Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[Miburo]

What if froome really peaked for the 3rd week?

Not even trying to attack froome is being a coward, yea sure tactics...He's just scared, that simple.

He'll need an incident ala giro 2014 before he attacks I guess

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re:

I'm curious what those itching to attribute a potential Tour loss to a failure to attack today think he'd have gained (or lost) with an attack at Arcalis

Best case
Worst case
most likely case

Best case scenario, he'd have dropped Froome, gained time, and most importantly dealt a psychological hammer blow to Froome.

Worst case scenario, he'd have attacked, failed, and finished in the same time as Froome, whilst finding out how strong Froome really is right now and whether he does indeed look to be set on peaking in week 3 or if he's on a similar trajectory to 2013 and 2015

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

I'm curious what those itching to attribute a potential Tour loss to a failure to attack today think he'd have gained (or lost) with an attack at Arcalis

Best case
Worst case
most likely case

Best case scenario, he'd have dropped Froome, gained time, and most importantly dealt a psychological hammer blow to Froome.

Worst case scenario, he'd have attacked, failed, and finished in the same time as Froome, whilst finding out how strong Froome really is right now and whether he does indeed look to be set on peaking in week 3 or if he's on a similar trajectory to 2013 and 2015

Is that really a sound, unbiased analysis?

Best case, gaining 15 seconds. If he was fresh as a daisy, he obviously woulda went and gained more, but that wasn't the case.
Worst case, losing 15-30 seconds.
Most likely case going even as he did today. But he is playing the long game, the psychological game. Where does he stand? Froome doesn't know. He most likely know where Froome stands right now since he put in 100% on one of those digs. From that point on, he just needed to follow and deal the blow on Ventoux.

 

[Pantani_lives]

There are two possible explanations why Quintana didn't attack today:

A. He didn't have the legs to drop Froome.
B. He thinks it's too early to take yellow and put all the work on his teammates' shoulders for the next three days.

On the Ventoux he will have to attack if he wants to win the Tour. If he can't drop Froome there it's not very likely to happen elsewhere. The question remains how much his time trial has really improved. Thursday and Friday will be crucial.

Currently this is how I rate the chances for the overall win:

Froome 50%
Quintana 40%
Porte 4%
Yates 3%
Martin 3%

It's the best position he's been in, but he'll have to grab his chances from now on.

 

[sir fly]

Re: Re:

I'm curious what those itching to attribute a potential Tour loss to a failure to attack today think he'd have gained (or lost) with an attack at Arcalis

Best case
Worst case
most likely case

Best case scenario, he'd have dropped Froome, gained time, and most importantly dealt a psychological hammer blow to Froome.

Worst case scenario, he'd have attacked, failed, and finished in the same time as Froome, whilst finding out how strong Froome really is right now and whether he does indeed look to be set on peaking in week 3 or if he's on a similar trajectory to 2013 and 2015

Is that really a sound, unbiased analysis?

Best case, gaining 15 seconds. If he was fresh as a daisy, he obviously woulda went and gained more, but that wasn't the case.
Worst case, losing 15-30 seconds.
Most likely case going even as he did today. But he is playing the long game, the psychological game. Where does he stand? Froome doesn't know. He most likely know where Froome stands right now since he put in 100% on one of those digs. From that point on, he just needed to follow and deal the blow on Ventoux.

You're exaggerating.
Quintana didn't look fresh today. And Arcalis isn't exactly his cup of tea. I doubt he considered attacking before this stage. It's only 25 seconds, after all. Something like a Froome's dig today - maybe, but surely not a fully committed attack. Unless Froome was really on ropes.
And regarding Froome's dig... It was just a dig. Sizing up of opposition. He'd probably have kept pushing if they've had started to drop, but it wasn't a killer blow attempt.
We really can't tell yet who's stronger. And don't be surprised if we couldn't tell even after Ventoux.
Next weekend is bringing a succession of race shaping stages. They might be cautiously managing their reserves.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

A guy who has been on the record saying Contador was super unfairly treated and Majka and Kreuziger needed to throw whatever personal goals they might have had away once it was obvious that Contador was out of it when he crashed? The same guy saying Contador should never wear a Tinkoff jersey again?

Hardly surprising, Tonton. Quintana lacks panache, but not w/kg which is what Tour de France is about. Or has become. It makes me doubt whether you have actually watched your cycling race in France the last couple of years which is sad considering I like most of your posts. As has been stated multiple times, the race only really begins at Ventoux, especially for Quintana. Your judgement seems to be incredibly biased due to Quintana not giving you a spectacle, a good viewing experience on the criminally overrated Hórs Categorie Arcalis, but does he care?

