National Football League

[Alpe d'Huez]

Here's the NFL guys talking about the Welker pick play on Talib. I agree completely with Jeff Garcia. It was a pick, but no way was Welker of all people trying to intentionally take Talib out.

Richard Sherman was a very different person in the locker room. Very polite and classy. Sherman also spoke out against Seahawk fans who were throwing popcorn on NaVorro Bowman when he was carted off the field.

Meanwhile, Pete Carroll says Percy Harvin will be fine for the Superbowl and he expects him to get full practice.

Colin Kaepernick is taking the blame for the 49ers losing, saying he made poor judgment in two key throws that cost the the game.

Tom Brady is taking a lot of the blame for yesterday's loss, saying the team did little on offense, including bad throws by him. Bad news for Patriots fans is that Brady is getting older, and it might seem his deep field accuracy is fading. The good news is that they are one of the youngest teams in the NFL, with a lot of guys who now have real experience in big games. Look for the Pats to draft some no-name QB in the sixth round this season...

Cleveland Browns fans I feel your pain. Right now, no one wants to coach the team after the way Chud was kicked to the curb. Now, there's talk the team is willing to trade up in the draft to get Johnny Manzeil. Keep in mind that the Browns already stink so bad they have the #4 pick. Since Houston will play QB roulette as well, this means the Browns would likely have to trade up to get the #1 pick for fear that Houston would take Manzeil and not Bridgewater. I've written at length on why teams rely too heavily on QB's in the draft to "save" them, and the Browns seem to falling into that same trap as well. There's also talk in Cleveland that Weeden was so upset with Chud's firing, he wants out, and the Browns don't want him anyway. I imagine a lot of players in Cleveland feel the same.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

So, Seattle's offense puts up 24 on SF's D, but can only score 10 against Denver? And Denver puts up 26 on no-name players for New England in perfect weather, and can almost match that against Seattle in 40 degree colder temps?

Part II

How did DEN score only 26 points while gaining 507 !! beautiful executed offensive yards? (It could have been even more yards, as I counted at least 3 wide open receivers PM didn´t saw. Anyway, I don´t blame this QBs great playoff game. He has to decide in 2 seconds where to go. An unbelievebale task itself.)
Well, a lot has to do with the great coach Beli-Cheat (the not so great one when he opens his mouth or uses too dirty tactics). NE played a mistake free game, given the limitations at the receiver and TE spots (Brady overthrew twice on bombs that might have led to big gains. But who knows? Maybe they weren´t overthrown, but his receivers were too slow (for NFL standards). I guess his instincts and timing is still "computed" for faster receivers).
No turnovers and perfect special teams play put DEN into tough starting positions (on average their 24yL; inclusive !! the last drive that started at their own 49yL and ended with a kneel down by PM at NEs 12yL!). The scoring drives of DEN (actually that means every drive except the first and above mentioned last, which certainly would have led to points too, if needed) averaged a whopping 68 yards! The best of the best being the 93 yd drive. PM and his offense was unstoppable if the HC wasn´t Fox*. For me it culminated in a sweet pass play that had trips left, the TE right. All of us expected the old "trick" going right, but no, PM went the overload left side and still NE could do nothing. Two receivers on crossing patterns took out the DBs, the 3rd receiver picked up the easy reception while the receivers in front then blocked for more room to gain. AFIR the play went only 8-something yards. But I said they should use it every time until NE finds a cure b/c at that point it was unstoppable. I jokingly called it the "deep screen"... Anyway, DEN had more than this pass play for underneath patterns and PM connected on the long throws too. After all, it was a perfect day. No playoff nervousness, perfect execution, passes on target.
As my prediction is somewhere in the middle between PMs A and B game, it would not shock me if he puts 40 on SEA if he brings his A game.
But lets be conservative and calculate points like I did and explained to "on3" vs KC (Actually a tough D back then. I mention this b/c you said DEN didn´t met a good D so far):
DEN averages 36.4 points per game, SEA gives up 14.6 = 25.5 points expected for DEN. You can´t score 25.5 points, so the most likely outcome is 24 points (since we have to discount for bad weather). We can discount even more, as a "special bad weather PM tribute" and go down to 20 points. At the end it doesn´t matter as long DEN** wins, b/c this season then would go down as the greatest ever in my opinion (beating the 85-Bears one and the 99-SL one).

(* Fox and the weather are the only weak spots for DEN. Since PM discussed with Fox and a time-out was taken short before the last first half FG on 4th-and-1, the only sense it made was to go for it. Yet Fox got shy and led the leg swinger come in plus give NE time for a last drive. It was unlikely that NE would score, but such small blunders add up and may go wrong again in the future, as they did last year vs BAL...)

(** This is one of the rare occasions when even a 3-0 win would make me happy too. It just has to be the right team. Denver that is. )

Edit:
You somehow "blamed" NEs D for leaving PM with a clean game shirt. Well, that is what great and maybe soon called great QBs like Marino and PM do: They avoid being touched by the D, no matter which one shows up. A quick release is a trademark for almost unstoppable QBs. PM has the same low Sack-Pct as Marino. But I give the edge to Marino, since in the 80s QBs threw on longer patterns. Anyway, PM is the best of his era (QBs since 1998 with at least 1.000 total Atts = 74 of those). He is so good, that the gap to the 2nd best is as big as the gap between the 3rd and 9th.
http://www.pro-football-reference.c...pos_is_db=Y&draft_pos_is_k=Y&draft_pos_is_p=Y)

 

[ChewbaccaD]

My impression that san Fran received the short end of the stick was a result of what the commentators over here were saying- that san Fran can feel really aggrieved, and it certainly seemed that way from the clips they showed and talked over.

