Re: Re:
Yes, however that was a much different course and the conditions were much different-blustery, blowing snow, narrow course, and a mass start. Yes, he went from the start, but you also have to take in consideration that Sundby fell in that race.
python said:guess what recent classic race comes to mind of about the same length while trying to project the tomorrow ? yep, the tour of canada, stage 2...BullsFan22 said:python said:john, ask chernusov about his norwegian coaching
...calle's 28 sec profit to ustiogov is a lot. but it is a 15 k classic, which should take 40 +/- mins. that is, the advantage is roughly 2-2.5%. this does not look cosmic if the snow conditions, weather, waxing errors and even some bad luck decide to interfere.
a very interesting race will almost certainly happen behind, where, being only 15 sec +/- seconds off, krogh, klaebo, sundby and iversen will no doubt organize a mad chase. i give it an 80% chance they will 'swallow' serhey.
that's where his tactic will be important ! if i were him, i would race the 1st 2-3 km at a slightly faster than full throttle, attempting to shrink the front gap and increase the gap to the norge. if the feedback favours the tactic, i'd commit to a 100% racing alone. if otoh, the norge chase is too furious, i'd relax my horses, let them catch up and sit on them with hellner and harvey. i am convinced that's how vyleg would race. then, once the last 100 m approach, dash. only harvey from that group imo could match him in a an all-out 7-10 sec acceleration. we'll see.
Sundby will be the one doing most of the work in that chasing group, no doubt about that. That means that they will be chasing from the start, so Ustiugov needs to be smart. What you said, that's what I think is the most likely tactic he'll use. If he's feeling good, he should go hard the first couple km's. If they close on him, then he should probably slow it down and let them come and recover and sit in as long as he can and then pounce. If they are not closing quickly on him, then he has to do his own race and be consistent. Considering the shape Calle is in, I suspect he won't be messing around at the front, so Ustiugov will be in no-mans land, but closer to the group than Calle, which is why I think Sergey will ease up and wait. Then again, he's a professional and I am sure he knows what's best for him, and his coaches will sit through it and give him advice.
What about our good friend Petter? Seems kind of a waste to have come to Lillehammer to race. What will he do tomorrow? Just sit in as he normally does and hope that the group he is with drags him as far forward as possible?
of course there was no calle there and it was a mass start in a city park, but roughly the same actors raced as if it was a pursuit.
then and there ustiougov raced off the front right from the start for 95% of time, almost never giving up the 1st position or even sharing it when eversen briefly stepped up. his goal was simply to distance sundby b/c he was fed the splits showing the chasing sundby's growing gaps. it was a boltsy performance indicative of his tactical acumen. he also showed an impressive double polling stemming from his powerful back which was largely responsible for being able to distance sundby that day. while he was passed by iversen and petter in the last 1.5 km, he held and increased the gap to sundby. iirc, it was 20+ sec at the finish.
what i am trying to say is that calle is probably safe, but the race behind is going to be very hot with ustiugov remembering how he raced in canada this year.
Yes, however that was a much different course and the conditions were much different-blustery, blowing snow, narrow course, and a mass start. Yes, he went from the start, but you also have to take in consideration that Sundby fell in that race.
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