Official Lance Armstrong Thread: Part 3 (Post-Confession)

[thehog]

Re: Official Lance Armstrong Thread: Part 3 (Post-Confession

Mike McCann, SI's legal analyst, had a lot of articles on LA preceding and right after the Reasoned Decision. Here's his take on the settlement:

No matter the rebuttals Armstrong raised, he knew that the government usually wins its false claim cases or at least negotiates a settlement in which the defendant must pay a great deal of money. According to one recent analysis of false claim cases where the government has intervened, approximately 95% lead to a favorable judgment or settlement. These realities likely played a motivating force in Armstrong’s decision to settle in spite of his rebuttals and in spite of the fact that so few qui tam defendants possess the level of resources necessary to retain a legal team of top attorneys as Armstrong had assembled.

For its part, the Justice Department also had plenty of reason to settle after six years of going after Armstrong. As explained above, the government’s case was by no means airtight, particularly in regard to proving that Armstrong harmed USPS. A de facto loss in a trial this fall would have been a setback for the federal government. After all, the government had pursued Armstrong to stress that those who do business with the federal government must fulfill the contractual obligations. Losing to Armstrong would have sent the wrong message in a high-profile trial.

https://www.si.com/cycling/2018/04/21/lance-armstrong-settled-us-government-lawsuit

Armstrong offered $5m way back when and it was rejected. The government has deep pockets and strong investigative powers. Regardless most civil suits settle just before trial. Nothing unusual at the end of the day.

Bruyneel is fighting his ten year ban and has a book on the way as does Armstrong. I think everyone is exhausted by it all, not really much more to know about what transpired unless LA/JB want to give us the truth on he UCIs collusion.

 

[Alpe73]

Re: Official Lance Armstrong Thread: Part 3 (Post-Confession

Mike McCann, SI's legal analyst, had a lot of articles on LA preceding and right after the Reasoned Decision. Here's his take on the settlement:

No matter the rebuttals Armstrong raised, he knew that the government usually wins its false claim cases or at least negotiates a settlement in which the defendant must pay a great deal of money. According to one recent analysis of false claim cases where the government has intervened, approximately 95% lead to a favorable judgment or settlement. These realities likely played a motivating force in Armstrong’s decision to settle in spite of his rebuttals and in spite of the fact that so few qui tam defendants possess the level of resources necessary to retain a legal team of top attorneys as Armstrong had assembled.

For its part, the Justice Department also had plenty of reason to settle after six years of going after Armstrong. As explained above, the government’s case was by no means airtight, particularly in regard to proving that Armstrong harmed USPS. A de facto loss in a trial this fall would have been a setback for the federal government. After all, the government had pursued Armstrong to stress that those who do business with the federal government must fulfill the contractual obligations. Losing to Armstrong would have sent the wrong message in a high-profile trial.

https://www.si.com/cycling/2018/04/21/lance-armstrong-settled-us-government-lawsuit

Armstrong offered $5m way back when and it was rejected. The government has deep pockets and strong investigative powers. Regardless most civil suits settle just before trial. Nothing unusual at the end of the day.

Bruyneel is fighting his ten year ban and has a book on the way as does Armstrong. I think everyone is exhausted by it all, not really much more to know about what transpired unless LA/JB want to give us the truth on he UCIs collusion.

Don't need it. Clinic can just make it up.

 

[Alpe73]

http://www.cyclingnews.com/news/lance-armstrong-to-podcast-from-giro-ditalia-in-israel-and-tour-of-california-after-dollar-5m-settlement/

If Lance's and JB's coverage of the Giro (just the P and first 2 stages?) is as good as his TDF "Stages" coverage last year ... will be great stuff. I wish them well.

 

[Benotti69]

'End of an Error'

https://pvcycling.wordpress.com/2018/04/23/end-of-an-error-2/#comments

Seth Davidsons take on the settlement. I would say he is pretty damn close to the bone.

 

[aphronesis]

He knows the facts of civil suits as do many. High marks for the armchair psychology. Given that he expresses himself like the sort of juvenile inner bro that armstrong appealed to and doesn’t have a story that anyone wants, I’m not going to take his remarks on writing to the bank.

 

[fmk_RoI]

Re:

'End of an Error'

https://pvcycling.wordpress.com/2018/04/23/end-of-an-error-2/#comments

Seth Davidsons take on the settlement. I would say he is pretty damn close to the bone.