It's not the refs fault, but the system, which places too much faith in humans when video evidence is available (even challenged decisions go strongly in favour of whichever team got the initial call because if the "evidence to overturn stipulation, as Seattle saw against Arizona). Of course they go both ways in every game but it often brings the game down to luck.

I'm against the system. I think it's a bit unfair to say people who complain about it are "losers". Plenty of people want better officiating first and foremost.

I want better officiating, trust me. SF got away with 2 headbutts in the second half against us, 12 men in the huddle (contrary to the NFL's insisting that he left early, the rules clearly state there cannot be 12 men in the huddle), and various other calls that appeared to favor SF...but ultimately, we lost. Our team just didn't get it done. We had the ball on the 1 and failed to score twice, Cam Newton had the ball, driving and threw an interception in the 4th quarter.

My point is that relying on one roughing the punter call did not lose SF the game when you consider that their QB turned the ball over 3 times in the last 9 minutes. Again, they had the goal on their foot, they just missed it.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Here's the NFL guys talking about the Welker pick play on Talib. I agree completely with Jeff Garcia. It was a pick, but no way was Welker of all people trying to intentionally take Talib out.

Richard Sherman was a very different person in the locker room. Very polite and classy. Sherman also spoke out against Seahawk fans who were throwing popcorn on NaVorro Bowman when he was carted off the field.

Meanwhile, Pete Carroll says Percy Harvin will be fine for the Superbowl and he expects him to get full practice.

Colin Kaepernick is taking the blame for the 49ers losing, saying he made poor judgment in two key throws that cost the the game.

Tom Brady is taking a lot of the blame for yesterday's loss, saying the team did little on offense, including bad throws by him. Bad news for Patriots fans is that Brady is getting older, and it might seem his deep field accuracy is fading. The good news is that they are one of the youngest teams in the NFL, with a lot of guys who now have real experience in big games. Look for the Pats to draft some no-name QB in the sixth round this season...

Cleveland Browns fans I feel your pain. Right now, no one wants to coach the team after the way Chud was kicked to the curb. Now, there's talk the team is willing to trade up in the draft to get Johnny Manzeil. Keep in mind that the Browns already stink so bad they have the #4 pick. Since Houston will play QB roulette as well, this means the Browns would likely have to trade up to get the #1 pick for fear that Houston would take Manzeil and not Bridgewater. I've written at length on why teams rely too heavily on QB's in the draft to "save" them, and the Browns seem to falling into that same trap as well. There's also talk in Cleveland that Weeden was so upset with Chud's firing, he wants out, and the Browns don't want him anyway. I imagine a lot of players in Cleveland feel the same.

Initially, I didn't care too much about Chud being fired because of the taste he left with the team here, but ultimately, they fired a guy who is a really good offensive coach, who had no offense to speak of to work with in CLE. I used to think Daniel Snyder was the most incompetent owner in the NFL...

Secondly, I may be in the minority here, but Manzeil looks poised to be a spectacular bust. To paraphrase Apocalypse Now: The lights and space of the NFL are going to put the zap on his head. <- Noting that my success in prognostication skillz are pretty lackluster.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

Part II

How did DEN score only 26 points while gaining 507 !! beautiful executed offensive yards? (It could have been even more yards, as I counted at least 3 wide open receivers PM didn´t saw. Anyway, I don´t blame this QBs great playoff game. He has to decide in 2 seconds where to go. An unbelievebale task itself.)
Well, a lot has to do with the great coach Beli-Cheat (the not so great one when he opens his mouth or uses too dirty tactics). NE played a mistake free game, given the limitations at the receiver and TE spots (Brady overthrew twice on bombs that might have led to big gains. But who knows? Maybe they weren´t overthrown, but his receivers were too slow (for NFL standards). I guess his instincts and timing is still "computed" for faster receivers).
No turnovers and perfect special teams play put DEN into tough starting positions (on average their 24yL; inclusive !! the last drive that started at their own 49yL and ended with a kneel down by PM at NEs 12yL!). The scoring drives of DEN (actually that means every drive except the first and above mentioned last, which certainly would have led to points too, if needed) averaged a whopping 68 yards! The best of the best being the 93 yd drive. PM and his offense was unstoppable if the HC wasn´t Fox*. For me it culminated in a sweet pass play that had trips left, the TE right. All of us expected the old "trick" going right, but no, PM went the overload left side and still NE could do nothing. Two receivers on crossing patterns took out the DBs, the 3rd receiver picked up the easy reception while the receivers in front then blocked for more room to gain. AFIR the play went only 8-something yards. But I said they should use it every time until NE finds a cure b/c at that point it was unstoppable. I jokingly called it the "deep screen"... Anyway, DEN had more than this pass play for underneath patterns and PM connected on the long throws too. After all, it was a perfect day. No playoff nervousness, perfect execution, passes on target.
As my prediction is somewhere in the middle between PMs A and B game, it would not shock me if he puts 40 on SEA if he brings his A game.
But lets be conservative and calculate points like I did and explained to "on3" vs KC (Actually a tough D back then. I mention this b/c you said DEN didn´t met a good D so far):
DEN averages 36.4 points per game, SEA gives up 14.6 = 25.5 points expected for DEN. You can´t score 25.5 points, so the most likely outcome is 24 points (since we have to discount for bad weather). We can discount even more, as a "special bad weather PM tribute" and go down to 20 points. At the end it doesn´t matter as long DEN** wins, b/c this season then would go down as the greatest ever in my opinion (beating the 85-Bears one and the 99-SL one).

