National Football League

[on3m@n@rmy]

Re: Re:

The 2 point conversion is "about a 50:50 play", I think its a little better than that actually but still.

It was 48% in the NFL this past season.

Speaking of Seattle, seriously? A petition among Hawk fans to ban Newton?

Ban Cam Newton From Century link field. He is one of the most unsportsmanlike quarterbacks in the NFL and deserves to be banned from Century Link Field. He dislikes Washington as a whole anyways, so why not move to make this possible.

http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/01/seahawks-fans-create-petition-to-ban-cam-newton-from-playing-in-seattle

Nice calibrated thumbs up guestimate there Catwhoorg. We should call you Mr. Spock. Validated by MI, who is Data. Or, maybe those aliases should be interchangeable for you two.
-----------
As a Seattle fan I am embarrassed. Totally. I heard that moronic Seattle fan's (named Andrew) long letter proposing a Cam ban as reported last week on ESPN M&M in the Morning. Andy fanboy was upset about Cam ripping down a SEA fan's 12s flag. Upset over that? He's done the same to other visiting fans. He's having fun, not dissing anyone. UNLESS OFC the moronic visitor started it off by dissing Cam in some way.

If it was me, I'd ask Cam to sign the thing as long as he handed it back. I'd even give him the pen. I actually like Cam and his celebrations, and don't hold it against him or Panthers when it's my team out there. It's a frigging game. Somebody's got to win, and somebody's got to lose. Might as well be happy for the winning team and their fans, who get to experience something like the SB.

If Cam dislikes Washingtonians it's because of idiot fans that do stupid stuff like that. I'm positive that SEA fan had a loooooong, miserable, deserved plane trip home. Probably stewing over what and how to write that ban proposal. Probably took years off his life thinking about it. Freak-hog Moron! Cam ban? I say ban fan! Same to anyone who'd sign a petition like that.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

So worked up after that I had to make this a separate post. So. Heard former Seattle Seahawk Center Robbie Tobeck on 710 ESPN Seattle (Danny, Dave & Moore show) talk about the SEA offensive line: His remarks were unsurprisingly harsh. Here's a few off the top of the ***:
- all 5 offensive linemen are expendable
- only 1 is a keeper, but not because of production - because it was his rookie year and is deserving of more time to develop
- OFC that implies LT Okung is not the keeper (and rookie left guard Britt is)
- the OL has no leadership, and nobody on the line is taking ownership (in Tobeck's day if there were problems they all stayed late after practice to fix it)
- In Tobeck's career, he said there was only one player he ever saw have a perfect game. Walter Jones. Very hard to do. But even Walter would stay late on his own while everyone else left the field.

So, on the heels of that I also heard that Patriots fired their offensive line coach yesterday. I am envious.

 

[52520Andrew]

People underestimate the importance of the O-line all the time. I learned my lesson in 2013 with the Ravens when Gino Gradkowski graded as the worst Center in the league and A.Q. Shipley just couldn't handle guard as well as Oher falling off a cliff at RT compared to his play in the 2012 playoff run. Gary Kubiak really turned that group around the next year although there were a lot of new faces like Zuttah, Wagner, and K.O. coming back from injury.

Everything starts with the line, opens holes for the running game and gives the QB time to find people in the passing game. I will also say that contrary to current beliefs, Center is the most important position on the line. For starters, interior pressure is far more disruptive than edge pressure. Secondly, the Center is usually the one that makes calls on the line to shift the protection based on what look the defense gives. And that doesn't even take into account that the Center snaps the ball on every offensive play.

 

[Pricey_sky]

That Ban-Cam petition from the Hawks is hilarious. I'm sure it's just another OTT reaction after they couldn't get the job done against Cam 10 days ago.
Most Hawks fans were convinced Panthers would choke on the big stage so that first half must have hurt. Of course added to that Cam went down the field twice at thier place in the final minutes to complete a superb comeback win earlier in the season.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Re:

People underestimate the importance of the O-line all the time.

