Official thread: Giro d'Italia

[franciep10]

Ok since I'm first I get the obvious one ;-)

Levi!


For the less obvious and more fun:

Francisco Perez Sanchez

Maybe not for the Maglia Rosa but def a stage win maybe. Moving day here we come!

I'm gonna throw a curveball with this one but Lance Armstrong for at least one the stage or the Maglia Rosa, I know i'm gonna catch some heat for that but whatever

 

[Bala Verde]

I'm gonna throw a curveball with this one but Lance Armstrong for at least one the stage or the Maglia Rosa, I know i'm gonna catch some heat for that but whatever

Was thinking about that too.

1) so it's out of the way for him and (if MR) he'll get free pink instead of yellow exposure...
2) so it's out of the way for us

 

[jaylew]

Mick Rogers in pink tomorrow. Or Di Luca if he takes the stage, which is very possible. My pick for the stage is Cunego, though.

 

[slcbiker]

Mick Rogers might see pink, but he's not going to win the Giro.
There seems to be a significant pro-Rogers editorial bent on this site. I seem to remember an article a couple of days ago that implied he would have won an earlier TdF had he not crashed. And today we get one that says he's a dark horse favorite for the Giro.
Has he ever won a significant climbing stage? And he's a good TT rider but even in the days when he won the Worlds, the best TT riders from the Grand Tours (Lance for one) skipped the Worlds.

This Rogers promotion is as bad as the media's adulation of David Millar. Newsflash -- he didn't come clean until he was caught red-handed, and the hasn't really won much of anything since. Maybe the dope was all there was between a winner and a domestique.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Ooops. My bad. Thanks for the feedback.

TOMORROW IS MOVING DAY. Let's take some guesses.

DiLuca. Cunego. Soler.

I'm sure Lance would love to win the stage and get the MR. It would do wonders for his ego, and make it look like he made a serious effort, and give him exposure to try to get sponsorship. He's also done all he can to place himself high on GC so if he survives with the climbers to the top tomorrow, he's in the lead. However, no matter how hopped up on magic dust he is, I don't see it happening.

I expect Astana and maybe Liquigas to try to set a USPS like train going up over the Croce d'Aune at a fast speed to discourage attacks. As the grade isn't that steep, it's possible. But the stage isn't long enough, and I expect some serious and frequent assaults that will split things up, and drop Armstrong. And even more attacks on the Castrozza. We won't see huge time gaps, but they'll be there.

This stage, and the platform suits Cunego, DiLuca, Soler or Rodriguez. Maybe Basso or Levi.

Here's the profile:

 

[54x11Sprint]

Is Soler scare of riding in front? He is always in the back. I am not sure if he just prefers to loose time at the end in exchange of not falling down again (Not sure if that is walways true). (????)

not scared of the front - more likely it's his plan. loose enough time early on, and eventually he'll be far enough down that the field will let him get away one day solo to soak up all the KOM points and a stage win without chasing him down. Lots of riders that dream of the mtn breakaway loose time like this.

 

[cocosan]

I'm very interested in
Bike Trials seeing what Thomas Lövkvist can do. Is this Bike Trial Seller perhaps Bike Store his chance to show he can last an entire 3 week tour? Last year Gustav Larsson finished 14th in the Bike Shop Giro and throughout their careers lövkvist has been the bigger talent in my mind. He just need to grow into the role and perhaps that is now.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

That's some wicked spam there cocosan!

 

[jaylew]

Mick Rogers might see pink, but he's not going to win the Giro.
There seems to be a significant pro-Rogers editorial bent on this site. I seem to remember an article a couple of days ago that implied he would have won an earlier TdF had he not crashed. And today we get one that says he's a dark horse favorite for the Giro.
Has he ever won a significant climbing stage? And he's a good TT rider but even in the days when he won the Worlds, the best TT riders from the Grand Tours (Lance for one) skipped the Worlds.

This Rogers promotion is as bad as the media's adulation of David Millar.

I don't see him winning the overall, but I've been mentioning him as a dark horse candidate for over a month. As for the pro-Rogers bent of the site, I do think it used to be that way. I remember 5-6 years back you would always hear about him on this site as a possible Tour contender but he would never come through. I believe this was an Aussie-run site then and it was before the real emergence of Cadel. Honestly, I haven't noticed it so much in the last 2-3 years, though. I think in today's article they were just quoting the Silence Lotto DS' comments.

