National Football League

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re:

That was a pretty good Thursday night game. Wilson needs to be more consistent, the secondary needs to tighten up, and now that the O line is blocking better they need to hold still for one more second, but SEA could make a nice run to the end.

Agreed. Wilson was OFF last night, but came through in the 4th quarter. OL is beginning to be a bright spot, which will help w/that consistency.

Then Rogers, even he was inconsistent last night tossing errant passes in front his WR or in the turf on out routes to the flat. Former teammate Greg Jennings today said Rogers by far prefers to throw that ball downfield, going for the home run. Ask Rogers to dink and dunk underneath the coverage, and he can't do it long. Greg say as a result Rogers is not as practiced nor effective on routes to the flat.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Recall those accusations from some former Seahawk players that the team has “lost their way”. Well, try this for a transformation:

This is Russell Wilson's team. There's no debate about that now. Pick your ass-kicker from the best six-year run in team history, and odds are he is long gone: Marshawn Lynch, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Cliff Avril, Michael Bennett, Bruce Irvin. What made the LOB horrifying—a blend of belligerence and violence unmatched in its era—has been virtually fumigated from the building. What's left is a quarterback who ex-teammates blame for the team's demise.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2806038-i-dont-fear-it-the-seahawks-are-russell-wilsons-team-but-is-he-enough

Leadership, to him, today, is a relentless desire to "serve." To constantly pepper his younger teammates with nuggets of information throughout the day. To sit down with everyone he can, one-on-one, and have a genuine conversation about their life, their upbringing. He's been trying to learn as much as possible about everyone he can. He knows he can't get to everyone. "But," Wilson adds, "I do think you can get to the one person that you're with."

And he believes the culture here has "grown."

Linebacker Shaquem Griffin wasn't around last year, but his twin brother, Shaquill, was, and everyone has been talking about this transformation.

"It changed for the better," Griffin says. "As in everybody's together. As in everybody's communicating with each other. It's not an uptight thing anymore. I think that's very important, to have guys coming to practice who enjoy being here."

Gelling as one unit has been as simple as getting guys together for Ping-Pong or the wide receivers group going out for a game of laser tag. Or cooking together. Or playing video games. Or going go-karting together, as Griffin and others have discussed.

Wilson, Griffin adds, is at the heart of it all. And that has given him an insight into his team few players in the league possess.

Backup Brett Hundley noticed this immediately. Like the quarterback he used to back up in Green Bay, Wilson is uber-demanding. But like Aaron Rodgers, Wilson also has mastered the art of being demanding. He knows which players he can scream at mid-practice and which ones he must address behind the scenes. When people think of the mental side of the position, Hundley explains, they think of X's and O's. Not this.

 

[jmdirt]

As usual I'm waiting for the Alpe report, but:
CAR has to watch out for the trap vs DET They got trapped!
HOU vs WASH could be a good one Not bad (other than Smith's leg)
The nightcap also has good potential not a good game even if the final score looks OK
DAL ATL was a good watch
EDIT

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Good post on Wilson. Nice to see Merckx posting, and his thoughts on QB numbers.

I think it's fairly well known that Aaron Rodgers and Mike McCarthy get along, but have differing views on how to push the ball down the field. What's interesting is that the Packers have several young players, David Bakhtiari is entering his prime, and Rodgers just signed a contract that will probably keep him in GB until his career ends, one that leaves wiggle room for cap space in the next couple years. So, will they work it out? Or will McCarthy go? The Packers have never been a team to make quick, rash decisions.

