Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[Rollthedice]

Re:

Quintana playing the waiting game. I guess he had a reason today with Amador in the lead group.

He using his calculator again. I guess he believes that Dumoulin is not Froome. He could be right. Let's see.

What I said above. He is incapable of generating any winning move apart from attacking on high mountains. It's even more sad considering he has by far the best team at his disposal.

 

[Escarabajo]

Additionally, Sunweb had help from other teams! :sad:

 

[King Boonen]

One down...

 

[SeriousSam]

Re:

The graph conveniently updates every time you refresh with the latest market activity. Doesn't look like today was a missed opportunity.

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

The graph conveniently updates every time you refresh with the latest market activity. Doesn't look like today was a missed opportunity.

Actually it was in the sense that it is another hard day gone by. We can argue as to whether it was hard enough, but still it doesn't matter what a graph says...it's another day gone by.

 

[SeriousSam]

Re: Re:

Quintana playing the waiting game. I guess he had a reason today with Amador in the lead group.

He using his calculator again. I guess he believes that Dumoulin is not Froome. He could be right. Let's see.

What I said above. He is incapable of generating any winning move apart from attacking on high mountains. It's even more sad considering he has by far the best team at his disposal.

What should they have done today in your opinion?

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re: Re:

Quintana playing the waiting game. I guess he had a reason today with Amador in the lead group.

He using his calculator again. I guess he believes that Dumoulin is not Froome. He could be right. Let's see.

What I said above. He is incapable of generating any winning move apart from attacking on high mountains. It's even more sad considering he has by far the best team at his disposal.

Mountains were not hard enough today. He will take all the time he needs in the 16th stage.

 

[Rollthedice]

Re: Re:

Quintana playing the waiting game. I guess he had a reason today with Amador in the lead group.

He using his calculator again. I guess he believes that Dumoulin is not Froome. He could be right. Let's see.

What I said above. He is incapable of generating any winning move apart from attacking on high mountains. It's even more sad considering he has by far the best team at his disposal.

What should they have done today in your opinion?

He had three riders up the road. Why? On the last climb he could've tried what Nibali did and later Pinot or at least counter attack. But you're right, he is not a descender who can create gaps, not a rouleur and not a TTer to distance anybody on the flat. He's a climber and that's about all.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Quintana playing the waiting game. I guess he had a reason today with Amador in the lead group.

He using his calculator again. I guess he believes that Dumoulin is not Froome. He could be right. Let's see.

What I said above. He is incapable of generating any winning move apart from attacking on high mountains. It's even more sad considering he has by far the best team at his disposal.

Mountains were not hard enough today. He will take all the time he needs in the 16th stage.

taking 3+' at once? how?

 

[staubsauger]

Re: Re:

Quintana playing the waiting game. I guess he had a reason today with Amador in the lead group.

He using his calculator again. I guess he believes that Dumoulin is not Froome. He could be right. Let's see.

What I said above. He is incapable of generating any winning move apart from attacking on high mountains. It's even more sad considering he has by far the best team at his disposal.

Mountains were not hard enough today. He will take all the time he needs in the 16th stage.

taking 3+' at once? how?

https://youtu.be/h2FQqHF8x5I

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re: Re:

Quintana playing the waiting game. I guess he had a reason today with Amador in the lead group.

He using his calculator again. I guess he believes that Dumoulin is not Froome. He could be right. Let's see.

What I said above. He is incapable of generating any winning move apart from attacking on high mountains. It's even more sad considering he has by far the best team at his disposal.

Mountains were not hard enough today. He will take all the time he needs in the 16th stage.

taking 3+' at once? how?

I think we all know what's the plan and it's pretty straight forward. Send teammates ahead, isolate Dumoulin on Stelvio and attack to bridge with teammates up front. Nothing complicated and there is no reason to think that Quintana can't pull it off. Also Dumoulin likes to ride his own pace instead of responding instantly to attacks which makes him vulnerable to such tactics.

 

[ice&fire]

Re: Re:

The graph conveniently updates every time you refresh with the latest market activity. Doesn't look like today was a missed opportunity.

Is this graph a product by the same bookies of the Brexit predictions?

 

[LeoMontero]

Someone think that Doumolin, born and grown in Netherlands, -50 mts under the sea level, can match a guy that born and grow +2500 meters above sea level in the stages 16, that goes over 2000 meters? and then there are 2 and even 3 stages that suits pure climbers.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Quintana playing the waiting game. I guess he had a reason today with Amador in the lead group.

