Now Alberto is out, who will win the 2012 Tour de France?

[Swede1]

How about Peter Velits? I think he could pull out a top 5 this year and maybe better. He can TT really well and with this years route anything is possible for him. As long as he doesn't get injured, I think he will be a factor.

 

[Unkown]

How about Peter Velits? I think he could pull out a top 5 this year and maybe better. He can TT really well and with this years route anything is possible for him. As long as he doesn't get injured, I think he will be a factor.

I see Velits as a second or 3rd tier GT guy, he doesn't have a explosive attack to rival any of the top climbers and I don't think he can make up his lost time in time trials either. I would say top 10 for him maybe.

The only riders i see being able to win the Tour this year are these guys:

Sammy Sanchez- take advantage of being the second best climber and time trial well
Andy Schleck- attack every day whether it be him or his teammates, maybe RSNT can blow up Evans, Menchov, Wiggins.
Cadel Evans- do the same thing as 2011 Tour, cover Andy and destroy him in the TT's
Denis Menchov- out-climb Evans plus time trial considerably better than Schleck and Sanchez.


I am tempted to add Wiggins, but to be honest I think RSNT is going to set a crazy pace and attack every single day with somebody to make it hard on him early on, by the end of the 3 weeks he will be gassed and will blow up on 1 of the last mountain stages.

 

[The Hitch]

i offer to build on opponents who he beat. They were leipheimer, partially sick in that Giro, having been dropped on all of the climbs, plus natively anti time trialist di luca and Sastre, as it were, a pretty weak TT'er. if menchov will be able to show somethin like that in the Tour, ill eat my hat. seems to be totally unbelievable to me.

He has shown something like that in the Tour - 2010.

Besides you think Cadel will own the tts but not Menchov. But last time they faced eachother in the Tour (excluding 2010 Cadel Giro and 2009 Menchov Giro) was 2008 and Menchov beat Cadel.

So even if he dont win it by a minute hes still perfectly capable of putting in very good tts that mix well with a strong mountain showing.

He should not waste his time at the tour de france and go for the tour of poland instead it's a better race



I usually bet on menchov to win the tour but I think he is a bit past it now.

What the one year his odds are 66-1 you dont bet on him

 

[palmerq]

What the one year his odds are 66-1 you dont bet on him

I am cunning like a fox :S..... although to be honest that sounds like the sort of odds I usually bet on and lose obviously but at least the bookmakers are always happy to see me :S

 

[greenedge]

I see Velits as a second or 3rd tier GT guy, he doesn't have a explosive attack to rival any of the top climbers and I don't think he can make up his lost time in time trials either. I would say top 10 for him maybe.

The only riders i see being able to win the Tour this year are these guys:

Sammy Sanchez- take advantage of being the second best climber and time trial well
Andy Schleck- attack every day whether it be him or his teammates, maybe RSNT can blow up Evans, Menchov, Wiggins.
Cadel Evans- do the same thing as 2011 Tour, cover Andy and destroy him in the TT's
Denis Menchov- out-climb Evans plus time trial considerably better than Schleck and Sanchez.


I am tempted to add Wiggins, but to be honest I think RSNT is going to set a crazy pace and attack every single day with somebody to make it hard on him early on, by the end of the 3 weeks he will be gassed and will blow up on 1 of the last mountain stages.

I think you should add Wiggins but overall i agree with that assessment of the main contenders. Also if Wiggins cannot handle the pace they will just chuck the reins to Froome ( hopefully at the start as well so we don't get a repeat of the Vuelta ).
I think if Velits recaptures his 2010 Vuelta form he could be a threat, but he is an unknown quantity at the TDF ( though last year he did well on Alpe D Huez ).

 

[ferryman]

I think you should add Wiggins but overall i agree with that assessment of the man contenders. Also if Wiggins cannot handle the pace they will just chuck the reins to Froome ( hopefully at the start as well so we don't get a repeat of the Vuelta ).
No disprespect man but this is the TDF, Wiggins will be team leader and if he is off the pace the largely unknown Froome will be in the 2nd Gruppeto with him at best. When Andy decides to go this year there will be mayhem

 

[greenedge]

True, and it somewhat helps to explain why he lost time on the mur de bretagne (Though he still shouldn't have lost time to guys like Hushovd, Rojas, and Wiggins). However, if their main strength is recovery, then they should have been great on the alpe. Coming after a monster stage for everyone, it went over 2 climbs including the galibier before the alpe. That sounds like it would be great for a guy with great recovery. Unless of course you mean they have great endurance, which is a little different.

