Teams & Riders Nairo Quintana discussion thread

[DFA123]

And what's so unlikely about that scenario? Seems at least as likely as the scenario of Nibali's 3rd week resurrecting elevating his climbing abilities above Quintana's.

Because to do that he would have to survive the four very hard stages before that. Which is very unlikely.

Nibali on the other hand doesn't have to elevate his climbing above Quintana to be in contention. That's pretty weak analysis. He just needs to limit his loses to small amounts, which if he he repeats last years form is a real possibility. Then take time back on descents and even the TT.

 

[Valv.Piti]

The track sprinter Quintana does it again, clearly superior to the overrated Gaviria.

Now lets hope he didn't hurt himself at all and will be at 100% and in good spirits on Tuesday, throw the good climbing rouleurs Izagirre, Rojas and Sutherland up the road and do the magic on Stelvio with Amador, Anacona and De La Parte and try to join up with them in the valley. Can't wait!

 

[LaFlorecita]

Dumo can lose time without cracking, like on Blockhaus. It's definitely possible Quintana takes, say, 2 minutes on stage 16 and 2 more on the remaining stages.

 

[diego721]

LOL

He stand a chance in Il Lombardia with that kind of sprinting abilities

 

[DFA123]

Re:

Dumo can lose time without cracking, like on Blockhaus. It's definitely possible Quintana takes, say, 2 minutes on stage 16 and 2 more on the remaining stages.

I just can't see it working out that way. If he loses 2 minutes on stage 16 then I think he's done for sure. If he's got to the condition where Quintana is two minutes up the road on Umbrail pass, then he's obviously on his absolute limit. Where is he going to recover to limit his losses to just 30 seconds a day in the following four stages?

 

[SeriousSam]

And what's so unlikely about that scenario? Seems at least as likely as the scenario of Nibali's 3rd week resurrecting elevating his climbing abilities above Quintana's.

Because to do that he would have to survive the four very hard stages before that. Which is very unlikely.

Nibali on the other hand doesn't have to elevate his climbing above Quintana to be in contention. That's pretty weak analysis. He just needs to limit his loses to small amounts, which if he he repeats last years form is a real possibility. Then take time back on descents and even the TT.

Fair enough on Nibali. I'll be very surprised though if he can even somewhat close the gap to Quintana in climbing terms. Except for the final TT, I can only see him losing further time to Quintana, and progressively more time at that.

As for Dumoulin, I don't see why only a complete cracking can result in his loss. A failure to recover as well as Quintana could see him start losing time on the order of what Pinot, Nibali, Zakarin or Mollema are liable to lose to Quintana on any given mountain stage. 30 seconds, a minute, a minute and a half. Whilst now, he is a better climber than they are, inferior recovery and non- __/ stages might degrade him to a climber just below their level in the third week. Repeated moderate losses could then make it close with a TT still to come.

Finally: You seem to think Dumoulin is much less likely to win than the odds indicate. Are you backing Quintanta and Nibali?

 

[Malmeren]

So, if (or when) Quintana loses the Giro, does he go to the Tour? If The Double is gone anyway will he rather focus on the Vuelta? I think it would suit Valverde perfectly to be undisputed leader in the Tour...

 

[RattaKuningas]

Re:

So, if (or when) Quintana loses the Giro, does he go to the Tour? If The Double is gone anyway will he rather focus on the Vuelta? I think it would suit Valverde perfectly to be undisputed leader in the Tour...

Is there any reason for him not to go the tour? If Valverde is a leader then it takes more pressure of Quintana as well. If he wins TdF then it is a huge deal but if he won't then no problem either.
I mean he could see how he feels in the first mountain stage of the tour and make a decision then what to do because I don't think that rolling along on flats is a problem for him.

 

[capuldemetal]

how many stages can be defined as real ,hard mountain stages in this years' tour de france? i've counted only2 or 3.

 

[Malmeren]

Re: Re:

So, if (or when) Quintana loses the Giro, does he go to the Tour? If The Double is gone anyway will he rather focus on the Vuelta? I think it would suit Valverde perfectly to be undisputed leader in the Tour...