Agree with all of you on this. Same with the DL. One could argue the real crux of the game is between the OL, and the DL, or front five plus run blocking and pass protection, versus the front 7. Howie Long has said this, if you want to really learn the game, sit in the end zone about halfway up, and just watch the line play all game. Pat Kirwin, who is an NFL analyst, has a book and site dedicated to analyzing football called Take Your Eye Off the Ball. One of the key things he has you watch? The lines.

http://www.patkirwan.com/

I have to agree with Robbie Tobeck on Seattle's OL. Even Okung, who made the Pro Bowl in 2012, seems to be hurt too much, or headed to an early retirement. He's akin to New England's Sebastian Vollmer. It's hard to dislike the guy for all he's done, but he's not the player he once was. I know Unger was going to be a contract/cap issue, and trading him for Graham was too easy to pass up, but he was the anchor of that line. Hawks also gave up a #1 draft in that trade. One thing about Seattle to know though, while they're likely to lose Kerse, next season they will get both Graham, and Paul Richardson back. Plus they'll still have Baldwin and Lockett. So, if they can pass block and stay healthy (add Rawls into the talk), could be an explosive offense. But that's a big if.

http://www.fieldgulls.com/seahawks-analysis/2015/10/9/9483543/russell-okung-free-agent-salary-cap-seahawks-nfl

 

[jmdirt]

I've been a Seahawks fan since the early '70s.* There are a lot of bandwagon "fans" out there now because of their recent success. Anyone who agrees with the Cam ban is likely a bandwagon fan. There was a SF "fan" who wanted to ban the 12th man, there are loonies for every team. Unless ASO buys the NFL, don't count on any bans.

Continuing the local theme and adding to the OL being important: The Bronco's center Matt Paradis is from a tiny town in Idaho, and played at BSU. Needless to say, there are a lot of people in Idaho who are cheering for him. He played his ars off this year!

*Growing up in small-town Idaho (Priest River) the Seahawks were the "local" team. We could hop in the car, go to the Kingdome, and watch them play. It was FN EXCITING!

 

[jmdirt]

Troy Aikman said that D should bring in RG3 AND draft a future franchise QB.

EDIT: Troy wasn't too complimentary of J. Jones.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Agree the whole "ban Cam" thing is ridiculous. It's just stupid. The guy is a great player having fun on the field, and entertaining his fans. That's it. What do these fans think of Michael Vick? Or Greg Hardy? There's also nothing that classless about Cam. If you think he's a showboat and don't like showboats, that's fine, I can see that. But it's not like he's degrading or taunting other players, or fans. He never does that.

Speaking of...Von Miller admitted in Sunday's game that after tackling Brady, he at least once rubbed his crotch into Tom's face(mask). I wonder if he'll try a similar trick with Cam? What if the score is 27-3 Carolina at the time?

The problem with drafting a "future franchise" QB is that it's really hard to say the player in the draft is that person. Even Andrew Luck, who was about as surefire future franchise ever, has struggled at times, and been hurt. He is still excellent, but not yet to the level I think everyone expected. Then there was Russell Wilson, who wasn't even supposed to start as a rookie after being drafted in the 3rd round...

 

[jmdirt]

Re:

Agree the whole "ban Cam" thing is ridiculous. It's just stupid. The guy is a great player having fun on the field, and entertaining his fans. That's it. What do these fans think of Michael Vick? Or Greg Hardy? There's also nothing that classless about Cam. If you think he's a showboat and don't like showboats, that's fine, I can see that. But it's not like he's degrading or taunting other players, or fans. He never does that.

Speaking of...Von Miller admitted in Sunday's game that after tackling Brady, he at least once rubbed his crotch into Tom's face(mask). I wonder if he'll try a similar trick with Cam? What if the score is 27-3 Carolina at the time?