Cold-blooded killer, not trigger-happy, no pleasuring pet. Altho Im sure you would rate his chancer much higher if that was the case, but thats not how its going down in modern cycling. Get used to it

You are being feisty my friend...just to set the record straight:

1. I was one of, if not the first to yearn for Bertie to DNF. It's Tinkov, not me, who made the spiel that he would get support. I am on the record not blaming Kreuziger for remaining as I wrote "a viable GC option" for Tinkov. By the way, Roman could have used Majka's help today. As it may turn out, Majka won't win the KOM and Roman finish outside of the top-10. And maybe Sagan not in green. And yes, I called for respect for Bertie. Because I would never shoot at an ambulance, the guy is hurt, and vultures/detractors were rejoicing. Not cool.
2. I want to cheer for Quintana, I used to. I want Froome and Sky Postal Service to lose. He has incredible talent. And I stand by my assessment: he's an "épicier". I would understand his tactics if he was Mollema, TJVG, Pinot, Aru...no one has made a dent in Sky's armor and the Pyrenees are gone. wtf man! Unless they are very depleted comes the Alps, Dave's boys won't crack. Let be real. And what is Movistar doing? What is Quintana doing? Nothing. The lesser Brits, Ritchie, at least they made some moves. Donde estaba Nairito? Nowhere. You can't blame me for being upset. And I'm not the only one. Far froome it, if I may say...
3. Don't worry about me watching a ton of cycling, or riding a bike, btw

Sorry if I hit a soft spot, but please recognize that Quintana is on path to finish second...again.

 

[AlexNYC]

Re: Re:

I'm curious what those itching to attribute a potential Tour loss to a failure to attack today think he'd have gained (or lost) with an attack at Arcalis

Best case
Worst case
most likely case

Best case scenario, he'd have dropped Froome, gained time, and most importantly dealt a psychological hammer blow to Froome.

Worst case scenario, he'd have attacked, failed, and finished in the same time as Froome, whilst finding out how strong Froome really is right now and whether he does indeed look to be set on peaking in week 3 or if he's on a similar trajectory to 2013 and 2015

Your worst case scenario is not realistic. The real worst case scenario for Nairo would be very close to the polar opposite of your stated best case one. I.e., he could have been dropped by Froome and the others after blowing himself up. He would also have given away his true form at the moment.

I think Movistar tentatively planned to attack on the Col de Beixalis and this is why they had the two domestiques in the break; but Sky, who probably guessed this all along, thwarted that plan by imposing a high pace. Movistar's second option was exactly what transpired today.

 

[Escarabajo]

PremierAndrew,
Your worst case scenario is optimistic. You have to assume on this scenario that he was on the limit and he would lose more time to Froome. This time added to the worst case scenario of the TT time lost and his Tour would have been over on Arcalis!

 

[ferryman]

Re Nairo today, keeping your powder dry came to mind. He may have been at his limit but it's so hard to tell with him. Froome is not looking great but I guess Thursday and Ventoux will reveal all, no hiding there. Wouldn't be surprised by anything. Can see Astana going bonkers...

 

[PremierAndrew]

Re: Re:

I'm curious what those itching to attribute a potential Tour loss to a failure to attack today think he'd have gained (or lost) with an attack at Arcalis

Best case
Worst case
most likely case

Best case scenario, he'd have dropped Froome, gained time, and most importantly dealt a psychological hammer blow to Froome.

Worst case scenario, he'd have attacked, failed, and finished in the same time as Froome, whilst finding out how strong Froome really is right now and whether he does indeed look to be set on peaking in week 3 or if he's on a similar trajectory to 2013 and 2015

Is that really a sound, unbiased analysis?

Best case, gaining 15 seconds. If he was fresh as a daisy, he obviously woulda went and gained more, but that wasn't the case.
Worst case, losing 15-30 seconds.
Most likely case going even as he did today. But he is playing the long game, the psychological game. Where does he stand? Froome doesn't know. He most likely know where Froome stands right now since he put in 100% on one of those digs. From that point on, he just needed to follow and deal the blow on Ventoux.

None of Froome's digs were 100%. One of them was fairly strong, yes, but come on, it was nothing like this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dKDgNRGUIuA&feature=youtu.be&t=41

And if Quintana went all in with his attack, then of course, failure to drop Froome would have resulted in a time loss for Nairo. But a decent acceleration would at least have tested Froome, without risking cracking himself.
Yes, conserving energy is important, but with a rest day tomorrow, he could definitely have afforded using up a bit more from his reserves. Putting all his eggs in the week 3 basket is a very dangerous strategy, and if Froome doesn't crack in the last week, he will seriously regret not attacking on the Arcalis.