Let's play math:

If Lance started with something around $125M, and lost $100M including legal fees, it’s easy to see that the only money he has left are his two homes ($9.25M in Aspen, $7.5M in Austin), and the balance that he has stuck away in retirement accounts to insulate himself from bankruptcy should he really lose all the marbles. In fact, in his settlement agreement, he promises to make the payments within one year and to put a lien on his Austin home as collateral, guaranteeing that he will make the payments. Should the home sell before his settlement payments are made, he will collateralize his home in Aspen, again as a guarantee. I don’t think that Bill Gates would have to put a lien on his home to pay a $6M fine.

The $125m starting point is frequently quoted. Doesn't mean it's right, but it's generally accepted. So let's pretend. He started with $125m.

The $100m lost. There's two sources for that. The oldest is the claim that, on the day he accepted defeat, he threw away $100m in sponsorship contracts. In other words, he threw away $100m in future earnings. Not $100m of the $125m we're pretending he started with.

A second source for the $100m is LA himself, saying that over the last five years this thing has cost him $100m. What he means there, you decide. Actual cost or opportunity cost.

So, is it easy to see that the only money he has left is wrapped up in two houses? I think there is room for a difference of opinion. But it does help that, by the magic of maths, $125m minus $100m is close to the value of the two properties. The Lord works in mysterious ways. So does math.

WRT the lien and the year to pay: we're supposed to believe that this is out of the ordinary. It doesn't sound extraordinary to me. It sounds perfectly normal. But, maybe someone with some knowledge of these things would like to chime in and say how extraordinary it really is.

None of us know what sort of money LA has left. We can all think of a number, multiply it by three, subtract our age, divide it by the amount of change in our pocket and then multiply it by our height in inches. We could all be writing the Sunday Times rich list, if we wanted to. Point is, we're all going to bring our own biases to the calculation. Those of us who want LA to have suffered, we're going to come up with one figure. Those of us who want LA to still be a winner, we're going to come up with another number. Those of us who think it's possible to be rational about all this and sit somewhere in the middle, we're going to come up with another number.

But. Until someone releases the guy's tax files, none of us can have a *** clue what he's really worth. All we can do is play math.

 

[Scott SoCal]

Re: Re:

'End of an Error'

https://pvcycling.wordpress.com/2018/04/23/end-of-an-error-2/#comments

Seth Davidsons take on the settlement. I would say he is pretty damn close to the bone.

Let's play math:

If Lance started with something around $125M, and lost $100M including legal fees, it’s easy to see that the only money he has left are his two homes ($9.25M in Aspen, $7.5M in Austin), and the balance that he has stuck away in retirement accounts to insulate himself from bankruptcy should he really lose all the marbles. In fact, in his settlement agreement, he promises to make the payments within one year and to put a lien on his Austin home as collateral, guaranteeing that he will make the payments. Should the home sell before his settlement payments are made, he will collateralize his home in Aspen, again as a guarantee. I don’t think that Bill Gates would have to put a lien on his home to pay a $6M fine.

The $125m starting point is frequently quoted. Doesn't mean it's right, but it's generally accepted. So let's pretend. He started with $125m.

The $100m lost. There's two sources for that. The oldest is the claim that, on the day he accepted defeat, he threw away $100m in sponsorship contracts. In other words, he threw away $100m in future earnings. Not $100m of the $125m we're pretending he started with.

A second source for the $100m is LA himself, saying that over the last five years this thing has cost him $100m. What he means there, you decide. Actual cost or opportunity cost.

So, is it easy to see that the only money he has left is wrapped up in two houses? I think there is room for a difference of opinion. But it does help that, by the magic of maths, $125m minus $100m is close to the value of the two properties. The Lord works in mysterious ways. So does math.

WRT the lien and the year to pay: we're supposed to believe that this is out of the ordinary. It doesn't sound extraordinary to me. It sounds perfectly normal. But, maybe someone with some knowledge of these things would like to chime in and say how extraordinary it really is.

None of us know what sort of money LA has left. We can all think of a number, multiply it by three, subtract our age, divide it by the amount of change in our pocket and then multiply it by our height in inches. We could all be writing the Sunday Times rich list, if we wanted to. Point is, we're all going to bring our own biases to the calculation. Those of us who want LA to have suffered, we're going to come up with one figure. Those of us who want LA to still be a winner, we're going to come up with another number. Those of us who think it's possible to be rational about all this and sit somewhere in the middle, we're going to come up with another number.

But. Until someone releases the guy's tax files, none of us can have a **** clue what he's really worth. All we can do is play math.