I didn't really become a believer in his GT chances until 2006 when he finished top 10 while working for Kloden. Of course the last 2 years have been lost with the crash and the Epstein Barr. With you on the WC TTs.

 

[Leopejo]

DiLuca. Cunego. Soler.

I'm sure Lance would love to win the stage and get the MR. It would do wonders for his ego, and make it look like he made a serious effort, and give him exposure to try to get sponsorship. He's also done all he can to place himself high on GC so if he survives with the climbers to the top tomorrow, he's in the lead. However, no matter how hopped up on magic dust he is, I don't see it happening.

I expect Astana and maybe Liquigas to try to set a USPS like train going up over the Croce d'Aune at a fast speed to discourage attacks. As the grade isn't that steep, it's possible. But the stage isn't long enough, and I expect some serious and frequent assaults that will split things up, and drop Armstrong. And even more attacks on the Castrozza. We won't see huge time gaps, but they'll be there.

This stage, and the platform suits Cunego, DiLuca, Soler or Rodriguez. Maybe Basso or Levi.

Actually the Croce d'Aune is the steepest, or better "less easy", climb - and the first climb of the Giro. I don't know if we'll see fireworks on TV, but for sure they'll be happening in the peloton, with everybody intent on watching the other contenders and sense their true strengths.

San Martino is even easier. My guess is a group of 20-30 riders, with all the favourites but one. The last half kilometer is flat and the stage will be won by a fast guy, like Di Luca or Cunego.

For a detail of the climbs check Gazzetta.

 

[Leopejo]

Today's first climb, Croce d'Aune, is known in Italy because of a race on November 4th, 1924.

At those times they had only two sprockets, one on each side of the rear wheel. At the base of a climb you were supposed to take the wheel off, turn it around and put it back, so to have a lighter gear.

That day average cyclist Tullio Campagnolo couldn't do that due to a frozen bolt and too cold fingers, losing every chance at victory.

Six years later, retired from cycling, he patented the quick release skewer that is still in use today. Other designs followed, mainly the modern-type rear derailleur in 1949.

 

[Mellow Velo]

While I agree with the prognosis, in general, I hope things kick off on Croce d'Aune.
To me, it looks a little bit too steep for a major train.
If it doesn't, it could look like Grand Central, on Castrozza.

Then, it becomes the LBL boys turf......

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Agree guys. Today, tomorrow, this entire Giro just isn't mountainous enough, isn't steep enough. I do think we'll see a group, with maybe a few seconds split here or there and a few riders dropped. Sticking with Cunego or DiLuca, for the reasons Leopejo listed.

Pretty much what it comes down to for me is ABL - Anybody But Lance. Don't want to see him win any stages, and don't want to see him in pink.

 

[Grater]

Of the stage will be one by someone who has had an injury interupted year who can climb and can chrono away from them if he stays with them depending on the pace on the climb. He showed us at last years TDF what he is capable of. What way to get back into form than winning a Giro stage?

Cancellara

I was leaning towards Rogers or Rodriguez all day and then I looked at the profile. This climb is in the capabilities of a fully fit Cancellara. Is he fully fit? Who knows. Can he win? Yes. Will he win? Probably not! Worth a try? Yes!

 

[alparsla]

(Beware, my first post)

It seems yesterday's big split cause some premature time differences between the contenders. Can we expect some surprise attacks on the last climb?

 

[595RED]

Would like to think Cunego will take the stage and think he has the conditioning over the past few races races to be in the position.
Lance should really not feature given his real lack of race miles, but who knows, he still poses the possibility to surprise that no one is will to deny outright.

 

[Bala Verde]

perhaps menchov will try to regain some time. It's a long climb at avg 5%, or half at 3% and the last half at 7%. If his russian diesel starts running...

 

[Zoncolan]

I can't see any big gaps opening today. It's not steep enough for that+there's a big day tomorrow.
Maybe Liquigas will try a one-two with Pellizotti and Basso.
Di Luca, Cunego and Garzelli for the stage if the break is caught. If not, hope big Jens takes it!

 

[Bala Verde]

This just in.