But being 23 seconds down at this point in the race is significantly better than being 3 minutes down like last year, and for sure, it's Nairo's best chance of winning the Tour

 

[diego721]

So... I'm colombian, obviously I want Nairo to win the whole thing. But this weekend leave me with strange sensations; on one hand 23 seconds is much better than 90 seconds for the first week, but I really don't even like the idea of Froome getting the yellow so early, he had showed in the past that he can do a proper defense for two entire weeks.
On the other hand, I think that Sky is just a little bit under-level compared with other years, Thomas doesn't seems to be in monster form, and Henao is great making accelerations but not the man to consistently put a high tempo or catching every attack for Froome, I think that whichever is the result at the end of the Tour, it will be by the one vs one fight in the road.

I want to think that Nairo is just playing mental games with Froome, don't let him know how is his current form, many people even here in Colombia, is way to anxious to see Quintana attacking, and we will see it just... not yet, and I hope not too late.

I don't think that in the original Movistar's plan is attacking on Mont Ventoux, but I think that they will do it after what they saw today, time will tell.

 

[lenric]

Froome being domestique for Quintana with the colombian wheelsucking the life out of british, who's gonna win probably at least a minute in the ITTs.

 

[boasson]

Re:

Quintis problem: Froome hasn't put the hammer down yet. Froome saved energy, he has Henao well placed in GC. He hasn't lost a teammate until yet. And he has the yellow jersey and 23 secs advantage, gifted in the downhill. He wasted much less energy as in the first week of 2013 and 2015, where he went all in at Mur de Huy, the cobbles, the crosswinds and the first MTF. Combined with the planned peak in week 3, Froome will be much fresher and with his best shape. When Froome goes all in at Ventoux and drops Quinti by 20 secs and put 40-60 secs at him in the TT, he is nearly 2 minutes ahead of Quinti with only MTFes in the alps to come, without a real multiple mountain stage.

So why Quinti didn't use the two hardest stages in this Tour with Saturday and Sunday? Why he didn't use Valverde to go fullgas yesterday at Beixallis to burn the field and the sky helpers? Why he didn't try one attack at the last climb after such a heavy stage? If you didn't attack Froome at stages like yesterday, you will be cocked at the MTFes without mountains before. Then it's skytrain time!

 

[Queens Boulevard]

Quintana hasn't beaten Froome in any meaningful way in any stage of any Tour de France they've raced against each other. There's this crazy narrative that Quintana is in some way assured to be much stronger in the third week and can just kind of follow Froome until stage 20 where he'll blow him out the back of the race. It's based on Quintana taking time on Froome on stages late in the tour when that time made absolutely no difference in taking away the top step of the podium. I'm not saying Froome soft pedaled or that Nairo wasn't the stronger of the two on the day(s). I'm just saying mentally there's a difference for Froome if the overall is at stake, and that might give him the extra he needs to hold on to his jersey. Until Nairo beats Froome when the whole bowl of potatoes is at stake he's not the favorite for this race. He needs to gain time where he can.

As for some sort of tactical nous that Quintana might have shown by "keeping his powder dry" we're talking about a stage before a rest day and 2 consecutive sprint days (ie days off). If he had it, he could have gone for it, he just didn't have it, and he might never have it. (caution: hot take incoming) Until he develops a killer instinct he needs to go back to polishing off guys like Uran in the Giro and leave Contador and Froome alone.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

There are two possible explanations why Quintana didn't attack today:

A. He didn't have the legs to drop Froome.
B. He thinks it's too early to take yellow and put all the work on his teammates' shoulders for the next three days.

.

This is a great point. If you were riding up against those Sky riders, with such strength in depth, the last thing you want to have to do is defend for two weeks against them creating havoc all over the place. They've got riders who could go up the road every single day, and who have the potential to make a really decisive contribution to Froome winning. Especially on a stage like Ventoux.

Much better to have them defending a 20 second lead with their train for the next week or so, rather than trying to hold a very small advantage against them.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

A guy who has been on the record saying Contador was super unfairly treated and Majka and Kreuziger needed to throw whatever personal goals they might have had away once it was obvious that Contador was out of it when he crashed? The same guy saying Contador should never wear a Tinkoff jersey again?

Hardly surprising, Tonton. Quintana lacks panache, but not w/kg which is what Tour de France is about. Or has become. It makes me doubt whether you have actually watched your cycling race in France the last couple of years which is sad considering I like most of your posts. As has been stated multiple times, the race only really begins at Ventoux, especially for Quintana. Your judgement seems to be incredibly biased due to Quintana not giving you a spectacle, a good viewing experience on the criminally overrated Hórs Categorie Arcalis, but does he care?

Cold-blooded killer, not trigger-happy, no pleasuring pet. Altho Im sure you would rate his chancer much higher if that was the case, but thats not how its going down in modern cycling. Get used to it

...
Sorry if I hit a soft spot, but please recognize that Quintana is on path to finish second...again.

