National Football League

[Alpe d'Huez]

I wouldn't call Jeff George a bust either. But he never fit in Atlanta (though June Jones later said their spat was way overblown), and he never rose to the level of his talent. The Raiders went through way too much turmoil when he was there and he kept changing plays. And he seemed to fall off after that. A disappointing career, but definitely not a bust.

Billick said Ryan Tannehill is irrationally moving up the draft. Didn't play in many college games, didn't play great in big college games. Didn't throw at the Combine. But he looks good in shorts, and teams are desperate, so they are falling in love with him. Thus I wouldn't call Billick an idiot. But if Tannehill proves to be a star, I'll rescind this comment.

Ok. So a Franchise can kill a QB career. Is it not also true that a QB can kill a Franchise's chance of success for years as well. Even of the rest of team is at a high level?

Foxxy listed them, but it goes deeper than that. I'm not saying Akili Smith would have won a few Superbowls if NE, Pitt or NYG would have drafted him, no. But I wouldn't say he killed a Cincinnati team that would have gone deep into the playoffs with someone else. I think the fact is there are dozens of average QB's drafted every year that teams hope will turn them into the next big winner. But it's rare that a QB comes along like Brady. Sure, if he were on Buffalo they'd probably finish 8-8, maybe 9-7, instead of 6-10. But you could take about 20 QB's in the NFL and trade them, and the result wouldn't be a big shift in games won/lost. We've seen this over and over through the years. Schaub, Kolb, Cassel, Brees, Cutler, Orton, etc. They're about as good on their new team as their old one, and the team as a whole improves or doesn't more often than the QB who brings change. Even the curve at the top where Brady, Rodgers, Brees, P. Manning are isn't that higher than where Stafford, Ryan, Rivers, etc. sit. There's a small difference, and success is so dictated by the team as a whole.

This is why I say both the Colts and Skins will be better in the next couple years, because they will improve some and be better as a team. And they'll have a talented young QB at the same time.

The Broncos will be pretty good this year. But they were good last year too. Manning is better than Tebow, and I won't be surprised if the Broncos make the playoffs. But I'll be really surprised if they walk away with the Lombardi trophy. They're also going to have stiff competition in the AFC West from a stacked KC team, if the Chiefs can get their act together.

If Matt Flynn does well in Seattle it will be because the OL will protect him and gels (and if Carpenter gets healthy) and the team as a whole continues to improve. He does look like he has a good arm with accuracy. But no one honestly expects him to play every game like his win last year against Detroit. He's a lot better than a blind draft pick, and most likely Tjax. But Seattle still needs to improve as a team.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Sure, why not. And if it´s only b/c he looks a bit like Rohan Davey.
If he has only half of his arm and accuracy, i´d take him.

Let's see where you draw the line. Would you take Boise State's 5'10" Kellen Moore, who ran somewhere close to 4.9 seconds in the 40-yard dash at the combine... and looked pudgy doing it? And if so, what round of the draft?

What Wisconsin's Wilson seems to have over Moore is confidence (not to mention athleticism). Moore might have confidence (even though he did not appear too confident in his ability to make it in the NFL in the Gruden Camp), but Wilson bled confidence in his interview with Gruden. The contrast between those two QBs interview with Gruden was like night and day. Having said that, an interview with Gruden is not a very good draft day deal breaker. So Moore's situation will be an interesting one to watch in the draft. Wilson I'm sure will be picked somewhere in the draft, I'm just not as sure Moore will be.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Just saw this segment on the NFL network:
ALL-TIME TOP 4 NFL BACKUP QBs (in the order listed)
1. Kurt Warner – Initially was a Scout team QB for the Rams and later started and won the SB for the Rams (filling in for injured Trent Green in 1998). In 2008 Matt Leinart was named the starting QB in the offseason for the Cards. Later that season, Warner led the Cards to a SB appearance with the Steelers that was won by the Steelers.
2. Earl Morrell – steady backup for the Colts and Fins, helping both teams to SB victories, including the Fins perfect season (in which Griese returned as the starter in the playoffs later that year). Griese got the credit for the perfect season, but much of the credit was due to Morrell.
3. Jim Plunkett – Failed as 1st round pick of the terrible Patriots (1971-1975), then failed with horrible SF teams (1976-1977). Then won 2 SBs as a backup QB for the Raiders (1980 as backup to Dan Pastorini who broke his leg, led the Raiders to 9 wins in 11 starts, then won the SB as first ever wild card team to win a SB; and 1983 as backup to injured Marc Wilson led the Raiders to another SB victory).
4. Jeff Hostetler – for the 1990 NYG, started and won final 2 games for injured Phil Sims who had a broken foot, and then swept through the playoffs winning the SB.

