Official Thread: Stage 16 TdF Martigny - Bourg-Saint-Maurice

[Publicus]

If I were LA, all I would worry about is marking A Schleck and Wiggins. He cant worry about AC. He's to strong. Schleck and Wiggins arent as strong as AC.
Saxo though knows he wont try and chase AC if Schleck is chasing. So they have that card to play to get A Schleck on the podium.

The problem is that he hasn't yet shown the ability to do so. And no clawing back to the group of contenders is not proof that he is stronger than either. Though I will be curious to see what happened to Frank Schleck today. Odd that he became dislodged.

Also, for A. Schleck to make podium he has to put time into Wiggins and Armstrong. So far he (A Schleck) hasn't been able to drop anyone. I guess he'll give it another go tomorrow. Curious where the fireworks will start on the Col d'Romme or if they will hold their fire until the Colombiere.

 

[amsterdamned]

In reality, probably most of them. The section where he caught them was not to severe, and like I have pointed out, Dave Z caught them.

I will say this, Mr. Armstrong looked like a completely different rider than he did Sunday...

bon sang mais c'est bien sur

 

[afpm90]

Speaking of Nibali and Liquigas: everyone tought that Roman Kreuziger would be the best Liquigas men in the Tour, but until now, i think,he's underperforming. And the curious thing is that he even said that he would be dissapointed if Basso was in the Tour de France taking away his leadership.

 

[Anonymous]

bon sang mais c'est bien sur

Dang, all that just to say "Eureka"...

(plus, because I don't speak french, the last comment of that post was, well, we should discuss this in The Clinic...cause I don't want another doping violation.)

 

[hfer07]

The problem is that he hasn't yet shown the ability to do so. And no clawing back to the group of contenders is not proof that he is stronger than either. Though I will be curious to see what happened to Frank Schleck today. Odd that he became dislodged.

Also, for A. Schleck to make podium he has to put time into Wiggins and Armstrong. So far he (A Schleck) hasn't been able to drop anyone. I guess he'll give it another go tomorrow. Curious where the fireworks will start on the Col d'Romme or if they will hold their fire until the Colombiere.

Agreed completely! Today's climb was just perfect for Armstrong to bridge that gap- A very long run with a comfortable pitch--but we'll see his reaction tomorrow when they take the last two climbs & see that is AC himself who's going to handle the Schleck threat...

I think the LA/A.Schleck battle is going to allow Wiggins to profit enormously

 

[Ninety5rpm]

Agreed completely! Today's climb was just perfect for Armstrong to bridge that gap- A very long run with a comfortable pitch--but we'll see his reaction tomorrow when they take the last two climbs & see that is AC himself who's going to handle the Schleck threat...

I think the LA/A.Schleck battle is going to allow Wiggins to profit enormously

Watch out also for Sastre. He's currently 2:15 behind Armstrong, 1:25 behind A. Schleck, but those kind of gaps might be typical tomorrow and on Ventoux...

 

[iceaxe]

This is essentially a practice year for LA. Next year he should win the tour judging by how well he has done this year with little training.

 

[ridelikethewind]

Didnt catch Bobke, but I am constantly appalled at Phil's obvious blunders. Sastre clearly bridged back to the peloton (shown on the tube) yet Phil continues to claim he is off the back.

Ligget and Sherwen are the Smashy and Nicey of cycling commentary. I much preferred the Eurosport pairings. They need to put someone a bit more incisive in there with them to instantly correct the duff info, ala Murray Walker/James Hunt in their F1 heyday.

MW 'and Schumacher has just overshot the corner, this makes the drivers competition veaaarrrryyy interesting'

JH 'No, that was his teammate Rubens Barrichello who just crashed'

p.s drivers names are not necessarilly correct

 

[Publicus]

This is essentially a practice year for LA. Next year he should win the tour judging by how well he has done this year with little training.

This wasn't essentially a practice year. He's given 100%. Maybe his 100% next year is better than this year, but nothing he's shown to date demonstrates that he can compete with the new generation who are also going to improve their 100% from this year to next.

Time waits for no man, not even Lance Armstrong.