Wiggins i think also lost time on stage 4.

 

[straydog]

I think, barring accidents, dogs being stepped on etc...it's gonna be a straight grind fest between Evans And The Wig. Profile and TT miles suits both.

Outsiders for podiums....Tommy V...Basso....Rolland....Schlecklet will get toasted on the TT's but may just scrape himself there in the mountains.

Leipheimer/menchov/ Nibali/ Klodi/ Old man Horner....not a chance

so putting myself on the line, and I admit this is partly wishful thinking:

1.Wiggins
2.Evans
3.Schleck the minor. (but at least he won in 2010 eh?)

Peace

 

[SHAD0W93]

I think, barring accidents, dogs being stepped on etc...it's gonna be a straight grind fest between Evans And The Wig. Profile and TT miles suits both.

Outsiders for podiums....Tommy V...Basso....Rolland....Schlecklet will get toasted on the TT's but may just scrape himself there in the mountains.

Leipheimer/menchov/ Nibali/ Klodi/ Old man Horner....not a chance

so putting myself on the line, and I admit this is partly wishful thinking:

1.Wiggins
2.Evans
3.Schleck the minor. (but at least he won in 2010 eh?)

Peace

Basso is riding the Giro, Menchov will podium, Klodi could if he was team leader, and Wiggins will never ever podium at the Tour.

 

[greenedge]

Sky should do that ( if they want to ensure they can win the TDF ). They have to be ruthless ( if Froome has his form from the Vuelta he deserves the right to have co-leadership )

 

[movingtarget]

Looked the strongest rider in the 3rd week of the Vuelta last year so I dont think he is past it. Think he will be super motivated for the Tour as the one GT he hasnt won. With the amount of TT miles this years as well he got my vote.

I think you are possibly right. He will be super motivated knowing that Contador won't be there. I think that Evans and Menchov will fight it out. Schleck may even be in the lead going into the last TT but then it will be game over once again for him. I think Contador's absence gives a lot of riders extra motivation especially the good TT riders. Only big time gaps on the MTFs give Schleck any chance.

 

[The Hitch]

You got to love it when Chouchou and Rolland are challengers for the podium but Menchov has the same chance as Horner and Gesink VDB Samu and Valverde arent even worthy of a mention

 

[straydog]

You got to love it when Chouchou and Rolland are challengers for the podium but Menchov has the same chance as Horner and Gesink VDB Samu and Valverde arent even worthy of a mention

Gesink??? Valverde??? Samu???? Are you drunker than me? for GC? Seriously?

Ok VDB...an outsider...slim outsider, possibly, for podium. Menchov and Horner, well, age and their TDF records don't exactly inspire do they? There is a big difference between TOC and TDF and between the Giro minus everyone worth mentioning and the TDF. And Menchov just lit up the vuelta last year didn't he?

Rolland and TV can both TT over a minute better than schelcklet over 50kms and can certainly hold their own in the mountains this year. Andy will put some time into them, sure, but enough?

Ok Hitch I am going to enjoy feeding your humble pie to you come the end of july....I feel a bet coming on.

As to whoever said Wiggins will never podium, you could be right. Honestly I think his form coming into last year was his best so far, but if he gets near that this year, avoids crashes, is motivated, then he certainly can give Evans a run. Witness last years Dauphine.

Peace

 

[straydog]

Basso is riding the Giro, Menchov will podium, Klodi could if he was team leader, and Wiggins will never ever podium at the Tour.

ah...it was you!...Klodi could have, if he had been a leader five years ago, would love to have seen it. But he isn't now, wasn't then, and as such won't podium.

You're right Basso is riding Giro....won't feature at TDF...as for the last bit...we'll see

 

[woodenswan]

You got to love it when Chouchou and Rolland are challengers for the podium but Menchov has the same chance as Horner and Gesink VDB Samu and Valverde arent even worthy of a mention

some curious choices there obviously.. like riders not starting contending for the podium

i'd love to see Menchov riding a good agressive race. i know he had to attack somewhere in his career to win the giro for example, it's just that i wasnt around back then. i think i have actually never seen him attack. all right, I'll go utube "menchov attack"

 

[straydog]

some curious choices there obviously.. like riders not starting contending for the podium

i'd love to see Menchov riding a good agressive race. i know he had to attack somewhere in his career to win the giro for example, it's just that i wasnt around back then. i think i have actually never seen him attack. all right, I'll go utube "menchov attack"

you might be a while....

