Nordic Skiing/Biathlon Thread

[roundabout]

Fourcade is 28 and currently 41 wins behind. It's not that unrealistic that he can overtake Björndalen in this statistic.

For reference, at the end of 2002 season Björndalen 'only' had 27 WC wins.

 

[Kokoso]

Fourcade is 28 and currently 41 wins behind. It's not that unrealistic that he can overtake Björndalen in this statistic.

For reference, at the end of 2002 season Björndalen 'only' had 27 WC wins.

I didn't mean that it's unrealistic, that's likely misunderstading. I mean Fourcade strikes me as more "normal" man, who won't compete to his fourties, at least not with same verve.

 

[roundabout]

Yeah, I agree with you on that. Although at the rate that he is winning now he probably would not need to compete for much longer than the next 6-7 years.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Depends on motivation. Remember, Magdalena Forsberg's records for World Cup wins are less than half OEB's, and Magdalena Neuner retired 8 short of that and 24 short of the record for podiums, yet Forsberg hadn't even started her biathlon career at the age Neuner retired. Neuner's still under 30 and has been gone for four years. Bjørndalen's records are a long way off, the real question will be whether Martin gets bored before he gets there I think, because just the same as you, I don't see him as the kind of bloody-minded competitor that will stay on into his 40s like OEB. Also, Martin's partner is not on the biathlon circuit like Ole's was (and now is) so he's got more of a balance of life away from the circuit. He rooms with his brother iirc and has done since he started on the World Cup, when Simon retires (or indeed drops from the team, there are a lot of strong young Frenchmen coming through the system and while he still has his days, he's not as strong as he used to be and is now the wrong side of 30) will that affect his mindset as well?

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re: Re:

At their best OEB wins hands down for me, he was clearly a much faster skier, when Fourcade has entered XC races he hasn't pulled up any trees, OEB was clearly a great XC skier as well.

I don't think you can compare skiing of them based on resulst in xc races. First of all I think it's really difficult to compare different eras in sport as all results are relative. Fourcade is racing in different era than OEB was; interesting is that since time OEB got much worse from season to season (from 1st overall to 10th overall) he stopped entering xc races at all. At that time Fourcade was yet to enter them. Another factor is we don't know how serious they were in each race - it is not their main sport os likely motivation can vary much more. Another factor are conditions in each race, without their knowledge it's impossible to compare.
Fourcade only took part in races before start of the biathlon season so he wasn't in his best shape. Regarding Bjoerndalen, I don't think anyone can take seriously EPO influenced years. Bjoerndalen entered much more races too, so his chance to succed statisticaly increases and given Bjoerndalen has his share of not very good results, like 40th, 23rd, or 18th place, that probably factor plays a role. Also OEB didn't exactly make a hole to the xc skiing world cup, he was 1st once, but most of his result in world cup are much worse. And, I think it's hard to take seriuosly EPO influenced years. Fourcade's results in world cup don't look very well, but than again he only entered two races and postion can be misleading, because he didn't have big time loss. Bjoerndalen's first two starts at world cup weren't exactly ground breaking, too.

Take your doping speculations to the clinic

 

[kingjr]

What's that second peak that OEB supposedly had anyway? Because I don't see it.

 

[Kokoso]

Re: Re:

At their best OEB wins hands down for me, he was clearly a much faster skier, when Fourcade has entered XC races he hasn't pulled up any trees, OEB was clearly a great XC skier as well.

I don't think you can compare skiing of them based on resulst in xc races. First of all I think it's really difficult to compare different eras in sport as all results are relative. Fourcade is racing in different era than OEB was; interesting is that since time OEB got much worse from season to season (from 1st overall to 10th overall) he stopped entering xc races at all. At that time Fourcade was yet to enter them. Another factor is we don't know how serious they were in each race - it is not their main sport os likely motivation can vary much more. Another factor are conditions in each race, without their knowledge it's impossible to compare.
Fourcade only took part in races before start of the biathlon season so he wasn't in his best shape. Regarding Bjoerndalen, I don't think anyone can take seriously EPO influenced years. Bjoerndalen entered much more races too, so his chance to succed statisticaly increases and given Bjoerndalen has his share of not very good results, like 40th, 23rd, or 18th place, that probably factor plays a role. Also OEB didn't exactly make a hole to the xc skiing world cup, he was 1st once, but most of his result in world cup are much worse. And, I think it's hard to take seriuosly EPO influenced years. Fourcade's results in world cup don't look very well, but than again he only entered two races and postion can be misleading, because he didn't have big time loss. Bjoerndalen's first two starts at world cup weren't exactly ground breaking, too.

Take your doping speculations to the clinic

These are no speculations, we know that back than skiers were doping.

Sorry if it offends you. You can direct your attention to the rest of the post.