 

[amsterdamned]

Dang, all that just to say "Eureka"...

(plus, because I don't speak french, the last comment of that post was, well, we should discuss this in The Clinic...cause I don't want another doping violation.)

yeah but it doesn't rim with blood

 

[amsterdamned]

This is essentially a practice year for LA. Next year he should win the tour judging by how well he has done this year with little training.

can you tell us what was his training this year?

thanks

 

[slcbiker]

Based on past history, Schleck and Sastre are both going to lose 1-2 minutes on Armstrong in the TT. Maybe on Wiggins and Kloden as well.
Based on this year, Schleck might be able to make up 3-4 minutes tomorrow and on Ventoux, I haven't seen that from Sastre.
If Lance hangs on tomorrow, I'd say podium spots 2 and 3 come down to Armstrong, Wiggins, Kloden and Schleck.
While Lance hasn't looked as strong this year, he has indicated in the past that he feels he has unfinished business on Ventoux. If he is still on the podium at that point, I'd imagine he will do everything short of attacking AC (and maybe even that).

 

[dadoorsron]

If I were LA, all I would worry about is marking A Schleck and Wiggins. He cant worry about AC. He's to strong. Schleck and Wiggins arent as strong as AC.
Saxo though knows he wont try and chase AC if Schleck is chasing. So they have that card to play to get A Schleck on the podium.

The only thing is for Schleck to have any chance at a podium spot is if he can drop lance for two plus minutes. Then Keep all the time he gained before the TT. Schleck will need a Cancellara type time. Who here thinks Schleck could pull off a Cancellara time and beat everyone by two minutes in the TT. It's not going to happen. Schleck will lose close to 2 minutes in the tt and he well be 4 plus minutes down going into Ventoux. Unless wiggins, Armstrong, Contador bonk and lose 4 plus minutes I don't think he has a chance. He will not be a true Tour Contender until he learns to TT better.

 

[colwildcat]

Based on past history, Schleck and Sastre are both going to lose 1-2 minutes on Armstrong in the TT. Maybe on Wiggins and Kloden as well.
Based on this year, Schleck might be able to make up 3-4 minutes tomorrow and on Ventoux, I haven't seen that from Sastre.
If Lance hangs on tomorrow, I'd say podium spots 2 and 3 come down to Armstrong, Wiggins, Kloden and Schleck.
While Lance hasn't looked as strong this year, he has indicated in the past that he feels he has unfinished business on Ventoux. If he is still on the podium at that point, I'd imagine he will do everything short of attacking AC (and maybe even that).

I can't help but feel that something has to give for Wiggins. Having never seen this type of form, I just don't see him coming out tomorrow with the leaders and hanging on Ventoux. I could be wrong, but I see him failing one of those days if there are heavy attacks.

 

[Pharazon]

I can't help but feel that something has to give for Wiggins. Having never seen this type of form, I just don't see him coming out tomorrow with the leaders and hanging on Ventoux. I could be wrong, but I see him failing one of those days if there are heavy attacks.

thats the thing though... he's something of an unknown...

if he time trials well he could beat everyone in it but Cancelera, but it's the day after the 5 peaks day, and if he stays at the front there he might be really tired...

if i had to make a guess i'd say he'll do ok tomorrow, i think he'll stick with the main group, but i half expect Schleck and Contador to be off down the road...

TT he'll pick up time on everyone in the GC i think, but i think he'll lose 4 or 5 mins on Ventoux and finish around 5th overall

 

[lean mean &green]

Lance Armstrong is not a bum. He is 2nd overall in the TdF while we are tapping out posts on a forum nobody reads. (No one will read this once it falls 2 pages deep in the thread either) I, for one, would love to trade places with him. I'd love to trade places with the lanterne rouge tho too. The only rider I wouldn't trade places with right now is Jens Voigt.

He is also not likely to ever win the Tour again. Saying he is a longshot is putting it mildly. He is not going to be better next year. He will be worse. His decline won't be rapid. It will be slow and steady like everyone else on the planet. I think he's more comfortable with that than both the fanboys and the haters realise.

