Now Alberto is out, who will win the 2012 Tour de France?

[scullster46]

Like a lot of other people, I think it's between Evans and Menchov. Both of them have proven that on their day they can out TT the rest of the gc guys, and can climb and respond to almost all attacks thrown their way. Out of those 2, I think Menchov is the better one on top form. Even though Alberto is out, I still use him as a sort of benchmark, and I always thought that Menchov was the guy with the greatest chance of beating him. Cadel surprised me a little last year, but I think the only person that could beat Menchov in his 09 Giro form is Contador.

Outside of them, I see Wiggins and little Schleckles as the ones most likely to challenge. One thing that I don't think enough people have taken into account with regard to Schleck, is that he may not be able to put in longer attacks that gain a lot of time. This is due to the fact that Sky will most likely push a hard tempo up the mountains, as it seems Wiggo has found that a hard even tempo to be the best way for him to climb.

 

[The Hitch]

He was in top form last year as well but he still lost a lot of time in the 42.5km ITT.

I dont think Andy was in top form last year. In 2010 he was dropping everyone bar Contador easy at will. In 2011, he couldnt do it, was even dropped himself on 1 hill stage. Stupidity played a huge part - not trying anything in the pyranees, thinking that Contador was going to be his main rival, but at the end of the day he was a level below his best too.

 

[scullster46]

I dont think Andy was in top form last year. In 2010 he was dropping everyone bar Contador easy at will. In 2011, he couldnt do it, was even dropped himself on 1 hill stage. Stupidity played a huge part - not trying anything in the pyranees, thinking that Contador was going to be his main rival, but at the end of the day he was a level below his best too.

I agree, Andy did not seem like he had great form last year, he really couldn't drop anyone. I don't care what anyone says about the hill not being suited to him, he won LBL, so he should have no problem dealing with it. His climbing style also looked much more labored than it did in 2010, where he just looked effortless at times. Idk why his form was worse, as he obviously didn't work on his TT enough to negatively affect his climbing abilities.

If Andy brings his 2010 form or better next year, and is super aggresive in the mountains, then he stands a good chance of pulling it off. I think he would need around 5 minutes on Menchov and Evans in the mountains, which is tough but doable if he tries.

 

[ferryman]

I dont think Andy was in top form last year. In 2010 he was dropping everyone bar Contador easy at will. In 2011, he couldnt do it, was even dropped himself on 1 hill stage. Stupidity played a huge part - not trying anything in the pyranees, thinking that Contador was going to be his main rival, but at the end of the day he was a level below his best too.

Yes, but he he did look like he could have gone at any moment in the Pyrenes so I guess we will never know just how much was down to stupidity or lack of top form and the believe that instills. By stupidity, I mean, in no particular order, looking out for big Bro/scared of an obviously not in top form Contador/not respecting Evans enough/arrogance that when he did decide to go it was in the bag. I'm still hoarse

 

[The Plediadian]

Pretty sure the 1st place will be either Horner(#1) climber and (#7) GT TTman or Levi(#7)climber and (#3)GT TTman.
3rd and forth will be contested by Kloden, Andy and Tony Martin. I have been informed that Tony won't be going for the win, so I see a battle of Superdomestiques between T. Martin ans Spartacus. Cancellera will be top 10. Cuddles will blow and will probably take the dreaded 14th position.
Hopefully Levi and Chris won't spend them selves at the #3 GT TofC.

 

[Froome19]

I agree, Andy did not seem like he had great form last year, he really couldn't drop anyone. I don't care what anyone says about the hill not being suited to him, he won LBL, .

TBH the only reason why Andy is so suited LBL and the other Ardennes (kind of) is due to the fact that he has amazing recovery and on the up and down of LBL which tires you out so much, it will thus totally suit him. Just look at this year where everyone was much too exhausted to react to the Schlecks attack (asides from Gilbert) even though they knew it was the decisive one.
Indeed the Schlecks have constantly said that they are much better the longer the stage for their main strength is recovery and used it to explain their faliure to gain any time on evans on Alpe de huez stage last year (110km)

Outside of them, I see Wiggins and little Schleckles as the ones most likely to challenge. One thing that I don't think enough people have taken into account with regard to Schleck, is that he may not be able to put in longer attacks that gain a lot of time. This is due to the fact that Sky will most likely push a hard tempo up the mountains, as it seems Wiggo has found that a hard even tempo to be the best way for him to climb.