CIN@BAL - I don't trust either team, but the Ravens defense should hold. Marvin Lewis has to be on his way out in Cincy. Hiring Hug Jackson on the staff won't help.
DAL@ATL - Last week's loss to the Browns showed Cleveland was solid, but the Falcons must win at home here, and will.
TB@NYG - Giants are actually favored I think, and I realize TB got blown out last week and have lots of injuries on defense, but they still put up insane yards, and Y/PP. NY's win, and Eli's "big game" were an anomaly, as they (barely) beat the 49ers.
PIT@JAX - Jags freefall continues. Pittsburgh is a well coached team playing very well. Remember early in the year when some were questioning Mike Tomlin? Five wins in a row later... Jags would need over 150 yards on the ground to have a chance to win this.
HOU@WAS- Texans have won six in a row, but if you look at who they beat, it's less impressive (Den, Mia, Jax, Buf, Dal, Ind). Before that they lost to the Giants. Washington's defense is stout, and their losses were often due to injuries, mostly in the receiving corps. Crowder and Richardson are still out.
TEN@IND Colts, especially Luck, playing well of late. While the Titans are solid across the board, and beat (a beat up) Patriots last week easily, I went with the home team.
CAR@DET - This does have the makings of a trap game, and I think it will be close. A mistake or turnover could be the difference.
DEN@LAC Chargers were workman like in the last two weeks, if not impressive, but Denver is almost on a slide. Joey Bosa may finally play for LA, though they don't really need him this game.
OAK@ARI - As bad as the Cardinals are...
PHI@NO This won't be last year's NFC Championship that wasn't, but it too looks like a potential trap. But the Eagles are just way too banged up on defense, and the Saints offense a juggernaut.
MIN@CHI Two solid teams fighting for first place. Even if the offense and Trubiski don't light it up every game, Chicago's defense is at near full strength, and I'll take them at home here.

KC@LAR - I picture an exciting, high scoring game, and the Rams are coming off a couple battles and will be hardened. The Chiefs have just been winning as asked. But I have a feeling that the Chiefs offense will just move the ball more, and have more big strike plays that will make the difference when it comes to points. Rams have given up an average of 31 points the last 3 weeks. The Chiefs defense is as healthy, and playing as well as they have in over two years.

 

[Nomad]

Horrific leg injury to Alex Smith; severly fractured tibia & fibula. Smith’s leg injury came 33 years to the day after Theismann’s horrific leg injury.

https://slate.com/culture/2018/11/alex-smith-joe-theismann-leg-break.html

Can you believe the injuries this year? Just to QBs alone it's been unreal: Mariota went down today, Tannehill & Allen still out, Flacco injured (btw, nice job by Lamar Jackson though 27 rushes isn't what you want your QB doing regulary in the NFL).

Kudos to the Broncos for their impressive upset of the favored Chargers! Nice game-winning drive by Keenum with little time left and no TOs. I know you didn't see this coming Alpe.

 

[Koronin]

Horrific leg injury to Alex Smith; severly fractured tibia & fibula. Smith’s leg injury came 33 years to the day after Theismann’s horrific leg injury.

https://slate.com/culture/2018/11/alex-smith-joe-theismann-leg-break.html

Can you believe the injuries this year? Just to QBs alone it's been unreal: Mariota went down today, Tannehill & Allen still out, Flacco injured (btw, nice job by Lamar Jackson though 27 rushes isn't what you want your QB doing regulary in the NFL).

Kudos to the Broncos for their impressive upset of the favored Chargers! Nice game-winning drive by Keenum with little time left and no TOs. I know you didn't see this coming Alpe.

Today was the anniversary of Joe Theismann's leg injury. Overall a bad day for QB's getting hurt.

 

[BullsFan22]

Not sure if the Bears have taken control of the NFC north just yet, but they are looking pretty solid right now at 7-3. I like the direction that team is heading with a good, young quarterback, solid receivers and a VERY good defense led by Khalil Mack, they can contend for years to come.

