acoggan said:I'm sure that many here will attempt to misconstrue this comment, but nonetheless I have to point out that it takes a wind speed of 3.4-5.4 m/s to cause even light flags to extend (I assume that you were referring to the flags in that picture):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beaufort_scale#The_modern_scale
This stage is as good as any for using the watts/kg equation:
- It was a time trial. 100% effort all the time. No drafting. Takes away Brunyeel's objections in the NYT piece.
- The wind seemed to be calm, flags not moving in the pics.
- The route was surrounded by people all the way, shielding the riders from possible wind.
- It's a switchback climb, so headwind one section would become tailwind on the next:
http://autobus.cyclingnews.com/tour04.php?id=photos/2004/tour04/stage16/alpe_d_huez_07_21_04
And we have lots of direct and anecdotal evidence that Armstrong was juiced up: Landis emails, other US Postal teammates reporting doping in the team. Riders who lost over a minute to Armstrong (Ullrich, Kloden) implicated in blood doping scandals of their own.
So if the calculation comes out to 6.5 watts/kg, it's fair to assume that this number is unachievable when riding clean. The Hkr limit of 50% was in effect in 2004 - but we know riders doped right up to it. Compared to Armstrong's 2009 TdF Hkr of around 43%, the riders of that era had 10% more red blood cells helping carry oxygen. Translate that directly to VO2Max, and you get a figure of less than 6 watts/kg that's achievable without doping.
I am not sure why anyone wants to argue that the past winners were clean. Too many of them have fallen via doping scandals to use even the majority rule. And as we know that getting caught is a professional accident, one should be predisposed to thinking that the top times are all from dopers. NYT has to throw the usual caveats to appear objective given no absolute proof, but the preponderance of the evidence is turning even the mainstream press into accepting the dirty past of cycling.
This paradigm shift is important to have the public at large to accept that the "witch hunt" as referred to by Armstrong is a justified use of taxpayers' money. There's no stopping this train now and perhaps for the first time ever, Brynueel and Armstrong don't have the sound bites that resonate any longer.