 

[python]

fourcade's confidence and self control are amazing. no idea how he would have compared to oeb at his prime, but i always leave such hypotheticals to others...

anyway, an interesting 15k in davos for women..i rooted for parmakoski. felt strongly she would have had a better chance if started behind heidi and oestberg. the dozen of seconds seemed reasonable to overcome. surprised with diggins, she does not often do this well in distance, but her form for this year is amazing. chekaleva was 5th, which was not a surprise, still she must be happy after a maternity leave..

a real surprise was that the nrk did NOT stream live the xc world cup race. it does not happen often. i don't see the mens race coming up in 15 min on the schedule either. i hate eurosport, but have no other options...

 

[Kokoso]

Re:

What's that second peak that OEB supposedly had anyway? Because I don't see it.

Then bother to look GC world cup standings after 2009/10 season. In world cup GC he got worse gradually then in 2013/2014 he not only managed to stop excpeted decline, but even improved. Also look at the olympic and world champs standings; after quite poor seasons including world champs (9/10, 10/11, 11/12 and 12/13) got better at Sochi, improved in Kontiolahti 2015 and even more so last year in Oslo.

 

[kingjr]

Re: Re:

What's that second peak that OEB supposedly had anyway? Because I don't see it.

Then bother to look GC world cup standings after 2009/10 season. In world cup GC he got worse gradually then in 2013/2014 he not only managed to stop excpeted decline, but even improved. Also look at the olympic and world champs standings; after quite poor seasons including world champs (9/10, 10/11, 11/12 and 12/13) got better at Sochi, improved in Kontiolahti 2015 and even more so last year in Oslo.

He would have won gold in 2013, if it weren't for the one shot he missed, in Sochi he also missed one shot, but others failed too that day, which is the only difference. He started strong in 2010/11 but faded throughout the Season, and his accident before 11/12 is well known. He bounced back from that but was never the same skier again.

If you wonder about his performance in Kontiolahti and Oslo, please note that his shooting there was at 92,5% and 92,7% respectively, while his average for those seasons was at 85% and 84%. He's also consistently one of the fastest regarding range time and has been for years.

And for the record in Khanty and Ruhpolding his shooting was at 87,1% and 73,5% (!) respectively.

 

[kanari]

Python: NRK is not streaming because this race is on TV2 that has bought some of the rights.

 

[python]

Re:

Python: NRK is not streaming because this race is on TV2 that has bought some of the rights.

thanks. will add them to my bookmarks now...

as is my habit, i post my impressions minutes after the live race ended...well, it is unnecessary to to dwell that an athlete with several documented health problems and for which he was treated with various medications (breathing, heart and immune system) has won. won in a very hard race that takes a lot of... health to win..

as i pointed out earlier, gloeersen was right up there. a runner up. i like his skate 2 a lot !i was also right on the money with chervotkin. an amazing race from the youngster. he also was a point man for a couple of packs not having a respite. where i was dead wrong is underestimating legkov today. it seems he had not much luck today, never having a good back to save some energy. sundby was even sitting on heikkinen with 6 km to go. and matti was burning the snow literally in the last lap. legkov should have had a podium... still it is good to see he's back and i hope he'll be in top shape for the tds.

manificat was slightly disappointing. cologna looked very strong towards the end. hellner and harvey, though finished just outside top 10, did not impress. the course was particularly suiting marcus.

mussy did well but he was a lucky bastard sucking on very good skis all day, particularly on legkov.

overall, i thought the race was exciting

 

[BullsFan22]

Anything I have to write about the winner of the men's race I'll just reserve for the clinic. Great race from Heikkinen and solid from Legkov, but I think he could have made the podium if he'd had somebody to work with. He was essentially doing the bulk of the work anytime he was with someone. Disappointing for Manificat, but he isn't in great shape right now and he started a little to fast for my liking. Parisse (a young talented Frenchmen) had a good race and it's nice to see the French getting some young talents coming through the last couple seasons.

The Davos individual races (be it 10, 15, or 30) will always produce trains of skiers. It's almost like a mass start out there, with so many groups forming, particularly when it's 5km for a loop. Thankfully it was no less than 5, because who knows how congested it would have been there. I've skied there before (when it was colder and much more snow) and the tracks are fairly old school. Lot's of narrow sections, lot's of short/steep punchy climbs, some technical descents and a fast last couple K's. Obviously having fast skis is a bonus anywhere for everyone, but at Davos it is especially an advantage and as I mentioned, the close racing and groups forming, if you can get into the right group of skiers and catch a ride and work well together, it helps tremendously. Sundby, Heikkinen, Gloersen, all benefitted from being in the right groups, but Musgrave was probably the most 'fortunate.' He skied with Legkov and then with Sundby and really just wheelsucked his way to a 15th. He's really improved his technique and his tactics this year, so that was a well earned result, despite or in spite of the wheelsucking.

