Now Alberto is out, who will win the 2012 Tour de France?

[Maxiton]

This time last year, after several years of watching him find a way to lose, not many would give Cadel a chance.

Now after 1 year of finding a way to win he's become a pretty hot favourite.

I don't expect him to collapse very poorly - but I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

I concur, it is hard to predict with cadel, remember in 2009 he was one of the favourites and ended up nowhere, missed the podium in the giro in 2010 and a great performance to win the tour last year... It's a very good route for him and if he has the same form as last year he has a brilliant chance but you are right he could easily fall away again..


I am sticking with andy for the win though

I agree. He's no Lance Armstrong, that's for sure.

It's true. We should be discussing whether Cadel is going to clinch his third or maybe fourth win with this Tour upcoming. But he made it clear last year that he's finally found the ticket, and given the 2012 parcours he'd have to really screw up / fall apart / crash out, in order to prevent it being win number two. Of course, he could ride well and still be cheated out of the win, but that's a word that's hard to use in cycling, close to impossible.

He deserves to be the favorite this year, and barring any major mishaps it seems a pretty safe bet. I hope. That still won't make him any Lance Armstrong, but that's why we love him.

 

[Fetisoff]

Menchov just needs 2 riders to keep him safe in the peloton. Kozontchuk and Ardilla did that in last couple of years. This year Gusev and Trofimov.

Yeah, somehow I forgot about Trofimov. I guess Caruso would be a very good helper in the mountains too, but he's probably doing Giro too.

 

[greenedge]

Menchov and Evans are similar riders in grand tours while Evans is a more versatile and can also do well in one day races. I am an Evans fan but I also like Menchov. Rolland has a pretty good TT but not as good as the best GC riders. I would not be surprised to see Rolland finish ahead of Voeckler this year. I am in two minds about R/Shack. Even if Bruyneel uses clever tactics, I have doubts about how effective Kloeden and Horner will be. Both are very strong in races of about one week or so but they have seen better days I think as far as grand tours go. Andy and Frank will both have to be in great form and will have to be very aggressive for more than periods of thirty seconds. The trouble with the epic break like Galibier last year is that they pay for it the next day and the day after.

This year RSNT should rely on Andy only having to put in one major attack though ( as the work from Frank, Horner and Kloden should tire Evans out ). Andy also fatigued himself by following Contador.

I agree that Rolland will finish higher than Voeckler ( Europcar i think will have him as their leader ) with Voeckler able to attack more. His 13th place in the Grenoble ITT last year speaks volumes about the fact he could improve.

 

[greenedge]

Yeah, somehow I forgot about Trofimov. I guess Caruso would be a very good helper in the mountains too, but he's probably doing Giro too.

He could always back up even though it would be hard.

 

[eliacodogno]

I fear that will win Wiggins; I hope Evans...

 

[airstream]

Menchov just needs 2 riders to keep him safe in the peloton. Kozontchuk and Ardilla did that in last couple of years. This year Gusev and Trofimov.

It depends on how to interpret someone who keeps safe. In my opinion, it must be guys, kind of Hincapie and Ekimov around LA, or Cancellara and Voigt around the Schlecks. Just riders, having a huge expierence and adjusted for work on protecting in the peloton. Gusev and Trofimov don't suit for that at all. Although I consider role of helpers in Menchov's perfomance to be minimal.

 

[theyoungest]

Menchov just needs 2 riders to keep him safe in the peloton. Kozontchuk and Ardilla did that in last couple of years. This year Gusev and Trofimov.

Not in the Tour de France. There he had guys like Tjallingii.

Ardila is not really the type of rider to keep you safe in the peloton

 

[movingtarget]

This time last year, after several years of watching him find a way to lose, not many would give Cadel a chance.

Now after 1 year of finding a way to win he's become a pretty hot favourite.

I don't expect him to collapse very poorly - but I wouldn't be surprised if he did.

I don't see it happening. I think there is more chance that someone like Wiggins will fall away. Sure Evans did not cope very well with being favourite in the past but that was with another team and under different circumstances. Evans may not be brash but he is a much more confident rider than he used to be and has much more confidence in his team and management. He is using a similar preparation this year and has an extra TT which is in his favour. I would be surprised if he collapsed like in 2009. There were obviously other issues going on that year re problems within his team.