He using his calculator again. I guess he believes that Dumoulin is not Froome. He could be right. Let's see.

What I said above. He is incapable of generating any winning move apart from attacking on high mountains. It's even more sad considering he has by far the best team at his disposal.

Mountains were not hard enough today. He will take all the time he needs in the 16th stage.

taking 3+' at once? how?

I think we all know what's the plan and it's pretty straight forward. Send teammates ahead, isolate Dumoulin on Stelvio and attack to bridge with teammates up front. Nothing complicated and there is no reason to think that Quintana can't pull it off. Also Dumoulin likes to ride his own pace instead of responding instantly to attacks which makes him vulnerable to such tactics.

thanks, there is no an ounce of doubt as expected. given you confidence, i'm quite sure we'll know the giro 2017 winner straight after the finish of stage 16.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

The graph conveniently updates every time you refresh with the latest market activity. Doesn't look like today was a missed opportunity.

Good graph, Sam. I didn't really expect him to move a finger today either, he will have a dig to the top at Oropa and then there's 4 high mountain stages, 3 of them in a row, where he theoretically should be able to gain 4 minutes in total on Dumoulin.

 

[Tonton]

Re:

Quintana has put himself in the "Sagan" position in this race. He's gone out and openly stated he's going to go for the win and then the Tour win, setting himself as the benchmark. He's now in the incredibly difficult position of having to put a huge amount of time into TD, but also having to put time into Nibali and Mollema as both are within the time they will likely take from him on the final TT. This possibly even applies to Pinot if yesterday was an off day. TD, on the other hand, can let 4 of them take time out of him as long as he manages the loses well, knowing that he is likely to put at least 1 1/2 minutes or more into each of them. Quintana can't put all his chips on Stelvio, even if he manages to crack TD he could end up dragging NIbali, Mollema and Pinot with him to the finish. He needs to take time everywhere he can, even a handful of seconds here and there to keep chipping away at that lead.

Quintana is capable, and there are enough stages left where he can take time, but I think it's going to be really hard if TD doesn't crack. Having said that, I think TD will crack at some point, but we shall see.

Excellent post and I agree wholeheartedly. How do you eat an elephant? One bite at the time. Quintana cannot bet on stage 16 alone. Too big of a bite, and who knows he could be in average form on that day. Raced hard, Oropa can produce some gaps. 30 would come a long way. Then the Stelvio...

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Quintana playing the waiting game. I guess he had a reason today with Amador in the lead group.

He using his calculator again. I guess he believes that Dumoulin is not Froome. He could be right. Let's see.

What I said above. He is incapable of generating any winning move apart from attacking on high mountains. It's even more sad considering he has by far the best team at his disposal.

What should they have done today in your opinion?

He had three riders up the road. Why? On the last climb he could've tried what Nibali did and later Pinot or at least counter attack. But you're right, he is not a descender who can create gaps, not a rouleur and not a TTer to distance anybody on the flat. He's a climber and that's about all.

The threat of Quintana attacking on one of the final two climbs was more dangerous than the execution I think. Like you said, it would have been very hard for such a light rider to make an attack stick on the descent, even with a teammate to help. But just the threat forced Sunweb to work hard all day and allowed Movistar and Bahrain to get a very close look at their team strength. Also any attack would have damaged the time gained by Amador, which now allows some nice tactical chances later in the race.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

Quintana playing the waiting game. I guess he had a reason today with Amador in the lead group.

He using his calculator again. I guess he believes that Dumoulin is not Froome. He could be right. Let's see.

What I said above. He is incapable of generating any winning move apart from attacking on high mountains. It's even more sad considering he has by far the best team at his disposal.

What should they have done today in your opinion?

He had three riders up the road. Why? On the last climb he could've tried what Nibali did and later Pinot or at least counter attack. But you're right, he is not a descender who can create gaps, not a rouleur and not a TTer to distance anybody on the flat. He's a climber and that's about all.

I think the main reason is because Andrei was ahead. Probably Movistar wanted to have Amador closer on GC.

He was to passive, I am sure he following the usual orders.

I thought it was a missed opportunity as well, even if he didn't gain any time to scare Dumo or wear him out bit by bit. But it could still be OK. Dumo still have to stand his attacks in the high mountains. They are betting on Dumo not being Froome. Let's wait and see.

 

[lenric]

Good luck with that. 4 minutes won't be enough with a 30 km flat time trial ahead.

