Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[python]

Re:

Windy women's normal distance race in Östersund yesterday. Many struggled with their shooting, badly, and the race was a bit too much of a lottery to my liking. Dahlmeier won in the end, with two missed shots and good skiing. Bescond second and Jurkevitch surprise-podiumed.

Difficult to say where the faves are at n relation to one another. All seemed to be skiing quite well.

any idea what was the actual wind speed ? i looked at the official results and stats - all sorts of numbers there - except the weather. logically, i'd think that the sport fed in which the shooting accuracy is sensitive to wind should attempt to monitor it, no ?...or perhaps i was not looking in the right files ?

looking forward to the men's 20k k later today and the lillehammer fis minitour.

kalla was diagnosed with an arrhythmia...both stina and calle will race 3 distances. i see both on the eventual podium. still not clear if ustiugov will race...the finns strangely are not filling their quota i expect a good overall showing from pelle (top 10 at least) and mussy (also top 10). legkov, i have a hunch, will not be in lillehammer given his poor showing last weekend. vyleg may surprize b/c his poor showing last week was due to
a bad fall plus i hear he's improved his sprint (still to be shown). hellner is a dark horse. but he's healthy at least.
and of course harvey wanted to start the season with a bang. curiously, i do not see babikov among the canadian team ? too old ?

 

[kingjr]

Re: Re:

Windy women's normal distance race in Östersund yesterday. Many struggled with their shooting, badly, and the race was a bit too much of a lottery to my liking. Dahlmeier won in the end, with two missed shots and good skiing. Bescond second and Jurkevitch surprise-podiumed.

Difficult to say where the faves are at n relation to one another. All seemed to be skiing quite well.

any idea what was the actual wind speed ? i looked at the official results and stats - all sorts of numbers there - except the weather. logically, i'd think that the sport fed in which the shooting accuracy is sensitive to wind should attempt to monitor it, no ?...or perhaps i was not looking in the right files ?

http://ibu.blob.core.windows.net/docs/1617/BT/SWRL/CP01/SWIN/BT_C82_1.1.pdf

 

[python]

Re: Re:

Windy women's normal distance race in Östersund yesterday. Many struggled with their shooting, badly, and the race was a bit too much of a lottery to my liking. Dahlmeier won in the end, with two missed shots and good skiing. Bescond second and Jurkevitch surprise-podiumed.

Difficult to say where the faves are at n relation to one another. All seemed to be skiing quite well.

any idea what was the actual wind speed ? i looked at the official results and stats - all sorts of numbers there - except the weather. logically, i'd think that the sport fed in which the shooting accuracy is sensitive to wind should attempt to monitor it, no ?...or perhaps i was not looking in the right files ?

http://ibu.blob.core.windows.net/docs/1617/BT/SWRL/CP01/SWIN/BT_C82_1.1.pdf

thanx..that 3 m/s is about 11 km/h. indeed windy. but looking at the fluttering hair and the elements of clothing, the gusts seemed double that.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

yep, i confused the slovak with a slovenian. but who doesn't

Even Slovakian and Slovenian don't know who is who.

You would find a lot people who don't confuse these two nations.

Not to go completely off topic, but I am not sure you are correct on that.

That I am not correct on what?

Thanks for the answer. Ok than, so Slovenian and Slovakian don't know that they are Slovenian and Slovakian and dozens of milions of people who don't confuse those two countries are not lot of people anymore. Ignorant?

 

[BullsFan22]

Re: Re:

yep, i confused the slovak with a slovenian. but who doesn't

Even Slovakian and Slovenian don't know who is who.

You would find a lot people who don't confuse these two nations.

Not to go completely off topic, but I am not sure you are correct on that.

That I am not correct on what?

Thanks for the answer. Ok than, so Slovenian and Slovakian don't know that they are Slovenian and Slovakian and dozens of milions of people who don't confuse those two countries are not lot of people anymore. Ignorant?

That you are not correct when you say that 'even Slovakian and Slovenians don't know who is who. Unless that was a joke on your part? You are Czech or Slovak? Do you guys get confused on who is who? If not, then really there should be no confusion between who is Slovakian and who is Slovenian, there is a bigger difference between Slovaks and Slovenes than Czech's and Slovaks. You ought to know that.