The win by the Bears just muddies the NFC playoff picture. I mean, it would have been just as muddy had they lost, it would have tightened things up anyway, but as far as the wildcard is concerned, the Seahawks have made up ground on virtually everyone. All the teams that I thought they'd be fighting for a 5/6 seed have lost. The next two games vs the Panthers and Vikings are HUGE. The Packers game was big, but now we'll see if they can back it up against two more playoff seeking teams, one on the road the other at home. The Panthers didn't look great against the Lions. That was built as a trap game and it certainly turned out that way. The NFC east is going to be really tight. Really sad to see Smith end his season (maybe even career) like that. The Redskins, I thought, had a real good shot to win the division. They still can, but it's now much, much harder. The Eagles, even the Giants, have a shot.

The Chiefs vs Rams is going to be a good one.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I did not see the Chargers losing like that.

The way the Saints blew out the Eagles was something. Brees was just amazing how accurate his throws were. But that entire team is just clicking.

The Jaguars loss to the Steelers was painful. First, multiple conservative calls and plays late sealed their fate as they played almost in desperation of holding on, not winning. But Blake Bortles was just terrible. 10/18 for 104 yards, and lucky two passes weren't picked. He either wouldn't, or couldn't throw the ball down the field, or was just told not to, and couldn't get out of the way or move within the pocket and was too often sacked. Jags announced today they are sticking with him, which was met with harsh criticism by fans. But the way the plays were called, I have to wonder if the coaching staff really do trust him (why would they?)

That Alex Smith injury was indeed horrifying.

 

[Koronin]

So Washington has signed Sanchez as their backup for the rest of the season.

Glad to hear that Joe Theismann has reached out to Alex Smith. Those two injuries are very similar.

 

[jmdirt]

I don't even know what to say about the Monday night game...

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re:

I don't even know what to say about the Monday night game...

Two teams that don't have very good defenses (surprisingly for Rams with all the cash laid out - not very good bang for the buck) going against very potent offenses was a recipe for a high scoring game. I never thought it would be that high. There were a total of 7 punts between the 2 teams, so some defense was played to go with 13 penalties for over 100 yards for the Chiefs. But there was overall such a lack of defense that the offenses had relatively little resistance. So in spite of the massive scoring, to me the game was bordering on boring. Everyone is saying what a great game it was, but I didn't see it quite that way. I like to see more of a challenge, or a struggle. Thats just me.

 

[Merckx index]

Re: Re:

Two teams that don't have very good defenses (surprisingly for Rams with all the cash laid out - not very good bang for the buck) going against very potent offenses was a recipe for a high scoring game. I never thought it would be that high. There were a total of 7 punts between the 2 teams, so some defense was played to go with 13 penalties for over 100 yards for the Chiefs. But there was overall such a lack of defense that the offenses had relatively little resistance. So in spite of the massive scoring, to me the game was bordering on boring. Everyone is saying what a great game it was, but I didn't see it quite that way. I like to see more of a challenge, or a struggle. Thats just me.

The total offense in that game was about 1000 yards. That’s a lot, but nowhere near a record. There were not only seven punts, but seven turnovers, five of them by Mahomes (I’m not sure, but I’m guessing he’s the first QB in history to have 6 TD passes and five TO in the same game), so defense was not completely absent.

A major reason why the scoring was so high was that neither team ran the ball much (< 100 yards for both), despite having great RBs. Passing generally leads to more scoring, not only because of the larger gains possible, but because the clock is stopped after every incompletion. As I pointed out before, under new rules, passing is favored—that’s why teams do more of it. So much of the high scoring is not a reflection of poor defense, but of the way the game is now set up.

I think people tend to forget that football is a game, which means that the rules can be tweaked to have as much or as little scoring as one wants. QBs are throwing for 5000 yards and 50 TDs in a season now not because they’re better than QBs of earlier eras, nor because defense is poorer, but because the game is played differently now. Under the rules of twenty or thirty years ago, these same teams would have been scoring in the thirties, or possibly even the twenties (because they would have rushed more, chewing up the clock), and there would be a lot fewer complaints about defense.