Frank Reich (Bills for one) was another one mentioned in the TV segment. Not sure I agree on the order they had them. I might put Morrell or Plunkett at #1.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Another thing to consider is the type of system a QB is playing in. Teams like NE, GB, NO, SD, DAL, DET, rely on the QB controlling the game, and throwing all the time, often down the field, and constantly making clutch passes. Teams like NYG, SF, ARI, SEA, CIN, BAL don't ask as much of their QB, as they typically have better defenses, and run more. They are based more on containment, low risk, key plays.

So, Would Joe Flacco be a winner in NE? Aaron Rodgers in Arizona? Probably. You tell me.

a.) "I'd like to hear if anyone thinks any of the recent QB busts would have been successful if they'd gone elsewhere". That´s a guessing game.

I'll play. Looking back over the last 10+ years, here are the bulk of the 1st round picks (some 2nd round) that either didn't play well, or busted. I purposefully left out many who have played well, from Rodgers to Tebow to Ryan, Stafford, etc.

Jimmy Clausen – Bust in Carolina. Head case, would have probably busted in New England or Pittsburgh even. Career not over just yet.

Mark Sanchez – Couldn’t have played for a better team for his skills. Put him anywhere else and he would have busted.

Josh Freeman – Still some hope he can improve. Bad 3rd season. Not sure going elsewhere would have really helped that much. If he flops this year in TB he may be done.

JaMarcus Russell – Biggest bust in NFL history if you ask me. Could have gone to New England, Pittsburgh, NO, GB, anywhere, and still would have busted.

Brady Quinn – Was 2007’s Ryan Tannehill, but with a big ego. Kept going up and up in all the hype, but peaked early, slipped badly on draft day, and went to home team Cleveland. People were surprised he dropped so far. Then he held out, making it worse. Cleveland stinks and had he gone to a good team, he may have done better, but I still call bust. He’s still in the NFL but I think anywhere he went, he was a destined back-up.

Drew Stanton – Taken in the 2nd round, I bring him up because he went to the Lions at their nadir, and may have played better on a better team.

Vince Young – Almost a bust. Probably should be considered so considering how high he was drafted, and that he played for some good teams. So I say no, would not have been great on any team. Also a problem child. May still have time in his career left, playing in Philly.

Matt Leinart – Bust. No matter where he played. Not on the level of Russell, more like Clausen. Career may be over.

Alex Smith – May have actually done well in a different situation. Playing for that many coaches and OC’s, I’m impressed his confidence wasn’t shattered. Maybe, maybe the one guy in this entire list I can point my finger at and say “had he been somewhere like NE, Pitt, NYG, GB, etc. he would have been a star.”. Still time for him though.

Jason Campbell – 1st round pick who may have done better elsewhere. Hard to say. Inconsistent. But matured and played well last year for OAK before getting hurt. Should push Cutler in Chicago. May be the best back-up QB in the NFL at this point.

JP Losman –Doubt he would have done much better had he played on a good team, but probably wouldn’t have as bad.

David Carr - Taken #1 overall, has to be the 2nd biggest bust on this list (behind Russell) he never played well at Houston, and only marginally better elsewhere. I say no. Would not have been a star, even on a great team. Basically a career backup, but did stick around the league long enough to get a ring with the Giants.

Joey Harrington - Similar (and see Drew Stanton above). Had the tools, on a rotten team. Heart didn't always seem in it. Upon retirement said he was just happy with his college career and getting picked for the NFL, which is all he ever wanted to do. Would have been better drafted to someone other than Detroit, but never would have won the big game.

Going back past that, I can't think of a single bust before 2000 that would have been a star elsewhere. Couch, Druckenmiller, McNown, Klinger, Mirer, Ware, Akili Smith, Leaf, Shuler, Blackledge, Marinovich - All of them had plenty of chances, and would have busted no matter where they went. At best some of these guys may have been mediocre elsewhere. Marinovich has to be the saddest story of all. On3m@m might also remember Dan McGwire, taken ahead of Brett Favre by Seattle. Like Druckenmiller he was a big guy with a cannon for an arm (Druckenmiller supposedly once threw a ball 100 yards in the air in practice. Take that Andrew Luck!). Didn't matter. Couldn't play. Neither the Seahawks or 49ers were bad then either.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

The absolute worst out of that bunch has to be Leaf, even if you ignore non-football issues. But including non-football issues... it is not pretty. I do remember Dan McGwire. The day he was drafted I knew that was not going anywhere. The thing I actually remember most about him though is the most forgettable thing in Seahawk history, and it does not have to do with Dan, but who the owner and HC was who drafted him. Tom Flores was the puppet HC of inept owner/liar/thief Ken Behring who tried to steal the team to California (Oakland I think). They actually packed up and moved in the middle of the night. As I remember it took some legislation to reverse that move before the season started. But it was the idiot Behring who insisted that Seattle draft Dan McGwire.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Druckenmiller supposedly once threw a ball 100 yards in the air in practice. Take that Andrew Luck!

