The beast
The stage we’ve all been waiting for since the 2009 Tour route was announced late last year - a 167 km odyssey to the top of the mythical Mt Ventoux, the giant of Provence.
The first 130 km are really just a warm-up before the ascent of the beast begins. Three category 3 climbs and one category 4 climb will be swatted like flies by the big guns. But as the kilometres tick by and the Ventoux draws inexorably closer, mouths will go dry and guts begin to tighten as thoughts turn to the pain that awaits.
Ironically, the two most attacking climbers of the Tour are the two who will ride most defensively tonight. Contador and Andy Schleck just need to be patient, follow the right wheels and their 1st and 2nd places on GC are all but guaranteed. Armstrong, Wiggins, Kloden and Frank Schleck are the riders who must attack if they want to find their way onto the podium. There has been some conjecture as to whether Contador will help Armstrong today. The most likely answer is no - because he doesn’t need to. Though, should the opportunity present for Contador to gift Armstrong the stage win, that just might happen. Why? Because that’s some powerful mojo - the young bull gifting his older, weaker rival one last moment in the sun.
I anticipate Frank Schleck will be the most aggressive today. He has much to gain and 3rd place on GC is not out of reach. Unlike Contador, brother Andy is likely to lend a hand to Frank if possible but not at the expense of his own 2nd place. Surprisingly, I think it will be Cadel Evans who may prove to be Schleck the elder’s most likely ally. Evans rode well in the ITT with an 85 per cent effort and was an animator in the failed breakaway yesterday. He is motivated to stamp himself on a stage and has won on the Ventoux before.
Wiggins may surprise everyone and is a definite chance to grab 3rd place from Armstrong. The finishing climb on Ventoux presents him with an opportunity to measure his effort and without the usual attacks and accelerations coming from Contador and Andy Schleck there is some chance he may be able to wind up his big engine and power away from his rivals. Kloden looks tired and is most likely going to be cast in the role of Armstrong’s donkey - carrying him to the top of Ventoux and 3rd overall.
Reports in from our man in Provence @beltramed indicate that the wind is really blowing. This may make it even more difficult for individual riders to attack and ride away. Meaning that there may be a GC group finish of sorts without large amounts of time lost and much change on the overall. Well know in a matter of hours.
My tip: Frank Schleck. He has much to gain from riding attackingly - a stage win and 3rd overall are great motivators. Contador could - because Contador can. Evans may surprise too. And Carlos Sastre is the joker in the pack.
More here:
http://tinyurl.com/l2jzgd including a blow-by-blow eyewitness account of climbing Ventoux.
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