The problem with drafting a "future franchise" QB is that it's really hard to say the player in the draft is that person. Even Andrew Luck, who was about as surefire future franchise ever, has struggled at times, and been hurt. He is still excellent, but not yet to the level I think everyone expected. Then there was Russell Wilson, who wasn't even supposed to start as a rookie after being drafted in the 3rd round...

Drafting any position can be a bit of a crap-shoot, but especially QB. Without Googling a lot, I'd say there's been as many flop top picks as star lower picks. Troy even said that the next QB1 could be someone we aren't even thinking about today. Also, when he was suggesting that RG3 was the direction D should go for a backup to TR, he almost implied that RG3 could become the future franchise guy. While I wouldn't bet my retirement on that, who knows.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Well, if I were Dallas I'd definitely pursue RG3. He's the only thing keeping himself from being great. He has a heap of talent, a great arm with deep field accuracy, is able to scan the entire field, and is smart. Maybe too smart, which has gotten into his head. But he, with some pushing from coaches, has got to learn to be a QB who doesn't run, but uses his legs to move around in the pocket, or even outside the pocket, in order to throw the ball, and any runs he does, needs to at best be like Russell Wilson or Alex Smith, and end in slides, or runs out of bounds. Even just crumbling like a wimp the way QBs like Brady and Manning (heck, add Rodgers, Tannehill, Cutler, Bradford, Stafford, etc.) is perfectly acceptable. He's simply not built like Cam Newton or Collin Kaepernick, and has knees (and a body) that need to stay healthy.

Going to Dallas, and working with that team behind Romo - who extends plays by moving in the pocket as good as any QB in the NFL - could be an ideal situation for him, and lead to a long, successful career. If he goes there to do just that.

But no matter where he goes, he has to start thinking like a pocket passing QB, now. And he has to get out of his head that he can return to the way he played in his rookie season, "if only..."

But if I were another NFL GM looking for a QB for 2017 and beyond, and he interviewed well with this understanding and an open mind, I'd grab him in a heartbeat.

The biggest mistake Dallas could do is go after Johnny Manziel I think. There have been more recent reports of him being seen drinking, and the guy is just a mess, maybe an alcoholic or addict (essentially the same). Having him go to the team he wants to play for isn't going to change that. It will fill seats and sell garb, but Dallas can do that already, and could do it with RG3 too.

http://larrybrownsports.com/football/johnny-manziel-partied-at-bar-afc-championship/290403

 

[jmdirt]

Re:

Well, if I were Dallas I'd definitely pursue RG3. He's the only thing keeping himself from being great. He has a heap of talent, a great arm with deep field accuracy, is able to scan the entire field, and is smart. Maybe too smart, which has gotten into his head. But he, with some pushing from coaches, has got to learn to be a QB who doesn't run, but uses his legs to move around in the pocket, or even outside the pocket, in order to throw the ball, and any runs he does, needs to at best be like Russell Wilson or Alex Smith, and end in slides, or runs out of bounds. Even just crumbling like a wimp the way QBs like Brady and Manning (heck, add Rodgers, Tannehill, Cutler, Bradford, Stafford, etc.) is perfectly acceptable. He's simply not built like Cam Newton or Collin Kaepernick, and has knees (and a body) that need to stay healthy.

Going to Dallas, and working with that team behind Romo - who extends plays by moving in the pocket as good as any QB in the NFL - could be an ideal situation for him, and lead to a long, successful career. If he goes there to do just that.

But no matter where he goes, he has to start thinking like a pocket passing QB, now. And he has to get out of his head that he can return to the way he played in his rookie season, "if only..."

But if I were another NFL GM looking for a QB for 2017 and beyond, and he interviewed well with this understanding and an open mind, I'd grab him in a heartbeat.