Hellner seemed like a totally different skier to the one we saw last weekend. Burman (great young talent, U23 world champ last year) had a blinder of a race. The race of his life i'd say to finish 6th. Chervotkin looked pretty gassed for much of the race, and a bit deceptive. He finished 7th. Hopefully the Russians don't overtrain him and he keeps improving. He'll be a real threat for years to come, particularly in skate races (5th or 6th last year in Nove Mesto and absolutely dominated the world juniors a couple years ago).

 

[BullsFan22]

Oh, and another thing, quite surprising to hear both Posy Musgrave (Andrew's sister) and Patrick Winterton (former British Olympian) on Eurosport being 'surprised' by Chervotkin. Something along the lines of 'unusual names' came about, plus quite few murmurs about Sochi results (to be expected). Not sure why it was a shocker to see Chervotkin doing so well. As I've mentioned in the previous post, the guy has been one of the top guys, if not THE top guy in his age group since he was 16 and has won numerous races at the junior level, had a top 25 as a 19 year old, a 6th last year and now a 7th today. A better skater as well, so not sure how he is an 'unusual' name.

 

[kingjr]

Winterton s***s NOR c*ck, that is well known.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

Winterton is a huge Norway fanboy in everything he covers, so it's no surprise. Also, he's usually no good on younger names as his frame of references dates back a few years, so he's much better regards people who've been around several years rather than spotting people who are coming up through the ranks, and also he seems unable to ascertain age among the young athletes when they're just starting out, so if somebody has been on the World Cup very young and takes a couple of years to get their first success, he'll see that as slow development, whereas somebody from a country very deep in talent like Norway who doesn't break through to the team until later but is successful straight away, he will see as a huge breakthrough, even if they're both the same age. Posey's usually better than that when I've seen her on ES though.

Would have loved to have seen what would have happened had Musgrave and Hellner swapped start numbers, cos Musgrave got a very nice ride through the race, mainly from Heikkinen but then from Sundby, while Hellner basically spent 30k all on his lonesome. Musgrave went very well, and he's become a lot better than anticipated in these longer distance races over the last year, but at the same time, we didn't learn all that much about his ability to pace himself today as he spent the whole race with a pacemaker.

 

[BullsFan22]

Re:

Winterton is a huge Norway fanboy in everything he covers, so it's no surprise. Also, he's usually no good on younger names as his frame of references dates back a few years, so he's much better regards people who've been around several years rather than spotting people who are coming up through the ranks, and also he seems unable to ascertain age among the young athletes when they're just starting out, so if somebody has been on the World Cup very young and takes a couple of years to get their first success, he'll see that as slow development, whereas somebody from a country very deep in talent like Norway who doesn't break through to the team until later but is successful straight away, he will see as a huge breakthrough, even if they're both the same age. Posey's usually better than that when I've seen her on ES though.

Would have loved to have seen what would have happened had Musgrave and Hellner swapped start numbers, cos Musgrave got a very nice ride through the race, mainly from Heikkinen but then from Sundby, while Hellner basically spent 30k all on his lonesome. Musgrave went very well, and he's become a lot better than anticipated in these longer distance races over the last year, but at the same time, we didn't learn all that much about his ability to pace himself today as he spent the whole race with a pacemaker.

Maybe I have high expectations. Winterton has been with the Eurosport team, BBC team, ITV, etc for many years now and while I don't doubt that his frame of reference is different to that of someone like Posey (when Bjoern Daehlie came on screen, he started talking about him and Posey said that she grew up skiing at the time when Daehlie was racing, but hadn't known that much and the competition at the time in general).

I am not expecting every commentator to know absolutely everything about everyone, that's just not possible and it would be overkill, but some of the guys up front have been eye openers for a few years now.

Regarding Posey's brother, yes, I think, as some of us have already mentioned, he got very fortunate about who he was skiing with. He got rides from, among others, Legkov, Heikkinen, Krueger and Sundby. All four finished ahead of him, but he benefitted a lot from sitting in and not doing any work. Like you said, had he skied by himself as Hellner did, not sure he would have been top 20, maybe not even top 30. He looked composed though, but again, it's easier to sit in behind a train of fast moving people than doing all the work for K's on end.

 

[python]

anyone watching the british eurosport xc coverage without the audio suppressed...deserved suffering their nonesense. i wrote more than once, they are distorting the sport and therefore are the line of lasr resort for me. like today. even the the nrk commentary, while quite competent, is way too one-sided.

the way i watch - usually - is projecting the hd stream on my hdtv, while having the live splits update (the very neat fis app does a marvelous job) on my tablet. this way, even when i cant recognize a skier by his/her style, i can perfectly figure who does what by their bib #. the live fis updates are usually 2-5 minutes AHEAD of the live TV commentary, even the nrk's.

life is too short to be force fed someone's nonsense. plus, the technology allows the many options...