No way. That´s internet myths. Even some people believe this Vick commercial when he threw the ball into the stands.

And many folks mistake scoring plays of 99 yds with 99-Net-Air-Throws. That´s all nonsense.

Logic says if the strongest threw 80+ (like Favre in the QB-Challenge, or George at the combine), no way some obscure busts throw 25% farther. That would be like someone beats Canc or Ulle by 12 mins. in a 50km ITT !!! It´s absurd.

I eyewitnessed Davey throwing 75 from one knee (of which i still don´t believe my eyes). That would be about 87 in full motion. Humans can´t throw longer than this (ok, maybe Jan Zelezny, the travelin world record holder, could do).

Edit: Flacco who is known for his strong arm couldn´t get further then 74 at the Challenge (look at the butter arms he beat, it´s worth watching, they are all in the "Mirer-Class" , except Chad Henne).

Link:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1fa_GrbdcjY

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Behring tried to move the Seahawks to Anaheim (LA) and actually did move operations there. That guy was an inept owner, and despite all his smiles and philanthropy, not a good person. You can look up some of the rotten things he's done.

Leaf was bad, and has serious problems, but football wise he still wasn't as bad as Russell. Leaf actually had several injuries, and a longer career with a couple decent games. Russel had none. Leaf has also since admitted making many mistakes, and obviously has other issues. Russell never apologized for anything. They both were total busts, but Russel was worse. Biggest bust ever. Leaf second.

No way. That´s internet myth.

The Druckenmiller myth of the 100 yard pass was before the internet, and almost no video exists of the guy, so it stands to reason the 100 yard pass myth won't die anytime soon. Even if it is nonsense.

That Flacco toss was indeed impressive! What's also interesting is looking at his competition there: Matt Ryan has probably outperformed him in the NFL. Chad Henne hasn't done much, other than get hurt. John David Booty never got anywhere, and Colt Brennan, for all his stats and accuracy at Hawaii, never got far either.

 

[Amsterhammer]

Christ, my head fell off trying to understand this page. You guys really need to start a blog - or write a book, or something. All this knowledge and all these amazing memories just going to waste on a cycling forum is plain wrong.

Thanks once again for all of this truly mind-boggling input, even if most of it is way over the level of interest that I can manage to muster for the NFL.

Would any of you three gents object if I linked this topic in another forum's NFL topic? Several of my friends there think that they know something about football, and I'd love to show them some guys who really do know something!l

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Yeah show them that the cyclists really know sports ... i guess you talk about espn´s forum. I gave up a long time to post there. It´s like kindergarten.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

The Druckenmiller myth of the 100 yard pass was before the internet, and almost no video exists of the guy, so it stands to reason the 100 yard pass myth won't die anytime soon. Even if it is nonsense.

That Flacco toss was indeed impressive! What's also interesting is looking at his competition there: Matt Ryan has probably outperformed him in the NFL. Chad Henne hasn't done much, other than get hurt. John David Booty never got anywhere, and Colt Brennan, for all his stats and accuracy at Hawaii, never got far either.

I guess "almost" is a little bit much. I assume no video at all exists, unless people got fooled by a nerf ball throw.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=exr906nBi3g

At one half time show in a Berlin Thunder game there was a nerf ball competition for people from the audience. One guy was pretty awesome he threw it from endzone to endzone and won of course...

And now imagine how strong Luck really is. He throws even farther then Flacco (ok, it was wind aided )

To be honest since i am one of the few guys looking for arm strength, i´d never have drafted Ryan. But also none of those busts (Frye, Mirer, McNown, to name the worst).

Booty and Brennan may should try indoor leagues. I guess no arm is needed there.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Behring tried to move the Seahawks to Anaheim (LA) and actually did move operations there. That guy was an inept owner, and despite all his smiles and philanthropy, not a good person. You can look up some of the rotten things he's done.

Leaf was bad, and has serious problems, but football wise he still wasn't as bad as Russell. Leaf actually had several injuries, and a longer career with a couple decent games. Russel had none. Leaf has also since admitted making many mistakes, and obviously has other issues. Russell never apologized for anything. They both were total busts, but Russel was worse. Biggest bust ever. Leaf second.

