thehog said:
Seriously?
His job is risk assessment and he didn't even factor in doping might occur. Even after Festina? & the '99 TUE?
That's like bank loaning money and not factoring in that some people might not pay back the loan by not building in provisions for late fees, additional interest and means of recovery.
It was a horrible bet but made worse but not entertaining he possibility that the individual might just do what 99% or the peloton was doing in 1998.
That was insanity.
Outside of doping back then Lance was unstoppable at the Tour. Who was going to beat him? Ullrich who was overweight had crashed his Porsche whilst drunk and took a hit of E. Unlikely. And that put $7.5m on that he'd lose... would you?
did you not say that it was his son that underwrote it, but Bob signed it off?
On that basis, Bob can only go by what is presented to him... He'll have checked it, for sure. Maybe even done a bit of research himself, but in the main would trust his team to do their job.
You mention Festina, but was not the reaction that all dialled it back after that? Would it not be fair to say that no one expected anyone to actually go full *** with doping straight after? Could SCA have thought the others may be getting back to old tricks and likely trump LA in the following few years?
Bob n co, being Americans, who at the time in 2001/2002 weren't the most offay when it came to European cycling and it's machinations, no?
Back then, very few alarm bells were ringing about LA and super doping programme for the general public... Let's face it, in 2001/2 what would SCA know about "bicycle racing"?
Are they likely to have thought anything fishy about a TUE? Even know exactly what one is? Be thinking nothing of it a few years later? "
Well, it was just cream for a saddlesore, and all is fine now"... Possible?
Likewise, I'll wager that a good portion of Bob n co's reasoning would be statistical as well - ie; extremely rare for a 5-in-a-row TdF winner, let alone a 6 or 7 in-a-row. Probability, Law of Averages, etc...
An American to win 7 TdF's in a row? Europeans and others would be rolling around on the floor if you said that to them back in 2002.
Don't forget, LA didn't have to get beat either, only lose it.
At the time, LA had 4-in-a-row with no misfortune, falls, crashes, mechanicals, illness, etc... but it would have been assumed that he would have some at some stage simply because everyone does - law of averages? Who would have thought he'd save up all his crashes for his last tour during comeback 2.0?
A good example would be Froome - after his 2013 win everyone was yammering on that he'd win several more TdF's, there was no one to stop him, yada yada... yet his luck ran out the next year. He wasn't beaten by Nibali, but effectively "forfeited" and therefore lost it - so to speak.
As for challengers, well '03 saw Ullrich only a minute behind... Hamilton a definite challenger til the collarbone... Vino thereabouts... RoboBasso and Menchov coming up. All sorts of possibilities for the years to come.
(Then again, I wasn't riding back then, so can't say too much on this bit)
I'd wager, SCA understood the risk and exposures to the degree of general information known to them. At the time, Motormouth was spouting the usual rhetoric about being clean, never tested positive, etc and lone voices like Walsh were being howled down as trolls and crackpot conspiracy theorists...
Has Bob n Co ever said why they did it? What their logic and rationale was?
Way too easy to stand back 12 years later, knowing
everything we know now and say, yeah they were insane.
Where were you situated in 2002? Any idea that LA was protected species and in cahouts with Hein?