(* Fox and the weather are the only weak spots for DEN. Since PM discussed with Fox and a time-out was taken short before the last first half FG on 4th-and-1, the only sense it made was to go for it. Yet Fox got shy and led the leg swinger come in plus give NE time for a last drive. It was unlikely that NE would score, but such small blunders add up and may go wrong again in the future, as they did last year vs BAL...)

(** This is one of the rare occasions when even a 3-0 win would make me happy too. It just has to be the right team. Denver that is. )

I was just commenting yesterday how little I missed his ridiculously conservative play calling

An NFL coach who has the mantra "Sometimes a punt is a good play" is a man who will call a RB draw in exactly the wrong situation every time.

 

[The Hitch]

Most of the people I've read (not pundits) think Manziel is going to make Tim Tebow look like a draft steal.

I don't think Cleveland will reach for him. They could probably still get him with their Trent Richardson trade pick down in 25th or some such if not their 2nd round.

Some of his best plays ive seen are ones that are highly dependent on his strong recieving corps. Especially the ones where he runs around escaping tackles then throws the ball up without looking and his reciever punches off all the defenders and grabs it like Calvin Johnson.

Could work with Josh Gordon I guess. The Browns aren't a bad team. They tanked towards the end like the Texans but there is talent there apart from at qb.

 

[Merckx index]

I’m glad I’m not such a passionate Niner fan that I couldn’t enjoy a great game. There were a lot of mistakes by both teams, but for me that added to the drama. You have two young QBs who will get much better as they get more experienced making blunders, then making spectacular plays.

And really, given that San Francisco is a superior place to live than Seattle in just about every conceivable aspect—weather, culture, attitudes, opportunities, not to mention pro sports championships—it’s only fair that our less fortunate neighbors to the north be allowed to go to a SB once in a while. Bill Gates got rich by ripping off Apple, so it’s entirely appropriate that the Seahawks have achieved success with a team built much like the Niners.

Foxxy, if you think Denver will hold Seattle to ten points, you must be still drunk. You have argued about the twenty-three they put up on SF, with a much better defense than Denver’s, but it’s not just about points. SF has one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, and Lynch still got his one hundred yards. How many will he get against Denver, and if he runs wild, how much better will Wilson be, when he can pass when he wants to, not when he has to?

A lot of people seem to think Seattle has a poor offense. But they played much tougher defenses this year than Denver did. They played a total of five RS games against SF, AZ and CA, who have three of the best defenses in the NFL. Who did Denver play that had a good defense? KC? Their defense was good in the first half of the season, but by the time they played Denver, it was clearly on the decline. I don’t think there was a team in the AFC with a defense comparable to those three teams, and SE. Cincy came closest, but Denver didn’t play them.

We’re fortunate that Denver and Seattle both played the teams of the AFC S this year. That gives us four common opponents, plus the NY Giants, all of whom had pretty soft defenses. Denver had an average score of 49–31 against these five teams, Seattle was 35- 21. So while the Hawks don’t have the super offense of Denver, they clearly can score a lot against weak teams. And it ought to be pointed out that SE played Houston fairly early in the season, when the Texans had one of the best defenses in the NFL by some measures, whereas Denver played them at the end, when Houston had given up and rolled over.

By the way, Denver averaged forty six points per game through the first five games, thirty two since then. I'd say the latter figure is a better indication of where they're at now.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Foxxy, if you think Denver will hold Seattle to ten points, you must be still drunk. You have argued about the twenty-three they put up on SF, with a much better defense than Denver’s, but it’s not just about points.

I am serious and sober... What´s wrong with my arguments of how they got the 23 points? And it wasn´t much different vs NO (only 40.6 yards per scoring drive). Sure their great D gives them good field position, but I doubt they will be able to do it against DEN. Even if PM only brings his B game, thus he don´t score on most drives, DEN then should at least have long enough drives with punts that pin SEA deep in their own half....
Denvers D is underrated. They held SD and NE (both good offenses) to 3 points combined in the first half. When the lead got big enough, the D became "softer", thus leading to more points for the opponents. BTW, that might be true for the complete season. Brian Burke found out that great offenses tend to have defenses that give up more points than expected, b/c the opponent is in constant desperation mode (more risks, higher variance, more pass attempts (which have a much higher point expectation than runs), more plays against prevent defense). In other words: When the D of DEN has to keep the opponent scoring low, they succeed more often than not.
But still it´s true that SFs defense is better than Denvers. OTOH, SEA will not have HFA (which is around 3 points as i posted some weeks ago; and SEA has the best HFA since 10+ years. If I find the link, i´ll post it. AFIR, it was done by the Harvard guys), and their luck should regress also. And while you correctly pointed out that Denvers absurd high scoring regressed to the mean, the same can be said about their defense. AFIR they started out the first few weeks ranking close to dead last in Y/PP, and finished 17th.
I agree, it´s not just about points. We have better metrics (like Y/PP). I just wanted to make a quick stat to explain that it´s obvious that when you have games with great offenses vs great defenses, one can´t expect that the offense scores as much as against weaker teams.

SF has one of the best rushing defenses in the NFL, and Lynch still got his one hundred yards. How many will he get against Denver, and if he runs wild, how much better will Wilson be, when he can pass when he wants to, not when he has to?