BTW, were you calling me 'ignorant' for not responding, or what's the deal?

 

[meat puppet]

wind during the östersund women's race was very gusty and uneven. Gusts double the base wind is not a bad guess, I think. Definitely a lot more than 3m/s.

The men's race was, well, quite predictable in the end. Finns broke a dry spell of two years without points, ie a top 40 position, though.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

wind during the östersund women's race was very gusty and uneven. Gusts double the base wind is not a bad guess, I think. Definitely a lot more than 3m/s.

The men's race was, well, quite predictable in the end. Finns broke a dry spell of two years without points, ie a top 40 position, though.

In the sense that positions 1 and 2 could have been predicted beforehand yes, but a good competition nonetheless. Boe is not far off Fourcade. In the sprint on saturday I suspect the roles may be reversed.

I also didn't know that the finnish male biathletes had not gained points for two years! but kudos to Gronman for shooting 19/20. On average the biathletes hit 14.7 (73.4%) of the 20 targets in today's competition with only three athletes missing only 1 shot.

 

[meat puppet]

Yeah, no complaints about the race, I just wish fourcade wins at least a bit less often.

 

[python]

the lillehammer quals for the women is over. here's the results
http://medias2.fis-ski.com/pdf/2017/CC/2239/2017CC2239RL.pdf

the 1st striking element is how dense, with mere tenths of seconds they are separated. usually it's the other way around compared to men...not all that many surprises. stina made it easily. justyna too , as was the muscle woman

the men quals are still going on as i type. we do have a surprise - the winner will be calle. klaebo is a fraction of a second behind. ustiugov is comfortable 6th but a whole 7 sec behind. in general, as i said above the gaps btwn the men are huge. must be a different approach to waxing...not clear if anyone was using just doublepoling.

pelle, sundby, northug and vyleg and hellner seem to have made it into the final. not cologna. a relatively slow performance from a couple of strong norges...

tune to the nrk or eurosport for the finals at 12 cet...

 

[jsem94]

CALLE!

Sad that both Golberg and Nilsson broke their poles the way they did...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yes, the annoying thing is that this time around Fourcade left an opportunity for the others but none were able to take it.

From watching the Lillehammer sprints I'm ambivalent. I will always enjoy seeing Heidi win, but the fact she's had to get good at sprinting is symptomatic of everything I find frustrating about the balance of races in the World Cup. They have a balance of "sprint" and "distance" but "distance" encompasses everything from 5k to 30k for women and 5k to 50k for men. Saying you balance "sprint" and "distance" means sweet FA if several of the distance races aren't long enough to put pressure on the sprint specialists; at the same time the main way the FIS has tried to address this is, rather than having a better mix of distance races, just putting a bucketload of WC points on the stage races ensuring distance specialists have an easy advantage.

I get the point that why would you want to be a distance specialist when every race in the last couple of years is just seeing how much TJ beats you by, whereas taking your chance in the lottery of the sprint you can get some surprise results, but continuing to make it so that real distance is marginalized and sprints are maximized will only exacerbate that problem as, with few real specialists, of course the distance races will become predictable.

At the same time, yay, Heidi Weng outsprinted Maiken Caspersen Falla over the final 100m, I didn't expect that!

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

Yes, the annoying thing is that this time around Fourcade left an opportunity for the others but none were able to take it.

From watching the Lillehammer sprints I'm ambivalent. I will always enjoy seeing Heidi win, but the fact she's had to get good at sprinting is symptomatic of everything I find frustrating about the balance of races in the World Cup. They have a balance of "sprint" and "distance" but "distance" encompasses everything from 5k to 30k for women and 5k to 50k for men. Saying you balance "sprint" and "distance" means sweet FA if several of the distance races aren't long enough to put pressure on the sprint specialists; at the same time the main way the FIS has tried to address this is, rather than having a better mix of distance races, just putting a bucketload of WC points on the stage races ensuring distance specialists have an easy advantage.