These things tend to go in cycles. In a low offense era, fans start to complain that there isn't enough action, and the rules are changed to favor the offense. Then scoring happens so often that fans start to complain that it's boring, so the rules are changed to favor defense. In any form of entertainment, when spectators complain enough, the rules are changed. Baseball has gone through such a cycle, e.g., just in this century. Of course, by definition, most games in any sport can't be exciting or dramatic, let alone epic, but I'm not sure how many fans even understand that.

One of the underreported stories of the season is the comeback of Andrew Luck. A few months ago, people were speculating that his NFL career might be over. And now? He’s thrown more TD passes than anyone except Mahomes, and is third in the AFC in QB rating, behind only Mahomes and Rivers.

He’s always had the potential to be the best QB of his generation. The difference now is that he’s finally getting protection (and yes, the new rules help in that regard, but his OL is also better), which means more accurate passes and fewer interceptions. He’s been sacked only ten times this season. The only qualified QB who has been taken down fewer times is Brees, with nine. To put his protection in perspective, Jimmy Garappolo—remember him?—was sacked thirteen times in his brief start to the season.

After a 1-5 start, Indy has won four in a row, and is basically tied with a bunch of other teams for the second WC position. They’ve taken advantage of some really weak teams, like the Bills and the Raiders, but their remaining schedule is quite soft—only Houston has a winning record—so they have a serious shot at the postseason. If they get that far, they could wreak some havoc against favored teams. They’re currently basically tied with the Steelers for the second most points scored in the AFC, a tick under 30 per game, trailing only KC, and only two NFC teams, the Saints and the Rams, have scored more. With a QB like Luck, their offense has to concern any team they might meet in the postseason.

 

[movingtarget]

Re: Re:

I don't even know what to say about the Monday night game...

Two teams that don't have very good defenses (surprisingly for Rams with all the cash laid out - not very good bang for the buck) going against very potent offenses was a recipe for a high scoring game. I never thought it would be that high. There were a total of 7 punts between the 2 teams, so some defense was played to go with 13 penalties for over 100 yards for the Chiefs. But there was overall such a lack of defense that the offenses had relatively little resistance. So in spite of the massive scoring, to me the game was bordering on boring. Everyone is saying what a great game it was, but I didn't see it quite that way. I like to see more of a challenge, or a struggle. Thats just me.

Rule changes in the NFL and NBA mean that little by little, defense takes a backseat. Super Bowl will probably be the same this year, looking at some of the recent scores. The last two SB's already indicated as much.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Good posts by both of you. I agree with Onm@my about the game last night bordering on boring. It wasn't, because it was close, but after a while it was almost painful to see such porous defense, especially in the secondary of both teams. I'm also starting to think there's something wrong with the way the Rams defense is coached, be that Sean McVey, Wade Phillips or someone else. It's as if teams have figured out if they can keep Arnold in check (the Chiefs still couldn't), receivers will get open, and the LB and secondary are poor at tackling. This has happened to them a few weeks in a row now. Granted, they have played against some excellent QBs (Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, Mahomes) but I think there's more to it than that. Never the less, the Rams still won the game, and their offense looked stellar.

I commented on Andrew Luck before, but props to Merckx for that analysis. I have to wonder here, on the flip side of my comment on the Rams, if Frank Reich has something to do with Luck's increasing success as well. I think we need to be cautious though before talking about the Colts winning streak. They beat the Jets, Bills, Raiders, Jaguars, and Titans, in a game with Mariota hurt. Granted this last win was their best, winning by four TDs. Having said all that, their remaining schedule is, MIA, @JAX, @HOU, DAL, NYG, TEN. So it's possible they go something like 9-7 or maybe 10-6 and end up a wildcard, or...dare I say, somehow beat the Texans and win the division? If you look at the standings now, there is a cluster of teams at 5-5 fighting for the WC, and the Colts are one of them.