Should he run wild. The best thing that can happen. As I pointed out, running the ball has lower point expectations than passing. There is a reason that regular and post season success is strongly correlated with effiecient passing (and pass defense), while efficient offensive rushing has almost zero correlation (speak: it´s almost irrelevant)...
What will Wilson do better? He did already pass only when he (respectively his coaches) wanted (a combined 43 pass attempts this post season), culminating in the 4th down free play. But what if he is forced to throw 43 times in a single game? It´s highly likely the sacks will mount, thus leading to many turnover chances (fumble chances on sacks are around 7 times as high as on other plays).
The perfect setting would be an agressive DEN game plan and PM with his A game. A DEN blow-out win in sight (I might be the only one in the world to wish for this, but that would be sweet. The game over at halftime, the greatest season ever accomplished. ). Anyway, nothing is perfect so I assume a Manning B game, thus for now I stand by my 24-10, max 24-17 prediction. And if things really go bad (PM bringing his "cold weather form") a DEN 20-17 or 3-0 win is also ok for me.

A lot of people seem to think Seattle has a poor offense. But they played much tougher defenses this year than Denver did. They played a total of five RS games against SF, AZ and CA, who have three of the best defenses in the NFL.

The (pass-)O of SEA started out good and then regressed as Denvers did. The only difference: Denver came down from very high standards...

Who did Denver play that had a good defense? KC? Their defense was good in the first half of the season, but by the time they played Denver, it was clearly on the decline.

No, it started after the first DEN game, when the key injuries happened in the SD game...

And it ought to be pointed out that SE played Houston fairly early in the season, when the Texans had one of the best defenses in the NFL by some measures, whereas Denver played them at the end, when Houston had given up and rolled over.

I agree. But how did they win? If not the stupid pass call and pick-6 (why o why didn´t HOU run down the clock?), no way SEA wins that game behind Wilsons 123 yards passing day...

By the way, Denver averaged forty six points per game through the first five games, thirty two since then. I'd say the latter figure is a better indication of where they're at now.

Agree. See my explanations above.
Anyway, I enjoy the discussion.

P.S.: The only way I see DEN to lose (and my biggest fear) is when DEN has one or two too many random turnovers (I´d call missed FGs as turnovers too in this case)...

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

@Merckx - Nature is better and closer in/near Seattle. Cost of living lower (barely). Summer weather better. Agree with the rest of what you said though.

I used to think Daniel Snyder was the most incompetent owner in the NFL...

Keep in mind, Ceveland changed owners a year ago. Meet the new boss...

Secondly, I may be in the minority here, but Manzeil looks poised to be a spectacular bust.

Count me in that minority. I believe you are being quite logical. Being able to scramble around and heave the ball down field up for grabs every few plays works much better in college against inconsistent defenders than the NFL. I question his decision making, his down field and outside accuracy, his arm strength, his size (I don't care if he's really 6' tall, Russell Wilson must have 25lbs more muscle on him, regardless of press releases) and his ego.

Most of the people I've read (not pundits) think Manziel is going to make Tim Tebow look like a draft steal.

I'm not going that far. But Tim was much more modest, and had real heart. And size. Both have equally accurate arms if you ask me, and relied on a lot of broken plays. Manzeil gets away with it with scrambling, Tebow with size.

I've said many times, it's rare to find an Andrew Luck in the draft. A guy you take #1, and he instantly delivers. We can much more easily count the highly drafted QB busts. Much better to find a good, slightly used QB, or a sharp guy a little lower in the draft (Wilson) if you can, and build a complete team in the process. But owners see rookie QBs as someone who has never failed in the NFL, thus could resurrect the franchise. But even the very talented RG3 couldn't do that with an iffy team and crazy coach who mortgaged the future to get him.

 

[ChewbaccaD]

@Merckx - Nature is better and closer in/near Seattle. Cost of living lower (barely). Summer weather better. Agree with the rest of what you said though.

I've been to both (Seattle x 2, and San Fran 4 times), and I prefer Seattle honestly. I don't mind depressing, crappy weather (which I never saw because both times I went it was beautiful), but with Olympic to the West, the Cascades to the East, the islands and Victoria to the North, and the fact that it is by far the prettier city, I'm taking Seattle every time. I love San Fran. The food is amazing, and it is pretty too, but it's not close for me. Not to mention there are ferries to Alaska really close...I love the place. And for my money, the Cascades are the most beautiful mountains in the US.

 

[Oldman]

I've been to both (Seattle x 2, and San Fran 4 times), and I prefer Seattle honestly. I don't mind depressing, crappy weather (which I never saw because both times I went it was beautiful), but with Olympic to the West, the Cascades to the East, the islands and Victoria to the North, and the fact that it is by far the prettier city, I'm taking Seattle every time. I love San Fran. The food is amazing, and it is pretty too, but it's not close for me. Not to mention there are ferries to Alaska really close...I love the place. And for my money, the Cascades are the most beautiful mountains in the US.

Thanks for the confirmation of my travels as well. You can get off work and be night skiing in less than an hour here and between Crystal Mountain and Whistler get more world class turns within 3 hrs than anywhere. I'm constantly amazed at early Spring days crossing Lake Washington over the 520 bridge, seeing bald eagles sitting on lightposts, Mount(s) Rainier, Baker, Cascade and Olympic Mountain range in one view. San Francisco is one of my favorite cities but more to appreciate here.

And for Hitchy:

Agree. See my explanations above.
Anyway, I enjoy the discussion.

P.S.: The only way I see DEN to lose (and my biggest fear) is when DEN has one or two too many random turnovers (I´d call missed FGs as turnovers too in this case)...

The turnovers won't be random. I've enjoyed watching PM play for years and a hard rush will fall.
You will also begin to appreciate Russell Wilson's talent. They didn't play close to their best game nor did SF/Kap. I'm looking forward to many years of those two as opponents. Either team would hurt Denver if they played them now. Spare us the metrics until the games over.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

P.S.: The only way I see DEN to lose (and my biggest fear) is when DEN has one or two too many random turnovers (I´d call missed FGs as turnovers too in this case)...
The turnovers won't be random....