The biggest mistake Dallas could do is go after Johnny Manziel I think. There have been more recent reports of him being seen drinking, and the guy is just a mess, maybe an alcoholic or addict (essentially the same). Having him go to the team he wants to play for isn't going to change that. It will fill seats and sell garb, but Dallas can do that already, and could do it with RG3 too.

http://larrybrownsports.com/football/johnny-manziel-partied-at-bar-afc-championship/290403

I agree with all of what you said about RG3. With the correct guidance he can be a good to great QB in the NFL.

Jones has a boner for JManz so it won't shock me if they bring him to camp. My gut feeling is that Romo and Garrett are begging Jones not to. I read (x2) that Jones likes Wentz from NDS 'if' he drafts a QB.

 

[Catwhoorg]

My Favorite example of drafting a QB, is the QBs drafted in the first round of 2005.

Alex Smith #1 overall by the 49ers. One trip to the post season in 8 years (2/3 Now he is a Chief, so a late bloomer, but still a workman rather than a notable star)

Aaron Rodgers (#24th), 3 seasons as a back-up and learning the system, a transition year into the starting role (6-10), then 7 straight trips to the playoffs. Generally acknowledged as a "star QB" and future HOFer

Jason Cambell (25th) 4 years with the 'skins, tender a contract just so they would get a compensatory pick, then hoped round place to place.


One of the issues with a #1 pick, is they usually get plugged in straight away, with huge burdens of expectations.
AR is a great talent, but the nurturing he got a GB is something he (probably) wouldn't have got elsewhere, and maybe that is why he became such a franchise QB.

 

[52520Andrew]

The Cowboys are getting a really good look at Wentz at the Senior Bowl this week.

 

[jmdirt]

Re:

My Favorite example of drafting a QB, is the QBs drafted in the first round of 2005.

Alex Smith #1 overall by the 49ers. One trip to the post season in 8 years (2/3 Now he is a Chief, so a late bloomer, but still a workman rather than a notable star)

Aaron Rodgers (#24th), 3 seasons as a back-up and learning the system, a transition year into the starting role (6-10), then 7 straight trips to the playoffs. Generally acknowledged as a "star QB" and future HOFer

Jason Cambell (25th) 4 years with the 'skins, tender a contract just so they would get a compensatory pick, then hoped round place to place.


One of the issues with a #1 pick, is they usually get plugged in straight away, with huge burdens of expectations.
AR is a great talent, but the nurturing he got a GB is something he (probably) wouldn't have got elsewhere, and maybe that is why he became such a franchise QB.

I think that your last paragraph about AR is the "point". Even though he was a 5/6th round pick, Tom B. might not be who he is had he not developed a little first. Its tough to be a successful rookie starting QB. Sure it can be done, but I think that it has crashed several guys who could have ended up being stars. Plus, the first rounders go to poor teams who usually don't protect them well so they get the crap pounded out of them. Really RG3 is a great example of this. Yes, he was a great running QB his rookie year, but it was because he was running for his life, and he paid the price. Had he gone to a team with a solid vet starter, and developed behind them, he would be (more) ready to be an NFL starter now. Maybe Dallas will provide that for him.

 

[jmdirt]

D. Foxworth had a interesting argument about how head coaches are selected in the NFL. He said that the pool is out of work head coaches who have had bad seasons, and coordinators who have had good seasons. He can't figure out why a team would hire a recycled head coach (unless there was a specific characteristic that was desired for your team), and hiring the best coordinators doesn't (usually) make sense either. He said "your team needs a QB so you ask "who is the best player on the Texans?" JJW. So you bring in JJ because he is the best player." His point: Its not the same job. The best O coordinator likely won't be the best head coach...

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

That too is a crapshoot. Belicheck and Pete Carroll are both retread coaches.

The coaches that tend to do best from the coordinator position, are ones who have been groomed for some time towards that goal. Sean Payton and Mike Tomlin come to mind. Jon Gruden was like that. Maybe Adam Gase and Ben MacAddo fit that, we'll see.