Indeed you're right but I think the way its going to play out in the mountains is with Radioshack just trying to ride everyone of their wheels (us postal), rather than Sky being the ones who set the pace.
Schleck may attack but a long attack by andy I find highly doubtful, rather maybe by Frank.

 

[Carlo Algatrensig]

Well I've finally come round to casting my vote in the poll.

I've gone for other and by that I mean Froome. I don't think he'll have to work for wiggins at all really as the mountain stages will probably be controlled by other teams with GC interests unless Wiggins is in yellow after after the first long TT which I personally don't think will happen. I think his form in the last couple of years has been badly effected by the Bilharzia that he has had so what we would have seen from him in terms of natural progression from his Barlowworld days hasn't been visible even though he has clearly grown stronger based on last years vuelta.

 

[uphillstruggle]

Yes, but he he did look like he could have gone at any moment in the Pyrenes so I guess we will never know just how much was down to stupidity or lack of top form and the believe that instills. (

He looked weak on Luiz Ardiden. Frank kept looking for him to pull off the one-two but he couldn't. He looked strong on the Plateau though.

 

[Havetts]

He looked extremely weak on the stage to Gap, he couldnt even keep up uphill. That isnt what is being remembered, everyone said he lost it on the descent, but he already lost so much on the climb.

It was obvious that that was Schleck's weakest day in the Tour, he wasnt comfortable to Pinerolo either, but he was better that day and together with his brother he closed the gap.

 

[The Hitch]

He looked extremely weak on the stage to Gap, he couldnt even keep up uphill. That isnt what is being remembered, everyone said he lost it on the descent, but he already lost so much on the climb.

It was obvious that that was Schleck's weakest day in the Tour, he wasnt comfortable to Pinerolo either, but he was better that day and together with his brother he closed the gap.

For Schleck to keep up with Evans on a descent after what happened in Gap was a Landis like transformation.

 

[Havetts]

For Schleck to keep up with Evans on a descent after what happened in Gap was a Landis like transformation.

Evans was extremely strong, Schleck was bad, possibly affected by the rain, the cold wind and those three factors combined could be the reason he downhilled with his tails between his legs. That he cried about it, stupid of him, but irrelevant to his racing.

To be fair, Schleck only descended really bad during this Tour. I mean in 2010 after Chaingate he only lost 20 seconds to the so-dubbed "Worlds Best Descender".

I'm convinced Schlecks worst day was that day to Gap, where he "Lost the Tour".

 

[uphillstruggle]

This is due to the fact that Sky will most likely push a hard tempo up the mountains, as it seems Wiggo has found that a hard even tempo to be the best way for him to climb.

No way Sky pull that off in the tour. The days of teams pulling out a lead out all the way to the last 3 K of a climb are gone.Their team is good and Froome may be able to put off the attacks for a while but eventually he will crack and then it be up to the favourite to set this high tempo. The worrying thing is that there are so many of the favourites for who this would be a good tactic, only the Shlecks and real outsiders stand to gain from lots of attacks in the mountains.

Hey guys how do you respond to multiple post in one post?

 

[The Hitch]

Hey guys how do you respond to multiple post in one post?

Speech mark button next to "quote" button

 

[ferryman]

He looked weak on Luiz Ardiden. Frank kept looking for him to pull off the one-two but he couldn't. He looked strong on the Plateau though.