I get the point that why would you want to be a distance specialist when every race in the last couple of years is just seeing how much TJ beats you by, whereas taking your chance in the lottery of the sprint you can get some surprise results, but continuing to make it so that real distance is marginalized and sprints are maximized will only exacerbate that problem as, with few real specialists, of course the distance races will become predictable.

At the same time, yay, Heidi Weng outsprinted Maiken Caspersen Falla over the final 100m, I didn't expect that!

Interesting thoughts on specialists, distances, etc. I will just say that since the beginning of WC sprints, the men's tour has produced more 'specialist' sprinters than the women. Yes, you'll obviously have women that are much more capable over shorter/explosive distances, but it's not unusual to see Nilsson, for example, contending for the top 10 in a distance race, be it a regular WC or a tour event. Bjoergen started off her career as someone that primarily did sprints, and occasional shorter races and relays, but it wasn't until she was 23/24 she started performing in distance races on a regular basis. Petra Majdic is another good example.

In the men's, those that start out as sprint specialists will most likely stay as sprinters. Joensson, Brandsdal, Kriukov, Hattestad, etc, burst on the scene as sprinters, even though these guys have had forays in the top 30 in distance races. Petukhov is an interesting case because he was an excellent distance skier as a junior and even into his U23 years, but less than optimal training and various illnesses (from what I have read) set him back and he rebounded and he was able to actually become a much better sprinter, but it took him a few years to get back into the thick of it.

There are lots of interesting cases, but for starters, that's what I wanted to give. The tours are dominated by distance skiers or all-rounders, and that can change with the format, especially taking away the Alpe Cermis. It's also worth nothing that you'll often see sprinters performing well in distance races in the beginning of the season. I've seen that with Hetland, Svartedal, Joensson, Hattestad...Though Hetland and Svartedal were definitely capable of contending in distance races and the tour de ski (Hetland was top 10 in the inaugural TDS in 2007).

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Yes, there's definitely a much better split of specialists in different distances among the men, but then the distance races for the men are often much longer, so much more conducive to that because the differences in skillset required are more pronounced between the sprint distances and the longest races, so that it would be just as weird to see Pellegrino at the front end of a distance race as it would be to see Maurice Manificat in a sprint final (I know that's happened, but that was indeed a weird event). When the men do 15k the women do 10k, but when the men double that to 30k or even, as in Toblach-Cortina, 35k, the women only go to 15k, which makes the occasional 30ks stand out massively. As a result, the number of races that somebody who specialises as a sprinter but can do well over relatively short distance races, such as Nilsson, can compete for the win in is MUCH bigger than the number of races that somebody who specialises in longer distance races and isn't capable in the sprint in. Yes, the tours pay a huge amount of points, but that only redresses the balance in terms of the World Cup points, not in terms of the balance of the calendar - we see 5k races being considered part of the "distance" cup purely by process of elimination. Of course the sprint specialists can be competitive there.

I will say that the balance of sprint and "distance" is much better this season - of 28 individual World Cup races, only 9 are sprints, which at approx 1/3 of the calendar is much more like what I would hope for than 2013-14 when they accounted for 1/2. However, of the remaining 19, the women only have 5 races over 10km in length (15k free at Davos, 15k skiathlon at La Clusaz, 15k free mass start at Falun, 15k skiathlon at Pyeongchang and 30k at Holmenkollen) - plus, inexplicably, there are three "distance" races of only 5k in length, and one of just 3 (THREE) kilometres. So, for those keeping score, any even remotely capable sprinter has at least 13 races they can be competitive in, while a pure distance skier has 5 tipped in their favour. Unfortunately also, there are only two relays, yet there are two Team Sprints, which is two too many as that format needs a swift euthanasia.

The issue is that the more the calendar is balanced like this, the more we will produce sprint specialists and the fewer distance specialists will be created, creating new problems. The men have the issue of too many skiers who aren't distance specialists looking to hang on in there without adding anything to the race, running the risk of those much-loathed 50k mass starts that wind up in a sprint, and the women have the issue of too few skiers who are truly specialised over distance, meaning the races play out the same way every time, killing any suspense and making them a less interesting visual spectacle than the sprints, due to elements of chance.

