Now Alberto is out, who will win the 2012 Tour de France?

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

If wiggo wins the tour I'll post a video of me eating my bib shorts.

 

[Parrulo]

If wiggo wins the tour I'll post a video of me eating my bib shorts.

and i will post one of me eating my dirty underwear. . . honestly he has absolutely no chance unless every1 cept the cav crashes

 

[SHAD0W93]

and i will post one of me eating my dirty underwear. . . honestly he has absolutely no chance unless every1 cept the cav crashes

I still doubt he would win. I doubt he could even make podium.

 

[cineteq]

and i will post one of me eating my dirty underwear. . . honestly he has absolutely no chance unless every1 cept the cav crashes

I don't disagree, I think he has the same chance of winning as Tony Martin

 

[The Hitch]

I think Wiggins has a chance. Hes training like a nut.

His problem might be the tt ironically.

Not that he wont beat 90% of the Gc contenders. But in the 2 tts he has done in gts he performed in, he hasnt crushed everyone. When he gets really good for the mountains he loses about 10% off his tt form imo.

So people may be overating his tt for the Tour and even if he sticks in the mountains with Evans and Menchov all the way, i think we may see him barely taking 20 s or even matching Evans and menchov in the 2 tts and losing based on a few seconds here a few seconds there that those guys take from him in the mtfs and hill finishes. Well ok Menchov wont take as much in the hill finishes though Evans will and maybe Menchov will instead perform a little bit better in the tt or in the mountains.

But his climbing form will be good. Not Marco Pantani good but Miguel Indurain good.

 

[El Pistolero]

It will be a warm day in hell the day Wiggins climbs like Indurain.

 

[The Hitch]

It will be a warm day in hell the day Wiggins climbs like Indurain.

Its a ****ing analogy not a direct comparison

 

[El Pistolero]

You do realize that when Indurain wanted, he blew everyone away on the climbs?

 

[The Hitch]

You do realize that when Indurain wanted, he blew everyone away on the climbs?

I do

 

[La Pandera]

"Frank/Andy Schleck (specify choice) 25 9.36%" seems like joke to me. Andy is to underrated. Even with this route A.Shelck should be as one of two main pre-race favourites with at least as good chances as Evans. But he has less votes than Wiggins or Menchov - dream on, dream on...

As good a chance as Evans on a course with 100 km's of TT's? This belief after his performance in last year's Tour on a course more to his liking, one that he still could only take time out of Evans on a desperation long distance attack? Unless you anticipate Bruyneel working his mojo on Andy's TT skills I can't see how he should be given equal chance of success with Evans, who now has shown he knows how to win a grand tour, as has Menchov. I'm not saying Andy has no chance at Tour victory, just that Evans should be rated higher.

 

[La Pandera]

I am skeptical that Wiggins, Leipheimer, Menchov, Nibali, Sanchez etc. will be able to challenge him - I think only one of this group will be able to challenge him; others will have bad luck, bad form, too old etc. At the end of the day Andy will have Evans + one more contender.
If Andy will be in top form I don't see him losing more than 2-3 min in TTs on his closest contender. With one attack in the Alps and one in the Pyrenees everything should be possible.

Isn't Andy about due for some bad luck (and not the self-inflicted, chain-dropping, timid descending, hunger knock kind) of his own about now? Why should all of the above be the only recipients of bad luck, bad form etc....?

 

[La Pandera]

If wiggo wins the tour I'll post a video of me eating my bib shorts.

Your shorts are safe.

 

[La Pandera]

I think Wiggins has a chance. Hes training like a nut.

His problem might be the tt ironically.

Not that he wont beat 90% of the Gc contenders. But in the 2 tts he has done in gts he performed in, he hasnt crushed everyone. When he gets really good for the mountains he loses about 10% off his tt form imo.

So people may be overating his tt for the Tour and even if he sticks in the mountains with Evans and Menchov all the way, i think we may see him barely taking 20 s or even matching Evans and menchov in the 2 tts and losing based on a few seconds here a few seconds there that those guys take from him in the mtfs and hill finishes. Well ok Menchov wont take as much in the hill finishes though Evans will and maybe Menchov will instead perform a little bit better in the tt or in the mountains.