Gonna have to revisit that one on You Tube. Not my recollection but it is late and I am tired so won't argue tonight

 

[scullster46]

TBH the only reason why Andy is so suited LBL and the other Ardennes (kind of) is due to the fact that he has amazing recovery and on the up and down of LBL which tires you out so much, it will thus totally suit him. Just look at this year where everyone was much too exhausted to react to the Schlecks attack (asides from Gilbert) even though they knew it was the decisive one.
Indeed the Schlecks have constantly said that they are much better the longer the stage for their main strength is recovery and used it to explain their faliure to gain any time on evans on Alpe de huez stage last year (110km)

True, and it somewhat helps to explain why he lost time on the mur de bretagne (Though he still shouldn't have lost time to guys like Hushovd, Rojas, and Wiggins). However, if their main strength is recovery, then they should have been great on the alpe. Coming after a monster stage for everyone, it went over 2 climbs including the galibier before the alpe. That sounds like it would be great for a guy with great recovery. Unless of course you mean they have great endurance, which is a little different.

Imo, the real reason that he didn't gain any time on the Alpe stage last year was due to tactical ineptitude. He didn't work with Contador when they both got away from Evans early in the stage, and on the alpe he even asked Cadel to take a pull on the front. Bruyneel really has some work in front of him if he wants to get Schleck's head on straight.

 

[FreeWheelin]

For Schleck to keep up with Evans on a descent after what happened in Gap was a Landis like transformation.

So what are you suggesting... there was a bit of whiskey in his water bottle to calm the nerves and get a bit of courage

 

[The Hitch]

So what are you suggesting... there was a bit of whiskey in his water bottle to calm the nerves and get a bit of courage

I dont know I was just having a pop at Schleck I guess

Your right though that for once I wasnt accusing him of doping cos descending isnt about that.

Schleck isnt a bad descender at the TOur imo - see Galibier stage.

Maybe he was just bluffing on Gap in order to bait mortal enemy Berto into attacking on Pinerollo descent, thereby tiring him out for Galibier.

Cos thats what happened.

 

[movingtarget]

True, and it somewhat helps to explain why he lost time on the mur de bretagne (Though he still shouldn't have lost time to guys like Hushovd, Rojas, and Wiggins). However, if their main strength is recovery, then they should have been great on the alpe. Coming after a monster stage for everyone, it went over 2 climbs including the galibier before the alpe. That sounds like it would be great for a guy with great recovery. Unless of course you mean they have great endurance, which is a little different.

Imo, the real reason that he didn't gain any time on the Alpe stage last year was due to tactical ineptitude. He didn't work with Contador when they both got away from Evans early in the stage, and on the alpe he even asked Cadel to take a pull on the front. Bruyneel really has some work in front of him if he wants to get Schleck's head on straight.

He should have let Contador go, after Voeckler and Evans fell back. He should have conserved his energy and attacked Evans on the Alpe. I think it was tiredness from the day before plus his usual knee jerk reaction to Contador's attacks that tired him before the Alpe. He never looked comfortable in the TT. At the end of the TT Evans looked relatively fresh while Schleck looked exhausted. I tend to think that Schleck's condition going into the 2011 TDF was not as good as 2010. He looked really good in 2010 and responded well to all of Contador's attacks.

 

[Froome19]

True, and it somewhat helps to explain why he lost time on the mur de bretagne (Though he still shouldn't have lost time to guys like Hushovd, Rojas, and Wiggins). However, if their main strength is recovery, then they should have been great on the alpe. Coming after a monster stage for everyone, it went over 2 climbs including the galibier before the alpe. That sounds like it would be great for a guy with great recovery. Unless of course you mean they have great endurance, which is a little different.

Imo, the real reason that he didn't gain any time on the Alpe stage last year was due to tactical ineptitude. He didn't work with Contador when they both got away from Evans early in the stage, and on the alpe he even asked Cadel to take a pull on the front. Bruyneel really has some work in front of him if he wants to get Schleck's head on straight.

I guess it's a mixture of recovery and endurance but it was not me saying that they failed due to the shortness of the Alpe stage, but Schleck so it could be just taken as a lame excuse.
I think Schleck was right not to work with Contador on the Galibier as at the time it would have seemed like the right thing to do as Contador was evidently going full out and if they could have gotten the gap then Schleck would have plenty left in the tank and if they didn't get it then he still would be able to put up a fight to Evans. Working with Contador and then getting caught on the descent would have spoilt all chances of him winning le tour.