But hey, to be honest, I make these points most winters, and I'm sure I'll make them again by the time the season's over. My usual examples - Randall for a powerhouse sprinter with some versatility and Steira for a proper distance racer - may have retired, but my position (that I think it's a travesty that the sport at present makes it more attractive to an aspiring skier to want to ape Kikkan's skillset and style than to ape Kristin's) remains unaltered. And this year's calendar is better than the last couple. I'm just ambivalent about today because I really like Heidi and want to see her do well, but one of the reasons I liked her in the first place was because she was a distance-biased prospect who was always close but not quite breaking through past the usual suspects.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

Yes, there's definitely a much better split of specialists in different distances among the men, but then the distance races for the men are often much longer, so much more conducive to that because the differences in skillset required are more pronounced between the sprint distances and the longest races, so that it would be just as weird to see Pellegrino at the front end of a distance race as it would be to see Maurice Manificat in a sprint final (I know that's happened, but that was indeed a weird event). When the men do 15k the women do 10k, but when the men double that to 30k or even, as in Toblach-Cortina, 35k, the women only go to 15k, which makes the occasional 30ks stand out massively. As a result, the number of races that somebody who specialises as a sprinter but can do well over relatively short distance races, such as Nilsson, can compete for the win in is MUCH bigger than the number of races that somebody who specialises in longer distance races and isn't capable in the sprint in. Yes, the tours pay a huge amount of points, but that only redresses the balance in terms of the World Cup points, not in terms of the balance of the calendar - we see 5k races being considered part of the "distance" cup purely by process of elimination. Of course the sprint specialists can be competitive there.

I will say that the balance of sprint and "distance" is much better this season - of 28 individual World Cup races, only 9 are sprints, which at approx 1/3 of the calendar is much more like what I would hope for than 2013-14 when they accounted for 1/2. However, of the remaining 19, the women only have 5 races over 10km in length (15k free at Davos, 15k skiathlon at La Clusaz, 15k free mass start at Falun, 15k skiathlon at Pyeongchang and 30k at Holmenkollen) - plus, inexplicably, there are three "distance" races of only 5k in length, and one of just 3 (THREE) kilometres. So, for those keeping score, any even remotely capable sprinter has at least 13 races they can be competitive in, while a pure distance skier has 5 tipped in their favour. Unfortunately also, there are only two relays, yet there are two Team Sprints, which is two too many as that format needs a swift euthanasia.

The issue is that the more the calendar is balanced like this, the more we will produce sprint specialists and the fewer distance specialists will be created, creating new problems. The men have the issue of too many skiers who aren't distance specialists looking to hang on in there without adding anything to the race, running the risk of those much-loathed 50k mass starts that wind up in a sprint, and the women have the issue of too few skiers who are truly specialised over distance, meaning the races play out the same way every time, killing any suspense and making them a less interesting visual spectacle than the sprints, due to elements of chance.

But hey, to be honest, I make these points most winters, and I'm sure I'll make them again by the time the season's over. My usual examples - Randall for a powerhouse sprinter with some versatility and Steira for a proper distance racer - may have retired, but my position (that I think it's a travesty that the sport at present makes it more attractive to an aspiring skier to want to ape Kikkan's skillset and style than to ape Kristin's) remains unaltered. And this year's calendar is better than the last couple. I'm just ambivalent about today because I really like Heidi and want to see her do well, but one of the reasons I liked her in the first place was because she was a distance-biased prospect who was always close but not quite breaking through past the usual suspects.

Weng is one of my favorites. As you probably have noticed, I don't usually cheer for Norwegians, but I like Weng and she is very sympathetic. Her skiing is also very aggressive and she doesn't hold back very often. Actually that's one of the nice things about women's races, they don't mess around that often. Yes they race shorter distances and yes the field isn't as deep as the men's, but there is no mucking around usually and Weng is a perfect example. She was always going to do well. Her background is mountain (fell) running and with her size she was always going to be a great distance skier, but she's as explosive as ever now and is translating that into sprints. She's had great success sprinting at the end of distance races, due to having great capacity and natural speed, but due to her size and lack of power, wasn't able to translate that to pure sprint races. But with that capacity that she has, the further she goes in sprint heats, the better she'll get, because the pure sprinters won't have the endurance and will lose a bit of their pace.

