National Football League

[Nomad]

Re:

I'm itching for the season to start, our local football is winding down for the year and my team, after breaking through last year for it's first win in 63 years (and i was there to see it!) is looking like it will miss the finals (talk about coming back to earth with a thud).

So needless to say the start of the NFL season can't come quick enough - so many teams seem to be on the verge of turmoil with questions over QB.. so i'd love to hear people's predictions:

-Who will win the NFC, AFC and then the superbowl?
-First coach to be fired?
-Biggest fall from grace? (could be a team or a player that goes from contender to pretender)
-Which starting QB will be benched first* (no need to answer that til Week 1)


And please add to this list...

> Packers vs Patriots in the SB. I say the Pats win....again, with the GOAT at QB & one of the best HC in the history of the game.

> I think Chuck Pagano could be the first HC fired. He was on the verge of being fired last year & his job was saved in the 11th hr. You can't have the #1 overall pick from 2012 at QB and be mediocre, and not expect the HC to take the blame.

> I agree with on3m@n@rm on this: Dallas! EE is suspended for 6 games, Leary & Free are gone from the OL. Irving is suspended 4 games & Gregory is suspended for the season. That offense is going to look & feel much different for Prescott.

> Which QB will be benched first is hard to predict considering there are so many Journeyman backups who couldn't compete for the starting job in the first place. I'll predict two at some point during the season: Cutler at Miami (standby Matt Moore). And Mahomes at KC. I feel Smith would have to perform impeccably to keep the Texas gunslinger on the bench. KC traded the house away to get Mahomes with the 10th OA, and there's never been a 10th pick at QB who hasn't started the first game...or started at some point during the season. Going with history on this.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

1st QB benched: Either Tom Savage, or Brock Osweiller. If it's Brock, don't be surprised if he's back starting a couple weeks later. Even if Watson starts for Houston, he could be benched within weeks. Outside chance it's Mike Glennon (as the Bears will suck with anyone at QB), or Blake Bortles, if he continues to show zero improvement.

Coach most likely fired: John Fox. He had a winning team in Denver, and now Chicago is going to stink, again. Jay Gruden is an outside chance, as Dan Snyder is a very controlling, impatient owner. Eventually Todd Bowles in NYJ may get canned, but we all know they don't have the players. Doug Marrone could get fired late by Jacksonville if they stink, so Tom Coughlin can get his guy in there (whomever that is).

Player fall from grace: Agree on Elliot, not only the total yardage, but I don't think he'll have the same season, same with Dak. He'll still be good though, just not that good. I think Cam Newton, Sam Bradford, and Kirk Cousins may have slightly down years from last season, but not falls from grace. Too many team issues. Matt Ryan could take a step back from MVP, and still play quite well.

Superbowl: Patriots beat Packers, and go 19-0, finally. Okay, maybe not 19-0, but I'll be surprised if they win less than 14 games in the regular season. Few teams can beat them in the playoffs either, maybe the Raiders, maybe, possibly the Steelers (though it rarely happens, Belicheck and Tom seem to have their number). NFC harder to pick. Packers look darned good though. Seattle outside chance. Atlanta, TB, Arizona, NYG, even more outside chance. Look at it this way, the Patriots are better, at least on paper, this year, than they were last, mostly on defense, but everywhere. And last year they had a few key players injured. I guess Brady could finally get old, or something strange could happen, but they look like maybe the best Patriots team we have seen yet.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Ahh, Aussie rules football. I have watched some of that. Fun game to watch. Also got a laugh after seeing first time when umpires signaled a field goal (or whatever it is called) when the ball is booted through those narrow goal posts. https://halfbackflanker.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/umpie.jpg?w=500. It's the motion that gives it flair.

Good choices on Pagano and Fox by you guys.

 

[jmdirt]

Red neck round D round. Snicker. That's funny.

After the Browns marginally beat the Giants in tonight's NFL pre-season game, several thoughts come to mind:
- of the 7 QBs only one, Eli Manning, played worth a spit.
- Browns Osweiller was unimpressive but didn't do anything to lose the job. Nor do much to win it. Pressure will still be on him.
- Browns' Kiser, while many say looks the part, still looks like the would-have-been Notre Dame junior shoulda stayed at ND for his junior year by missing a wide open target for what shoulda been a TD. Overshot him with no touch on the ball. Not an uncommon rookie mistake, but one that casts some doubt on his readiness as starter.
- I thought the Browns let, or Kiser chose, to run recklessly, and he paid by getting tagged pretty hard on one play. Not smart!
- the Browns defense looks the part too and should be fun to watch this year as new DC "bountygate" Williams installs his brand of defense.
- near the goal line, Browns defense made Giants retread QB Geno Smith look rattled and nervous as the Browns MLB called off a blitz and picked off a short pass by Smith.