Since he decided to return to the sport his attitude, demeanor, and the way he has interacting with folks in and out of the sport have been admirable. He has grown a lot. I like him more now than I used to and more than I did at the start of the tour. Of course looking at the bottom of everyone of my posts should already explain that.

I'm going to go ride now despite the threat of rain.

 

[Doug Laipple]

Armstrong's surge back to the peloton reminded me of the old bubonic plague victim in "The Holy Grail" saying (in response to the call, "Bring out your dead!"), "I'm not quite dead yet ... I think I'll go for a walk."

 

[Parrot23]

Also, for A. Schleck to make podium he has to put time into Wiggins and Armstrong. So far he (A Schleck) hasn't been able to drop anyone.

And doesn't he need minutes because of the upcoming TT? Also I think he hesitated today when they finally had Contador and Kloeden alone. That's not gonna win the Tour when he need minutes.

Graham Watson's caption for this pic was:

"The two Schlecks seem unsure of what to do next..."

Surprising because Riis is usually crystal clear.

Wiggins is the "joker" in the pack: surely he's gonna crack as at Giro. But Astana has said they want to put time into Wiggo; they need to if Schleck isn't able to drop anyone by much on the mountains. Best tactic prob. would be to send Kloeden up the road.

 

[autologous]

Agreed completely! Today's climb was just perfect for Armstrong to bridge that gap- A very long run with a comfortable pitch

funny then, that when Lance was interviewed he said he couldn't bridge immediately because it was too shallow to make a break and drop anyone, so he waited until a section where he knew the pitch steepened to make a move that would stick. I guess that means that he thought the "long run with a comfortable pitch" was not entirely ideal for him.

But, he was there, has ridden the road before, has raced one or two of these kind of stages, so why would we bother to listen to his opinion?

I agree completely! with you, instead. Yeah, that's it.

 

[klodifan]

Thanks for the clarity. The New York Times lost its journalistic integrity a long, long time ago.

Not quite...

"Ha sido un gran campeón y lo sigue siendo y hoy lo ha vuelto a demostrar. Por primera vez hemos hablado en carrera. No le he necesitado, pero estoy seguro de que si hubiera estado en problemas me habría ayudado", afirmó. "Cuando ha dicho que se pone a mi servicio demuestra todavía más grandeza", agregó.

Translation:

Regarding Lance...

"He's been a great champion and he still is as he's shown today. For the first time, we've talked during the race. Today I didn't need his help, but I am sure that if I were in trouble, he would have helped me." Contador stated.
"By saying he is willing to help me, he shows his greatness."

Looks like the New York Times guys need to step their game up.

 

[klodifan]

Or "A dog always returns to its own vomit."

Hey, now! Do we really need to bring man's best friend into the mix?

 

[Anonymous]

Hey, now! Do we really need to bring man's best friend into the mix?

Hey, I love 'em, but they will eat their own vomit...as well as other things on occasion. Actually, I had a girlfriend who's dog would do anything he could to get to dirty cat litter. It was DISGUSTING.

 

[iceaxe]

This wasn't essentially a practice year. He's given 100%. Maybe his 100% next year is better than this year, but nothing he's shown to date demonstrates that he can compete with the new generation who are also going to improve their 100% from this year to next.

Time waits for no man, not even Lance Armstrong.

He seemed to be overconfident and too easygoing. Next year he will be more dialed into how much work he has to do. We all give 100 percent when the lion is chasing us. Its the training that needs the 100 percent too. If he can finish in the top ten this year I will be darn impressed.

 

[knewcleardaze]

I guess? I am truly disgusted at the incredible amount of disrespect they have shown everyone else in the Tour. It makes me want to puke.

As per Versus commentary, there are only Astana and Columbia. And the only contenders are Armstrong and Contador. It's truly pathetic. I'll have a look at my Tour start list to see what riders are where.

 

[klodifan]

Hey, I love 'em, but they will eat their own vomit...as well as other things on occasion. Actually, I had a girlfriend who's dog would do anything he could to get to dirty cat litter. It was DISGUSTING.

I'm guessing it was a smaller breed.