Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

None of his real rivals are there, except for Nibali, who also got dropped by 10 other guys.

Thomas, Aru, Landa, Yates etc.

+ Pinot, Dumoulin, and Mollema. Basically only Kruijswijk missing. And maybe the great Ilnur. But thats semantics, everything to diminish Quintana's ride, right Red Rick?

A whole other thing is I think Nibali is a rider of the past. At least in terms of being able to win GTs.

You mean of the past year? After all he is the reigning champion. Last time he was riding for the win he was able to win it. I thought that by now people would understand that being dropped by 20 riders in March is usual for Nibali in order to be able to win a GT. Unless he is declining, he will give Quintana hell on his home turf.

I could obviously be very wrong, but I think natural and steady decline from 2014 have got the better of him. I also think his ability only to peak for a few days of the years is pretty worrying, that has been the case for the last GT's he has ridden. Or else his training schedule is just completely messed up, but I see no signs of that being any different this year. Same mediocre Nibali all year around and then hoping to peak for the last week and make a miracle.

Either way, its not the same rider at all compared to 2010-2014.

 

[portugal11]

Re: Re:

None of his real rivals are there, except for Nibali, who also got dropped by 10 other guys.

Thomas, Aru, Landa, Yates etc.

None of these could potentially rival Quintana if he's not ill or anything.

That doesn't mean they necessarily aren't rivals. If thats the definition, he has none rivals for the upcoming Giro.

He has't rivals at all

 

[Valv.Piti]

That also means, I assume, that Froome won't have any rivals in France this July. None of them can beat him 'if he's not ill or anything', as Red Rick put it.

 

[Red Rick]

To me, rivals imply that they're aiming for the same thing; the win. Most of the guys names for the Giro will see Quintana take off into the sunset and start thinking about a podium already. They're there to finish as high as possible, seeing Quintana get smaller and smaller in the distance doesn't change much for their objectives. Most likely a good Nibali is the only one who will try every trick he knows to win.

For the Tour, I don't imagine Quintana or Contador riding for 2nd place. They have a few stages to create havoc, and the amount of ITT is so limited that pressuring Froome into one big mistake can be the difference between winning and losing.

But let's not go too much into definitions and whatnot.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

To me, rivals imply that they're aiming for the same thing; the win. Most of the guys names for the Giro will see Quintana take off into the sunset and start thinking about a podium already. They're there to finish as high as possible, seeing Quintana get smaller and smaller in the distance doesn't change much for their objectives. Most likely a good Nibali is the only one who will try every trick he knows to win.

For the Tour, I don't imagine Quintana or Contador riding for 2nd place. They have a few stages to create havoc, and the amount of ITT is so limited that pressuring Froome into one big mistake can be the difference between winning and losing.

But let's not go too much into definitions and whatnot.

Okay, that seems reasonable then.

I have no doubt about Nibali will do everything in his might to win the race, but I very much doubt he has the physique at this point. Lets hope he has.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Quintana has the race sewn up by now. He was the strongest on the very steep section, but couldn't or wouldn't continue. Would have been close to impossible to win the stage anyways.

Good performance, nothing out of the ordinary really, just the hugely efficient and killing machine Quintana we know.

 

[DNP-Old]

I saw this picture cross my Twitter timeline the other day. Nairo Quintana (20 years old at the time) in his one and only appearance in the Vuelta a Colombia: crashing. This was from all the way back to 2010. Sergio Henao would end up winning that race, crushing the competition at just 22 years of age.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Quintana has the race sewn up by now. He was the strongest on the very steep section, but couldn't or wouldn't continue. Would have been close to impossible to win the stage anyways.

Good performance, nothing out of the ordinary really, just the hugely efficient and killing machine Quintana we know.

Quintana rides with a calculator in his pocket. Lol. It amazes me the way he rides. Very smart rider. But I think he missed the numbers at the 2015 Tour.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Quintana has the race sewn up by now. He was the strongest on the very steep section, but couldn't or wouldn't continue. Would have been close to impossible to win the stage anyways.

Good performance, nothing out of the ordinary really, just the hugely efficient and killing machine Quintana we know.

Quintana rides with a calculator in his pocket. Lol. It amazes me the way he rides. Very smart rider. But I think he missed the numbers at the 2015 Tour.

Thats another way to put it. Haters gonna hate for that, but who cares - he is the one winning the bike races.

 

[Red Rick]

Hard to blame him when he wins.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

Hard to blame him when he wins.

Certainly not for CN-posters.

 

[May0maniac]

Re:

Hard to blame him when he wins.

This, you don't need to attack when you're the leader and in control.
That said, he also could have tried a bit harder in the 2015 TdF, waiting for the final gc relevant stage to really attack/try something before the final climb when he was stronger than Froome wasn't the best strategy.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Hard to blame him when he wins.

