38/9=4.2K per person, if everyone takes an equal share in the TTT. A TTT is a team effort, so your team is only as good as the weakest links. Since the time of the fifth rider counts, a well balanced team that doesn't drop the weaker riders like ripe plums from a tree, is a prerequisite to do well.
A team with 'sprinters' could do well, so obviously Columbia is one to reckon with. Given the technical course, which is geared more towards fast accelarations to get back up to speed, constant changing rythm, I think Columbia has a lot of potential in theory. The team also has a number of power houses for the steeper sections, with Kirchen, Rogers, Martin, and Monfort. Do they have a weaker link? Perhaps the weakest link is actually also their strong suit, namely the sprinter's contingent (Cavendish, Renshaw, Eisel). The elevation profile shows that the hill is in the first section, followed by a descent and a flat where the sprinters would eventually have to excel. The questions are, will they still be there, has this not slowed the team down to keep them attached, and with how much juice left to put down the hammer? Another problem is, will the sprinters want to go full throttle, as stage five could also be a stage for Cavendish.
Astana, with the bigger, longer-distance TT specialists (4 in top 10 Monaco) could have some problems with the short accelerations, twists and turns. On the other hand, the elevation profile also indicates lots of false flats, ups and downs, which requires more endurance to keep the rythm high throughout the entire stage. This seems better tailored to the guys on the Astana team. The team is fresh, eager, motivated, and ready to put some distance between them and the rest of the GC contenders. As Levi, Contador, Kloden, Armstrong showed in the 15.5K TT, technical sections can still be ridden well by TT specialists. I think they are the number one favorite to take the stage. Weakest links, Murayev, Rast, and perhaps chronically out of shape Popovich.
Garmin has a very well balanced team, with guys like Farar, Dean on the one hand, as well as Zabrisky, Vandevelde, Millar and Wiggins (4 in the top 20 in Monaco) on the other hand. Weakest link, Farar, Dean and Maaskant in the first section.
Saxo is probably the last team that could vie for victory. They had 3 riders (Cancellara, Schleck, Larson) placed in the top 20 of the first TT. Nonetheless, they have had to defend yellow the past 2 days, so that wasted at least some necesarry energy. However, keeping yellow is something that strongly motivates a team, as well as positioning Schleck well for the mountains. Weakest link(s)? Cancellara if he goes too fast, otherwise F.Schleck (does he need to finish with the team to safeguard a good position before the mountains?), Chris Sorensen and O'Grady.
Liquigas could be a top 5 surprise, with guys like Nibali, Kreuziger as absolute specialist (top 10 Monaco), and Pellizotti, Vanotti, Vandborg as solid TTers (finishing within 7s of each other in Monaco) who keep the train running smooth. Weakest links? Bennati, Kushynski, Willems...
Rabobank has a solid team with at least 6 men that can ride a similar rythm/speed. Monaco showed that Menchov is awfully out of shape, but it could be a great motivator to get the train back on track. Monaco also showed that Ten Dam, Garate, Menchov, Gesink, Posthuma and Clement were positioned within 45s of each other. That means Flecha, Freire and Nierman are the weaker links.
Silence Lotto seems to be the team to lose given their captain's abilities individually. Evans put in a great performance in Monaco, but his team was far from coherent. #2 Vandebroeck at 1.11 and #3 Wegelius at 1.49 were separated by 38s, followed by the 'unknown' Delage at 1.55. If Grabsch can get his act together, these 5 could be the engine of the team. Van Avermaet, Schierlinkcx, Lloyd and Vansummeren, although they might not have put in a great Monaco effort, highlight potential weaknesses.
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