 

[carton]

They made it hard for Sunweb. They gave Tom D a hard day in the saddle, and (FWIW) Nairo wasted less energy than the other MR guys (Pinot & Nibali -sorry Mollema, you've signaled your podium intent). They might have been able to take more of an advantage, but it wasn't just there for the taking as it may have seemed either. Particularly because as was apparent, the other GC teams will ride for their interest, which is not solely taking the Rosa off Major Tom. So Amador becomes even more effective as a foil, as he forces the other teams to chase, if he can manage not to lose time at Oropa. All in all, par for the course, as the course flattens out and hits a lull. Which, unless someone really cracks, will probably last until the last 5km of Saturday's stage, when Movistar finishes setting the plate on Saturday as in Blockhaus.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Re:

Someone think that Doumolin, born and grown in Netherlands, -50 mts under the sea level, can match a guy that born and grow +2500 meters above sea level in the stages 16, that goes over 2000 meters? and then there are 2 and even 3 stages that suits pure climbers.

Maastricht, where Tom was born, is 50 meters above sea level, the lowest point in the Netherlands is 7 meters below sea level. Just saying

& he trained at altitude, & he doesn't have to match Quintana, just limit his losses. He has (considering the last TT) around 4 minutes to play with

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Someone think that Doumolin, born and grown in Netherlands, -50 mts under the sea level, can match a guy that born and grow +2500 meters above sea level in the stages 16, that goes over 2000 meters? and then there are 2 and even 3 stages that suits pure climbers.

I doubt many people really believes he isn't going to blow up massively at some point in the final week. Except his fanboys and a few of his compatriots I guess.

Don't forget the descents as well. Dutch riders tend to be really horrible descenders under pressure, probably because it's a skill they've had to learn relatively late in their careers compared with southern Europeans and the current generation of Colombians. If the longest descent in the country takes five minutes, then I guess it's kind of hard to become good at it. It doesn't come as naturally to them, and under pressure the cracks appear.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

The graph conveniently updates every time you refresh with the latest market activity. Doesn't look like today was a missed opportunity.

Perhaps not a missed expected opportunity, but it could very well be a missed unexpected opportunity.

 

[dacooley]

Re: Re:

Someone think that Doumolin, born and grown in Netherlands, -50 mts under the sea level, can match a guy that born and grow +2500 meters above sea level in the stages 16, that goes over 2000 meters? and then there are 2 and even 3 stages that suits pure climbers.

I doubt many people really believes he isn't going to blow up massively at some point in the final week. Except his fanboys and a few of his compatriots I guess.

Don't forget the descents as well. Dutch riders tend to be really horrible descenders under pressure, probably because it's a skill they've had to learn relatively late in their careers compared with southern Europeans and the current generation of Colombians. If the longest descent in the country takes five minutes, then I guess it's kind of hard to become good at it. It doesn't come as naturally to them, and under pressure the cracks appear.

there is also a reverse exaggeration that as third week comes quintana will start flying uphill, turning the opponents to dust, easily gaining 1 minute and more on any big mountain stage. I personally didn't see it in any gt and quite sure it won't happen this time either. still quite obvious nairo's the most likely winner, that's for sure.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

Someone think that Doumolin, born and grown in Netherlands, -50 mts under the sea level, can match a guy that born and grow +2500 meters above sea level in the stages 16, that goes over 2000 meters? and then there are 2 and even 3 stages that suits pure climbers.

I doubt many people really believes he isn't going to blow up massively at some point in the final week. Except his fanboys and a few of his compatriots I guess.

Don't forget the descents as well. Dutch riders tend to be really horrible descenders under pressure, probably because it's a skill they've had to learn relatively late in their careers compared with southern Europeans and the current generation of Colombians. If the longest descent in the country takes five minutes, then I guess it's kind of hard to become good at it. It doesn't come as naturally to them, and under pressure the cracks appear.

there is also a reverse exaggeration that as third week comes quintana will start flying uphill, turning the opponents to dust, easily gaining 1 minute and more on any big mountain stage. I personally didn't see it in any gt and quite sure it won't happen this time either. still quite obvious nairo's the most likely winner, that's for sure.

I think Quintana could fairly easily gain a minute on most of the field here on a lot of those third week stages. He's done it before against better opposition in the Tour. The one exception is Nibali. If he's got his usual third week Giro form then he's a massive threat to Quintana imo. He won't be easy to drop and can gain a bit of time himself on descents and the final TT.

A lot of the hype is about Dumoulin, but the real threat to Quintana surely comes from Nibali. A rider who is unlikely to crack any time and has the skills to take time of his own on any of the last five or so stages.