Thanks for the Anaheim correction. I was going off memory. But I know what you mean about not a good person. Yech!

Ok, I'll give a win on the claim the Jamarcus bust is a bigger bust than Leaf. It's just that Leaf's from my alma mater, so it means more to me. Funny, he was a pretty vocal leader at WSU. Turned out he was also a pretty vocal antagonist later with the press.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Christ, my head fell off trying to understand this page. You guys really need to start a blog - or write a book, or something. All this knowledge and all these amazing memories just going to waste on a cycling forum is plain wrong.

Thanks once again for all of this truly mind-boggling input, even if most of it is way over the level of interest that I can manage to muster for the NFL.

Would any of you three gents object if I linked this topic in another forum's NFL topic? Several of my friends there think that they know something about football, and I'd love to show them some guys who really do know something!l

Don't sell yourself short Amsterhammer! But it's not a waste to put this in a cycling forum because it's just a bunch of guys who love talking about the sport with no motive to profit from it. Besides, if some of this were put in a book we'd prolly get sued for slander or something. BTW, there's only two here who are like sports almanacs, and I'm not one. I'm just along for the ride.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

To be honest since i am one of the few guys looking for arm strength, i´d never have drafted Ryan. But also none of those busts (Frye, Mirer, McNown, to name the worst).

Booty and Brennan may should try indoor leagues. I guess no arm is needed there.

I will admit, if a strong armed guy with all the other necessary qualities (accuracy, leader, football smart, etc) were available, and another QB with all the same qualities but with weaker arm were available, I would take the guy with the arm. Having a strong arm is better than not. I still think there's a place for the QB who does not have a howitzer to do well, but like you said before, he would have to have a good supporting cast around him.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Remember what Martz said were the three key factors in scouting a QB: accuracy, accuracy, accuracy!

Feel free to send anyone knowledgable here, sure. But Foxxy is right, most NFL forums are like kindergarden. Foxy knows more than me though, but probably not about college. Still, very impressive, considering he's from Germany.

Don't sell yourself short on3m@' you know quite a bit compared to the average viewer.

Finally, I heard today that the TV ratings for the draft were higher than NBA games! The draft! That's how popular football is.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Oh my. Now it is being reported that the Saints may also have engaged in a form of eavesdropping on opposing team's coaches during games. It is not yet very clear just how this was done, if any information was actually collected, or if any information collected was actually used to help Saints coaches during games, but the allegations point to the use of electronic devices, which violates federal and state laws. The statue of limitations for the federal and state laws is 5 and 6 years, respectively. But even if both statutes of limitations have elapsed there are league rules which were also likely violated if the allegations are true. And if all this is true, Roger Goodell has shown no tolerance for this kind of thing. It is premature at this point to say that anything wrong was done. But I am sure there will be some kind of investigation, and possibly by state and/or federal officials.

Link: http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/7846290/new-orleans-saints-mickey-loomis-eavesdrop-opposing-coaches-home-games

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Remember what Martz said were the three key factors in scouting a QB: accuracy, accuracy, accuracy!

Feel free to send anyone knowledgable here, sure. But Foxxy is right, most NFL forums are like kindergarden. Foxy knows more than me though, but probably not about college. Still, very impressive, considering he's from Germany.

Don't sell yourself short on3m@' you know quite a bit compared to the average viewer.

Finally, I heard today that the TV ratings for the draft were higher than NBA games! The draft! That's how popular football is.

Very true what Martz said. A gun that can't hit the broad side of a barn is of no use to a football team.

I echo Foxxy and Alpe... send 'em here.

NBA highlights for the past couple days.... Meta World Peace elbows OKC's James Harden to the back of the head and gives him a concussion (http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/metta-world-peace-elbows-james-harden-head-video-213746410.html). So that kind of publicity does not help. It's not like the NBA is strong enough to weather bad publicity like the NFL can.

BTW, if all goes well I plan on taking some time off in the afternoon Thursday just so I don't miss the start of the draft. Would never do the same when the NBA draft or even an NBA playoff game was held.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Oh my. Now it is being reported that the Saints may also have engaged in a form of eavesdropping on opposing team's coaches during games.

Incredible, just incredible. Will comment more on it as I learn more. But I agree with all you wrote.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Oh my. Now it is being reported that the Saints may also have engaged in a form of eavesdropping on opposing team's coaches during games. It is not yet very clear just how this was done, if any information was actually collected, or if any information collected was actually used to help Saints coaches during games, but the allegations point to the use of electronic devices, which violates federal and state laws. The statue of limitations for the federal and state laws is 5 and 6 years, respectively. But even if both statutes of limitations have elapsed there are league rules which were also likely violated if the allegations are true. And if all this is true, Roger Goodell has shown no tolerance for this kind of thing. It is premature at this point to say that anything wrong was done. But I am sure there will be some kind of investigation, and possibly by state and/or federal officials.