Is there any reason for him not to go the tour? If Valverde is a leader then it takes more pressure of Quintana as well. If he wins TdF then it is a huge deal but if he won't then no problem either.
I mean he could see how he feels in the first mountain stage of the tour and make a decision then what to do because I don't think that rolling along on flats is a problem for him.

The reason would be that he is very unlikely to win the Tour, so instead of the Double he comes away with nothing. Especially since the Tour is really not suited to him this year.

 

[rghysens]

Re:

how many stages can be defined as real ,hard mountain stages in this years' tour de france? i've counted only2 or 3.

Real hard mountain stages? 0.
I'm counting 3 hard mountain stages (Chambéry, Peyragudes, Serre Chevalier), but I won't qualify them as real hard (compared to f.e. the stage to Bormio in this giro).

 

[vass45]

I just had a look at the odds and I'm shocked Dummo is the short priced favorite at $1.60, and Nario is $2.50. I thought it would be much close than that.... Im going to have a decent amount of $$ on Nario at those juicy odds of $2.50. I know Dummo has a 2.41min advantage on Nario, but the real racing hasn't even started yet....!!

Nario can make up a couple of minutes or more possibly back on Dummo on stage 16, and should be able to continue to take time off him in the remaining stages. Its still perfectly set up for him, and as someone else mentioned Nario may be in fact just as concerned about Nibali as he is Dummo.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

how many stages can be defined as real ,hard mountain stages in this years' tour de france? i've counted only2 or 3.

Real hard mountain stages? 0.
I'm counting 3 hard mountain stages (Chambéry, Peyragudes, Serre Chevalier), but I won't qualify them as real hard (compared to f.e. the stage to Bormio in this giro).

Agree. Then you got a monoclimb stage to Belles Filles (which it fine, I guess), a 100 km stage to Foix and a pretty meh stage to Izoard. Not much to celebrate.. but the 3 stage you mentioned are all looking kinda good.

 

[DFA123]

And what's so unlikely about that scenario? Seems at least as likely as the scenario of Nibali's 3rd week resurrecting elevating his climbing abilities above Quintana's.

Because to do that he would have to survive the four very hard stages before that. Which is very unlikely.

Nibali on the other hand doesn't have to elevate his climbing above Quintana to be in contention. That's pretty weak analysis. He just needs to limit his loses to small amounts, which if he he repeats last years form is a real possibility. Then take time back on descents and even the TT.

Fair enough on Nibali. I'll be very surprised though if he can even somewhat close the gap to Quintana in climbing terms. Except for the final TT, I can only see him losing further time to Quintana, and progressively more time at that.

As for Dumoulin, I don't see why only a complete cracking can result in his loss. A failure to recover as well as Quintana could see him start losing time on the order of what Pinot, Nibali, Zakarin or Mollema are liable to lose to Quintana on any given mountain stage. 30 seconds, a minute, a minute and a half. Whilst now, he is a better climber than they are, inferior recovery and non- __/ stages might degrade him to a climber just below their level in the third week. Repeated moderate losses could then make it close with a TT still to come.

Finally: You seem to think Dumoulin is much less likely to win than the odds indicate. Are you backing Quintanta and Nibali?

I have to day, I am very surprised at the change in the odds since the start. The way it has panned out so far is what always looked likely imo from the start. Dumoulin with a lead from the first two weeks, before the mountain stages. Perhaps his lead is slightly bigger than the bookies anticipated, but surely no-one thought Quintana would be in pink by this stage? Of course, the bookies can hedge their bets now though and probably have already ensured they make a nice profit whatever the overall result.

Yeah, I think Quintana is a strong favourite, with Nibali an outside bet. I'm sure he'll try something on a descent or a long range attack somewhere, but those kind of moves shouldn't really work against a proven GC rider with a strong team, like Quintana.

 

[Dukerojo]

Re: Re:

how many stages can be defined as real ,hard mountain stages in this years' tour de france? i've counted only2 or 3.

Real hard mountain stages? 0.
I'm counting 3 hard mountain stages (Chambéry, Peyragudes, Serre Chevalier), but I won't qualify them as real hard (compared to f.e. the stage to Bormio in this giro).

But at the same time the TdF have less than 40km of TT.