You mean "The only way I see SEA to lose..."??

I presume you mean the ball bounces too many ways Denver's direction is the way Seattle beats them.

I'd live in either Seattle or SF in a heartbeat. You guys should try visiting somewhere crappy whenever you feel like your city doesn't have much to offer.

I think what I find most fascinating about Foxxy's argument is that for some time he's been critical of Payton Manning. Here's a link. Here's another. Calling him a choker, and lucky. Now, he's jumped 100% on the PM express. I'm curious what the epiphany was?!

Meanwhile, it's fun going back to some old posts. I'll share some of my pre-season predictions soon.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

@Merckx - Nature is better and closer in/near Seattle.

Nature, or the outdoors. Here's a sample from the Alpine Lakes Wilderness:
Autumn with the Enchantment Lakes, knife-edged Prusik Peak, and The Temple in the left background:

Some of the locals:

those spikey horns could do some damage.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I think what I find most fascinating about Foxxy's argument is that for some time he's been critical of Payton Manning. Here's a link. Here's another. Calling him a choker, and lucky. Now, he's jumped 100% on the PM express. I'm curious what the epiphany was?!

When did I call him lucky? May you mistake it with the little siz lucky Giants?

Anyway, I have said many times he´s a playoff choker. It´s true if you have a look at some of those mega busts when IND/DEN with him was a major fav.

Then somewhere in December I was curious to know how far behind he is. You remember those PM playoff posts by me?
To my surprise he isn´t as far behind as I thought. One more SB win, and he almost matches playoff expectations. Then I went on to explain that this year is the golden, and maybe last chance. If not this year, when then? As I said, DEN will be home fav in 2 games, he "only" has to put together 3 consecutive good games (instead of 3 away games as WC and then the SB) with the best offense ever. If he won´t win this year, then never again. He´s getting older and the opponents will have one off season to come up with ideas how to beat or at least trim down this offense (that happened to many great offenses).

In short, my "epiphany" came with my own posts.

@ Oldman: If we should discuss everything after the game is played, we might as well shut down this thread until february 3 or discuss the nature of California until then (in this case I am out ASAP, since this is an NFL thread). I have no problem with that, even tough I like some football discussions in between to kill the time...

 

[Merckx index]

Thanks for the lovely pictures. My comments on Seattle were, of course, somewhat tongue in cheek. I love the Pacific NW, go up there every summer for the fishing and camping. Still not sure I would want to live there all year round, though.

To the SEA points; one FG was a gift by the refs (see above), one TD came after the SF CB thought an NFL QB can´t throw 60 yards (may he watched too much Mirer footage as kid, who knows ), one TD came with a free play on 4th down. Will get SEA that lucky in the SB like the past two weeks (look also how they won vs NO; a coward game plan by Payton, missed FGs by the NO leg swinger, Colston throwing forward instead of going OoB)?

The problem with what-if scenarios is that both sides can play. What if Brady hadn’t overthrown a wide open Edelman, and NE takes a 1st quarter lead? What if he hadn’t misfired in several other critical situations? What if Seattle had made that pick just before Kap ran 58 yards? Or if Kap’s fumble had been recovered by a SE player just before the TD pass to Boldin? (Or going the other way—something bigmouth Sherman should have appreciated—what if a SF player had been in the vicinity when that tipped pass came down? Man, I’d love to see what Sherman would have said if that had happened.)

How many teams held SE to ten points this year? Only AZ. Only three other teams, CA, Stl and SF, held the Hawks to less than 20. And three of those four teams played SE a second time, and did not fare so well.

I grant you, SE outside of the Clink is not quite the same team. But against that, SE is better equipped to move the ball in cold and/or snow. I wouldn't make any predictions about over/under or margin of victory before I had a better knowledge of the weather.

I combine all those facts with what I saw with blurred eyes

Yeah, I’d definiteIy agree your vision was blurred.

You can´t score 25.5 points

Yeah, but if you’re drunk to the point of blurred vision, you can probably see 25.5 points on the scoreboard.

As I pointed out, running the ball has lower point expectations than passing.

Then why don’t teams pass on every down? Because then the defense knows what’s coming. Balance is still important. Also, as you well know, a good running game uses up more of the clock, which means Manning won’t get as much time on the field. After DE took a 23-3 lead early in the fourth quarter, NE scored a TD in just two and a half minutes. After DE answered with another FG, NE scored a second TD in four minutes. NE needed to score quickly, but the point is, Manning was gifted with a lot of time to pile up those 500 yards. Don’t expect he will get that much time vs. SE.

We had the ball on the 1 and failed to score twice

Chewy, since you’re harder on Newton than I am, you have credibility in blaming Kaep. But that quote is not true. In the first place, the second time CA got a FG. But even to say you failed to score the first time, while technically true, is misleading. The first time CA was stopped at the 1, the 49ers, after getting the ball back, went three and out. After the punt and nice return, CA had the ball on the SF 30 or so, and scored immediately. Had CA punched it in originally from the one, they would have kicked off, SF probably would have had the ball at least on the 20, and even if they had gone three and out (less likely, because at that position a team is less conservative), following a punt CA most likely would have had the ball in their own territory. It would have been much harder to score. IOW, getting stopped at the 1 arguably set up their TD.