Link: http://espn.go.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/7846290/new-orleans-saints-mickey-loomis-eavesdrop-opposing-coaches-home-games

Did i always say the NFL is dirty? That´s like fixing. No honest game at all.... BTW, i am not surprised, as you might already know.

Things like that were described in Green´s and Dr. Huizengas book: Video taping, stealing signals, spys, etc. etc. ... The Raiders did it, Beli-Cheat did, i guess everybody did. Sometimes it seems NFL people mistake the game of football as some kind of small cold war between Russia and USA. They are all way over the line... since long.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I will admit, if a strong armed guy with all the other necessary qualities (accuracy, leader, football smart, etc) were available, and another QB with all the same qualities but with weaker arm were available, I would take the guy with the arm. Having a strong arm is better than not. I still think there's a place for the QB who does not have a howitzer to do well, but like you said before, he would have to have a good supporting cast around him.

Remember what Martz said were the three key factors in scouting a QB: accuracy, accuracy, accuracy!

Feel free to send anyone knowledgable here, sure. But Foxxy is right, most NFL forums are like kindergarden. Foxy knows more than me though, but probably not about college. Still, very impressive, considering he's from Germany.

Don't sell yourself short on3m@' you know quite a bit compared to the average viewer.

Finally, I heard today that the TV ratings for the draft were higher than NBA games! The draft! That's how popular football is.

Very true what Martz said. A gun that can't hit the broad side of a barn is of no use to a football team.

I echo Foxxy and Alpe... send 'em here.

NBA highlights for the past couple days.... Meta World Peace elbows OKC's James Harden to the back of the head and gives him a concussion (http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nba-ball-dont-lie/metta-world-peace-elbows-james-harden-head-video-213746410.html). So that kind of publicity does not help. It's not like the NBA is strong enough to weather bad publicity like the NFL can.

BTW, if all goes well I plan on taking some time off in the afternoon Thursday just so I don't miss the start of the draft. Would never do the same when the NBA draft or even an NBA playoff game was held.

There are plenty of strong arms including accuracy available*. The scouts just fall short by looking at the big colleges exclusively. Then they run out of time looking at the small colleges.

* B/C you need perfect mechanics to heave a ball far. I mean this strong armed guys don´t look like weight lifters, they just have the genes, the talent of motion & the incredible wrist snap. All this makes it impossible to be too wild (of those strong armed guys i only remember Brooks and Collins being off target more often than not).

The busts may are lazy, have bad OL´s in the NFL, mental problems, or played in college systems hiding their weaknesses. But these things not only happen to strong guys like Russell and Leaf, but to butter arms as well. Conclusion: I´d always take the strong guy in favour of the so-called (college)winner, intangible guy, perfect football football mind, or whatever the scouts call that unmeasurable "talents". I better go by hard facts (ball speed/strength, mechanics/accuracy).

The most annoying thing in scouting reports is the term "he´s a proven winner". There´s no such thing. The football team wins as a unit. And those who choke under pressure are sorted out well before college. Very few athlets have such tremendous talent that they make it trou all levels hiding their "choking ability" (Favre comes to mind).

College records of some busts (all "proven winners" ):
I only counted years when they had at least 75% of all team passing attempts, since college football don´t list "QB-Starting-Records" like the NFL does.
Vince Young: 24-1 .960
Leinart: 37-2 .949
Al. Smith: 22-2 .917
Harrington: 21-3 .875
Booty: 22-4 .846
Russell: 22-4 .846
Druckenmiller: 20-4 .833
Mirer: 29-7-1 .797
Shuler: 18-5-1 .771
Henne: 27-10 .730
Brennan: 28-11 .718
McNown: 25-10 .714
Carr: 18-8 .692
Ak. Smith: 8-4 .667
Leaf: 15-8 .652
As one can see; "Starting records" mean nothing. Not in college, not in the NFL...
BTW, Kurt Warner had a 8-4 college record at Div. I -AA. The same as Akili Smith had in Div. I.
Warner vs. back ups;
While at SL, under Martz, everybody shone (Warner, Green, Bulger, even Fitzpatrick to some point), Warner´s true value is seeable later.
2004 Warner vs. Eli (63-48%; 7.4-5.3 Y/A; 87-55 Rating),
2005 Warner vs. McCown (65-60%; 7.2-6.8 Y/A; 86-75 Rating),
2006 Warner vs. Leinart (64-57%; 8.2-6.8 Y/A; 89-74 Rating),
2007 Warner vs. Leinart (62-54%; 7.6-5.8 Y/A; 90-62 Rating).
I can only remember Marino & McMahon showing that stark contrasts in efficiency between QB´s at the same team over a long time period. Normally there is no contrast at all (see my other post from weekend). Plus keep in mind that Warner was the back up in those seasons (less reps, less influence, etc.).
Who knows if Warner had been the starter at NE all those years. He might own 7/8 superbowl rings. He might be the best ever...
So Martz knew something (accuracy). OTOH, just remember Warner´s bomb (even tough a tad underthrown) to Bruce. With Mirer at the helm there is no SB-Win for SL. Both McMahon and Warner said how they became QB´s: The youth coach let all the players stand in line and throw the ball. Those who threw the farthest got the job. Simple as that.