This might be a good opportunity for her. Bjoergen isn't as sharp, yet, Johaug is obviously out, and so far Oestberg isn't as sparky as last year. Falla is a sprinter who can get points in distance races, but not enough to challenge Weng. Same too Nilsson.

 

[python]

well, if stina in an hour will repeat what calle and markus just did did, i will drink a glass of red in stead of my morning coffee

hardly anyone seeing halfvarsson in the shape he currently is in, doubted he can win the 10k, but hellner being 2nd in a fraction of a second was a treat.

i must admit i also enjoyed how ustiugov was taking back a second after second with each time check to eventually shove krogh and sundby off the podium. serhey will be a huge threat to all norges this season...i recall reading a legkov answer when he was asked about the ustiugov prospects for the season, he said, 'buy-buy northug. ustiugov is every bit as a good at everything petter is but more talented'. i predicted this prodigy almost 4 years ago on this very forum..

not to gloat, the gaps are small and there is absolutely no reason to underestimate the always powerful norge machine. but at the risk of being cheeky i will say one thing - it seems when the breathing issues get spread around (and treated) evenly, we see a different kind of a competition. at least among the men... :surprised:

 

[John de Savage]

The swedes have new coaches this season.

Women: Norwegian coach Ole Morten Iversen, the father of Emil Iversen.
Men: Ola Ravald, who coached the norwegian men's biathlon team since 2010.

Norwegian training methods seem to be working well judging by the results so far.

 

[BullsFan22]

I think Fuzzy Muzzy Musgrave needs to focus on distance more now. He seems to have stalled, significantly, in sprints since Sochi. Probably is doing more volume. It'll be interesting to see what he does tomorrow in the classic pursuit. Also interested to see how he does in next weekends skate sprint, along with Young. Surprised a bit not to see Young so far this year. I know he is a better skate skier, but still, the hard packed conditions would have suited him well.

Let's not forget that Calle missed most of last season due to illness. It's impressive what he is doing so far. The only worry is that he's in top shape way too early. Hellner didn't have any significant results last year until the last few weeks, especially so in the Tour of Canada. Now he's started on opposite side of the spectrum, very well. I just hope they aren't peaking too early.

Despite no podium, the Norwegians are right there. I wouldn't read too much into the 'breathing' and 'asthma meds.' Until they consistently miss the podium and don't have anyone inside the top 10-15, then we can talk about it, but this is good to see Norwegians already out of the podium. Last year in Lillehammer, it was 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 for Norway and Sundby had no problems winning. I am sure they'll get their breathing back.

Ustiugov is already looking good. He didn't start the season all that great last year, but his split times today were getting better and better as the race wore on. Fastest finish of the day, and when you see someone continuously pick people off in these interval starts, it's a sign that skier is in good shape.

Tomorrow will be interesting. Is Halfvarsson's lead too big to catch? I suspect it is, particularly in the shape he is in. The chase behind will be fascinating. Will Ustiugov try to keep ahead of them the entire way, or will he go easy the first few km's, let them catch him, settle in, and then brace himself for the inevitable sprint to the line? He'll be favored if it comes down to that. The other Russians are further back than I would have liked to see. Vylegzhanin didn't have a great start last year, and he's not having one this year. Bessmertnykh, I expect a lot from him tomorrow, but unfortunately he is not that good at skating, and he lost a lot of time today. I expect all of them to move up quite a bit, but they are obviously too far back to seriously contend. What will Hellner do tomorrow? What about Harvey? Can Musgrave stick with the group?