The Buccaneers have named James Winston their starting QB next week, after Fitzpatrick again couldn't get the team in the end zone. I'd have to say this is Winston's last chance to keep his job. He not only has to play fairly well the rest of the season, curbing his mistakes, but also keep his nose clean, which I'm not sure he can do. The team in the past said they would move on without him if they had to.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re:

Good posts by both of you. I agree with Onm@my about the game last night bordering on boring. It wasn't, because it was close, but after a while it was almost painful to see such porous defense, especially in the secondary of both teams. I'm also starting to think there's something wrong with the way the Rams defense is coached, be that Sean McVey, Wade Phillips or someone else. It's as if teams have figured out if they can keep Arnold in check (the Chiefs still couldn't), receivers will get open, and the LB and secondary are poor at tackling. This has happened to them a few weeks in a row now. Granted, they have played against some excellent QBs (Wilson, Rodgers, Brees, Mahomes) but I think there's more to it than that. Never the less, the Rams still won the game, and their offense looked stellar.

I commented on Andrew Luck before, but props to Merckx for that analysis. I have to wonder here, on the flip side of my comment on the Rams, if Frank Reich has something to do with Luck's increasing success as well. I think we need to be cautious though before talking about the Colts winning streak. They beat the Jets, Bills, Raiders, Jaguars, and Titans, in a game with Mariota hurt. Granted this last win was their best, winning by four TDs. Having said all that, their remaining schedule is, MIA, @JAX, @HOU, DAL, NYG, TEN. So it's possible they go something like 9-7 or maybe 10-6 and end up a wildcard, or...dare I say, somehow beat the Texans and win the division? If you look at the standings now, there is a cluster of teams at 5-5 fighting for the WC, and the Colts are one of them.

The Buccaneers have named James Winston their starting QB next week, after Fitzpatrick again couldn't get the team in the end zone. I'd have to say this is Winston's last chance to keep his job. He not only has to play fairly well the rest of the season, curbing his mistakes, but also keep his nose clean, which I'm not sure he can do. The team in the past said they would move on without him if they had to.

First, nice commentary by all. As for what's wrong with the Rams defense, let me tell analyst Trent Dilfer's pre-game view. Trent feels the Rams are not playing gap responsible defense in the trenches, and instead, players are doing their own thing. In other words, they are not playing as a unit, particularly the D-Line and LBs. Those words are supported by the game two weeks ago when Seattle had good success gashing the Rams defense by running right at the interior D-Line of the Rams, Donald and Suh. Seattle lost the game 36-31, but rushed for 273 yards that day. 273! Not totally sure what happened in the game last night. But lack of gap responsibility is a lack of discipline, and the responsibility for that partly or ultimately falls on the coaches heads (my guess would be mostly DC Wade Phillips, and somewhat HC McVey). Players don't get off the hook either and are partly to blame.

EDIT: In my haste, I forgot to mention something else Dilfer said about the Rams defense: paraphrasing, if the Rams defense stubbornly continues play man pass coverage Mahomes will shred them. But if the Rams adapt and play zone like cover-2, cover-4, etc. then the Chiefs will have a harder time in the passing game.

Interesting the Rams pass defense is ranked #26 in the NFL, and the Chiefs #32. http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/passing/position/defense

Alpe communicated/translated well my frustration with the game. I said it borderlined on boring. Alpe's translation of "painful to see such porous defense" hit it on the nail head.

 

[jmdirt]

I dislike 7 to 3, 10 to 6 punt fests, but 50+ to 50+ stretches it a bit the other way for me. I wouldn't use the word boring though. With two really good QBs, several really fast WRs, and rules that tie the D (especially DBs in this case), that's what we get. I expected both teams to get close to if not in the 40s, but 54 to 51...I didn't see that coming.

I'm glad that Luck has been able to recover and play well.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I'm with you. I don't like punt fests etc either. Somewhere in the middle is best when it comes to scoring.