 

[The Hitch]

True, and it somewhat helps to explain why he lost time on the mur de bretagne (Though he still shouldn't have lost time to guys like Hushovd, Rojas, and Wiggins). However, if their main strength is recovery, then they should have been great on the alpe. Coming after a monster stage for everyone, it went over 2 climbs including the galibier before the alpe. That sounds like it would be great for a guy with great recovery. Unless of course you mean they have great endurance, which is a little different.

Imo, the real reason that he didn't gain any time on the Alpe stage last year was due to tactical ineptitude. He didn't work with Contador when they both got away from Evans early in the stage, and on the alpe he even asked Cadel to take a pull on the front. Bruyneel really has some work in front of him if he wants to get Schleck's head on straight.

I think his performance on 19 is a sign that his recovery is awesomme. He did a 60k solo, barely able to pedal at the end, would have killed most riders, then the next day he follows The Great One for 40k while Cadel had mostly an easier ride in the pack.

And then he still manages to go with Cadel all the way up Alpe an hour later, doing the pacing most of the way.

Insane.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Schleck isnt a bad descender at the TOur imo - see Galibier stage.

He's bad on wet roads.

 

[scullster46]

I think Schleck was right not to work with Contador on the Galibier as at the time it would have seemed like the right thing to do as Contador was evidently going full out and if they could have gotten the gap then Schleck would have plenty left in the tank and if they didn't get it then he still would be able to put up a fight to Evans. Working with Contador and then getting caught on the descent would have spoilt all chances of him winning le tour.

I guess not working with him was the safest decision. It's probably more wishful thinking on my part. Looking at it now, he still needed another minute and a half on Cadel. No way he gets that much on the alpe alone. I think that had he worked with Contador, they might have survived till the end. If they had a slightly larger gap, Evans wouldn't have caught up on the Galibier descent, and he would have had to pull everyone else along. Again, it's more of a dream than anything. Of course at the end of that dream, Contador storms away on the alpe and pulls off the greatest comeback of all time

I think his performance on 19 is a sign that his recovery is awesomme. He did a 60k solo, barely able to pedal at the end, would have killed most riders, then the next day he follows The Great One for 40k while Cadel had mostly an easier ride in the pack.

And then he still manages to go with Cadel all the way up Alpe an hour later, doing the pacing most of the way.

Insane.

Ya, it shows that he can recover, but he still was pulled along on the flat by Monfort on stage 18, then on 19 he did no work till the Alpe and he really just tempoed up the Alpe. Evans did his fair share of work on 18, and still did more work than Andy early on in 19. His recovery is obviously good, as shown by this and how much better he gets compared to everyone else in later time trials. I just don't think he has legendary recovery along the likes of guys like Contador (and Kruijswijk for the dutchies)

 

[The Hitch]

Evans did his fair share of work on 18, and still did more work than Andy early on in 19.

Strongly disagree with that. Shleck was behind 1 man- Contador for a good hour and Contador aint that big. He even did some pulling for a while. Evans meanwhile afer 5 minutes behind Contador was in the group.

Dont see where he would have done more work.

 

[scullster46]

Strongly disagree with that. Shleck was behind 1 man- Contador for a good hour and Contador aint that big. He even did some pulling for a while. Evans meanwhile afer 5 minutes behind Contador was in the group.

Dont see where he would have done more work.

Evans was brought back in fairly quickly, yes, but he still led the last 5k of the Galibier on 19 and brought the gap down from 1:45 to 30 seconds. I didn't factor in the size issue w/ regards to Contador though, thats a good point

 

[auscyclefan94]

Strongly disagree with that. Shleck was behind 1 man- Contador for a good hour and Contador aint that big. He even did some pulling for a while. Evans meanwhile afer 5 minutes behind Contador was in the group.

Dont see where he would have done more work.

I disagree. Schleck did very little work on the front and considering Evans had his break rubbing his wheel when the **** was hitting the fan it meant he still used a lot of energy to chase.