I love Jon Gruden & his commentary. Typically! But have to take issue with his plea (probably forced by the NFL & ESPN) for all kids to come try football and give it a shot. It's known that football participation in some areas is down due to worries over safety and head trauma. Sorry, but football is not for everybody and there's nothing wrong with kids not playing. You'd be surprised how many kids come out for high school freshman football not knowing how to tackle properly! All because of unqualified, poor coaching at younger ages. If the NFL seriously wants to increase youth participation, instead of saying "give football a shot", more needs to be done to improve youth safety by requiring youth coaches to be trained on proper safety techniques (tackling & collisions by running into), and that coaches be required to not just teach the correct technique, but also to refuse to put a player in a game until players demonstrate in practice that they have mastered it. Woa to the pitiful parent who asks their kid's coach "Why didn't you play our son?" And props to the coach who replies "I won't play Johnny until he learns to tackle safely". Better a live and healthy kid than a dead one, one with a broken neck, or a concussed kid. But the NFL is negligent to say "give it a shot" but do nothing else. Sometimes I think the NFL is a meat factory.

While I don't disagree with what you are saying, there are some towns, leagues, etc. that just don't have enough qualified coaches. I have coached youth sports for many years and very often the coaches are just the parent who was willing to volunteer their time. If there is too much time requirement for training, those parents might not do it. One year I (we, there were five of us) taught Saturday 6:00 AM clinics for volunteer coaches in a surrounding small towns. The meetings were early on Saturday because it was the only time that we could all get together before practices, games, life. Some volunteers might not be willing to do this. Now if its a paid coach that's a different story. I won't be surprised if in 10 years youth football will all be flag.

 

[leftover pie]

Re:

AhhAlso got a laugh after seeing first time when umpires signaled a field goal (or whatever it is called) when the ball is booted through those narrow goal posts. https://halfbackflanker.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/umpie.jpg?w=500. It's the motion that gives it flair.

Good choices on Pagano and Fox by you guys.

I have a friend who was an AFL goal umpire up until the end of last year, the fitness of those guys (even the ones waving the flags) is quite astounding - the field umpires could easily clock up 20km in a game.

I liked it more when they wore the white coats though, back in the day, check the flair on this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6aI32Q-jsE


Echo the sentiments on Pagano and Fox.

Chicago is just such a basket case, it's just so sad and I can't understand it.

The colts suffer from not spending to protect their best asset - Andrew Luck is way too banged up for a young QB that should really be entering his prime and enjoying some golden years.

On a general note it amazes me that these QBs when negotiating their giant contracts don't include some sort of "minimum spend on offensive line" clause in their contract, why not forgo a couple of million a year and instead spread that across the guys that keep them safe.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Red neck round D round. Snicker. That's funny.

After the Browns marginally beat the Giants in tonight's NFL pre-season game, several thoughts come to mind:
- of the 7 QBs only one, Eli Manning, played worth a spit.
- Browns Osweiller was unimpressive but didn't do anything to lose the job. Nor do much to win it. Pressure will still be on him.
- Browns' Kiser, while many say looks the part, still looks like the would-have-been Notre Dame junior shoulda stayed at ND for his junior year by missing a wide open target for what shoulda been a TD. Overshot him with no touch on the ball. Not an uncommon rookie mistake, but one that casts some doubt on his readiness as starter.
- I thought the Browns let, or Kiser chose, to run recklessly, and he paid by getting tagged pretty hard on one play. Not smart!
- the Browns defense looks the part too and should be fun to watch this year as new DC "bountygate" Williams installs his brand of defense.
- near the goal line, Browns defense made Giants retread QB Geno Smith look rattled and nervous as the Browns MLB called off a blitz and picked off a short pass by Smith.

I love Jon Gruden & his commentary. Typically! But have to take issue with his plea (probably forced by the NFL & ESPN) for all kids to come try football and give it a shot. It's known that football participation in some areas is down due to worries over safety and head trauma. Sorry, but football is not for everybody and there's nothing wrong with kids not playing. You'd be surprised how many kids come out for high school freshman football not knowing how to tackle properly! All because of unqualified, poor coaching at younger ages. If the NFL seriously wants to increase youth participation, instead of saying "give football a shot", more needs to be done to improve youth safety by requiring youth coaches to be trained on proper safety techniques (tackling & collisions by running into), and that coaches be required to not just teach the correct technique, but also to refuse to put a player in a game until players demonstrate in practice that they have mastered it. Woa to the pitiful parent who asks their kid's coach "Why didn't you play our son?" And props to the coach who replies "I won't play Johnny until he learns to tackle safely". Better a live and healthy kid than a dead one, one with a broken neck, or a concussed kid. But the NFL is negligent to say "give it a shot" but do nothing else. Sometimes I think the NFL is a meat factory.

