Basically it comes down to this:
Your QB is as good (or bad) as the other 10 players around you. Stats (Rating, Y/PP, etc.) are most of time only useful when you see it as team stats. Perfect examples are Steve Young and Matt Cassel. Unlike baseball, individual stats normally don´t work in football.
Sure, the QB is the most important player on a team, but media gives too much credit to this one player. Studies were tried to extract QB-Performance from team performance. The conclusion was/is that the starter wins approx. just 1 more game then the replacement. But keep in mind, that the back ups do not get 1st team reps, are "rusty" when called upon, have less influence on On-Field-Descisons/Playbooks. What i mean is, your superstar QB may is allowed to call own plays, at least to audible; has influence on playbooks like Manning. But your usual Backup-QB has strictly to follow the plays called on the sideline, no matter how stupid they are. He´s got no influence at all in strategies etc. If you substract that all, i guess there is no difference between the No. 1 and 2 QB* on an NFL-Roster. Even sometimes the better QB sits on the bench b/c of some overpaid high draft pick (see Carr, Leinart, Russell, Couch, etc. etc. etc.).
* The real bad backups are usually gone after a few bad outings, while the high paid QB gets millions of chances until he´s benched.
To drafting QB´s: I linked one study in december (?), which says that there is no signifant (if at all) difference in NFL-Performance between high picks and low picks when looking strictly on per play stats. What it means? Either scouts don´t know what they do (as Alpe linked), or QB-Performance in college can not be extracted from team performance. Thus making it difficult to evaluate QB´s. But then why not looking strictly at arm strength and accuracy. Don´t let your brain be fooled by college film, stats and idiotic meassurments (ht, wt, wonderlic, vertical jump, 40-Dash, etc.). At least that´s what i would do.
Merckx index said:
I could point out that Montana ... Young ... Favre played pretty well...
Still Montana had the system. And before Rice he had Clark & Solomon (and world class sprinter Nehemiah). Also to mention is Taylor. Basically it was 5-yard-slant-in-soft-toss by Montana
, and then Rice or Taylor sprinting 80 yds for the TD. Ok, that´s a very simple picture. But it happened a whole lot.
Young and Seifert inherited the players and system from Walsh. No new rocket science was needed. All the tools were there.
Manning had high highs and very low lows (like that 0-41 shutout to the NYJ). I guess every coach would like to have consistent performance instead of high variance, b/c the last game will always be the lowest low point. You just can´t win anything by doing that. 1 SB by each Manning and Favre says it all. From 2001 on, Favre stupid Int´s ruined every year, also the game vs. the Saints...
Merckx index said:
But Foxy has a good point. These guys all have flaws. In this spirit, I want to point out some other famous QBs who were overrated:
Johnny Unitas...
Was probably most famous for winning the so-called “greatest game every played” against the NY Giants (in those days, the Giants did not get lucky in big games). The Colts blew ...
If he were in today’s draft: While showing good leadership skills, accuracy definitely a problem. Too many turnovers. Projected as a late round choice.
You can´t compare ratings and TD/Int ratios of different eras. The rules in the old days really hurt the QB-Stats. You have to see it in the context of the era. Y/PP, rating, etc., he was way above his counterparts. He surley belongs to the HOF. He was allowed to throw as much as no one else back in the 50s. That means the coaches really trusted his arm. He was the early Marino...
I´d pick him No. 1. But only b/c in can look at it in a hindsight.
"The greatest game" isn´t the greatest. Rosenbloom bet 500.000 $ on the game, the line had to be covered. There was some obscure outside influence. Discussed well back in december...
The Giants got lucky in the 30s (sneakers game), the 90s and nowadays. Even the bad years can´t wash away the fact that they are the luckiest team ever. My opinion.
Merckx index said:
Joe Namath...
If he were in today’s draft: Injury prone, and attitude problems (known to like to stay out all night partying). Questionable whether worth drafting at all.
Same as Unitas. His stats were easily better then those of his counterparts. He was allowed to throw as much as possible. So coaches really trusted him. The only negative: He had the "McMahon sickness", speak too much injuries.