 

[python]

john, ask chernusov about his norwegian coaching

...calle's 28 sec profit to ustiogov is a lot. but it is a 15 k classic, which should take 40 +/- mins. that is, the advantage is roughly 2-2.5%. this does not look cosmic if the snow conditions, weather, waxing errors and even some bad luck decide to interfere.

a very interesting race will almost certainly happen behind, where, being only 15 sec +/- seconds off, krogh, klaebo, sundby and iversen will no doubt organize a mad chase. i give it an 80% chance they will 'swallow' serhey.
that's where his tactic will be important ! if i were him, i would race the 1st 2-3 km at a slightly faster than full throttle, attempting to shrink the front gap and increase the gap to the norge. if the feedback favours the tactic, i'd commit to a 100% racing alone. if otoh, the norge chase is too furious, i'd relax my horses, let them catch up and sit on them with hellner and harvey. i am convinced that's how vyleg would race. then, once the last 100 m approach, dash. only harvey from that group imo could match him in a an all-out 7-10 sec acceleration. we'll see.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

Even Slovakian and Slovenian don't know who is who.

You would find a lot people who don't confuse these two nations.

Not to go completely off topic, but I am not sure you are correct on that.

That I am not correct on what?

Thanks for the answer. Ok than, so Slovenian and Slovakian don't know that they are Slovenian and Slovakian and dozens of milions of people who don't confuse those two countries are not lot of people anymore. Ignorant?

That you are not correct when you say that 'even Slovakian and Slovenians don't know who is who. Unless that was a joke on your part? You are Czech or Slovak? Do you guys get confused on who is who? If not, then really there should be no confusion between who is Slovakian and who is Slovenian, there is a bigger difference between Slovaks and Slovenes than Czech's and Slovaks. You ought to know that.

BTW, were you calling me 'ignorant' for not responding, or what's the deal?

That was of course joke. Never would occure to me that someone can seriously believe that members of certain nation don't know what nation they belong to. Of course Czechs and Slovaks don't confuse themselves. They are two different nations, gee.

Ignorant seems to me that there are lot of people (if it's really true) who confuse Slovenians and Slovaks and even consider that funny mistake. Can you imagine some, say, German confusing, say, Norges and Swedes, or French and Italian, considering it normal and funny? Hardly I can imagine that.

 

[portugal11]

Another perfect performance by fourcade. This man will be the goat in 3 years

 

[Cance > TheRest]

The men's competitions are hardly worth watching anymore.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

john, ask chernusov about his norwegian coaching

...calle's 28 sec profit to ustiogov is a lot. but it is a 15 k classic, which should take 40 +/- mins. that is, the advantage is roughly 2-2.5%. this does not look cosmic if the snow conditions, weather, waxing errors and even some bad luck decide to interfere.

a very interesting race will almost certainly happen behind, where, being only 15 sec +/- seconds off, krogh, klaebo, sundby and iversen will no doubt organize a mad chase. i give it an 80% chance they will 'swallow' serhey.
that's where his tactic will be important ! if i were him, i would race the 1st 2-3 km at a slightly faster than full throttle, attempting to shrink the front gap and increase the gap to the norge. if the feedback favours the tactic, i'd commit to a 100% racing alone. if otoh, the norge chase is too furious, i'd relax my horses, let them catch up and sit on them with hellner and harvey. i am convinced that's how vyleg would race. then, once the last 100 m approach, dash. only harvey from that group imo could match him in a an all-out 7-10 sec acceleration. we'll see.

Sundby will be the one doing most of the work in that chasing group, no doubt about that. That means that they will be chasing from the start, so Ustiugov needs to be smart. What you said, that's what I think is the most likely tactic he'll use. If he's feeling good, he should go hard the first couple km's. If they close on him, then he should probably slow it down and let them come and recover and sit in as long as he can and then pounce. If they are not closing quickly on him, then he has to do his own race and be consistent. Considering the shape Calle is in, I suspect he won't be messing around at the front, so Ustiugov will be in no-mans land, but closer to the group than Calle, which is why I think Sergey will ease up and wait. Then again, he's a professional and I am sure he knows what's best for him, and his coaches will sit through it and give him advice.

What about our good friend Petter? Seems kind of a waste to have come to Lillehammer to race. What will he do tomorrow? Just sit in as he normally does and hope that the group he is with drags him as far forward as possible?