 

[La Pandera]

I am surprised at the lack of love for Samu and Brajkovic/ Rolland ( others ). If Rolland can climb as well as he did last year and improve by 20 or so seconds in each ITT he could get into the top 7. Brajkovic was ill last year/ crashed out of the TDF but the ITTs' suit him.

Samu has been a perennial aggressor for the last 2 years and would have gone better if not for the crash ( 2010 ) and lost time in the TTT ( last year ).

Brajkovic hasn't shown that he can endure the 3 weeks of a grand tour to remain in contention and Rolland's performance last year is not grounds to rank him as a contender especially considering the extensive TT mileage in this year's Tour.

A agree with your opinion on Samu.

 

[La Pandera]

jc peraud did well last year and is a good time triallist and had to help roche last year so could go better . He wont win it though but worth a mention i suppose.

I agree. He's shown a steady progression since his transition to road racing at such a later point in his career and with the recent trend of riders still performing and improving at a high level in their mid to late 30's, maybe we can expect a similar improvement with Peraud.

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

Bradley Wiggins is going to win the Tour.

 

[Fetisoff]

He could always back up even though it would be hard.

Naah.. remember how useless Contador's amigos were at last year's TDF? I mean this year's Giro's not as hard, but still

 

[Maxiton]

I don't see it happening. I think there is more chance that someone like Wiggins will fall away. Sure Evans did not cope very well with being favourite in the past but that was with another team and under different circumstances. Evans may not be brash but he is a much more confident rider than he used to be and has much more confidence in his team and management. He is using a similar preparation this year and has an extra TT which is in his favour. I would be surprised if he collapsed like in 2009. There were obviously other issues going on that year re problems within his team.

+1. You just said everything I should have said. With a better organization and real support, Evans can afford to have confidence, and it shows. I pity the foo who bets against him now.

 

[LaFlorecita]

Bradley Wiggins is going to win the Tour.

No.

Blablabla

 

[DenisMenchov]

No.

Blablabla

Can you tell on what is your 6 GT wins signature based on?

 

[Havetts]

Can you tell on what is your 6 GT wins signature based on?

2007 Tour
2008 Giro Vuelta
2009 Tour
and the lost 2010 Tour & 2011 Giro.


But if we are going to act biased like the signature I'll just say he has only 3, seeing he didnt really win the 2007 Tour.

 

[DenisMenchov]

2007 Tour
2008 Giro Vuelta
2009 Tour
and the lost 2010 Tour & 2011 Giro.


But if we are going to act biased like the signature I'll just say he has only 3, seeing he didnt really win the 2007 Tour.

You read my mind.

 

[Ripper]

8 people think Levi will win?!

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

8 people think Levi will win?!

I was thinking the same thing... Ridiculous!

 

[EddytheBoss]

probably Evans, but i hope Nibali or Sanchez ...

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

A lot of love it seems for Nibali & Sanchez at the same time.. Bit of a cult movement perhaps? Forget it mate Nibali or Sanchez can't climb or TT well enough.

 

[EddytheBoss]

A lot of love it seems for Nibali & Sanchez at the same time.. Bit of a cult movement perhaps? Forget it mate Nibali or Sanchez can't climb or TT well enough.[/QUOTE

if Sanchez is in super form he maybe have a shot, but Nibali seems to always crack under pressure.. but its alowed to have some hope isnt it!?!

 

[El Pistolero]

Can you tell on what is your 6 GT wins signature based on?

Still mad Menchov only won 2 GTs?

We all know he didn't win in 2005, so don't kid your self.

 

[gingerwallaceafro]

A lot of love it seems for Nibali & Sanchez at the same time.. Bit of a cult movement perhaps? Forget it mate Nibali or Sanchez can't climb or TT well enough.[/QUOTE

if Sanchez is in super form he maybe has a shot, but Nibali seems to always crack under pressure.. but its alowed to have some hope isnt it!?!

Yep, it's what this great thing called sport is based on. Have to say I'm a fan of Nibs myself, love watching him descend.

 

[DenisMenchov]

Still mad Menchov only won 2 GTs?

We all know he didn't win in 2005, so don't kid your self.

I know he didn't, Heras did. No doubts about that.