Now Alberto is out, who will win the 2012 Tour de France?

[Zoncolan]

Levi doesn't ride for Bruyneel any more. Little chance of a podium.

 

[movingtarget]

The course will suit Leipheimer and he will do well in the TTs but will he climb well enough over three weeks ? The shorter stage races really suit him but has he a got a great grand tour left in him ? I'm not so sure. He should finish well inside the top 10 maybe better. I don't see any reason for him or Horner to retire. They are still riding well and winning races but not grand tours. That said I think they will both finish ahead of Kloeden. If riders like Menchov and Wiggins don't ride as well as expected, these are the riders that could finish in the top 5 or so. I think what Evans said could be right. Without Contador, lots or riders will fancy their chances so the race could be much more aggressive than last year and harder to control. Potentially even though a lot of people don't like the route it could be a much better race than last year which really did not excite much at all until the Gap stage and the last two mountain stages which were great to watch.

 

[Angliru]

Why so few votes for Levi??

I know a lot of people don't like him , and I don't particularly like him either, but I am suprised that more people don't give him a good shot on this route.

I see him as a similar rider to Cadel in many ways... solid climber and very good in the time trial.

Why no love??

...and last time I saw Levi finish a grand tour he was losing minutes on the climbs to the elite climbers. He can still hold his own in week long stage races but it seems over the course of 3 weeks he can't maintain that same level and simply gets dropped. The TT miles of course plays to his advantage but that is certainly dependant upon his famous and constant statement to the media about "limiting my losses in the mountains and making it up in the TT's".
He's not the climber he was and with what in all rights should be a constant attacked filled, aggressive battle in the mountains, he could find himself beyond the reach of potentially gaining back his lost time come the TT's.
It remains to be seen though if riders are willing to attack from further out than the base of the final climb, risking getting caught and blown out the back. This is after all the age of conservative strategizing, in the grand tours ushered in by Bruyneel.

 

[personal]

On the climbs Levi needs a wheel to follow and he will find it this year easily.
I already see him following Wiggins all the way to the top and then sprinting in the last 200 m to overtake him.

 

[Angliru]

And remember Levi was riding to nurse LA, foremost, not riding the Tour for his own ambitions. I'd say Levi did remarkably well when considering this factor.

In the 2009 Giro, Levi was riding for himself. Armstrong was there to make up for the racing miles he lost as a result of his crash in a particular Spanish week long stage race that was added to his calender of events after the season began.

In the 2009 Tour Levi crashed out by the end of week 1 so it's hard to say what his form would've been but certainly he would've been riding for Contador, Armstrong and likely Kloden who had shown better form in the initial TT than Levi.

In the 2010 Tour, he wasn't really showing any indications that he was going to be threatening for a podium spot, Armstrong or not.

Of course 2011 was a Tour that many contenders, including the entire gc contending class on Shack, would like to soon forget.

 

[Froome19]

1. Menchov
2. A. Schleck
3. Evans

Menchov will win the tour in the Time Trial. Cadel Evans will wheel Andy in in the final time trial, but it won't be enough for the time that he lost to Andy in the mountains.

If evans shows anything like what he showed in this years time trial then there is no way that Menchov will beat him (in the time trial and in GC)

 

[theyoungest]

If evans shows anything like what he showed in this years time trial then there is no way that Menchov will beat him (in the time trial and in GC)

If evans Menchov shows anything like what he showed in this years the 2010 time trial then there is no way that Menchov Evans will beat him (in the time trial and in GC)

 

[theyoungest]

If Menchov shows anything like what he showed in the 2010 time trial then there is no way that Evans will beat him (in the time trial and in GC)

Fixed it for you.

 

[Angliru]

On the climbs Levi needs a wheel to follow and he will find it this year easily.
I already see him following Wiggins all the way to the top and then sprinting in the last 200 m to overtake him.

Sprinting and Leipheimer should never be used together in the same sentence.

 

[Maxiton]

Leipheimer was time bonuses away from Contador in the Vuelta, and a bad day at Tignes away from him in the Tour, and we all know how good he was in that final TT, and the fact that Contador actually cracked a little on Aubisque and Levi was able to push on. He was as close to a GT win in 07/08 as Evans was. Credible or not, Horner has shown us that it's possible for a man of that age to perform on par with the best. Evans is of course younger, but still the oldest Tour winner, we really don't know how old is too old?

All true statements, no doubt. (And I recall how ****ed Contador was to have a supposed support rider of his vying with him for the win.) So, what you suggest is logical, I guess, but it's hard to start seeing Leipheimer as a viable candidate for the top step at this late stage of his career.

 

[Panda Claws]

This tour is for The Little Boss.