 

[kingjr]

Re: Re:

That was of course joke. Never would occure to me that someone can seriously believe that members of certain nation don't know what nation they belong to. Of course Czechs and Slovaks don't confuse themselves. They are two different nations, gee.

Ignorant seems to me that there are lot of people (if it's really true) who confuse Slovenians and Slovaks and even consider that funny mistake. Can you imagine some, say, German confusing, say, Norges and Swedes, or French and Italian, considering it normal and funny? Hardly I can imagine that.

If the names of the countries you mentioned were very similar, of course it would be funny. This is nothing to be upset about, really.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

That was of course joke. Never would occure to me that someone can seriously believe that members of certain nation don't know what nation they belong to. Of course Czechs and Slovaks don't confuse themselves. They are two different nations, gee.

Ignorant seems to me that there are lot of people (if it's really true) who confuse Slovenians and Slovaks and even consider that funny mistake. Can you imagine some, say, German confusing, say, Norges and Swedes, or French and Italian, considering it normal and funny? Hardly I can imagine that.

If the names of the countries you mentioned were very similar, of course it would be funny. This is nothing to be upset about, really.

That's exactly the ignorance I'm talking about. Imagine someone calling funny mistaking Swiss and Sweden. Fnny, huh?

This "confusing similar sounding countries is funny" premise sounds strange, anyway. Imagine that: you've said Slovenia ant thought Slovenia? Hahahaha...

 

[python]

Re: Re:

john, ask chernusov about his norwegian coaching

...calle's 28 sec profit to ustiogov is a lot. but it is a 15 k classic, which should take 40 +/- mins. that is, the advantage is roughly 2-2.5%. this does not look cosmic if the snow conditions, weather, waxing errors and even some bad luck decide to interfere.

a very interesting race will almost certainly happen behind, where, being only 15 sec +/- seconds off, krogh, klaebo, sundby and iversen will no doubt organize a mad chase. i give it an 80% chance they will 'swallow' serhey.
that's where his tactic will be important ! if i were him, i would race the 1st 2-3 km at a slightly faster than full throttle, attempting to shrink the front gap and increase the gap to the norge. if the feedback favours the tactic, i'd commit to a 100% racing alone. if otoh, the norge chase is too furious, i'd relax my horses, let them catch up and sit on them with hellner and harvey. i am convinced that's how vyleg would race. then, once the last 100 m approach, dash. only harvey from that group imo could match him in a an all-out 7-10 sec acceleration. we'll see.

Sundby will be the one doing most of the work in that chasing group, no doubt about that. That means that they will be chasing from the start, so Ustiugov needs to be smart. What you said, that's what I think is the most likely tactic he'll use. If he's feeling good, he should go hard the first couple km's. If they close on him, then he should probably slow it down and let them come and recover and sit in as long as he can and then pounce. If they are not closing quickly on him, then he has to do his own race and be consistent. Considering the shape Calle is in, I suspect he won't be messing around at the front, so Ustiugov will be in no-mans land, but closer to the group than Calle, which is why I think Sergey will ease up and wait. Then again, he's a professional and I am sure he knows what's best for him, and his coaches will sit through it and give him advice.

What about our good friend Petter? Seems kind of a waste to have come to Lillehammer to race. What will he do tomorrow? Just sit in as he normally does and hope that the group he is with drags him as far forward as possible?

guess what recent classic race comes to mind of about the same length while trying to project the tomorrow ? yep, the tour of canada, stage 2...

of course there was no calle there and it was a mass start in a city park, but roughly the same actors raced as if it was a pursuit.

then and there ustiougov raced off the front right from the start for 95% of time, almost never giving up the 1st position or even sharing it when eversen briefly stepped up. his goal was simply to distance sundby b/c he was fed the splits showing the chasing sundby's growing gaps. it was a boltsy performance indicative of his tactical acumen. he also showed an impressive double polling stemming from his powerful back which was largely responsible for being able to distance sundby that day. while he was passed by iversen and petter in the last 1.5 km, he held and increased the gap to sundby. iirc, it was 20+ sec at the finish.

what i am trying to say is that calle is probably safe, but the race behind is going to be very hot with ustiugov remembering how he raced in canada this year.