But scoring is the end result. Part of what gripes me is not just about scoring (e.g. either too much or too little). I'm not a fan of the imbalance in the rules. Right now I think there is an imbalance favoring offense, which in turn drives up scoring when defenses are at the mercy of the rules and have a harder time stopping offensive drives. Like scoring, I prefer a set of rules that is a good balance between favoring offense vs defense. Trying to find that balance is the trick, and getting there may be a bit like a pendulum. Some examples we've already talked about, such as getting rid of the spot foul in defensive pass interference. I also think offensive PI is not called often enough - I see too many instances of WRs getting separation by pushing off. If they are going to flag a defender for preventing separation, then they ought to make it fair and call offensive PI when a receiver interferes with a defender (e.g. pushing off) to gain separation. The downside is, we don't want to see flag fests either. But in order to get to the point where rules are fair, players have to ADAPT (hehe: just like Clay Mathews whining about not being able to fall with his full body weight on QBs anymore) to changes in the rules, and there will be a learning curve when more flags will get thrown until the players finally adapt most of the time.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

CHI@DET- Bears have looked good for weeks on end now, even in losing they look decent. Their defense is arguably the best in the league, and Trubisky improving into a solid QB all the time. The Lions aren't bad, this is a division game in Detroit, but I'll still pick the Bears. They beat Detroit two weeks ago 34-22.
WAS@DAL Neither team is that consistent, but Dallas is at home, and a win puts them tied for first. McCoy is one of the better backups in the NFL, so that's good for Washington. But if they win, their defense will prevail.
ATL@NO The Falcons pass defense is poor, and their secondary is completely banged up or on IR. The Saints are a well coached, well oiled machine with a great running attack, and an HOF QB who is not only playing like he's in his prime, but as I've said before, like having a coach on the field. Division games are often close, but I just don't see the Falcons winning this game.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I like those picks. Those are probably the right picks, but I will go out on a limb and pick Washington.

Thank you, back at you, & have a happy day all.

 

[jmdirt]

What a great day! Walk, football, ride, football, food, beer, football, beer!
CHI looked OK especially since MT wasn't playing, but DET didn't look too great so...a win is a win.
DAL-WASH was entertaining. DP just isn't the guy to take the team to a SB (unless he develops his passing game/consistency). EDIT: If he can get locked in with Cooper more now that will help.
NOLA-ATL had spots of entertaining, but ATL left so many points on the field that it became frustrating to watch.

 

[Merckx index]

In this year of the high-scoring juggernauts, guess which team leads the NFL in total offense (yards/game)? KC, right? Nope. The Saints? Nope. The Rams? No. Then it must be the Steelers? No. Give up? It’s Tampa Bay!

That's right, a team with one of the worst records in the NFL is not only leading the league in yards gained, but is on a pace for 6000 yards passing alone, which would annihilate the record set by Manning and the Broncos in 2013 (5444). They’re also on a pace for more than 7500 yards total, which would break the record set by the Saints in 2011.

To make this even weirder, TB doesn't even have a clear no. 1 at QB. Ryan Fitzpatrick, not Mahomes, leads the NFL in yards per attempt. The reason he doesn’t have more passing yards than Mahomes—and isn’t on a pace to smash Manning’s single season record for passing yards by a QB--is because he’s shared playing time with Winston. They have even played in the same games together, which means that Fitzpatrick is listed as playing in more games than he’s actually played the whole time, which brings down his yards/G average. But per pass attempt, and probably per minute played, he’s actually thrown for more yards than Mahomes.

If TB is so good offensively, why does it have a losing record? Well, they’ve given up nearly 400 yards per game, though that’s still less than KC, which has given up more than 400 yards per game. Think about that. TB has averaged almost 80 yards per game more on offense than they’ve given up on defense. KC has averaged about 30 yards per game more on offense than they’ve given up on defense. By that measure, TB has actually performed better at the line of scrimmage than KC, yet KC is 9-2 and TB is 3-7. Yards gained and given up aren’t everything—TB has given up more points than it has scored, in fact is last in the NFL in points allowed--but still, that is one of those statistical anomalies that takes you by surprise. A team that has a chance to go into the offensive record books will finish nowhere near the playoffs.