While I don't disagree with what you are saying, there are some towns, leagues, etc. that just don't have enough qualified coaches. I have coached youth sports for many years and very often the coaches are just the parent who was willing to volunteer their time. If there is too much time requirement for training, those parents might not do it. One year I (we, there were five of us) taught Saturday 6:00 AM clinics for volunteer coaches in a surrounding small towns. The meetings were early on Saturday because it was the only time that we could all get together before practices, games, life. Some volunteers might not be willing to do this. Now if its a paid coach that's a different story. I won't be surprised if in 10 years youth football will all be flag.

I get what you are saying there. And hats off to you for volunteering to provide some instruction at a coaching clinic. I think to get to where instruction of youth coaches needs to be will not be done overnight. I'd start with proper instruction at the collegiate level, so that those players will be able to provide proper instruction when they reenter life apart from school. Those former players could then provide instruction at the high school and youth levels. We are talking about a decade or more lag time. But have to start somewhere. Funny thing muscle memory is. Take someone taught the correct way to tackle in college. By the time he graduates tackling technique is just automatic due to muscle memory (at least, that's what I call it) and repetition. Then ask a player like that to demonstrate improper technique. Some will actually have to slow down, stop, and think about it to overcome the tendency of doing it the correct way as the result of muscle memory.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re: Re:

AhhAlso got a laugh after seeing first time when umpires signaled a field goal (or whatever it is called) when the ball is booted through those narrow goal posts. https://halfbackflanker.files.wordpress.com/2008/08/umpie.jpg?w=500. It's the motion that gives it flair.

I have a friend who was an AFL goal umpire up until the end of last year, the fitness of those guys (even the ones waving the flags) is quite astounding - the field umpires could easily clock up 20km in a game.

I liked it more when they wore the white coats though, back in the day, check the flair on this guy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B6aI32Q-jsE


Echo the sentiments on Pagano and Fox.

Chicago is just such a basket case, it's just so sad and I can't understand it.

The colts suffer from not spending to protect their best asset - Andrew Luck is way too banged up for a young QB that should really be entering his prime and enjoying some golden years.

On a general note it amazes me that these QBs when negotiating their giant contracts don't include some sort of "minimum spend on offensive line" clause in their contract, why not forgo a couple of million a year and instead spread that across the guys that keep them safe.

Well not surprised since there is so much more movement to the game than NFL. More like rugby.

RE the flick: Now that's pretty animated. Dancing with the stars.

RE spreading the wealth for protection's sake: Now that would be thinking. And putting aside lust for $$$, pride, or prestige.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Roberto Aguayo's first kick for Bears is not pretty:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIaPlsMDi0I
Hope he got his degree.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I won't be surprised if in 10 years youth football will all be flag.

You know what, I'm okay with this. At least up to high school.

I don't know exactly what the solution is, but I think in 20 years or so we may even find rules so stringent that Freshman and JV high school football is some sort of low-impact version of the sport. I'd probably be okay with that too.

Now is as good of time as any to reiterate what I see is the solution to CTE.

• Rules and enforcement - Already in motion. The kickoff will be mostly gone within years, and punt rules will change. More rules on hits, and stricter enforcement by both officials on the field, and later review, will be pushed. Changing roster rules in the next CBA to allow more practice squad players will help. Also contract changes for more guaranteed money, so players are less likely to hide concussions to insure they still play, and get paid.

• Aggressive medical evaluation - Already in motion. More strict concussion protocol on the field, between games, and again, after review. Don't be surprised if in the next couple of years there are groups of people who evaluate replays of games, looking for any sign of hits to the head, or diminished play from individuals from hits, and mid-week those players forced to undergo more medical tests.

• Training of players on situational awareness, and how to better tackle, and hit. Already in motion, but slow. Players are going to have to learn to protect their head better on hits, and that of other players. This is going to take a generation to do.

• Better technology - This is slowly getting better. The new Vicis pro helmet is just one step in a long journey, but as years go by, helmets, even pads, will improve, reducing likelihood not so much of just concussions, but all the small hits that pile up over years that cause CTE.