I´d take Namath, Ulle and McMahon over all the nice poster boys... They know/knew how to party. I don´t see a attitude problem here, since they all performed after partying. They must have enjoyed lots of unforgettable nights. I am jealous here.
Alpe once posted a great link of this great QB.
I´d pick him No.1...
Merckx index said:
Terry Bradshaw...
If he were in today’s draft: Big with strong arm, but not highly accurate. Uncomfortable passing the ball a lot. Would never make it as a starter in today’s pass happy NFL. Might be a decent backup.
Agree and don´t. He started slowly. The D won him the 1st SB. But the other 3 SB-Seasons (and basically all his late years) he was great. Easily topping his counterparts in efficiency even tough of the real bad beginning. Sure, as Montana, great WRs help.
I´d pick him early in the 2nd round...
Merckx index said:
Dan Fouts...
If he were in today’s draft: A dangerous pick, because likes to gamble, throwing into coverage. Not clear if he even knows how to hand off to a RB, having had so little experience at it. Would require lots of patience to develop.
Sad story. The weather killed one season, two 5-Int-Games killed another two, and the D yet just another. Good talent around him surely helped (as this is true with almost every successful QB), but i doubt Coryell would have allowed some non talented guy like Mirer to throw on every down. There must have been (and surely is) something special about this QB.
No need to mention that his efficiency was way above his counterparts trou-out his career!
I´d pick him in the 1st round...
Merckx index said:
Dan Marino...
If he were in today’s draft: Proven loser in big games. Even one of the all-time greatest HC’s ever can’t win in the postseason with this guy. Not worth it.
The greatest ever. The team went from non passing to super effiecent passing inside his very 1st season. This guy is one of the rare examples where you easily can see the impact of one change in the line up. Wisely Shula let him throw it all out from his 2nd season on. Injuries hurt his game in the later years. Before that he was unsackable & unstoppable.
All but one playoff loss (before his late years) can be attached to poor performance.
He was light years in front of other QB´s.
Easy No. 1 pick...
Merckx index said:
John Elway...
If he were in today’s draft: Has a cannon arm (threw an 80 yd pass against Cal in college, passes routinely thrown so hard that it leaves a mark, known as the Elway Cross, on the palms of his receivers). Good scrambler. But can’t win big games on his arm. Needs a run-oriented offense to take the pressure off him.
I can remember my baseball teamate/friend choose No. 7 as his back number (i choose No 9, of course). We watched together his comebacks every year with wide open eyes. We knew magic is in the air
before the games. He never disappointed us outside of superbowls. Finally he got his act together in his late years. Unforgettable moments even in the SB then (helicopter, bombs away vs. ATL).
No. 1 pick...
Merckx index said:
Tom Brady...
If he were in today’s draft: Can’t win big games without “help”, and by help we don’t mean his teammates. On a level playing field, where he actually has to guess what the opposing defense will do, he gets leveled.
Here i agree 100%. The system made the QB. The 1st SB-Win was fixed. There is no doubt in my mind. Warner got stolen 2 SB´s (see my december/january posts).
Still can´t believe how the public voted him MVP vs SL. He threw dumps offs vs a stupid prevent D, he made it trou the post season by the tuck rule, SpT-TDs and luck/outside influence. He basically had nothing to do with the first SB. The other wins were aided by great D performance and luck again (thank you stupid kicker of CAR, it still annoys up today). Once the passing O started to click, he choked every year in the playoffs.
Overrated guy.
I´d pick him as he was originally: in the 6th round...
Merckx index said:
Drew Brees...
If he were in today’s draft: Too tiny for the NFL at 5’11”. Would never get his passes off against monster DL. Maybe a late round choice.
Besides i don´t like his greed, he´s a heck of a QB. No rollercoaster performances like Manning, but consistency year in year out. Thank you fatty Williams to ruin two SB-runs in sucsession.
I don´t know how much fake is in this, but still impressive:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVoqA-LKGb4
Brees (next to Flutie, McMahon, etc.) is a perfect example what ht. means: absolutely nothing. But hey scouts, better pick tall QB´s of famous brothers (McGwire)
I´d pick Brees No. 1, no doubt about it...