No, seriously though Evans will take it.

 

[Netserk]

as I have chosen others, I want to specify:

Contador

He will get cleared in June(or before) and win

 

[The Plediadian]

Tony Martin, this 2012 tour is created for him and Levi, or Kloden, or Cadel.
Check out this climb and the GC, stage 15, TdF 2009.
Martin at 3 minutes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ILiHu288bc

 

[Fetisoff]

Tony Martin, this 2012 tour is created for him and Levi, or Kloden, or Cadel.
Check out this climb and the GC, stage 15, TdF 2009.
Martin at 3 minutes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ILiHu288bc

Wow. Rating Martin higher than cuddles? I can understand Levi, but Kloden? Wow....

 

[Angliru]

Tony Martin, this 2012 tour is created for him and Levi, or Kloden, or Cadel.
Check out this climb and the GC, stage 15, TdF 2009.
Martin at 3 minutes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ILiHu288bc

It appears that you've been sniffing the glue again.

 

[Dancing On The Pedals]

Tony Martin, this 2012 tour is created for him and Levi, or Kloden, or Cadel.
Check out this climb and the GC, stage 15, TdF 2009.
Martin at 3 minutes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ILiHu288bc

Since his win on Ventoux in that Tour, he has shown absolutely nothing in the big mountains. Given that he has stated his priority for this year is the Olympic TT, I don't see him being a contender at all in July.

 

[Unkown]

Since his win on Ventoux in that Tour, he has shown absolutely nothing in the big mountains. Given that he has stated his priority for this year is the Olympic TT, I don't see him being a contender at all in July.

He didn't even win on Ventoux, Garate beat him in the final 50 meters. Funny how some people think Martin can be a contender when a team like RSNT will have 5+ guys who can climb considerably better than him. Plus like you said his priority is for the Olympic TT so he will have no shot at staying with the climbers in the mountains.

 

[Angliru]

Tony Martin, this 2012 tour is created for him and Levi, or Kloden, or Cadel.
Check out this climb and the GC, stage 15, TdF 2009.
Martin at 3 minutes.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ILiHu288bc

If this Tour were created for Tony there'd be no mtf's and 200 km's of TT's. As such, he has yet to show he can climb with even the 3rd tier climbers throughout a grand tour.

 

[Angliru]

Since his win on Ventoux in that Tour, he has shown absolutely nothing in the big mountains. Given that he has stated his priority for this year is the Olympic TT, I don't see him being a contender at all in July.

What Ventoux win????? Garate won that stage from a break. Martin was eventually dropped by Garate and finished 2nd.

 

[Fetisoff]

throughout a grand tour.

Exactly. He just has to blow up on one mountain finish to lose the entire time he would gain on the climbers in the three time trials, and then some

 

[El Pistolero]

Give it a rest guys, Tony Martin said he isn't going for GC in the Tour this year.

 

[Shark attack]

Tour 2012 podium:
Evans
Wiggins/Froome
Menchov

 

[guncha]

"Frank/Andy Schleck (specify choice) 25 9.36%" seems like joke to me. Andy is to underrated. Even with this route A.Shelck should be as one of two main pre-race favourites with at least as good chances as Evans. But he has less votes than Wiggins or Menchov - dream on, dream on...

 

[Waterloo Sunrise]

"Frank/Andy Schleck (specify choice) 25 9.36%" seems like joke to me. Andy is to underrated. Even with this route A.Shelck should be as one of two main pre-race favourites with at least as good chances as Evans. But he has less votes than Wiggins or Menchov - dream on, dream on...

It's a poll for who wins, not for who will definately be there or there abouts.

Andy will clearly be there, but it's hard to see him taking 3-4 minutes in the mountains out of each of the GC riders who will take that out of him in the TTs.

Meanwhile, for each of those guys if they climb at their best and have a great TT, the route to victory is a little clearer, even if there's a bigger chance of an individual fail on the climbing side.

 

[guncha]

It's a poll for who wins, not for who will definately be there or there abouts.

Andy will clearly be there, but it's hard to see him taking 3-4 minutes in the mountains out of each of the GC riders who will take that out of him in the TTs.

Meanwhile, for each of those guys if they climb at their best and have a great TT, the route to victory is a little clearer, even if there's a bigger chance of an individual fail on the climbing side.

I am skeptical that Wiggins, Leipheimer, Menchov, Nibali, Sanchez etc. will be able to challenge him - I think only one of this group will be able to challenge him; others will have bad luck, bad form, too old etc. At the end of the day Andy will have Evans + one more contender.
If Andy will be in top form I don't see him losing more than 2-3 min in TTs on his closest contender. With one attack in the Alps and one in the Pyrenees everything should be possible.