• Finally, it will never be 100% eliminated, so there must be a high level of player awareness, so players understand what acceptable risks they are willing to take. The league is very behind here, but some players are taking this into their own hands, and moving in this direction.

 

[movingtarget]

Protest by some of the Browns players

http://p.nytimes.com/email/re?location=pMJKdIFVI6pghfX2HXfSzxRpdoyDWYNW3fjiFYfs57vVPi9/RJaS3U2CszDXjLllER483+7RglzfNP9tmLnQPiUUhWGvUyHw5bHVJF9hsljw1ynbMca8jZlUQKgJpWnCbNeLVVT3FmKXtdc5Zse6Ks8EvfRvTSKmRlcqaJDmNgaVsXJB8BSztacsD2mslemn&campaign_id=129&instance_id=101977&segment_id=112187&user_id=12d98412e3bcc0522f6cfbf4c21c54e6&regi_id=42685115

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Cowherd says OBJ is a 25 year-old going on 10. Have to agree as related to actions. Drama Queen loves the camera on him.

Browns' Kiser gets the start this week. Have to agree for several reasons:
- put Kiser vs ones. See how he does.
- Osweiller brought this on though by being so inaccurate so far.

I'm ok with all flag football for younger ages immediately. That eliminates the problem of lag time for trained former college players to enter the youth coaching ranks to make an impact by properly training youth.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ack-battles-whos-winning-which-teams-are-lost

 

[Nomad]

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap30...ack-battles-whos-winning-which-teams-are-lost

Kind of a dreadful report on some of the QB battles on the sad sack teams of the NFL. Who really cares if it's Bortles or Henne, Kizer or Osweiler, Glennon vs Trubisky. Those teams aren't going anywhere except to the outhouse. Lol. And Lynch looks like he's on the brink of becoming a bust (what's going on here Elway?). So, if Siemian can't stay healthy and gets hurt...look out Big D, you might be in the sweepstakes for a top 5 pick next year. Lol.

I like the report out of KC. The Texas gunslinger has been looking good at this early stage and can really spread the field out with that cannon. IMO, the pressure is all on Smith; he has to perform exemplary and the team has to be winning to keep Mahomes on the bench. Lets see what their record looks like and what Smith's performance is by the bye week. KC's schedule is pretty tough up to that point: NE/PHI/LAC/WSH/HOU/PIT/OAK/DEN/DAL.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

On KC's outlook, this is very true. They do have a pretty decent QB situation at least compared to the sad sack teams. Because of Smith, they don't have to rush Mahomes. BTW, Cleveland might not be a sad sack team much longer - maybe more on that later. KC can just kind of let the gas run out of Smith's tank, and when the performance of Smith drops consistently, or if KC is not in the playoff picture by December, then we may start to see Mahomes get some starts.

Oddly, I'm interested in the Bears, Browns, & Jags QB situations for several reasons:
- Bears & Browns both have rookie QB hopefuls in Trubisky & Kiser. Always interested in development of the noobs am I.
- Bears & Browns both forked out some cash for temporary QBs Glennon & Osweiller, hoping they can plug the hole in the dike. Glennon, Osweiller too, are inconsistent at best. So I'm curious to see how that works out.
- As for the Jags, this is interesting because if I remember right fellas (hep me out here cuz memory is a dangerous thing for me to rely on) the Jags are under a new HC having fired former HC Gus Bradley. So is Bortles struggling learning a new system? And if so, is that a sign he's not very cerebral?

As to Denver, let's not forget they had a top 5 ranked defense last year. With that, some actually consider (but not convincingly believe) that Denver can contend for the AFC West crown IF (big IF) they get good play out of their starting QB. Heard that one on NFL Network's radio show Moving The Chains with Alex Marvez yesterday. And they are convinced Siemian will be their QB-1.

Haha, Paxton Lynch's situation is like a dog chasing his tail, or the chicken & the egg. To get better Paxton has to play more, but to play more he has to get better. At least as far as the first half of the season goes. Except in the case if Denver is out of the playoff picture by December, then we will start hearing talk about starting Lynch so he can gets reps vs Ones. Obviously we would see Lynch start if Trevor gets injured.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

The interesting thing on Glennon is that in the past he had been quite good at quick progressions and sharp on short throws pulling the trigger. I compared him to a less mobile Alex Smith. What I've seen of him in Chicago, he isn't playing like that.