But his climbing form will be good. Not Marco Pantani good but Miguel Indurain good.

That's blasphemy! Seriously Hitch, Indurain good?? Come on now!

 

[The Hitch]

That's blasphemy! Seriously Hitch, Indurain good?? Come on now!

He wont fly away but hell stay with the heads of state is what I meant. Meant to be a vague analogy.

though on 2nd thought I guess I shouldnt have put it that way since Wiggins might crack if the going gets really tough and Andy Schleck and co start attacking from 2 mountains out.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

He wont fly away but hell stay with the heads of state is what I meant. Meant to be a vague analogy.

though on 2nd thought I guess I shouldnt have put it that way since Wiggins might crack if the going gets really tough and Andy Schleck and co start attacking from 2 mountains out.

I dont think so. Riders of wiggo type generally struggle more on multiple climb stages. I just don't see him hanging in the mountains with the head of state on a more testing course.

I'd be surprised if he took podium

 

[krismtb]

Andy
Cadel
Leipheimer
Horner

The last 2 only if they can keep out of the way of bad euro riders.

 

[La Pandera]

He wont fly away but hell stay with the heads of state is what I meant. Meant to be a vague analogy.

though on 2nd thought I guess I shouldnt have put it that way since Wiggins might crack if the going gets really tough and Andy Schleck and co start attacking from 2 mountains out.

Is it just a coincidence that Wiggins mentioned watching an Indurain race video as motivation in an article someone linked on one of the cn threads?

 

[clydesdale]

90K of time trials seems like quite a bit. Schleck (either one) doesn't really stand much of a chance there, no?

I'll have to go with a contender who can time trial like Menchov, Wiggins, or Evans. **Gag**, have to include Leipheimer, I suppose.

I'd probably lean toward Evans. Pretty chalk answer, I realize. Anyione know who's racing the Giro? Whoever races that can pretty safely be written off.

I'm a Nibali fan, though. Love to see him win.

 

[Dancing On The Pedals]

He didn't even win on Ventoux, Garate beat him in the final 50 meters. Funny how some people think Martin can be a contender when a team like RSNT will have 5+ guys who can climb considerably better than him. Plus like you said his priority is for the Olympic TT so he will have no shot at staying with the climbers in the mountains.

If this Tour were created for Tony there'd be no mtf's and 200 km's of TT's. As such, he has yet to show he can climb with even the 3rd tier climbers throughout a grand tour.

My bad - meant coming 2nd on Ventoux, forgot about Garate.

This year's Tour has lots of TT km only really in comparison to recent year's (and other GT's), and even this year it is under 100km total. However, I think that will still be too much for Andy to challenge the podium UNLESS he grows a pair and goes on the rampage in the mountains. Of course, if he did that, I might start to like him a little more...

 

[greenedge]

Ardila is not really the type of rider to keep you safe in the peloton

Menchov can also take care of himself in that department.

 

[greenedge]

If Andy will be in top form I don't see him losing more than 2-3 min in TTs on his closest contender. With one attack in the Alps and one in the Pyrenees everything should be possible.

He was in top form last year as well but he still lost a lot of time in the 42.5km ITT.

 

[greenedge]

"Frank/Andy Schleck (specify choice) 25 9.36%" seems like joke to me. Andy is to underrated. Even with this route A.Shelck should be as one of two main pre-race favourites with at least as good chances as Evans. But he has less votes than Wiggins or Menchov - dream on, dream on...

We are just saying who we think will win. He should have a real chance to get on the podium as one of Evans, Menchov and Wiggins could blow on one stage.

And he is a favourite, just not the main favourite on this route.

 

[birthmark]

Andy will be the favourite if the mountains are attacked really hard by Radioshack, which they will have to do, and he learns to limit his losses in the time trial. Evans and Menchov will be the most consistent, especially Evans. Still, it will be a pretty open race for top-ten and that can really break all race plans appart.

 

[TourOfSardinia]

If Sastre came out of retirement he might even win this tdF - postAlberto.

 

[personal]

Andy
Cadel
Leipheimer
Horner

The last 2 only if they can keep out of the way of bad euro riders.

HA, HA, HA, HA...!

Ehm... you are serious?