 

[SHAD0W93]

ah...it was you!...Klodi could have, if he had been a leader five years ago, would love to have seen it. But he isn't now, wasn't then, and as such won't podium.

You're right Basso is riding Giro....won't feature at TDF...as for the last bit...we'll see

Would have been nice if Klodi had won either a GT or stage at this point. One could hope he will podium ut I know it is very slim.

We will see Wiggins get fourth behind 3. Evans, 2. A. Schleck, 1. Menchov.

 

[Parrulo]

i love how people rate wiggins over much beter GC guys like menchov, samu and nibali. just hilarious stuff

and wiggins itt hasn't even been that impressive on GT's,

barely put into an off form nibali at a course suited to him at the vuelta and on the 2009 only put a minute on andy and 1 and 10 odd secs on nibali. both guys that have improved greatly since(the tour 2009 not the 2011 vuelta) then and are much better climbers then wiggins so they can drop him easily if they race the mountain stages properly. And as bad as mountain stages of the tour are next year, they aren't the typical vuelta 1 climb at the end of a flat stage mountain stage where i guy like wiggins can itt his way up, they will have more then one mountain to put a lot of pain in his legs.

 

[straydog]

Would have been nice if Klodi had won either a GT or stage at this point. One could hope he will podium ut I know it is very slim.

We will see Wiggins get fourth behind 3. Evans, 2. A. Schleck, 1. Menchov.

would loved to have seen klodi win one...really thought in 07 he was going to co lead with Vino...then when he crashed he spent the whole tour nursing him. I think they're both great, would like to have seen both of them win in France. I remember that year and 08 everyone was saying Menchov was gonna step up too, all he did in 07 was step off when rasmussen got the boot. I don't think he has what it takes mentally at the tour, aside from his age, and a year with Geox that was akin to semi retirement.

Honestly, I think it's between Evans and Wiggins, unless someone switches off and there is a crazy gap one day.

Richie Porte someone mentioned...kind of inconsistent and i think it will beyond him, but looked very good the other day.

Froome...won't be co leading...will be working his socks off if he rides, and they don't just let him lead at the vuelta.

 

[straydog]

i love how people rate wiggins over much beter GC guys like menchov, samu and nibali. just hilarious stuff

yes cos nibali and menchov really put him to the sword at the vuelta! Totally smoked him

 

[straydog]

i love how people rate wiggins over much beter GC guys like menchov, samu and nibali. just hilarious stuff

and wiggins itt hasn't even been that impressive on GT's,

barely put into an off form nibali at a course suited to him at the vuelta and on the 2009 only put a minute on andy and 1 and 10 odd secs on nibali. both guys that have improved greatly since(the tour 2009 not the 2011 vuelta) then and are much better climbers then wiggins so they can drop him easily if they race the mountain stages properly. And as bad as mountain stages of the tour are next year, they aren't the typical vuelta 1 climb at the end of a flat stage mountain stage where i guy like wiggins can itt his way up, they will have more then one mountain to put a lot of pain in his legs.

apart from top five in every GT TT he's raced since 07, apart from 09 Giro if memory serves me right.

you thought Vuelta suited him and not this years TDF profile? At 6 foot 4 and 70 kilos riding up 23 percent and still beating Nibali and Menchov.

The 2012 tour profile...one day above 2000 metres....five mountain stages with 2 summit finishes...doesn't suit him? Do you actually watch cycling?

 

[Parrulo]

yes cos nibali and menchov really put him to the sword at the vuelta! Totally smoked him

i think it is pretty obvious that nibali was off-form isn't it?(i was going to be rhetorical on this but i would actually love to see you argue the he was on form) and menchov was stronger then wiggins on the last week but unfortunately for him there were only 2 GC relevant stages, one where his team mate was up the road(angliru) so he stayed with the best sky guy there(froome) and pena cabarga where he put time into wiggins, hadn't he lost silly time on the first week menchov would have most likely been the winner of last years vuelta.

 

[Parrulo]

apart from top five in every GT TT he's raced since 07, apart from 09 Giro if memory serves me right.

you though Vuelta suited him and not this years TDF profile? At 6 foot 4 and 70 kilos riding up 23 percent and still beating Nibali and Menchov.