We can assume he has at least $5m.

Iirc, he was a pretty savvy investor when he was racing. He’s probably better now than then. Depending on his portfolio - for a guy his age - he’s likely done reasonably well. I’ll imagine his net worth consists of substantially more than his real estate holdings. Not sure if he still has Mellow Johnnies or not but I think that place probably helps him pay bills. I’ll guess even further with the idea he probably has multiple streams of income from all sorts of business ventures. Wasn’t he a Honey Stinger equity holder?

$5M will hurt him... probably more on the pride side than the financial side. My $0.02.

 

[fmk_RoI]

Re: Re:

Iirc, he was a pretty savvy investor when he was racing. He’s probably better now than then. Depending on his portfolio - for a guy his age - he’s likely done reasonably well.

How many of the Tailwind people worked in stocks and shares? Which one was it is supposed to have made a fortune for Verbruggen in return for the backdated prescription? Funny how those who need LA to be down to peanuts forget all about this...

 

[aphronesis]

I think it’s been pretty clear to anyone paying attention with their emotions in check that the lost millions were potential income based on his untouched image. All the rest is wishful thinking from other people’s overwrought fantasy worlds.

 

[Benotti69]

Re: Re:

Iirc, he was a pretty savvy investor when he was racing. He’s probably better now than then. Depending on his portfolio - for a guy his age - he’s likely done reasonably well.

How many of the Tailwind people worked in stocks and shares? Which one was it is supposed to have made a fortune for Verbruggen in return for the backdated prescription? Funny how those who need LA to be down to peanuts forget all about this...

no need.

Someone blogged and it is not someone with no life experience either.

But pedantics needs apart....

 

[Benotti69]

Slight aside

Apparently the USPS settlement is with Armstrong only. The other defendants in the case are Johan Bruyneel and Tailwind sports.

 

[thehog]

Re:

Slight aside

Apparently the USPS settlement is with Armstrong only. The other defendants in the case are Johan Bruyneel and Tailwind sports.

Tailwind sorta settled already. The remains are out of jurisdiction. It’s over.

 

[Wiggo's Package]

Re:

'End of an Error'

https://pvcycling.wordpress.com/2018/04/23/end-of-an-error-2/#comments

Seth Davidsons take on the settlement. I would say he is pretty damn close to the bone.

Flat earth society better look away now

'Although various analysts have called Armstrong’s settlement a “win,” to his credit that’s a truckload of bullsh1t he doesn’t try to foist off on the rest of us.'

 

[RedheadDane]

I had hoped that the news of the settlement would have meant that we wouldn't hear anymore news about him.
Instead there's now a story on the CN front page about how Armstrong will have to go watch the Giro as a regular guy...

 

[Benotti69]

Re:

I had hoped that the news of the settlement would have meant that we wouldn't hear anymore news about him.
Instead there's now a story on the CN front page about how Armstrong will have to go watch the Giro as a regular guy...

He will be clickbait for a long long time.

 

[Alpe73]

Re:

'End of an Error'

https://pvcycling.wordpress.com/2018/04/23/end-of-an-error-2/#comments

Seth Davidsons take on the settlement. I would say he is pretty damn close to the bone.

Over.

Let that little yella wristband be a lesson to ya, B. :lol:

 

[PPAR-delta]

If USADA is the governing body that banned Lance for life, are they also the body that could remove his ban?

Interesting article in Colorado Springs newspaper about Lance and Tygart (the head of the USADA). Sounds like they have buried the hatchet and are now buddies. Favorite quote in the article

"Tygart wants Armstrong to join him on the noble crusade to cleanse sport of doping."

Sounds like Tygart is offering Lance a chance at "redemption."

http://gazette.com/david-ramsey-tra...rmstrong-chance-at-redemption/article/1624849

 

[Nomad]

Re: Official Lance Armstrong Thread: Part 3 (Post-Confession

I think Armstrong already has tried a "noble crusade to cleanse sport of doping" back in a 2007 seminar on how to prevent doping in pro sports. LOL. This is a classic!...one of Armstrong's finest moments in his infamous career. LOL.

https://youtu.be/AG4odJP-Zuw

Seriously now, I just wish Armstrong would go away. I'm tired of this LA crap and CN doing stories on him for clickbait. He's still a Chump and maintains that he was clean as a whistle in his 09 podium finish. Yeah...right, the guy still can't come clean about his entire doping career and thinks he's going to groom a new audience of followers because of the "new Armstrong persona." LA should just crawl in a hole somewhere, stay out of the public light and be very thankful that he didn't end up like Marion Jones, who went bankrupt & served Federal prison time:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7182969.stm

 

[fmk_RoI]

Re:

Interesting article in Colorado Springs newspaper about Lance and Tygart (the head of the USADA). Sounds like they have buried the hatchet and are now buddies. Favorite quote in the article

"Tygart wants Armstrong to join him on the noble crusade to cleanse sport of doping."