 

[portugal11]

Another victory to fourcade...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

In fairness though, that win was more about the others. He was handed over to with a decent sized lead because Russia and Germany had made mistakes, and frankly I don't think Martin worked particularly hard today, just managed the gap he already had.

Still, if we ignore the mixed at Östersund because he didn't enter, he's won 6/7 races he's entered this season, which is actually even worse than usual.

 

[python]

fourcade was cool as a cucumber. the germans made quite a comeback as the norwegians blew it. when shipulin took the anchor it was clear, based on his remarkable consistency, it was a podium, question was which step...
in general, the relays are my favorite discipline in the biathlon. mainly, b/c the cost of a mistake is sort of less harsh.

in the mean time, the sprint quals just over and we have some surprises...

stina did not make i (31st), but the the swedish girls did quite well with sundling winning and hanna falk 3d. it's true they are separated from falla and oestber by less than a second, but digging seems to know no fatigue even after her yesteday's 15k strong finish. very solid qualification from the 3 russian girls as well as from 5 slovenian girls. in fact, at the risk of being wrong, i cant recall them being so numerous in top 30 recently.
among the men, the 1st surprise is that ustiugov barely made it. calle, while on a start list dns-ed, but hellener is comfortably in. sundby is out. goooood. aload of other well expected norges is in.
pelle looks good to produce his 1st win this season. he was 3d in the quals.

 

[Cance > TheRest]

Re:

fourcade was cool as a cucumber. the germans made quite a comeback as the norwegians blew it. when shipulin took the anchor it was clear, based on his remarkable consistency, it was a podium, question was which step...
in general, the relays are my favorite discipline in the biathlon. mainly, b/c the cost of a mistake is sort of less harsh..

Me too. But this mens' relay was one of the worst I've witnessed in many years. Usually, the best thing about relays is that this is normally a discipline, where Fourcade never wins. It gives me some comfort to know that he's not there to spoil the party in the relays. But this time every single big nation failed, letting the french team drift into the front, eventually giving Fourcade an easy-earned win.

 

[python]

i know that many people here dont appreciate the xc sprints. but what was on display today in the men's division is exactly why i like them - the tactical race - where the moves must be both planned ahead as well executed flexibly based on the on-going situation.

i think that's where ustiougov was head and shoulder above everyone today.

to begin appreciating what he delivered needs to start with 2 things - he barely qualified, which can NOT be 'tactical' b/c of the huge risk and the sprint course was anything but conducive to the tactic he chose in the QF and SF (and probably planned). the course was 1.6 km, very narrow (max 3 skating lanes), twisty and with 2 very sharp, short hills. at the start of both QF and SF ustiugov deliberately chose to be the last, which is counter intuitive due to lacking good space to pass others prior to a final climb. yet, what he did was accelerating like a mad man on a flatish portion while others were tightly grouped, consumed by the pre-climb positioning. this required 100% and very long acceleration good 600-800 m before the finish. very risky due to a chance of blowing up too early. yet that's what he did carbon copying the tactic in the SF.

this requires a perfect knowledge of one's body anaerobic capabilities. i'd call it a 45-60 second training interval.

then, in the final he changd the tactic to racing from the front after a powerful acceleration from the start and never relinquishing the 1st position. not quite an all out time trial but close.

this was a pleasure to watch. thought pelle will do better...

 

[Libertine Seguros]

The problem is not the existence but the proliferation of sprints. 3 or 4 per season is enough. Keep them special. Now, there's a split between sprint and "distance" where "distance" accounts for anything from 3km to 50km. Maybe it needs further division like in Alpine (Slalom, Giant Slalom, Super G, Downhill) for different types of distance, though admittedly there are very few super-distance races nowadays unless you go to Worldloppet. It feels like we have a sprint every single weekend, and in Olympic years seemingly we do (seriously, in 2013-14 they accounted for about 50% of the calendar, which is a farce).

I don't mind the sprint as a concept, as long as it's an occasional attraction that adds variety to the calendar, rather than in its current role which is reducing variety by marginalizing a lot of distance racing. I see why the sprint was introduced but feel they've gone overkill on it which has killed its value, especially when, instead of tactical and testing battles that the format was designed for, you see lotteries and obstacle courses like we saw in the Canadian stage race last season. Rather than the individual sprint, what I really dislike is the team sprint. That is an horrible format that never deserved to exist in the first place and needs a swift euthanasia.

 

[May0maniac]

I'm not a big Sprint fan, but wow, what a performance by Ustiougov, the Russian Machine crushed everyone. Krogh finishing 2nd was also nice, he's my favourite Norwegian Skier and Diggins making the final is also good news.