You did, so would I if I would write a long, exaggerating and biased post in your boy's thread about how big of a failure he is considering his talent, how mentally and psychical unstable he is and he never is gonna get on the podium in this race. We all have soft spots and we try to defend them, especially if we are passionated. You should know that.

Your last point, well, this is where we differ. Why should I recognise that.. because he didn't attack for your pleasure? Again, I think you are confusing what you'd like to see vs what was actually the best move. Nobody could tell what Nairo's sensations where, only him.

He was 3 minutes after Froome in '15, 5 minutes in 2013, both times he proved stronger in the last week. He is on the right path, regardless of you liking wheel sucking or not.

 

[hrotha]

You keep saying we want him to attack purely for the entertainment, but that's blatantly wrong. We simply think it's the best strategy if Quintana actually wants to win.

That said, as a fan, what's the point of rooting for a rider who doesn't entertain?

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

You keep saying we want him to attack purely for the entertainment, but that's blatantly wrong. We simply think it's the best strategy if Quintana actually wants to win.

That said, as a fan, what's the point of rooting for a rider who doesn't entertain?

History taken into consideration, I don't think its the right strategy. I've also thought that he just should hold on in the Pyrenees from the get go since they all previously got hammered on this playground and considering how he rode, I think that was his/their assessment as well.

Good point. I guess when you root for someone, it sticks. In my case, Joux Plane 2012, later a good spring and his mountain raids in Tour same year, 2013. I would like him to be more aggressive, but this is who he is and Im not gonna stop rooting for him unless he waits too long again. Which I think many mistakes him for doing right now.

 

[dacooley]

the distance between quintana and froome at climbing skills is minimal probably doesn't even exist at all, so betting on the main opponent getting weaker in third weak is simply ridiculous. have an opportunity to make up time? use it instantly now and there.

 

[jilbiker]

Re:

There are two possible explanations why Quintana didn't attack today:

A. He didn't have the legs to drop Froome.
B. He thinks it's too early to take yellow and put all the work on his teammates' shoulders for the next three days.

On the Ventoux he will have to attack if he wants to win the Tour. If he can't drop Froome there it's not very likely to happen elsewhere. The question remains how much his time trial has really improved. Thursday and Friday will be crucial.

Currently this is how I rate the chances for the overall win:

Froome 50%
Quintana 40%
Porte 4%
Yates 3%
Martin 3%

It's the best position he's been in, but he'll have to grab his chances from now on.

I may be a Bertie fan but Quintana was my prediction for the 2016 TDF winner, Bertie at best a long shot. Its Quintana's to lose. And he seems to be aware of that, I sense a confidence and swagger in Quintana that comes from when you enter a competition and you seem to be in a zone. Froome has a one template approach, clubber and intimidate, when that doesn't work, he breaks apart mentally. Quintana should continue like this till the 3rd week, match his accelerations for now and then ride away in the 3rd week.

My one concern is the coming ITT, Froome will want to clubber that, but Quintana's ITT has improved greatly, I hope he will beat Froome there.

 

[hrotha]

Re: Re:

Froome has a one template approach, clubber and intimidate, when that doesn't work, he breaks apart mentally.

This, just a couple of days from Froome's surprise attack on the descent, strikes me as wishful thinking.

 

[jilbiker]

Re: Re:

Froome has a one template approach, clubber and intimidate, when that doesn't work, he breaks apart mentally.

This, just a couple of days from Froome's surprise attack on the descent, strikes me as wishful thinking.

Quintana has shown a weakness wrt to descents, we know Bertie beat him on that in 2015 Rol de Sod, so of course knowing the history why not test him? I did not see any surprise there, if Bertie had the legs he would probably have done the same. I did not see any thinking out of the box there.

So far Quintana has shown he will not be moved and will match Froome on the mountains. That makes him nervous. The bigger question is can he think outside the box? I doubt it very much but hey, surprise me Froome! would be interesting

 

[rick james]

Have you any proof that Froome breaks apart mentally??

 

[King Boonen]

It's a 3 week race. AC crashed twice, on innocuous stages, and is gone. Anything can happen yet. Quintana is one good attack away from taking the yellow jersey and he has every Alpine stage left to take that time back. Sky are currently ridiculously strong and would likely have hauled in anything early with Froome covering anything later. I think Nairo played it exactly right. Mark Froome, stick to his wheel like glue so every time he looks back you are there. Let him know that while his support is tiring you're not and that whatever he tries he can't drop you.

There are plenty of stages left, including the mountain ITT, where he can take time. This is shaping up to be a very good battle.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

Quintana has shown a weakness wrt to descents, we know Bertie beat him on that in 2015 Rol de Sod, so of course knowing the history why not test him? I did not see any surprise there, if Bertie had the legs he would probably have done the same. I did not see any thinking out of the box there.

lol