This, you don't need to attack when you're the leader and in control.
That said, he also could have tried a bit harder in the 2015 TdF, waiting for the final gc relevant stage to really attack/try something before the final climb when he was stronger than Froome wasn't the best strategy.

Of course you don't and yes, the 2015-Tour is something you actually can hold against him, but that was a complicated situation with Valverde. We don't know who said what and what not, but its rather something, I think, you should hold against Movistar as an organisation/team instead of Quintana.

 

[Matteo.]

I don't know but i have the feeling he'll be close to the double this year

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re:

I don't know but i have the feeling he'll be close to the double this year

Who knows. Last year many of us thought Quintana had reached a new level until he disappointed in the Tour and was a shadow of himself for whatever reason, I was probably amongst the posters who believed that the most. It seemed that way. At some point, he was as favoured as Froome to win TdF.

This year, it seems to me he is even better and has hit his definite prime. The way he won in Valencia was glorious and right after the book. The way he won T-A shows racing smarts and intelligence, while obviously still being the best uphill with some margin. And the good part about this is that when you are racing the Giro, you aren't operating at 100% at this point. Nairo is probably somewhere between 85-95% like when he raced T-A in 2014, like when Contador raced T-A in 2015.

Some good quotes from him today:

"I attacked on the last climb to split the group up a little, so we didn't have a lot of riders for the sprint to the line. It was a tough finale. I wasn't a surprise to see Sagan win like that. We've seen him win on almost every kind of terrain and every kind of finish. The teams rode the stage as if it was a Classic and we'd suspected that Sagan and Bora would too."

I like the respect he gives to Sagan, Nairo is clearly impressed by the Slovak and his many talents. And he attacked just to stay safe, it seems, or at least to make it less stressfull. Could he have won?

"It's not like I'm a bad time trialist, but considering how strong the specialists who are behind me in the classification are in this discipline are, you've got to be cautious. I hope it's enough of a margin to win the race, I think it should be. But we must ride strong also on Tuesday to secure this."

Also a very good analysis of the situation.

 

[Pantani_lives]

How much can he lose to Dennis and Dumoulin in a 10K time trial?

 

[rei_da_montanha]

Re:

How much can he lose to Dennis and Dumoulin in a 10K time trial?

You forgot Roglic!

 

[barmaher]

I think the most he can lose to Dennis and Dumoulin is 50 seconds.

I think he will lose around 30 seconds.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re:

How much can he lose to Dennis and Dumoulin in a 10K time trial?

I would say at most 40-50 sec, two years ago he lost 55 sec to Canc but Quintana of today is better at time trials.

 

[Valv.Piti]

“So the Tirreno-Adriatico is a peak in form and he’ll build back up again for the Giro, otherwise it’s impossible to stay so strong from the Vuelta a Valenciana, strong in Tirreno-Adriatico and through May,”

“Nairo has been going well since Valenciana. He’s won right away and showed that he’s intelligent and maybe just that much ahead with respect to his rivals,” added García (Chente Garcia Acosta)

“Intelligent, not always attacking, but yesterday, he very calm, letting [teammate] Castroviejo ride ahead and sitting with his helpers Moreno and Amador behind. It was very important with Castroviejo front. With him ahead, Nairo was mas tranquilo.

“After Tirreno, he’ll go home and rest. His rivals are all on different programs, Landa and Nibali may have less form now, but they are building up slowly with Catalunya or País Vasco. Nairo started strongly and is now going to take a break.”

“No,” García responded when asked if Quintana would return to Colombia in June. “I think he’ll stay in Andorra and stay concentrated. Mostly, he’ll be in Andorra and some at his home in Monaco.”

Colombia right after T-A in one and a half month, more or less, then Asturias just before Giro d' Italia. Then not going back to Colombia afterwards, but staying in Andorra most of the time. The article unfortunately is a little vague about Route du Sud, I don't know if he should or will race it. I guess it depends on how the Giro goes and stuff.

 

[Angliru]

Re: Re:

Quintana has the race sewn up by now. He was the strongest on the very steep section, but couldn't or wouldn't continue. Would have been close to impossible to win the stage anyways.

Good performance, nothing out of the ordinary really, just the hugely efficient and killing machine Quintana we know.

Quintana rides with a calculator in his pocket. Lol. It amazes me the way he rides. Very smart rider. But I think he missed the numbers at the 2015 Tour.

He is wise beyond his years. Even in his early seasons with Movistar riding in support of Valverde at the Vuelta he had a sense about him that was very mature for a rider of his age at the time. I for one can appreciate his methods. They obviously work for him for the most part and I can also respect his honesty. He was asked in an interview about his lack of success (not winning) at the Tour compared to the other grand tours and he plainly stated that maybe it's because the rider that has been beating him is simply stronger. That doesn't mean that he's going to give up trying to win the Tour. I have no issues with his approach to racing.