Some interesting facts:

1) Since 2007, Manning is 55-1 in games in which he leads at any time by double digits (or maybe it’s halftime, I’m not sure). The only exception was vs. NE in the RS this year.
2) Manning is the third QB to lead two different teams to the SB, joining Kurt “T-5” Warner and Craig “B-5?” Morton (who also led Denver the second time, and against his former team, Dallas). Manning could become the first QB to win SBs with two different teams.
3) Before the DE game, Brady/NE had not played a postseason game on the road (not counting SBs) since 2007, when they lost to Manning at Indy. It’s easier to get home games in the postseason when your division is composed of perennial doormats. But this also reflects that NE has had a lot of one and done years in that time period. After winning his first ten postseason games, Brady is 8-8 in the playoffs.
4) Going into the NFC championship, Harbaugh and Carroll had each won 41 games as a pro coach, though Harbaugh did it in three years to Carroll’s four.
5) Harbaugh beat SE and Carroll in SF in his first game as HC of the 49ers, 36-17. In the six games the two teams have played since then, the 49ers have never scored more than 19 points.
6) The SB point spread, 1-2 points last I heard, is the lowest since 1981-2, when an NFC team with a strong defense and a very young, mobile QB played an AFC team led by the best offense in the NFL, fresh off stopping SD’s vaunted passing attack. The 49ers scored early, got a couple of key interceptions, shut down Cincy completely in the first half, and won fairly easily.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

The problem with what-if scenarios is that both sides can play.

I used them to point out that you can´t depend on luck as a repeatable "skill". I used the examples to show that SEA has some offense problems (which starts where it always starts; at the OL-play). I did not do it to try to make a point that SEA doesn´t belong to the SB. So I wonder why you have a problem with it.

SE is better equipped to move the ball in cold and/or snow.

That PM had his problems (I hope he´s over that now) in cold weather (I prefer to say in playoff games in general) is discussed at length. Anyway, I have accounted for that in my conservative pick already.
But where does your knowledge come from that SEA moves the ball better than DEN in the cold or snow?
Check the facts before lashing out. Last time I checked... No, no, i won´t go down to attack style like you, just b/c we disagree...
I just had a quick look at the cold games SEA played with Wilson as QB. If we could agree 40F as limit, SEA had exactly 1 game below or at 40F. So we simply don´t know if SEA is better than DEN in the cold. Does bad weather favour SEA b/c they run more and have a better D? Maybe, but only to a tiny little effect. Unless extreme cold temperatures (20F or less), the efficiency of passing goes down by less than 2% compared to overall efficiency. There is virtually no scoring difference when comparing cold to "normal" weather games.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2012/01/weather-effects-on-passing.html
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/01/cold-weather-effect-on-scoring.html
It´s safe to say that HFA at least has an visible effect, and which is much bigger than any weather condition comparisons that might favour SEA. OTOH, there won´t be any HFA in New Jersey...

Yeah, I’d definiteIy agree your vision was blurred....
Yeah, but if you’re drunk to the point of blurred vision, you can probably see 25.5 points on the scoreboard....
“T-5” Warner and Craig “B-5?”...

Those are arguments to proof your points, or disprove mine?
I apologized in my opening post to Alpe that I havn´t seen too much clear of the SEA game (but it was worth it to have a good party instead, especially considering how the 2nd game went), so if I am wrong I am open to change my view. But those sentences doesn´t do. But I give you the benefit for coming up with the great trivia answers...

Then why don’t teams pass on every down? Because then the defense knows what’s coming. Balance is still important.

A fair question... another one; why do teams punt/kick on 4th and short?
All I know is that on 3rd and long teams pass 90+% of time. The effect? Passing efficiency doesn´t go down to an visible effect, even tough the D knows what´s coming. But the real beauty is; running efficiency goes way up. In other words, the more you pass (to a certain point), the more efficient your run game becomes, thus improving your overall expected points. Or to correct an old saying; "the pass sets up the run", not the other way around.
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/08/play-calling-on-3rd-and-short-part-1.html
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2008/09/play-calling-on-3rd-and-short-part-2.html
http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/12/run-pass-imbalance-on-2nd-and-3rd-downs.html
Remember the play action passing stats I linked circa two weeks ago? The success is independent of a good running game...

Also, as you well know, a good running game uses up more of the clock

Agree. Always said this. Plus, passing becomes much harder to succeed the shorter the field gets. I preach running on short 3rd/4th downs, and inside the opp10yL since long (always fear those KW-like 100-yard-pick-6 when "my" great passing team reaches the opp goal-line ).
And, if you read the linked articles, 90%+ passing on 3rd and long may be a tad too high (I learned that, speak was open to change my view... before that, I discussed with my guys to pass 100% b/c passing efficiency doesn´t decline when the D knows what´s coming). Not b/c passing efficiency declines, but b/c running becomes so more successful. Perfect example from sunday: PM audible on 3rd-11 to a run play. Result: beautiful 1st down.

After DE took a 23-3 lead early in the fourth quarter, NE scored a TD in just two and a half minutes. After DE answered with another FG, NE scored a second TD in four minutes.

So you mean the should have run more? Besides the risk of an 3-and-out, I don´t see anything wrong with going for more points by scoring on each drive (mostly b/c of great passing).
We saw it too often that teams got a big lead, tried to run too much, punted a couple of times, and then lost.
The much better strategy with a big lead is going with your strengh, run more often but not exclusivly, keep the ball inbounds, use the 40-sec-clock. No more need to attack aggresively.
So the problem wasn´t the offense, but the defense that gave up points to fast. As it usual is in comeback games.

Manning was gifted with a lot of time to pile up those 500 yards. Don’t expect he will get that much time vs. SE.