@Alpe... no, no, you know more. You have better/more contact to players/coaches. Here is "soccer land", very difficult to discuss football, especially since the NFL europe is gone.

That NBA-Thing is hilarious. I just wonder how they still can throw all the millions at players...

 

[Merckx index]

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/nfl--b...to-nfl.html;_ylt=ApEtI2rBp_WiJh7w4e14IFQ5nYcB

Very interesting article on Weeden. One NFL team official thinks he could go as high as 8th, and that if he were younger, he would be third, right after Luck and RGIII. But not everyone is high on him, there are questions about his mobility. Boy, you know the NFL has changed when someone complains that Weeden is only good as a pocket passer! Cam Newton has spoiled a lot of offensive coordinators! All of a sudden QBs are supposed to be able to shed pass rushers and run down field. Yet Brady and Manning are not in that mold, and neither was Marino.

But one point definitely in his favor is his maturity. You don’t have to guess about whether he will work hard, avoid distractions, etc. Anyone who endured all those long bus rides in minor league baseball (remember how MJ bought his team a new bus, because he couldn’t stand riding in the old one?) will not act like a spoiled brat in NFL training camp. I agree with Alpe that someone should take a chance on this guy.

Another interesting point that hadn’t occurred to me: Weeden is the only QB in the draft (in the nation, for that matter) who led his team to victories over Luck, Griffin and Tannehill. That ought to count for something. I’m sure RGIII would like to forget the OSU game. While he threw for 450 yards, he had two picks and only 1 TD. It was so bad that Baylor couldn’t get into the endzone until the 4th quarter, at which point OSU had put up more than 40 pts. If you want to compare Luck and Griffin, you might want to consider that OSU was probably the best pass defense either QB faced last season. Luck did quite well, Stanford would have won if their kicker hadn’t missed a very makeable FG. Griffin moved the ball downfield well, but his inability to get into the endzone suggests maybe a problem with short passes. That would also explain why his YPA was much higher than Luck, while their completion % was very similar. The idea being Griffin is more accurate on deep throws, but Luck better on short ones. Those spider banana plays (which makes me think of Harry Belafonte).

Foxy, a question for you, Alpe, or someone else who probably knows NFL draft history better than I do. Has there ever been a no 1 pick who failed spectacularly in which it wasn’t because of character issues? Let’s define fail spectacularly as never started for an extended period of time and/or out of the league in 3-4 years. By character issues, I simply mean he didn’t put full effort/focus into his job on the field.

There have been some first round picks that probably fit this bill, but what about no. 1 picks? Or, say top 3? Akili Smith, Leaf, Russell, V. Young all had documented issues. I think Alex Smith might have come close. If Singletary hadn’t been fired, Smith would have been traded, and might have finished his career as a backup.

The new spygate:

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-s...425507.html;_ylt=AgDbNpMfJ2atCzvW.frI459DubYF

if there's a hunt of truth to this, Loomis' eavesdropping would make Bill Belichick's Spygate controversy seem quaint, like the Pats coach was a kid with two cans and some string. His tapes showed hand signals being made in full view of fans and cameras. They were illegal because the NFL said so. Loomis' actions would be illegal because the US government says so.

If it is true, Loomis should be fired not just for breaking the rules, but for general incompetence. The team was .500 during the period in which these shenanigans allegedly took place. At least Belichick was a very successful cheater.

Edit: http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2012/04/latest_allegations_wont_unseat.html

Now it’s reported that Benson plans to sue ESPN for reporting this.