I fully agree on KC. As talented Mahomes is, he did not play in a pro set in college, and as om3@my said, I expect KC to let the tank go empty on Smith. Which may be at the end of this season. But if the Chiefs win the division, and Alex wins a playoff game (or more) then what do they do? One thing to look for this season from Smith is something we have not seen: In this pre-season all the Chief's QBs have been throwing the ball deep more. As I noted before, Alex arm is okay, average (Gruden says better, I'm not sure), but he can get the ball there. Yet, despite being one of the most accurate short passers in the league, his deep field accuracy is very average. I don't have numbers, but I'm guessing sub average. Will that change this season? Will he get in sync with his receivers enough, not hesitate on throws? That could be what defines the rest of his career.

Speaking of Smith, he had some nice things to say about Kaepernick, how it was astonishing that he wasn't playing for some team, considering how talented he was. Whatever bitterness Smith may feel about losing his job to him in SF, is apparently water under the bridge now.

As to Bortles, I'm not sure what to say, but Chris Sims says Chad Henne is outplaying him, and learning that same system as well and should be the starter at this point, even though Henne is a career backup. This begs the question, why doesn't JAX pick up Kaepernick? That seems like a solid landing spot to me. This is all going to reshuffle in a year or two anyway when Tom Coughlin starts flexing his muscle on personnel.

Cleveland actually looks decent on defense, with some rough edges, and they do have potential, maybe, in 2018 or beyond. Remember going into camp how Cody Kessler was the starter? How Kevin Hogan was still a backup? Well, Kessler has been shaky, and now the job looks like the job may be Kizer's to lose, even though he isn't ready, and tossing him to the wolves may be a mistake. But Osweiller, despite looking good early in camp, looks like he did in Houston. They can't realistically trade him, that would require eating even more cash, but can they cut him? Old Maid of the league.

Agree on Denver and the Simeon/Lynch problem. If we're here mid-season and they are 4-5 or so, look for Lynch to get, and keep the job.

I'm done with the preseason. I tried watching the Dallas-Indy game (Mrs. Alpe likes the Cowboys). Too many no-name players, and by the 4th quarter, the announcers were talking about personal stories more than the game, which really irks me when an actual play is happening on the field. But I just didn't care about who was playing at that point anyway either. I'm ready for real football.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re:

But if the Chiefs win the division, and Alex wins a playoff game (or more) then what do they do?

I hate trying to guess what management will do, but I stick my old standard: Keep playing the guy with the hotter hand, or play the best player. And forget about Sam Darnold (or other intriguing prospects) sweepstakes. Mahomes can just quietly be patient like Rogers (behind Favre), Brady (behind Bledsoe), & Garoppolo (behind Brady) did or are doing. But I'd still want to see sparks flying out Mahomes A$$ as he works hard at it.

One thing to look for this season from Smith is something we have not seen: In this pre-season all the Chief's QBs have been throwing the ball deep more. As I noted before, Alex arm is okay, average (Gruden says better, I'm not sure), but he can get the ball there. Yet, despite being one of the most accurate short passers in the league, his deep field accuracy is very average. I don't have numbers, but I'm guessing sub average. Will that change this season? Will he get in sync with his receivers enough, not hesitate on throws? That could be what defines the rest of his career.

Good observation. Maybe management wants to stretch the field more like Atlanta does, and feel Mahomes is up to the task. Thus exposing the weakness of Alex Smith, making it a potentially quicker and easier decision to bench or trade Smith in the (near?) future.

Speaking of Smith, he had some nice things to say about Kaepernick, how it was astonishing that he wasn't playing for some team, considering how talented he was. Whatever bitterness Smith may feel about losing his job to him in SF, is apparently water under the bridge now.

No question, Smith is a good guy. Moving The Chains (NFL radio) had a guest live today whose opinion was Kaep not having a job is MOSTLY a business (and to lesser degree, a performance) decision. Again I say that sort of management thinking is foolishness, especially if having Kaep as a backup on the roster makes your team stronger in case your starting QB goes down. Trouble is, teams don't want to change their system for the backup guy. Case in point: Patriots don't have to change a thing about their offense if they have to put Garoppolo in if Brady gets hurt.

I'm done with the preseason. I tried watching the Dallas-Indy game (Mrs. Alpe likes the Cowboys).

Sorry about that. For me & Seattle, I now get to assess how their offensive line does with newly acquired left tackle Matt Tobin in a trade with the Eagles (to replace Seattle LT George Fant who was lost for the season last week with a torn ACL). Tobin has practiced more at LT for the Eagles, but only played Guard during games. Time for another attempted magic trick by OLine coach Tom Cable. Sigh...