So NE shouldn´t have played perfect special teams and turnover-free offense, thus giving Denver shorter fields, less plays and less yards?*
Anyway, DEN had 71 offensive plays. Six more than the NFL average. The story of the 500 yards wasn´t the time, but the efficiency (inclusive a awesome good 9.3 Y/PP).
Do I expect less vs SEA. You bet, I expressed that already.

* I guess you know that it was perfect field position play by NE. 500 yards normally translate into 40+ points. Give credit to Belichick that they hold DEN to only 26 b/c of big-mistake-free football.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

That's a rather large photo there my friend. Any chance you can make it smaller? I don't mind scrolling down to read, but scrolling left right..

Meanwhile, Roger Goodell showed yesterday his good side, about how they were looking at numerous rule changes with an open mind (try that in MLB, or FIFA). One is a rule I favor. Getting rid of the extra point kick because it's so automatic. This isn't the same change Belicheck was saying. Goodell's idea is that if you score a TD, it's 7 points. You can choose to go for 2, and if you get it, it's 8 points. If you fail on the conversion, you get 6. I like this idea.

I also like the idea of decreasing the goal post width. It's currently 18'. I'd like to see it down to 15', or even less. The reason why is that kickers are just too automatic. Last year we saw a record 92 FG's over 50 yards, and 83% of FG's are now good (compared to HOF kicker Jan Stenereud, who only made 65% of his kicks). Matt Prater also kicked a 64 yard kick this year. With field turf, heated grass fields, domes, stadiums that aren't domes but block a lot of wind anyway, kicking isn't what it used to be. At the very least they should do away with the flags.

The NaVorro Bowman fumble recovery play should be reviewable. Right now, it only is on scoring plays.

The NFL should also have 15 yard penalties for defenders who take out players by their knees. The Gronk play. This is currently legal. Numerous players, Tony Gonzalez being the best example, said they'd rather be hit in the head. I realize this helps the offense again, so I'm going to make some other suggestions to offset that:

Since it's such a passing league, helping the offense, I'd also like to see the NFL change rule for illegal contact., and defensive holding. I'd like to see the penalty for that either be 5 yards (but no automatic 1st down) or allow DB's to bump the receivers up to 10 yards from the line of scrimmage (now it's 5). Maybe both. Let's make the QB's throw the ball down the field.

I also want to see the officials call more illegal picks (the Wes Welker play that injured Talib). There is no doubt that every team in the NFL uses "rub" plays in crossing patterns to get guys open. Incidental contact is one thing, but when you don't avoid a defender in order to disrupt the defense is another. This is a judgment call already, and not often called when I think it should be. Especially as we just witnessed a team's best defender taken out of a game this way.

I would also like to see the playoffs re-seeded, as we discussed.

Anyone else have some ideas? Definitely open to hearing them.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Three things:
Make the knee hits illegal, as it is already with QBs.
Re-think of what´s a catch and what not. Basically go back to the (easy) old times. A catch is if the ball doesn´t hit the ground. Get rid of all those juggling-and-what-else rules.
Trim down the rule book. The bigger it got, the more un-even officiating became. It´s getting worse by the years. We are lucky not to have had some game changing calls so far (in the post season).

If you do anything on the rule if it was a illegal pick or not, it will only lead to more confusion between fans, refs and players. I guess the defenders have to live with the fact that it is a passing league. Just leave it the way it is.

 

[The Hitch]

Why do all the bookies have Broncos as favourites? Seahawks clearly the better all round team.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

As I always said, the O-Line has to be in sync...
And, years ago the guys at FBO found out that it´s more important for winning to have the OL play together with continuity than having high priced 1st round picks, but weak links in there b/c of injuries (as the old (true) saying goes "Your OL is as good as your weakest player").

So how does DEN do?
Fantastic!

The OL played in the exact same formation for 15 of 18 games, 15 of the last 16, and the last 11 consecutive games. That´s as good as it can get in an injury riddled NFL. Add in quick releasing Manning, and Denver should hold Seattles 4 man rush in check, thus the Broncos passing game should come to full blossom.

Here are the 5 guys that never get mentioned (enough):
RT Orlando Franklin, 6-6, 316, 2nd rd pick, 17 games, 17 starts (missed the game vs IND)
RG Louis Vasquez, 6-4, 330, 3rd rd, 18/18 (at RT in the IND loss; Chris Kuper filled in the RG spot at that Indy game)
C Manuel Ramirez, 6-3, 326, 4th rd, 18/18
LG Zane Beadles, 6-4, 310, 2nd rd, 18/18
LT Chris Clark, 6-5, 315, undrafted, 18/16 (replaced injured OD starter and pro bowler Ryan Clady in week 3, but PM is very pleased with his performances. The press called him "super sub". Maybe the 2nd coming of Jermon Bushrod who in 2009 replaced an injured pro bowler Jammal Brown, shut down multi millonaire Jared Allen, and since then got his "cheap" contract replaced with one that honours his great performances)

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Why do all the bookies have Broncos as favourites? Seahawks clearly the better all round team.

Good question. Foxxy gave my favorite answer, the OL. But don't be so sure SEA (Tom Cable) has not figured out that negative. SEA has started using a heavy set (extra OLineman as a TE). SEA used that so much against the 9ers it got to the point when the extra OLineman reported in the to official he didn't even have to go get his attention and verbalize it, he just pointed at the official... like, here we go again. And DEN should now be aware of that, which Carroll says is being committed to the run. But can DEN match that? I think we will find out.