Foxy: I agree with you about Freddie Solomon as a big help to Montana pre-Rice. I think he was underappreciated/underrated as a WR. Clark had great hands and an uncanny knack for getting open, but was not that fast. Solomon was, the 49ers only real deep threat until Rice came along. Also a wonderful guy off the field, very sad he died of cancer last year.

Still, he was no Jerry Rice, and if Montana was helped by having a guy like that, then so were contemporary QBs who did not enjoy quite as much success as Montana did. Marino had Duper, Theismann had Art Monk, Ken Anderson had Collinsworth, etc. Those WRs were certainly in Solomon’s class, most would feel they were better.

You are of course right that Manning has been inconsistent in the postseason. I’ve always acknowledged that. But who hasn’t been? Unitas? How about that 27-0 whitewash vs. the Browns? His final playoff game was another shutout loss. And there was that season ending blowout loss by the Rams, that put a previously undefeated Colts team out of the playoffs.

Namath? That SB win was pretty much his postseason career. Bradshaw? Generally played well in the SBs, I think you could make the argument he was better in big games than Manning. But he had some bad playoff games, like that 24-7 title game loss to the Raiders, that exposed the Steelers problems when they didn’t have their starting RBs. Bradshaw didn’t do all that much in the postseason in his early years, like the immaculate reception game and the loss to Miami in the title game that year. The Steelers were also blown out by the Raiders in the playoffs in the following year.

Fouts? Never made it to the big one, and lots of disappointments on the way. That upset in 1979 by Houston w/o Earl Campbell, the ice bowl championship game in Cincy in 1981, the Miami revenge in 1982. Did play well in some losses, like the title game vs. the Raiders in 1980.

Elway? There was more than just those three SB blowouts in the 1980s (though I'll give him a pass on the first, in 1986. The Giants had an excellent defense--came into the SB having given up a lone FG in two playoff games--and Elway played pretty well, particularly in the first half). The upset to the Steelers in 1984, the 10-6 loss to Buffalo in I think 1994, the shocking upset to Jacksonville the year before they finally broke through and won the SB.

Marino? Played poorly in his only SB, didn’t appear in a lot of other postseason games. I believe his final one to Jax was the most lopsided loss in playoff history.

It's official. Colts take Luck.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/grigso...3--nfl.html;_ylt=AoJBM4CZnAPKjevpPspHm7w5nYcB

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

Great posts Foxxy and Merckx. On the Weeden dilemma, I agree he would likely go higher in the draft if he was younger. A quote from the article you posted on Weeden:

Added a personnel executive for an NFC team: "He has a lot of arm talent, but he's not a real good foot athlete. He can throw it, but he's more of a pocket passer. If you've got a real good offensive line, he could flourish. If not, I think he'd have a hard time."

Gee, that sounds like Brady.

First pick busts that were good heads? Seattle #1 pick of 1991 (16th overall), and as Alpe pointed out, ahead of Farvre... Dan McGuire. Seattle has had plenty of other #1 picks who bombed terribly. A more recent one at another position is Aaron Curry, now with the Raiders. I could list others Seattle wiffed on.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Added a personnel executive for an NFC team: "He has a lot of arm talent, but he's not a real good foot athlete. He can throw it, but he's more of a pocket passer. If you've got a real good offensive line, he could flourish. If not, I think he'd have a hard time."

Quote from that linked yahoo article about Weeden.

...
BUT HE IS MORE OF A POCKET PASSER... Yeah you NFC-Idiot! That is what NFL teams are looking for since ever: POCKET PASSERS. Not but, boy, it IS what they are looking for. If it wasn´t a NFC guy, i´d have thought this only can come from Norv. What the hell is going on there? Do they employ guys right from the street? God dammit, give me an NFL-Job. I do whatever for 20.000$ per year... This incompetence of some NFL guys is right out frightening.
Man, they took years to finally "heal" Cunningham, Vick now seems to understand....

Anyway, 92mph fastball doesn´t sound that great. He´d be an average MLB-Pitcher (if he owns at least two more pitches), so i doubt he´s much of an above average NFL "arm talent".

BTW, no OL helps nobody, not even Cunningham running for his life and getting sacked 72 times in a season.

I guess this guy really does not know what he´s talking about. Serious.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

I think he was looking for #1 overall. Or 1-3. For that, I'd say Joey Harrington. Taken 3rd by Detroit. All the tools. Never had what it took really to make it in the NFL. Though too naive and not mentally driven enough, I wouldn't call him a head case, and he was never in trouble with the law. Plus he played for a terrible Detroit team (thanks Mike Millen!). Same with Drew Stanton.

As Foxxy notes, a lot of these other guys in college with bloated stats prove that doesn't translate into the NFL. Witness QBs in the run and shoot like Ware and Klinger. Plenty more: Bosco, Chang, Brennan for that matter.