 

[Tonton]

Andy made it clear: Alex Smith is the starter. He has been hurt (concussions) and missed games the past couple of years, so Mahomes may see action if Alex goes down. Then next year, Pat Mahomes gets the job. The Chiefs swept their division last year, I see them in the playoffs again, but they seem just a notch behind the Pats and Steelers. Raiders? Their defense is going to stink...again. Baltimore, Houston? Meh.

Mahomes is really impressive so far...

The NFC is a crap-shoot as usual.

 

[leftover pie]

So what's going to happen with the Giants this year?

The Giants are blessed with what some people are calling a once-in-a-generation talent (journalists tend to throw this term around at least once a year) in OBJ - is it time for them to take the next step? Will Eli be able to take advantage and capitalise?

If it weren't for the Jets being such an annual debacle I really think we'd see more of a blowtorch on the Giants, they seem to escape it though by having the recent (but less recent every year) superbowl history and by being just a little bit better than mediocre.

 

[Nomad]

Re:

I fully agree on KC. As talented Mahomes is, he did not play in a pro set in college, and as om3@my said, I expect KC to let the tank go empty on Smith. Which may be at the end of this season. But if the Chiefs win the division, and Alex wins a playoff game (or more) then what do they do? One thing to look for this season from Smith is something we have not seen: In this pre-season all the Chief's QBs have been throwing the ball deep more. As I noted before, Alex arm is okay, average (Gruden says better, I'm not sure), but he can get the ball there. Yet, despite being one of the most accurate short passers in the league, his deep field accuracy is very average. I don't have numbers, but I'm guessing sub average. Will that change this season? Will he get in sync with his receivers enough, not hesitate on throws? That could be what defines the rest of his career.

True...Mahomes didn’t play in a "pro set," but neither did Trubisky, Watson, Goff, Winston, Mariota, Tannehill, RGIII, Bortles & Prescott. These aforementioned QBs, with the exception of Prescott, are all 1st rd, 1-10th OA picks. If teams didn't see potential, and the ability for these QBs to adjust to the pro game (excluding RGIII who's career was cut short by injuries), then why draft them with these high picks and not just defer them to the latter rounds because they're not "pro set" guys out of college? (Btw, Wilson from "pro set" Wisconsin was only a 3rd rounder, so many teams blew it on him).

Most FBS college teams are going with the high-octane spread offenses, recruiting the best dual-threat QBs coming out of HS. I don't see colleges changing anytime soon (this is why I think the college game is far more exciting than the boring, vanilla-flavored pro game with the same predictable "pro set" offenses and the same boring QB play and play selection...boring!). In fact, Bama for the first time switched to the high-octane spread after recruiting Jalen Hurt, one of the best dual-threat QBs coming out of HS in years. And furthermore, if you want to see magic and be on the edge of your seat, watch Heisman winner Lamar Jackson of Louisville! (better wear seatbelts, Lol). The kid amassed over 5000 total yds of offense and 51 TDs last year!!! (3500p/1500r/30pTDs/21rTDs). FFS, I've never seen anything like it since RGIII's gig at Baylor.

Jackson is "already" projected to be a 5th or 6th OA next year...if he comes out early. Sam Darnold, another spectacular dual-thread QB running the spread over there at football factory USC, is projected as a #1 or #2 OA (who would have thought, lol). Even McSorely is running the spread at Penn St. and has 1st rd potential. So, why are these non-pro style QBs already creating saliva in the mouths of GMs for next year's draft if they should sit the bench? IMO, if they're not ready to play in the "pro set" offense because they weren't "pro set" guys in college, then don't waste high 1st rd picks on these guys and have to pay them very high 1st rd draft pick money. Defer them to the latter rounds, pay them league minimum, and give them several years to learn the pro style offense. So, in hindsight, perhaps KC should have drafted the Texas gunslinger in the 3rd or 4th round, payed him rookie league minimum, and give him, say...maybe...4 to 5 yrs to learn under future Hall of Famer Alex Smith. Lol.

 

[movingtarget]

Colin Kaepernick

http://slate.com/sports/2017/08/colin-kaepernicks-protest-cost-him-his-job-but-started-a-movement.html

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re: Re:

I fully agree on KC. As talented Mahomes is, he did not play in a pro set in college, and as om3@my said, I expect KC to let the tank go empty on Smith. Which may be at the end of this season. But if the Chiefs win the division, and Alex wins a playoff game (or more) then what do they do? One thing to look for this season from Smith is something we have not seen: In this pre-season all the Chief's QBs have been throwing the ball deep more. As I noted before, Alex arm is okay, average (Gruden says better, I'm not sure), but he can get the ball there. Yet, despite being one of the most accurate short passers in the league, his deep field accuracy is very average. I don't have numbers, but I'm guessing sub average. Will that change this season? Will he get in sync with his receivers enough, not hesitate on throws? That could be what defines the rest of his career.