The 2012 tour profile...one day above 2000 metres....five mountain stages with 2 summit finishes...doesn't suit him? Do you actually watch cycling?

i do. wiggins excels on flat stages with 1 climb at the end which is pretty much the vuelta modus operandi. however the tour will at least have 1 or 2 mountain stages with more then one mountain with not so much flat btw the climbs. do you know what other GT used this modus operandi on the last few years? that's right the 2009 tour with arcalis, verbier and ventoux. you want to know what happened in the 2009 tour on the only mountain stage with several succession of mountains?

July 22, 2009: Tour de France: Bourg Saint Maurice - Le Grand Bornand (169.5 km):
1 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 04:53:54
2 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana
3 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank
4 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 0:02:18
5 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana
6 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:02:27
7 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream 0:03:07

in case you haven't watched that stage, after a few attacks the schlecks, contador and kloden simply rode away from wiggins and armstrong failed to follow frank which hadn't gone with the initial move made by the other 3. that was on the second to last climb, by that time nibali had been dropped for a while but since wiggins had CVV setting the pace for him nibali was able to get back before the end of that climb. on the last climb despite having a team mate pacing him for most of the previous climb both armstrong and a guy who had been struggling for the entire day were able to drop wiggins and put almost a minute into him.

 

[straydog]

i think it is pretty obvious that nibali was off-form isn't it?(i was going to be rhetorical on this but i would actually love to see you argue the he was on form) and menchov was stronger then wiggins on the last week but unfortunately for him there were only 2 GC relevant stages, one where his team mate was up the road(angliru) so he stayed with the best sky guy there(froome) and pena cabarga where he put time into wiggins, hadn't he lost silly time on the first week menchov would have most likely been the winner of last years vuelta.

Listen, a fully "prepared" Menchov, in his prime of course would be a threat. I like the guy, honestly. He has been responsible for possibly the two most tedious vuelta wins I have ever had the misfortune of watching, but none the less the dude could ride. Trouble is he has never performed in a "class" field. and your point about him being strong in the last week in spain in 2011, is kind of moot. It's a three week race. As for Wiggins getting dropped when cobo was up the road, as I said if you looked at that profile and thought it suited Wiggins then it was wishful thinking.

As for Nibali, we could argue pointlessly about his form or lack of it, so lets not bother. But there is nothing high enough or steep enough for him to make up the time he WILL lose in the TT's. The Sclecks rode so cagily last year that they couldn't unship TV, and if they do the same this year, it's very unlikely Nibali will have the support around him to launch any real damage in the mountains.

 

[straydog]

i do. wiggins excels on flat stages with 1 climb at the end which is pretty much the vuelta modus operandi. however the tour will at least have 1 or 2 mountain stages with more then one mountain with not so much flat btw the climbs. do you know what other GT used this modus operandi on the last few years? that's right the 2009 tour with arcalis, verbier and ventoux. you want to know what happened in the 2009 tour on the only mountain stage with several succession of mountains?

July 22, 2009: Tour de France: Bourg Saint Maurice - Le Grand Bornand (169.5 km):
1 Fränk Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank 04:53:54
2 Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Astana
3 Andy Schleck (Lux) Team Saxo Bank
4 Vincenzo Nibali (Ita) Liquigas 0:02:18
5 Lance Armstrong (USA) Astana
6 Andreas Klöden (Ger) Astana 0:02:27
7 Bradley Wiggins (GBr) Garmin - Slipstream 0:03:07

in case you haven't watched that stage, after a few attacks the schlecks, contador and kloden simply rode away from wiggins and armstrong failed to follow frank which hadn't gone with the initial move made by the other 3. that was on the second to last climb, by that time nibali had been dropped for a while but since wiggins had CVV setting the pace for him nibali was able to get back before the end of that climb. on the last climb despite having a team mate pacing him for most of the previous climb both armstrong and a guy who had been struggling for the entire day were able to drop wiggins and put almost a minute into him.

Thanks for the replay...I did watch it but I enjoyed your take on it none the less. Strange how you only picked that stage and not the other climbs in 09.

ok stage 11 this year is the only summit published so far and only stage over 200metres...10 and 14 both have long descents/flats to finish.

Madeleine and then Croix de fer are your boys chance, but he'll likely be 40 seconds down by the point anyway after the stage 8 TT.

Gonne be fun to watch though