Sounds like Tygart is offering Lance a chance at "redemption."

http://gazette.com/david-ramsey-tra...rmstrong-chance-at-redemption/article/1624849

Boy and I glad I registered just to read that vapid piece of nonsense. "Tygart is a righteous nemesis", "Tygart wants Armstrong to join him on the noble crusade to cleanse sport of doping", "Armstrong, the ultimate doper, could transform into Armstrong, the ultimate warrior against doping", "Tygart can offer redeeming terms. Tygart can rescue Armstrong from pariah-hood". Donnez-moi le sick bag.

The only quote of note from Tygart seems to be: "It’s never too late.”

So is Tygart inviting LA in from the cold? Or is the journalist asking Tygart whether LA can come in from the cold?

What did we actually learn? That LA's Peace and Reconciliation Tour included a 2015 meeting in Denver with Tygart and now the two text or talk "once in a while." And they've hooked up somewhere else - somewhere "in the mountains" - since. Welcome to season 94 of The Bachelor.

 

[Parker]

Re: Re:

Interesting article in Colorado Springs newspaper about Lance and Tygart (the head of the USADA). Sounds like they have buried the hatchet and are now buddies. Favorite quote in the article

"Tygart wants Armstrong to join him on the noble crusade to cleanse sport of doping."

Sounds like Tygart is offering Lance a chance at "redemption."

http://gazette.com/david-ramsey-tra...rmstrong-chance-at-redemption/article/1624849

Boy and I glad I registered just to read that vapid piece of nonsense. "Tygart is a righteous nemesis", "Tygart wants Armstrong to join him on the noble crusade to cleanse sport of doping", "Armstrong, the ultimate doper, could transform into Armstrong, the ultimate warrior against doping", "Tygart can offer redeeming terms. Tygart can rescue Armstrong from pariah-hood". Donnez-moi le sick bag.

The only quote of note from Tygart seems to be: "It’s never too late.”

So is Tygart inviting LA in from the cold? Or is the journalist asking Tygart whether LA can come in from the cold?

What did we actually learn? That LA's Peace and Reconciliation Tour included a 2015 meeting in Denver with Tygart and now the two text or talk "once in a while." And they've hooked up somewhere else - somewhere "in the mountains" - since. Welcome to season 94 of The Bachelor.

I've never understood why Armstrong didn't appeal the decision to CAS to get a lighter sentence. I think he would have won and possibly also kept the two Tours which were outside the statutes of limitations.

 

[fmk_RoI]

Re: Re:

I've never understood why Armstrong didn't appeal the decision to CAS to get a lighter sentence. I think he would have won and possibly also kept the two Tours which were outside the statutes of limitations.

Arrogance?

Or he was still stuck at the denial stage of grief.

But I'd go with arrogance.

 

[Scott SoCal]

Re: Re:

I've never understood why Armstrong didn't appeal the decision to CAS to get a lighter sentence. I think he would have won and possibly also kept the two Tours which were outside the statutes of limitations.

Arrogance?

Or he was still stuck at the denial stage of grief.

But I'd go with arrogance.

Yep. Those seven MJ’s are still hanging up in his trophy room somewhere.

Donnez-moi le sick bag. :lol: Probably going to have to steal that one if you don’t mind.

 

[70kmph]

Armstrong saying Froome ban is coming and he will lose the Giro

https://www.flobikes.com/articles/6...hris-froome-will-be-banned-after-giro-ditalia

 

[fmk_RoI]

Re:

Armstrong saying Froome ban is coming and he will lose the Giro

https://www.flobikes.com/articles/6...hris-froome-will-be-banned-after-giro-ditalia

LA as the new Mystic Meg. Which'll come next, the newspaper column or a premium-rate phone line?

 

[fasthill]

Re:

Armstrong saying Froome ban is coming and he will lose the Giro

https://www.flobikes.com/articles/6...hris-froome-will-be-banned-after-giro-ditalia

One of those times when his opinion is as good as a Fred's.