True...Mahomes didn’t play in a "pro set," but neither did Trubisky, Watson, Goff, Winston, Mariota, Tannehill, RGIII, Bortles & Prescott. These aforementioned QBs, with the exception of Prescott, are all 1st rd, 1-10th OA picks. If teams didn't see potential, and the ability for these QBs to adjust to the pro game (excluding RGIII who's career was cut short by injuries), then why draft them with these high picks and not just defer them to the latter rounds because they're not "pro set" guys out of college? (Btw, Wilson from "pro set" Wisconsin was only a 3rd rounder, so many teams blew it on him).

Draft position does not necessarily translate to success in the NFL. But, good question (above), which kind of goes with your next question:

So, why are these non-pro style QBs already creating saliva in the mouths of GMs for next year's draft if they should sit the bench?

You are right that some of these QBs are drafted too high. The reason? Desperation and fear (two elements mentioned previously in this thread). My answer is teams drafting them too high are desperate for a QB, and if they pass on a player they fear some other desperate team needing a QB will snatch them and not be available later.

So let's just look at the QBs you listed (Trubisky, Watson, Goff, Winston, Mariota, Tannehill, RGIII, Bortles, Prescott). At the time those players were drafted, every one of those teams were desperate for a QB. Except maybe Dallas who had Romo. The Redskins were so desperate they (fortunately for them) drafted two, the other being Kirk Cousins in (what?) the 7th round. It's too early in the careers of Trubisky, Watson, Goff, & Prescott to tell if they were wise picks. Tannehill, RGIII, & Bortles look like busts in the making, though too early to make that call on Tanne & Bottles. Only Winston & Mariota look the part (having successfully converted from spread to pro set), with Winston really becoming a mature leader. The point is, MOST OF THOSE QBS SHOULD NOT HAVE BEEN DRAFTED THAT HIGH and are not good examples of having adapted to the pro game. But it is a matter of supply and demand. Demand is high and supply is low.

In fact, college football has a serious shortage of QBs and offensive lineman who are pro-ready when they leave college for the NFL (notice I did not say graduate from college, b/c not all do). Reasons for that we've talked about here before, so not going to repeat all that. You did hint at part of it below though:

Most FBS college teams are going with the high-octane spread offenses, recruiting the best dual-threat QBs coming out of HS. I don't see colleges changing anytime soon.

There is a reason college FB is running more spread offenses. And it is not because it is more exciting. It is because college coaches know they only have the really good players for 3 years, maybe 4 years if red-shirted. They really good ones don't red-shirt, even some linemen. So how do you get a kid coming out of HS, who has limited knowledge, up to full speed? Use the simplest offense that is easy to teach. That is the spread offense. For every offensive play there is specific defender at risk, the QB (& team) gets the final call from the sideline using hand signals & calling cards, and the QB only has 1 or 2 reads, in particular the defender at risk. In a nutshell that is it.

Now, call it boring, but NFL defenses, with all their athletes (more so than college teams b/c only the cream of the crop make the NFL) are so much more ready to deal with spread offenses that NFL teams really need to run pro-style. NFL offenses play cat and mouse with the defense, and that in part is where NFL is more exciting - what happens pre-snap and just after snap, when all the reads by the QB are taking place. The point is, which is why ALPE mention pro-style, PLAYERS FROM COLLEGE SPREAD OFFENSES ARE NOT READY FOR THE PRO GAME. And it takes time for them to learn. Knock down Alex Smith all you want, but he is cerebral, understands how to study, how to put the offense in the best situation vs what defense is doing, and so is a good veteran for some inexperienced young gun to learn from.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

There's another thing I've mentioned before more than once, and that is GM's VP's and owners allow their emotions to get to them, and they get overly optimistic about college QB's. They see their success in college on film, in any system, and hope that can translate into the NFL. But more than that, they see a QB who has never failed in the NFL, and has not one negative memory associated with them. So one can look on paper and see an excellent backup QB for another team, that might have lost a few games, or have a small amount personal baggage, and would rather take the risk of the unknown rookie and roll the dice, than later have someone say "didn't you see the writing on the wall?" about the veteran.