For what it's worth, Alex Smith has been to the playoffs four times. Once leading the 49ers to the NFC championship, when a fumbled punt cost them the game. The next year he was playing great for SF when hurt, and permanently benched in favor of Kaep. Last year with the Chiefs, losing a shootout to the Colts, and now this year.

I also cut him some slack for the early years in SF. He went through a new OC every year, several head coaches, and had a fracture in his shoulder that was not properly diagnosed at one point. My big quibble with him is the same as before, while he doesn't have a weak arm, his accuracy down the field and hard throws to the sidelines over 10 yards or so are lacking. Though he's deadly accurate on shorter throws even into very heavy traffic, and makes few bad mistakes.

 

[jmdirt]

Re:

That too is a crapshoot. Belicheck and Pete Carroll are both retread coaches.

The coaches that tend to do best from the coordinator position, are ones who have been groomed for some time towards that goal. Sean Payton and Mike Tomlin come to mind. Jon Gruden was like that. Maybe Adam Gase and Ben MacAddo fit that, we'll see.

For what it's worth, Alex Smith has been to the playoffs four times. Once leading the 49ers to the NFC championship, when a fumbled punt cost them the game. The next year he was playing great for SF when hurt, and permanently benched in favor of Kaep. Last year with the Chiefs, losing a shootout to the Colts, and now this year.

I also cut him some slack for the early years in SF. He went through a new OC every year, several head coaches, and had a fracture in his shoulder that was not properly diagnosed at one point. My big quibble with him is the same as before, while he doesn't have a weak arm, his accuracy down the field and hard throws to the sidelines over 10 yards or so are lacking. Though he's deadly accurate on shorter throws even into very heavy traffic, and makes few bad mistakes.

Really when it comes down to it, most decisions in sports are crap shoots. Certainly there are factors that indicate some decisions will be less of a crap shoot, but there are so many moving pieces that there are no safe bets. For example, Pete Carroll going to Seattle was a calculated risk that has paid off quite well, but just as easily could have ended poorly a few years ago, without other things falling into place (ie: Wilson...).

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

If Tom Brady had been just another 6th round pick that fizzled out, would Belichek won a Super Bowl with Drew Bledsoe? Probably Matt Cassel? Maybe. Why if the Browns didn't move? Or taken Bill with to Baltimore?

What if Warfield, Kiick and Csonka didn't go to the WFL?

What if Foreman wasn't a sucker for Ali's rope-a-dope?!

We can second guess forever.

 

[Merckx index]

Aaron Rodgers benefited somewhat from not starting immediately, but it wasn't as simple as "nurturing" him. The reason he didn't start right away was because Favre stuck around longer than expected. He would say he was going to retire, then change his mind, and if the reports I've heard are correct, he had little interest in helping Rodgers develop, saw him as a rival threatening to take his job. Rodgers chafed at the bit during this period, it was very difficult and frustrating for him.

Conversely, there are abundant examples of QBs who started their rookie year and have done great--Luck (though he's been challenged by a poor OL), Newton and Wilson. Winston and Mariota seemed to have done reasonably well as rookies. Though this is a relatively recent phenomenon, Marino took over in the middle of his rookie season and of course was sensational. Elway started as a rookie, though he shared starting duties with an older QB.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Troy Aikman as a rookie? Started 11 games and lead them to a 1-15 record. He had 9 TD's and 18 interceptions.

Joe Montana's rookie year, played in 6 games, often garbage time throwing short passes, in a 2-14 season. The next year they were 6-10.

 

[52520Andrew]

Flacco and Ryan both leading their teams to the playoffs in their first year was a big part in the recent trend of guys being taken at QB to start week 1. You do need to have the talent around the QB though as well(unless you are Luck his rookie year) in order to be successful. Most QBs struggle in that first year quite a bit if not in the right situation.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Good post.

