Official Lance Armstrong Thread **READ POST #1 BEFORE POSTING**

[Race Radio]

Jail time? Also, what do you think happens to the evidence if there is a plea arrangement?

This will be interesting. Certainly the Feds have dug up a lot of information but will likely only file charges if they know they can get a conviction. It would be interesting to see all of the stuff they don't use.

Despite his many claims of victory in the courts Armstrong always follows the same strategy, aggressive smoke and mirrors media strategy followed by a settlement. His legal team is built with this purpose in mind. They will focus on weakening the governments case based on procedural grounds rather then facts. They will fill the media with missinformation. Ultimately they will settle.

The only way this goes to trial will be if the possible settlement is more then Armstrong can take and he decides to roll the dice on a jury trial. If that happens he will end up in prison with very little left in the bank.

The financial risks are huge. Given his current legal team his costs are running $3-400,000 per month. If this goes all the way to trial he could easily burn $10 million. The loss of the 2005 Tour title via a non-analytical positive would cost him $7.5 million, or more, from SCA. The Times of London will get their settlement back, with penalties. Thats another $1 million. The Qui Tam case also carries some financial risk, but others could be more exposed then Armstrong. Sponsors like RadioShack and Crap Beer will be gone, speaking engagements will be a fraction of what they were, if any.

The best thing Armstrong can do for himself, and the American taxpayer, is start working on a deal sooner rather then later.

 

[Topangarider]

If the "broken down bus" doping incident described by FL actually occurred, who from that team is going to take the stand in a federal trial and say that he/she was there and it never happened, knowing that numerous other riders likely would have already confirmed the incident under oath in GJ or open court?

Do you think riders want to be dragged into this case feeling pressure to or beibg asked to lie for LA?

Yes, witnesses such as FL and TH will be grilled as to their credibility etc but I can't imagine that a witness like Ekimov (called by LA for example) would enjoy being on the stand to defend his captain.

 

[Cimacoppi49]

This will be interesting. Certainly the Feds have dug up a lot of information but will likely only file charges if they know they can get a conviction. It would be interesting to see all of the stuff they don't use.

Despite his many claims of victory in the courts Armstrong always follows the same strategy, aggressive smoke and mirrors media strategy followed by a settlement. His legal team is built with this purpose in mind. They will focus on weakening the governments case based on procedural grounds rather then facts. They will fill the media with missinformation. Ultimately they will settle.

The only way this goes to trial will be if the possible settlement is more then Armstrong can take and he decides to roll the dice on a jury trial. If that happens he will end up in prison with very little left in the bank.

The financial risks are huge. Given his current legal team his costs are running $3-400,000 per month. If this goes all the way to trial he could easily burn $10 million. The loss of the 2005 Tour title via a non-analytical positive would cost him $7.5 million, or more, from SCA. The Times of London will get their settlement back, with penalties. Thats another $1 million. The Qui Tam case also carries some financial risk, but others could be more exposed then Armstrong. Sponsors like RadioShack and Crap Beer will be gone, speaking engagements will be a fraction of what they were, if any.

The best thing Armstrong can do for himself, and the American taxpayer, is start working on a deal sooner rather then later.

The Feds will not indict on anything that they are not 99% confident they will be able to convict on. I say that from experience with a criminal/civil case in the Northern District of CA. If Armstrong has half a brain in his head (as opposed to his attorneys whose advice Armstrong may or may not take) he will settle sooner rather than later. Two points will make him go to the mat, IMO, criminal forfeiture/restitution and prison time.

 

[Cimacoppi49]

Totally agree with that. But, if you have a group of people that claims they never saw LA dope, that is worth something. It creates doubt. The "how can all of this crap being going on and X never saw anything?" card.

LA's team will not just let a bunch of witnesses take the stand without first ripping them apart, and secondly they will parade a bunch of these other people up to say they never saw anything.

Inre to your jurisdiction comment....I am curious about the details surrounding Popo's GJ interview. Why didn't he tell them to fark off since he was not American? Is he an Italian citizen, and he was compelled to cooperate by the Italians?

Keep in mind that in Federal court you must produce a witness list prior to trial. That leaves open the possibility of motions to prevent Armstrong from calling some witnesses.

Popo was served with the GJ subpoena while he was in Austin. He was essentially told that his passport would be lifted and he would not be allowed to leave the country until he honored the GJ subpoena, which he did. Did he lie under oath? I'll bet he did. Will they get him back to the US? Problematic.