But also there is the experience factor that PM has over Russell Wilson. Even if there is some truth to PM being a great regular season QB but not such a great playoff QB, experience is huge, especially when one of the QBs is a 2nd year guy. Funny, I love listening to John Clayton, who the local radio station has an interview with every day (Clayton must be a PNW resident). He says SEA has overall better talent, but he may be a little biased in saying that.

Now, there may be some other reason why the BOOKIES are all saying that. But the bookie arena is unfamiliar territory to me. BTW, I disagree with them... hehe.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

The sportsbooks set a openning line with the information they have (injury clusters, important single injuries (speak the QB), likely weather, match ups, etc). Normally they are awesome at it. After that they move the line to even out the wagers at each side, thus making sure they make their 10% profit with the comission. If they had a "perfect" opening line (and no shady guys influence it by betting trou "birds", speak fix a game), it normally doesn´t shift much. Sometimes they panic when one side has too much bets (either b/c the op line was not good or birds placed heavy bets on one side), thus risking their profits if the "wrong" teams win.
In short; the op line is set by the experts (they opened at SEA 2 ), the closing line reflects the bettors view. Some early big bets were placed on DEN, thus shifting the line to DEN 2. If there is outside influence at work, it favours DEN. Let´s have a look if there happens some unusual things in the SB...
For now I think everything is ok, since it´s unlikely to pressure players, refs (who aren´t even announced) or coaches that early.
I guess Vegas just missed with the opening line.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Found this nugget:

Last time a PM team faced a dominant No.-1 pass D with a shut down CB (Revis) in the playoffs it were the...

... NYJ 2009 pass defense;
259/501, 2704 yds, 8 TDS, 17 Int, 32 sacks, 4.61 Y/PP (1st in NFL, 25.3 % above NFL average), 58.8 rating

Now his team faces the...

... SEA 2013 pass defense;
309/524, 3050 yds, 16 TDS, 28 Int, 44 sacks, 4.85 Y/PP (1st NFL, 21.9 % above NFL average), 63.4 rating

In the end it was no contest. PM (like Brady vs PITs 2007 stellar No 1 pass D) shredded them: 26 /39, 377 yds, 3 TD, 0 Int (2 sacks).

The setting is perfect for DEN: Weather has no impact unless extreme conditions, there is no HFA for SEA, the OL is in perfect sync, the D rose to the occasion so far in the playoffs...

After all I go with my opening thoughts: If Denver doesn´t turn the ball over (too much; they might even get away with minus 1 in the turnover-"battle"), they should win.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Basically go back to the (easy) old times. A catch is if the ball doesn´t hit the ground. Get rid of all those juggling-and-what-else rules.

I don't know what rules you're talking about there.

If you do anything on the rule if it was a illegal pick or not, it will only lead to more confusion between fans, refs and players. I guess the defenders have to live with the fact that it is a passing league. Just leave it the way it is.

Then let's kill some defensive rules, and go back to the days before illegal contact and defensive holding were called. They are equally ambiguous. What I am saying is that if we keep going the way things are, soon we'll have tight ends blocking out defensive backs in order to get wide receivers open.

I also really think something needs to be done about field goals and extra points. They are stupidly automatic, and boring.

As to bookies. Didn't they have SF favored over Baltimore? And the Patriots favored (twice) over the Giants? Just sayin'.

Agree with everyone who says turnovers could change the game. There is no doubt about that. Especially if they are deep in the red zone, or late in the game. Either team could easily win/lose that way. Look at SF last week. Yes, Seattle played great, but three turnovers in the 4th quarter by Kaep alone really did the 49ers in. If that happens in the Superbowl, I don't care which team it happens to, they will lose.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I don't know what rules you're talking about there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wq2ohfX_AzI

A little older, but the most infamous one.

Then there are "catches" since a few years where the nose of the ball touches the ground (formerly incomplete), but is ruled complete (the exact opposite of the Johnson call), and so on...

But let the players speak. Worth reading, b/c he (Moss) describes it the best:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on...ciating-its-been-the-worst-that-ive-ever-seen

Then let's kill some defensive rules, and go back to the days before illegal contact and defensive holding were called. They are equally ambiguous. What I am saying is that if we keep going the way things are, soon we'll have tight ends blocking out defensive backs in order to get wide receivers open.

The story got a little big b/c Welker and Beli-Cheat and an injury was involved. As long it doesn´t get out of hands (like you say for example TE´s taking out CB´s) all is good.
Trim the rule book, get rid of some stupid rules. But defensive holding isn´t one. It´s an integral part like offensive holding.

I also really think something needs to be done about field goals and extra points. They are stupidly automatic, and boring.

Get rid of the PAT, that´s ok. Remove the flags on the goal-posts, o.k. But let the football be played like we know it. A TD isn´t automatic 7 points (so let the 2-P conversion in). Leave the width of the goal like it is since there are still misses. A different story would be if the games were like hockey since their goal can be completely covered by a big and full padded goalie. That´s absurd. We are far from such situations in football.

As to bookies. Didn't they have SF favored over Baltimore? And the Patriots favored (twice) over the Giants? Just sayin'.

Yeah, upsets happen, no doubt.

Agree with everyone who says turnovers could change the game. There is no doubt about that. Especially if they are deep in the red zone, or late in the game. Either team could easily win/lose that way. Look at SF last week. Yes, Seattle played great, but three turnovers in the 4th quarter by Kaep alone really did the 49ers in. If that happens in the Superbowl, I don't care which team it happens to, they will lose.

Agree. A 50/50 chance. For Denver, if PM becomes Mr. Hyde again, while Wilson is vulnerable for sack fumbles. OTOH, PM could overcome a -1 since I am sure DEN will move the ball better.