 

[Valv.Piti]

http://movistarteam.com/news/2017-5...eam-willing-to-give-it-all-in-giro-final-week

As always good analysis, says Dumoulin being in pink at this point isn't surprising, however its surprising that he is 'way stronger' that most (he) would have have thought. Also called him a gentleman because he waited, but said that they would have caught up anyways, most likely.

Crash won't hinder his performance, fear of descending is non-existent, tomorrow is a great stage to take time off Dumoulin. So no *** or excuses which obviously always is nice.

 

[Rollthedice]

Quintana says he needs 40 sec on Dumo before the final TT. Well, good luck with that.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Yeah Quintana, or more likely Movistar, is going to go berserk tomorrow and the rest of the week. But tomorrow is a big day. And thursday as well. If Dumoulin only loses 1 min in total in both stages then it's undoable. If he loses 2 min it's open (with the other, less hard mountain stages remaining to gain time), if he loses 3 min or more then Quintana should be able to finish it off

 

[yaco]

Re: Re:

how many stages can be defined as real ,hard mountain stages in this years' tour de france? i've counted only2 or 3.

Real hard mountain stages? 0.
I'm counting 3 hard mountain stages (Chambéry, Peyragudes, Serre Chevalier), but I won't qualify them as real hard (compared to f.e. the stage to Bormio in this giro).

My understanding is two of the mountain days are at high altitude.

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Quintana says he needs 40 sec on Dumo before the final TT. Well, good luck with that.

To be on the safe side a little bit over a minute. Maybe somewhere around 1:20- 1:30.
Maybe I am exaggerating because last TT is usually different.

Edit: I just read the transcript and he said that he doesn't know: 30 sec, 40 sec, ...

http://www.revistamundociclistico.com/ruta/23199-pienso-en-la-etapa-de-manana-por-lo-menos-si-no-le-quitamos-tiempo-al-lider-al-menos-trataremos-de-quitarle-fuerzas-nairo-quintana.html

 

[Escarabajo]

Re: Re:

how many stages can be defined as real ,hard mountain stages in this years' tour de france? i've counted only2 or 3.

Real hard mountain stages? 0.
I'm counting 3 hard mountain stages (Chambéry, Peyragudes, Serre Chevalier), but I won't qualify them as real hard (compared to f.e. the stage to Bormio in this giro).

But at the same time the TdF have less than 40km of TT.

TdF decided to make it bad for everybody, Puncheurs, Climbers and TT's. I don't know how can you mess it up like that?

 

[Dukerojo]

Re: Re:

how many stages can be defined as real ,hard mountain stages in this years' tour de france? i've counted only2 or 3.

Real hard mountain stages? 0.
I'm counting 3 hard mountain stages (Chambéry, Peyragudes, Serre Chevalier), but I won't qualify them as real hard (compared to f.e. the stage to Bormio in this giro).

But at the same time the TdF have less than 40km of TT.

TdF decided to make it bad for everybody, Puncheurs, Climbers and TT's. I don't know how can you mess it up like that?

It is the TdF, they are all about money

 

[silvergrenade]

Why does Nairo think 40 secs would be enough in the final TT?
A 30 km, pan-flat ITT, absolutely perfect for specialists, apart from the fact that it comes after a full, grueling three weeks of a GT.

I think he knows what he's talking about but Domoulin can take almost 2 mins in such a TT

 

[Escarabajo]

Re:

Why does Nairo think 40 secs would be enough in the final TT?
A 30 km, pan-flat ITT, absolutely perfect for specialists, apart from the fact that it comes after a full, grueling three weeks of a GT.

I think he knows what he's talking about but Domoulin can take almost 2 mins in such a TT

He just threw a number among others. It was the context that was misunderstood.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Re: Re:

how many stages can be defined as real ,hard mountain stages in this years' tour de france? i've counted only2 or 3.

Real hard mountain stages? 0.
I'm counting 3 hard mountain stages (Chambéry, Peyragudes, Serre Chevalier), but I won't qualify them as real hard (compared to f.e. the stage to Bormio in this giro).

But at the same time the TdF have less than 40km of TT.

TdF decided to make it bad for everybody, Puncheurs, Climbers and TT's. I don't know how can you mess it up like that?

Its really awkward. I guess thats TdF for you...