 

[MrRoboto]

Who was on the US Postal TdF team in in 2004?

 

[ChrisE]

This will be interesting. Certainly the Feds have dug up a lot of information but will likely only file charges if they know they can get a conviction. It would be interesting to see all of the stuff they don't use.

Despite his many claims of victory in the courts Armstrong always follows the same strategy, aggressive smoke and mirrors media strategy followed by a settlement. His legal team is built with this purpose in mind. They will focus on weakening the governments case based on procedural grounds rather then facts. They will fill the media with missinformation. Ultimately they will settle.

The only way this goes to trial will be if the possible settlement is more then Armstrong can take and he decides to roll the dice on a jury trial. If that happens he will end up in prison with very little left in the bank.

The financial risks are huge. Given his current legal team his costs are running $3-400,000 per month. If this goes all the way to trial he could easily burn $10 million. The loss of the 2005 Tour title via a non-analytical positive would cost him $7.5 million, or more, from SCA. The Times of London will get their settlement back, with penalties. Thats another $1 million. The Qui Tam case also carries some financial risk, but others could be more exposed then Armstrong. Sponsors like RadioShack and Crap Beer will be gone, speaking engagements will be a fraction of what they were, if any.

The best thing Armstrong can do for himself, and the American taxpayer, is start working on a deal sooner rather then later.

BS, IMO the odds of him losing a jury trial based upon what we know is a coin flip. And your prediction of the gloom for LA is fairytale land. SCA is a dead issue, and will not be re-opened. When somebody is prosecuted we don't all jump in a time machine and fix all of the past.

 

[Exroadman24902]

If everybody cheats in whatever field, do you care? Where do your morals kick in?

sorry, what I mean is people should lay off Armstrong a bit..there are very big names in the sport who got away with daylight robbery and many on here are willing to let that be, almost everyone doped..so I don't get angry at only one rider.

 

[ChrisE]

Keep in mind that in Federal court you must produce a witness list prior to trial. That leaves open the possibility of motions to prevent Armstrong from calling some witnesses.

Popo was served with the GJ subpoena while he was in Austin. He was essentially told that his passport would be lifted and he would not be allowed to leave the country until he honored the GJ subpoena, which he did. Did he lie under oath? I'll bet he did. Will they get him back to the US? Problematic.

Right, but why would any "witnesses" that didn't witness anything be scratched? I am not a lawyer but this would make no sense to me.

Understood Popo was jammed while in the US. I didn't remember the details about his passport. Thanks. What makes you think he lied under oath? Only good guys like FL and TH and GH tell the truth?

 

[Race Radio]

BS, IMO the odds of him losing a jury trial based upon what we know is a coin flip. And your prediction of the gloom for LA is fairytale land. SCA is a dead issue, and will not be re-opened. When somebody is prosecuted we don't all jump in a time machine and fix all of the past.

Today, maybe that is the case. 2 years from now when the complete story is more widely know it will be a much larger risk, especially if the foundation takes a hit.

This is not the Bonds case. Nobody is going to jail for Armstrong, except perhaps a co-conspirator. SCA is far, far, far from dead. Do you really think Bob Hamman is just going to let it slide? No way. No way Eki, or any other Euro rider, will come to the US to testify unless they are working with the Feds. The risk is just too high

 

[Exroadman24902]

Do you have a link to support your claims.....or are you just making them up?

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/banesto-named-in-drug-case-636949.html

 

[ChrisE]

sorry, what I mean is people should lay off Armstrong a bit..there are very big names in the sport who got away with daylight robbery and many on here are willing to let that be, almost everyone doped..so I don't get angry at only one rider.

We are on the same page. I catch hell for pointing out what you have just written, so I appreciate you taking some of that heat off of me.

It just seemed that you were saying you didn't care in an ethical sense. Everybody deserves to compete or work in a field without being compelled to break rules or cheat. That is the basis of a working society, else we have chaos.

It's funny that the culture of doping in cycling is as described. Rider's exchanging info in the pack, common knowledge of what is going on with the testing, the aversion to seeing your adversary get busted. That whole situation seems whack to me and it is hard for me to fathom this level playing field/circle the wagons way of thinking inre to cheating.

Why not put all of that peloton wide energy into riding clean with the same level playing field?