Put another way, are any of the rookie QB's this year more likely to lead a team to a playoff win than Colin Kaepernick? And he's not even on a team. Now ask that question about Alex Smith.

As to that list of QB's, the jury is still out on many. I wouldn't also say Tannehill is a bust. He's just been average, drafted too high (8th in that year of QBs , behind Luck and RG3. Ahead of Weeden, Osweiller, Wilson, Foles, Cousins) and now, hurt. He was also taken ahead of Luke Kuechly and Dontari Poe. But ahead of true busts Trent Richardson and Justin Blackmon.

My point is this, it's really hard to tell how a player is going to pan out, maybe the QB spot more than any.

 

[Nomad]

Re: Re:

There is a reason college FB is running more spread offenses. And it is not because it is more exciting. It is because college coaches know they only have the really good players for 3 years, maybe 4 years if red-shirted. They really good ones don't red-shirt, even some linemen. So how do you get a kid coming out of HS, who has limited knowledge, up to full speed? Use the simplest offense that is easy to teach. That is the spread offense. For every offensive play there is specific defender at risk, the QB (& team) gets the final call from the sideline using hand signals & calling cards, and the QB only has 1 or 2 reads, in particular the defender at risk. In a nutshell that is it.

Now, call it boring, but NFL defenses, with all their athletes (more so than college teams b/c only the cream of the crop make the NFL) are so much more ready to deal with spread offenses that NFL teams really need to run pro-style. NFL offenses play cat and mouse with the defense, and that in part is where NFL is more exciting - what happens pre-snap and just after snap, when all the reads by the QB are taking place. The point is, which is why ALPE mention pro-style, PLAYERS FROM COLLEGE SPREAD OFFENSES ARE NOT READY FOR THE PRO GAME. And it takes time for them to learn. Knock down Alex Smith all you want, but he is cerebral, understands how to study, how to put the offense in the best situation vs what defense is doing, and so is a good veteran for some inexperienced young gun to learn from.

That's plain BS! (pretentious much?). I didn't say the sole reason most colleges run spread is because it's more exciting (though it is far more exciting than the boring pro game). The reason is because, FFS, many high schools are running it with athletes playing QB never seen before in terms of size, speed, arm strength & athleticism. Right now there are tons of dual-threat QBs playing in high schools all over the nation (check Texas for starters). My local HS that I freaking played at 39 yrs ago that historically ran the I-form now even runs spread! Many of these dual-threats with good size who are posting big numbers have already verbally committed.

I alluded to Jalen Hurts that you don't seem to understand. He was a 4-star recruit with impressive size, speed, arm strength and mind-blowing stats! (3500p/1700r). He was heavily recruited by almost everyone as a dual-threat. Newsflash: Bama transitioned to the spread last year BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT JALEN HURTS RAN IN HS! Some of these kids are playing in spread as early as the middle-school level. Perhaps, these kids would have been regulated to other skill positions 20 or so years ago, utilizing their size & speed at positions other than QB. But what's happened now is these kids have the arm strength & accuracy needed in the passing game and can play the position with the added dimension of running due to their athleticism (i.e., they can beat you with their arm or feet).

On Smith: What's with all Kool-aid you're drinking on this cat? 2-4 postseason record and NO Super Bowl appearances. He's had some great defenses & some good offensive weapons there at KC and he can't get the team past the 1st rd of the playoffs? (a 12-4 season & division title down the toilet last year! Lol). And cerebral? Big deal...so is Fitzgerald and he's now a backup. Lol. But since you're the resident expert on all matters "NFL" (?), I'll ask you this point blank: Why the hell did KC trade the house away to pick the Texas gunslinger with the *10th OA* to sit the bench??? Additionally, there are currently 7 active SB winning QBs still playing (Brady, Brees, Manning, Wilson, Flacco, Wilson & Big Ben). Some of these guys are getting up there in age and are developing chronic injuries, so, why then haven't these teams drafted any QBs in the first round, like KC and others have?

 

[jmdirt]

If the preseason game tonight is the tryout, Smith got the job. KC's line sucked in the second half, but the kid didn't look too good.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re:

So what's going to happen with the Giants this year?

The Giants are blessed with what some people are calling a once-in-a-generation talent (journalists tend to throw this term around at least once a year) in OBJ - is it time for them to take the next step? Will Eli be able to take advantage and capitalise?

If it weren't for the Jets being such an annual debacle I really think we'd see more of a blowtorch on the Giants, they seem to escape it though by having the recent (but less recent every year) superbowl history and by being just a little bit better than mediocre.

Dallas might fall off a bit, so Giants should contend for the division.