 

[carton]

Re: Re:

That said, he also could have tried a bit harder in the 2015 TdF, waiting for the final gc relevant stage to really attack/try something before the final climb when he was stronger than Froome wasn't the best strategy.

Of course you don't and yes, the 2015-Tour is something you actually can hold against him, but that was a complicated situation with Valverde. We don't know who said what and what not, but its rather something, I think, you should hold against Movistar as an organisation/team instead of Quintana.

I get where you're coming from but people knock on him way too much for that, and for being a calculating rider in general. And they forget just how fun that stage was. Froome had been pretty strong leading up to that, yet Quintana attacked the yellow jersey from 55km out. Had Anacona managed to get himself on the break (not that I blame him) that stage would've been truly epic.

He went at the bottom of the hill at Valenciana as he's done in so many other races. He pushed on at Formigal and (rightly or wrongly) down Stelvio. He attacked on Ventoux last year on heavy legs out of sheer desperation, even after the whipping he got on La Pierre St. Martin for doing just that. He got on a flat break on Route de Sud, for chrissakes. He is as attacking a Grand Tour rider as we have seen since Alberto Contador came on the scene.

But he's just never going to be as good on the flat as Contador. It's simple physics. He weighs about 55 kg. He's a good three inches shorter than even Pantani and Gaul. He can't go on a long haul attack on a light gradient like he's Eddy Merckx. He can't beat Froome mano-a-mano on an Unipublic stage, particularly early in a stage race, where he needs to hold on for all he can or it's race over before it has even started. Which, IMHO, is great. If he was strong enough to do that then it would be so boring to watch him destroy everyone up any hill. One of the great things about cycling, and Grand Tours in general, is that different riders can win under different conditions.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

That said, he also could have tried a bit harder in the 2015 TdF, waiting for the final gc relevant stage to really attack/try something before the final climb when he was stronger than Froome wasn't the best strategy.

Of course you don't and yes, the 2015-Tour is something you actually can hold against him, but that was a complicated situation with Valverde. We don't know who said what and what not, but its rather something, I think, you should hold against Movistar as an organisation/team instead of Quintana.

I get where you're coming from but people knock on him way too much for that, and for being a calculating rider in general. And they forget just how fun that stage was. Froome had been pretty strong leading up to that, yet Quintana attacked the yellow jersey from 55km out. Had Anacona managed to get himself on the break (not that I blame him) that stage would've been truly epic.

He went at the bottom of the hill at Valenciana as he's done in so many other races. He pushed on at Formigal and (rightly or wrongly) down Stelvio. He attacked on Ventoux last year on heavy legs out of sheer desperation, even after the whipping he got on La Pierre St. Martin for doing just that. He got on a flat break on Route de Sud, for chrissakes. He is as attacking a Grand Tour rider as we have seen since Alberto Contador came on the scene.

But he's just never going to be as good on the flat as Contador. It's simple physics. He weighs about 55 kg. He's a good three inches shorter than even Pantani and Gaul. He can't go on a long haul attack on a light gradient like he's Eddy Merckx. He can't beat Froome mano-a-mano on an Unipublic stage, particularly early in a stage race, where he needs to hold on for all he can or it's race over before it has even started. Which, IMHO, is great. If he was strong enough to do that then it would be so boring to watch him destroy everyone up any hill. One of the great things about cycling, and Grand Tours in general, is that different riders can win under different conditions.

I think they knock him way too much as well and thats also even when he is winning, citing the lack of panache and cojones. The knock on that particular Tour is fair tho as long as it is kept civil and reasonable taken the whole situation into consideration. Thats an important point.

Overall very good post which I agree with.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

Quintana has the race sewn up by now. He was the strongest on the very steep section, but couldn't or wouldn't continue. Would have been close to impossible to win the stage anyways.

Good performance, nothing out of the ordinary really, just the hugely efficient and killing machine Quintana we know.

Quintana rides with a calculator in his pocket. Lol. It amazes me the way he rides. Very smart rider. But I think he missed the numbers at the 2015 Tour.

He is wise beyond his years. Even in his early seasons with Movistar riding in support of Valverde at the Vuelta he had a sense about him that was very mature for a rider of his age at the time. I for one can appreciate his methods. They obviously work for him for the most part and I can also respect his honesty. He was asked in an interview about his lack of success (not winning) at the Tour compared to the other grand tours and he plainly stated that maybe it's because the rider that has been beating him is simply stronger. That doesn't mean that he's going to give up trying to win the Tour. I have no issues with his approach to racing.

Yep, he is indeed wise, in no interview he says the baloney that the average rider will say, his analysis of the situation is often spot on and he is very mature. Thats important characteristics for a GT-rider, especially one that is trying to do what seems impossible.

He will need all of that, the racing smarts, maturity and calculative nature to win the double.

 

[Valv.Piti]

More than decent time trial today, very hard course for Nairo today and the wind obviously affected the race.. If he continues winning 3-4 stage races every year, he will reach and surpass Contador in the near future.