 

[blackcat]

This will be interesting. Certainly the Feds have dug up a lot of information but will likely only file charges if they know they can get a conviction. It would be interesting to see all of the stuff they don't use.

Despite his many claims of victory in the courts Armstrong always follows the same strategy, aggressive smoke and mirrors media strategy followed by a settlement. His legal team is built with this purpose in mind. They will focus on weakening the governments case based on procedural grounds rather then facts. They will fill the media with missinformation. Ultimately they will settle.

The only way this goes to trial will be if the possible settlement is more then Armstrong can take and he decides to roll the dice on a jury trial. If that happens he will end up in prison with very little left in the bank.

The financial risks are huge. Given his current legal team his costs are running $3-400,000 per month. If this goes all the way to trial he could easily burn $10 million. The loss of the 2005 Tour title via a non-analytical positive would cost him $7.5 million, or more, from SCA. The Times of London will get their settlement back, with penalties. Thats another $1 million. The Qui Tam case also carries some financial risk, but others could be more exposed then Armstrong. Sponsors like RadioShack and Crap Beer will be gone, speaking engagements will be a fraction of what they were, if any.

The best thing Armstrong can do for himself, and the American taxpayer, is start working on a deal sooner rather then later.

StrongArm will still be pretty ensconced cos he has to have atleast 50 mil net, perhaps 100 mill tucked away

Dont think he can ever be financially ruined unless he was all in Madoff.

 

[ChrisE]

Today, maybe that is the case. 2 years from now when the complete story is more widely know it will be a much larger risk, especially if the foundation takes a hit.

This is not the Bonds case. Nobody is going to jail for Armstrong, except perhaps a co-conspirator. SCA is far, far, far from dead. Do you really think Bob Hamman is just going to let it slide? No way. No way Eki, or any other Euro rider, will come to the US to testify unless they are working with the Feds. The risk is just too high

It was my understanding that after the award SCA could not be revisited. I alluded to this earlier in the thread; I thought this had a legal basis in that settlement. I am willing to be wrong.

Funny you bring up Bonds. One guy went to jail for him. Why? I don't know but he will probably be set for life when he gets out.

Ironically LA wouldn't be in this situation and would end up with alot more $ in his pocket if he would've brought FL onto RS lol. I bet he wishes he had now. FL would've cost less than $900/hour lol.

But, the Bonds trial shows us how stupid juries can be. Remember that.

 

[Anonymous]

sorry, what I mean is people should lay off Armstrong a bit..there are very big names in the sport who got away with daylight robbery and many on here are willing to let that be, almost everyone doped..so I don't get angry at only one rider.

Very big names who got away with daylight robbery? Should be easy to name names then...

Other champion dopers? Sure. How many of those riders have made 'friendship' payment(s) to the UCI in your opinion?

 

[sniper]

It was my understanding that after the award SCA could not be revisited. I alluded to this earlier in the thread; I thought this had a legal basis in that settlement. I am willing to be wrong.

Funny you bring up Bonds. One guy went to jail for him. Why? I don't know but he will probably be set for life when he gets out.

Ironically LA wouldn't be in this situation and would end up with alot more $ in his pocket if he would've brought FL onto RS lol. I bet he wishes he had now. FL would've cost less than $900/hour lol.

But, the Bonds trial shows us how stupid juries can be. Remember that.

I also read this somewhere, i.e. that there was no (sufficiently strong?) doping-clausule in the contract, so that it didn't really matter whether LA was doped or not and was lying or not, at least not to the SCA case.

to the other part in bold: +1

 

[Anonymous]

StrongArm will still be pretty ensconced cos he has to have atleast 50 mil net, perhaps 100 mill tucked away

Dont think he can ever be financially ruined unless he was all in Madoff.

Net worth and cash are very different things. Look at the hit he's taking with his Texas home.

I'd be very surprised if he has more than a few million in cash laying around, particularly given bank yeilds, etc. His money is invested and may not be real easy to access. That and he's likely to be a poor loan risk at the monment.

 

[Race Radio]

http://www.independent.co.uk/sport/general/banesto-named-in-drug-case-636949.html

Did you even read that link? It has nothing to do with your claim that nothing had been found.

 

[patricknd]

I also read this somewhere, i.e. that there was no (sufficiently strong?) doping-clausule in the contract, so that it didn't really matter whether LA was doped or not and was lying or not, at least not to the SCA case.

that was my understanding. the judge ruled that it was a non-isuue because it wasn't addressed in the contract.