Soler was upset and angry with Team Columbia after stage 3. He said that one of the columbia riders punched him, which caused a massive crash. After the race Cavendish wanted to give him (Soler) a piece of his mind, the discussion quickly turned sour, and Cavendish exploded from anger, and is alleged to have thrown Soler's bike on the ground. A bunch of fans are supposed to have witnessed, and confirmed this scene...

here's the link:
http://www.wielerland.nl/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6030&Itemid=36

 

[BroDeal]

This just in.

Soler was upset and angry with Team Columbia after stage 3. He said that one of the columbia riders punched him, which caused a massive crash. After the race Cavendish wanted to give him (Soler) a piece of his mind, the discussion quickly turned sour, and Cavendish exploded from anger, and is alleged to have thrown Soler's bike on the ground. A bunch of fans are supposed to have witnessed, and confirmed this scene...

here's the link:
http://www.wielerland.nl/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=6030&Itemid=36

Roid rage or is Cav normally a jerk? And I thought McEwen was a piece of work...

 

[tiggertoo]

I don't want to grumble to no purpose, but of the seven thumbnail photos showing currently on CyclingNews Giro page, two of them are of Armstrong, and he isn't winning anything. Enough of this bloke, please. I'm fed up with the sight and sound of him.

 

[Leopejo]

A couple of worrying discussions in the post-stage Giro program on RAI:

- LPR complained that they did all the work. The other Italian teams replied that "it's not our duty. We are a smaller team, etc. etc.". Not good, as you need to make a stage hard from the beginning if you want to see action.

- Saronni, Cunego's boss, on today's AND tomorrow's stage said something, which I recall more or less like this: "this Giro has to be raced cleverly day by day, not with mindless attacks. It won't be won by going ahead of the group (=attacking), but by making people drop off the peloton". Hopefully the other climbers' teams have other plans for tomorrow.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Well, after today's rather dull "mountain" stage, with very little attacks, I'd hope the climbers will be more assertive tomorrow, but I don't know how effective. The stage is rather short, mostly a long descent, then just one long, moderate climb up to Susie.

Someone like Pelozotti could get away, or someone lower on GC. But I think the stage will be similar to today, because it's not that steep, and there's nothing challenging before it. So we'll see a large group of riders make their way up the climb for some ways. With probably 40 left by the time they hit the last 8k where it is steeper. I hope we'll start to see some real attacks from the true climbers then, and not just in the last 1k.

Here's the profile.

Stage 6 is long at 248km, with two moderate climbs in the middle. Perfect for someone to breakaway.

 

[Alpe d'Huez]

Currently on CyclingNews Giro page, two of them are of Armstrong, and he isn't winning anything. Enough of this bloke, please. I'm fed up with the sight and sound of him.

Preaching to the choir, reverend!

And I was sick of seeing him before his comeback.

- LPR complained that they did all the work. The other Italian teams replied that "it's not our duty. We are a smaller team, etc. etc.". Not good, as you need to make a stage hard from the beginning if you want to see action.

Interesting argument. But I would guess that LPR is implying that Liquigas waited until the last 10km to pull, while LPR was working the previous 100km. Agree that they should have made this Giro different. But this year has no mountains! I mean, not like Giros past, at all.

Saronni, Cunego's boss, on today's AND tomorrow's stage said something, which I recall more or less like this: "this Giro has to be raced cleverly day by day, not with mindless attacks. It won't be won by going ahead of the group (=attacking), but by making people drop off the peloton". Hopefully the other climbers' teams have other plans for tomorrow.

He's right in that you have to be clever. The reason why is that all the mountain stages, with probably exception to Stage 16, are going to be decided by seconds between the leaders, because, again, there are very few big climbs, only one fairly difficult mountain stage. A great deal of the race is going to come down to the Stage 12 ITT, which, since they cut the big mountain cols into France, and neutered the Blockhaus, is now about 15km too long.

 

[jaylew]

He's right in that you have to be clever. The reason why is that all the mountain stages, with probably exception to Stage 16, are going to be decided by seconds between the leaders, because, again, there are very few big climbs, only one fairly difficult mountain stage. A great deal of the race is going to come down to the Stage 12 ITT, which, since they cut the big mountain cols into France, and neutered the Blockhaus, is now about 15km too long.

What about the 19th stage? There should be some decent time differences there, don't you think?