As to Ware, that's the prefect example of Detroit's incompetence in that era. I distinctly recall when he was drafted and the Lions stated "You simply can't ignore the numbers." In hindsight, they definitely should have.

Warner vs. back ups;
While at SL, under Martz, everybody shone (Warner, Green, Bulger, even Fitzpatrick to some point).

You can add Martin to that list, even he played well in that system in his short time there, as a 3rd string QB.

@Alpe... no, no, you know more. You have better/more contact to players/coaches.

I know one ex-coach/player, who I don't have access too very often, and have another friend who worked for MaxPrep Sports, that's it (which is HS to College, not NFL). Other than that, I'm just a junkie who's been watching and reading a long time. But I will admit the sports director at the TV station where I am says I know more about football than he does. But he honestly knows some things I don't. He knows Pac-10 and WAC stuff very well off the top of his head.

Here is "soccer land", very difficult to discuss football, especially since the NFL europe is gone.

Making your knowledge all the more impressive. You're a vault of statistical knowledge with facts and figures on players from years back off the top of your head.

That NBA-Thing is hilarious. I just wonder how they still can throw all the millions at players...

Well, the NBA just negotiated a CBA with the players that dramatically shifted money to the owners. Something like 23 teams were losing money before this. Now, hard to say. Stern says the league is now turning a profit, but this was questioned by some outsiders. Ratings are down, and have been sliding for a few years with no indication of a turnaround. It's a league of egos and flash, with plenty of thugs and idiots. As far as I'm concerned the basketball season ends in March, with the NCAA. What makes it worse for the NBA is that NHL recently signed a very generous TV package, and it's ratings and attendance is up, plus they have a very good CBA for the league.

Very interesting article on Weeden. One NFL team official thinks he could go as high as 8th, and that if he were younger, he would be third, right after Luck and RGIII.

I would agree with this. But because of his age he has to be assumed to play some this year, and be the starter after that and beyond. So he needs to find the team with the right fit. That's all. Other than that, he's as ready to play as Luck or RGIII, certainly more than Tannehill or Cousins.

Reading up on the NO issue with Loomis, I'm going to guess it's completely true. I don't know if it will be litigated, due to a lack of evidence, and the time. But it's very likely true. I'll be surprised if Goddell doesn't blacklist him from the sport before the season starts. He's already suspended.

I don't disagree with what Foxxy says on the sport having a very dirty side. There's way, way too much money to pretend that isn't so. Loomis certainly wasn't the only one to try to do such a thing, nor was Belicheck with Spygate. Recall that the Broncos and Belicheat Jr (McDaniels) later had Spygate 2. And while I joke about Vanderjagt missing that Indy FG in against Pitt, considering how accurate he was, and how badly he missed, and it was at the end of his contract, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was paid handsomely to miss it. Players can't miss every key kick, drop every key pass, fumble every key play. And plenty aren't going to throw the big game at the worst time. But in the right situation, it's not only possible, but must happen at least every so often. Like doping in cycling, I don't pretend it doesn't exist, I just try to focus on the good things in the sport.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

I don't disagree with what Foxxy says on the sport having a very dirty side. There's way, way too much money to pretend that isn't so. Loomis certainly wasn't the only one to try to do such a thing, nor was Belicheck with Spygate. Recall that the Broncos and Belicheat Jr (McDaniels) later had Spygate 2. And while I joke about Vanderjagt missing that Indy FG in against Pitt, considering how accurate he was, and how badly he missed, and it was at the end of his contract, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he was paid handsomely to miss it. Players can't miss every key kick, drop every key pass, fumble every key play. And plenty aren't going to throw the big game at the worst time. But in the right situation, it's not only possible, but must happen at least every so often. Like doping in cycling, I don't pretend it doesn't exist, I just try to focus on the good things in the sport.

Well put. I too try to focus on the good things about the sport. At least it's not like the WWF where it's just a rigged act and, therefore, is not real.

Related to the latest Saints news, I'll say this again that I do not see how any team/player can feel 100% completely satisfied with an accomplishment that is aided by cheating in any form. That includes spygate, bounties, this latest incident, and any other form of cheating imaginable. Sucks for those players/teams who benefited from cheating... they will never know the real joy of winning the right way.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

More Props for RG3

Saw RG3 and Luck get interviewed with Michael Irvin on the NFL network today. Irvin asked both, "As you get ready to go up on stage when your selection is announced, what will be going through your mind?" RG answered second after Luck, but had the best response. He said he will be thinking of all the people since middle school who have helped him develop as a player.