 

[Race Radio]

It was my understanding that after the award SCA could not be revisited. I alluded to this earlier in the thread; I thought this had a legal basis in that settlement. I am willing to be wrong.

Funny you bring up Bonds. One guy went to jail for him. Why? I don't know but he will probably be set for life when he gets out.

Ironically LA wouldn't be in this situation and would end up with alot more $ in his pocket if he would've brought FL onto RS lol. I bet he wishes he had now. FL would've cost less than $900/hour lol.

But, the Bonds trial shows us how stupid juries can be. Remember that.

A fraud conviction and loss of the 2005 Tour title would help open the SCA settlement.

The Bonds case was amazingly weak and he still was convicted on one count and almost convicted on two others. The Feds will not make the same mistake with Lance

“Once the trial was over, I got on the Internet and saw how much incriminating evidence was out there that we weren’t allowed to see as jurors,” Steve Abfalter, a juror from Antioch, Calif., said.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/17/s...ict-jurors-will-be-watching-closely.html?_r=1

Armstrong could have 7 people testifying against him with direct witness testimony of doping. That is a big difference from Bonds. Add a paper trail for the money, witnesses of cash exchanges, and Wonderboy is in serious trouble

 

[Exroadman24902]

Did you even read that link? It has nothing to do with your claim that nothing had been found.

I was just saying, there are other big names the clinic good could gunning at but it seems the clinic only does big tex.

Re the link I posted, a rider says banesto had a doping regimen-it implicates Indurain, who went to Dr F too. Where are all the Indurain threads on clinic?

 

[ChrisE]

I also read this somewhere, i.e. that there was no (sufficiently strong?) doping-clausule in the contract, so that it didn't really matter whether LA was doped or not and was lying or not, at least not to the SCA case.

to the other part in bold: +1

No, I remember that the terms of the settlement were final. But whatever....it will all come out in the wash.

Yeah, in hindsight blowing off FL was a stupid move. He should have known FL was a loose cannon from his prior experiences with him. I bet if he could change one thing in his past about this whole situation it would have been to pay FL off to ensure he would stfu.

 

[mewmewmew13]

http://blog.nj.com/njv_kathleen_obrien/2011/05/lance_armstrong_--_the_cancer.html

Cancer card.

thanks Hog...
btw welcome back

 

[Stingray34]

There will be an avalanche of smoke, mirrors, and deliberate distortion.....followed by a plea deal. No way this goes to trial.

Lance Guns remains adamant he's a cleanskin. If he does opt for a plea, what is the reasoning behind "no, no, no, no....oh ok, yes"? Hubris, denial?

Factor that may influence a plea deal is the exorbitamt cost of going to trial and the inevitability Guns will face civil suits to reclaim monies.

 

[Hugh Januss]

We are on the same page. I catch hell for pointing out what you have just written, so I appreciate you taking some of that heat off of me.

It just seemed that you were saying you didn't care in an ethical sense. Everybody deserves to compete or work in a field without being compelled to break rules or cheat. That is the basis of a working society, else we have chaos.

It's funny that the culture of doping in cycling is as described. Rider's exchanging info in the pack, common knowledge of what is going on with the testing, the aversion to seeing your adversary get busted. That whole situation seems whack to me and it is hard for me to fathom this level playing field/circle the wagons way of thinking inre to cheating.

Why not put all of that peloton wide energy into riding clean with the same level playing field?

Doping has become the status quo in the pro peloton. I think if you don't want to play the game (even if you could keep up) then you are kind marginalized and not really part of the "gang".
I want to see Armstrong go down in flames in the hope that this will show others that there can be repercussions beyond an enforced two year holiday while continuing to train with your teammates and getting money from sponsors.
Even more if the UCI are as complicit in this as they seem then I hope that they are dragged down too, or at least removed from the drug testing loop.

 

[Anonymous]

No, I remember that the terms of the settlement were final. But whatever....it will all come out in the wash.

Yeah, in hindsight blowing off FL was a stupid move. He should have known FL was a loose cannon from his prior experiences with him. I bet if he could change one thing in his past about this whole situation it would have been to pay FL off to ensure he would stfu.

I'll bet he regrets coming out of retirement more. He won Nevada City. He's in a world of legal trouble.

Probably not what he was expecting.