 

[Nomad]

"If TB is so good offensively, why does it have a losing record?"

Because they're dead last in NFL "team take-aways, give-aways" statistics with a pathetic -23! Offensively, they've thrown 23 picks and fumbled 6 times with a number of these turnovers in the red zone. Sadly, their defense has only 1 INT...and recovered only 5 fumbles through already 10 games! Contrast that with KC at a +4 (10/3 offensively - 11/6 defensively).

http://www.espn.com/nfl/statistics/team/_/stat/givetake

TB's red zone offense is #17 @ 57.50%, while KC is #6 @ 71.43%

https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-pct

As you alluded to points for/against is another big one tied in to the number of turnovers and lack of scoring efficiency. TB is a poor -62 (267/329) while KC is a whopping +110 (404/294), second only to NO.

It's simply TB turns the ball over way too much and can't score from the red zone while KC can get in the end zone much more efficiently.

 

[jmdirt]

The only stat that matters is points scored and points allowed each game.
A team can have six drives of 70 yards and end up with zero (maybe 3 or 6) points to show for it. If you look at the stats and see 420 to 280 yards, you figure they won, but they didn't because the other team had a pick six, and a short 20 yard drive after a fumble. 24-3.

Look at last night, Ryan had 200 more yards than Brees, but who won? Total offense was closer than that though because ATL had virtually no run game while NOLA ran all over.

KC had more yards (about 100 I think) than LAR...

EDIT: Merkx, I still enjoyed your post!

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Tampa may be the opposite of the 1977 Atlanta Falcons, who had one of the most dominating defenses in NFL history, while going...7-7.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0xUwj9QOm1I

Agree the only stat that means anything is wins. Or points scored vs. points allowed. But it can be fun to use the others for comparisons, and predictions.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

CLE@CIN - I don't see a lot of "revenge" here, just a better team right now on a roll. Bengals also really banged up.
SF@TB of course Garrapolo is out, but the 49ers are playing okay and not missing many players, while Tampa is banged up, and a mess of a team, especially on defense, but with a QB issue as well. Still, they are at home here.
JAX@BUF Josh Allen back, I expect a full defensive battle here.
OAK@BAL - Flacco still out. As sketchy and uneven the Ravens are, they win this at home against the NFL's worst.
SEA@CAR Should be a tough, close game. Went with the home team.
NE@NJY - While a division game in NY, the Pats are rested, Darnold is out, and Jets sort of rebuilding.
NYG@PHI Giants are arguably the healthiest team in the league right now, while the Eagles secondary are completely banged up. Still, Eagles are still in the hunt, and at home, and the Giants pretty much suck.
ARI@LAC After last week's surprise loss, the Chargers bounce back. Bosa may actually be fully back.
MIA@IND Tannehill will probably play, but Fins have no less than 19 guys on the injury report. Colts playing better, and at home.
PIT@DEN Both teams are hard to really gauge. The Steelers had two teams completely collapse against them (Cincy and Jax), and should have lost in week 1 at Cleveland as well. Denver is like those teams, very solid on defense, sketchy on offense. Brandon Marshall still out for Broncos.
GB@MIN Rodgers had maybe his worst week since about week 3 when he was hurt, but still mostly looked like himself last week. He has a long history of playing well against the Vikings, which all means he could have a very good game, as both teams are in the wild card hunt. Still, Minnesota is a more solid team across the board, and at home.

TEN@TEX Mariota back to full participation in practice. I also think Houston isn't quite as good as their win streak, but they are playing well, they are winning, and they are at home.

Official injury reports:

http://www.nfl.com/injuries

Playoff picture.

http://www.nfl.com/playoffs/playoff-picture

Finally, ESPN's Playoff Machine, where you predict each week's games, and they show you the playoff seedings and matchups.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

I tried uploading a jpeg showing my guesses, but even though the file was pretty small (>400px, 50k) the system wouldn't let me.