Only three QB's in NFL history who were taken #1 overall in the draft have made the Hall of Fame. Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman, and John Elway.

No QB will be taken 1st in the draft (unless the Titans trade the pick to someone crazy desperate, but who?), but will Carson Wentz, Jared Goff or Connor Cook start from game 1 and do well? Not likely would be my guess. I haven't fully scouted them, but have seen all three at least some. None of these guys will have a team like Flacco did to help, and none have developed talent along the lines of Andrew Luck (or RG3 for that matter).

 

[52520Andrew]

Peyton is going to join those guys in a few years as well but agreed that taking a QB with the first overall pick is far from a guaranteed franchise guy. There have been a fair share of complete busts taken at first overall as well like Jamarcus Russel. One thing extra I should note about him is that he had one of the best pro days ever which is a great example that you shouldn't read too much into the pro days. There are also the QBs who are put in bad situations and are asked to try to make something happen without much around them like David Carr and even guys like Sam Bradford and Alex Smith the first few years of their careers. It is rare for guys to come right out and do well at QB and even the first overall pick last year in Winston had struggles. One thing to take into account though is how well guys like Bortles and Carr did this year compared to last year and Winston did show some flashes this year.

In terms of who I think has the best shot at coming into the league this year and doing well from the start, I really only see it under a couple scenarios with the QBs coming out this year. I think if a team like the Rams or Texans get a guy like Wentz then I think they have a shot. The Rams have to upgrade that O-line though but Houston is a talented team outside of QB and the right guy could be huge for them. I like Goff as well but I don't know if he is a guy who is going to come in straight away and do well. I think a year or two of development could do him wonders in the right situation like another QB from Cal. I like Cook a good bit as well but he is a guy who I would be looking at more in the early second.

There are a lot of interesting options at QB this year though including guys like Paxton Lynch who is very talented but may need some development, Christian Hackenburg who played his freshman year under Houston head coach Bill O'Brien and showed his most promise in that year, and a few other intriguing mid round selections. Someone else I should throw out there is Vernon Adams out of Oregon who had a really nice East West Shrine Game and did well at Oregon when he was healthy. Before that, he played at Eastern Washington at the FCS level and did well there. Could be an interesting dark horse although he is 5'11 and 195 pounds which is very small and will probably see him fall on draft day.

 

[movingtarget]

Re:

My Favorite example of drafting a QB, is the QBs drafted in the first round of 2005.

Alex Smith #1 overall by the 49ers. One trip to the post season in 8 years (2/3 Now he is a Chief, so a late bloomer, but still a workman rather than a notable star)

Aaron Rodgers (#24th), 3 seasons as a back-up and learning the system, a transition year into the starting role (6-10), then 7 straight trips to the playoffs. Generally acknowledged as a "star QB" and future HOFer

Jason Cambell (25th) 4 years with the 'skins, tender a contract just so they would get a compensatory pick, then hoped round place to place.


One of the issues with a #1 pick, is they usually get plugged in straight away, with huge burdens of expectations.
AR is a great talent, but the nurturing he got a GB is something he (probably) wouldn't have got elsewhere, and maybe that is why he became such a franchise QB.

The 49ers could have taken Rodgers but took Smith. Hindsight is a wonderful thing ! I think Brady was a 7th round pick ? It's a lottery and great college careers don't always translate to the NFL and sometimes less than stellar college careers can be meaningless. I think most teams would be happy to grab one or two draft picks that become regulars. Some hardly ever make the field or make the squad and get cut without ever really being used. Picking the superstar is incredibly difficult without having seen them compete at NFL level.

 

[movingtarget]

i heard a rumor that Cleveland are going cool on Goff. The 49ers have been looking at a few QBs as well. The Kaep situation is a long way from being resolved although it seems he may be given another chance or a fresh start with the new coach. There is a lot of speculation. 49ers should be looking to strengthen their Offensive Line anyway. Their new DC is a curious choice from Cleveland !