]

i'm sorry but i really doubt MVDP is going to pay for that effort. He's generally known for amazing recovery.
He's had instances, both in CX and on road, where he looked completely dead one day only to be completely fine the next day. Wout himself even reminded people of that after the Castelfidardo stage "I've seen Mathieu like that in a CX tent plenty of times. Shivering and completely dead. And then he'd be completely fine the next race".

These guys are freaks, not normal humans

Carlsberg don't do recovery, ...

 

[Wvv]

Imagine a slightly early attack by Sagan, GVA, Gilbert, Nibali & Kwiatkowski. We could get a 2010s vs 2020s superstars battle.

 

[Gigs_98]

Imagine a slightly early attack by Sagan, GVA, Gilbert, Nibali & Kwiatkowski. We could get a 2010s vs 2020s superstars battle.

That's a wet dream right there.

Pedersen not riding is strange. I get he wants to be well prepared for the cobbles but I don't feel like his chances to win there are actually much higher than to win here. He might be slightly better suited to those races but on the cobbles it's also much harder to beat whoever is the straight up strongest and I don't see him being that person. MSR meanwhile is often a complete lottery. This race is won by a hardman sprinter nobody really expected quite often.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

That's a wet dream right there.

Pedersen not riding is strange. I get he wants to be well prepared for the cobbles but I don't feel like his chances to win there are actually much higher than to win here. He might be slightly better suited to those races but on the cobbles it's also much harder to beat whoever is the straight up strongest and I don't see him being that person. MSR meanwhile is often a complete lottery. This race is won by a hardman sprinter nobody really expected quite often.

I don't get it tho. Ok he wants to prepare for the cobbles better. But there's only like 6/7 chances each spring. Might as well ride them all on the off chance you get that scenario you can win.

 

[Nirvana]

I would have liked to see Ganna Vs. the peloton on the Aurelia between Cipressa and Poggio but looks like his shape isn't that great (in San Benedetto he did 11'17'', last year 10'42''...).

 

[Pantani_lives]

****Van der Poel, Van Aert, Alaphilippe
***Démare, Gilbert, Nibali
**Matthews, Bennett, Ballerini
*Sagan, Schachmann, Ewan, Kristoff, Viviani, Nizzolo, Ganna

But I have a feeling some second rate sprinter is going to win.

 

[Mayomaniac]

****Van der Poel, Van Aert, Alaphilippe
***Démare, Gilbert, Nibali
**Matthews, Bennett, Ballerini
*Sagan, Schachmann, Ewan, Kristoff, Viviani, Nizzolo, Ganna

But I have a feeling some second rate sprinter is going to win.

Laporte could be a dangerous outsider.

 

[BlueRoads]

Laporte could be a dangerous outsider.

That's what I just thought. That would actually be very funny, if he would win the monument against van der Poel, van Aert and Julian.
I don't really see it, even in a bunch sprint van Aert should be better. But in such a sprint anything can happen.