Teams & Riders Official Wout Van Aert thread

[Berflamand]

He did as I expected, he was very strong and a clear level above the entire peloton (bar MvdP and Pogi). He finished 4 minutes (!!) in front of the next guy who wasn't in the group that got more than 3 minutes before the Big 3 launched (Benoot at 5:12 from Pogi).

It's just that he was up against a guy for whom De Ronde seems to be tailermade and an absolute freak of nature who manages to even drop that guy (and everyone else) on his own terrain.

 

[Blanco]

He should not have been that much weaker, which I believe was as much mental as physical, thus he choked (which means you do not rise to the occassion). And saying he "didn't need to prove anything" was merely a facade that only demonstrated his own insecurity.

What's mental in not being able to follow stronger guys? It's not that he hesitated or something, he just couldn't. Same as Van Der Poel couldn't follow Pogacar later.

 

[Blanco]

He was the best in the Olympic road race imho. But he didn't win there either.

His palmares doesn't live up to his status. Nevertheless he should have won at least two top tier races by now, be it Ronde, Roubaix, Worlds or Olympics. But instead he became 2nd at the 2020 worlds, 2nd at the Olympics, 2nd at 2020 Ronde, 2nd at 2022 Roubaix, 3rd at 2022 Liège... There are lesser riders than him with bigger wins. Pedersen won WCC, Asgreen won Ronde, Colbrelli, Van Baarle won Roubaix. Van Avermaet won Roubaix and Olympics. But those guys all did that when they weren't the big favorites. Look how Asgreen, winner only 2 years ago while beating Van der Poel, was allowed to go in a dangerous break. Same for Pedersen yesterday. Nobody would allow Van Aert to do that, because even while he may be ridiculed as "always 2nd best" he is simply to good for his own good, but on the other hand he lacks something that can help convert those 2nd places into 1st places. He's way too good to be an underdog, but he's too much of an allrounder to be considered the top favorite in these races. And yet everybody always considers him the or a top favorite. He does as well, as does his team. In the meantime years are slipping away.

And i have to wonder, if he doesn't have a better chance at winning Liège than winning Ronde.

Van Avermaet was a major force in classics in his prime, to other I agree completely.

 

[Volderke]

I said it in the Ronde topic, and I'll say it again: this was, physically, the best version of WvA, and he lost because 2 guys were better, and Pog's KOM on Kwaremont proves this isn't because WvA was weak, but because Pog set a higher standard.

Still, WvA makes small mistakes that, in this race, cost him the podium: he wasn't mentally prepared for a MvdP attack on Kruisberg, and he rode naively thinking MvdP and Pogacar would work with him until they caught the breakaway. That didn't happen, because MvdP has that killer instinct (and ofcourse a bit better legs at that moment). I already noticed on the 2nd Kwaremont, that MvdP only followed WvA's wheel and didn't bother too much trying to force it on Kwaremont to counter Pogacar. People thought MvdP maybe didn't have his best day, but ofcourse this was MvdP playing the game of waiting, pretending he isn't the strongest,... He does that so well and every time WvA seems to take the bait. There was another strange moment when Laporte drove to Pogacar and started working. In hindsight (but at the moment as well), it looked stupid to give Pogacar a bit more energy this way...

If WvA rode it a bit smarter, he wouldn't have worked as hard with MdvP and Pogacar until the last Kwaremont, as he had a team mate up front (MvdP didn't, and Pogacar was clearly very eager to win the race and wasn't counting on Trentin to do so), and he would have been a bit more into saving mode + more attentive on the climbs, so he would have made it with Pogacar and MvdP to the Kwaremont. If so, he would have probably finished 3rd, solo. Ofcourse that's hardly better than contesting the sprint for 3rd, but it also goes to show that even with perfect tactics, WvA was doomed to ride for 3rd place in this race.

 

[Red Rick]

I said it in the Ronde topic, and I'll say it again: this was, physically, the best version of WvA, and he lost because 2 guys were better, and Pog's KOM on Kwaremont proves this isn't because WvA was weak, but because Pog set a higher standard.

Still, WvA makes small mistakes that, in this race, cost him the podium: he wasn't mentally prepared for a MvdP attack on Kruisberg, and he rode naively thinking MvdP and Pogacar would work with him until they caught the breakaway. That didn't happen, because MvdP has that killer instinct (and ofcourse a bit better legs at that moment). I already noticed on the 2nd Kwaremont, that MvdP only followed WvA's wheel and didn't bother too much trying to force it on Kwaremont to counter Pogacar. People thought MvdP maybe didn't have his best day, but ofcourse this was MvdP playing the game of waiting, pretending he isn't the strongest,... He does that so well and every time WvA seems to take the bait. There was another strange moment when Laporte drove to Pogacar and started working. In hindsight (but at the moment as well), it looked stupid to give Pogacar a bit more energy this way...

If WvA rode it a bit smarter, he wouldn't have worked as hard with MdvP and Pogacar until the last Kwaremont, as he had a team mate up front (MvdP didn't, and Pogacar was clearly very eager to win the race and wasn't counting on Trentin to do so), and he would have been a bit more into saving mode + more attentive on the climbs, so he would have made it with Pogacar and MvdP to the Kwaremont. If so, he would have probably finished 3rd, solo. Ofcourse that's hardly better than contesting the sprint for 3rd, but it also goes to show that even with perfect tactics, WvA was doomed to ride for 3rd place in this race.

I saw Pogs Strava file and he didn't set the OK KOM.

 

[KOM]

He is at 100 %. His problem is how hard Pogi makes the race.

He might be i dont know, but to think back to what he did in the last 2 tours and how completely freakishly outlandish that was, its hard for me to think any version of vA that gets dropped is at 100% (exageratting but only slightly)

 

[Volderke]

I saw Pogs Strava file and he didn't set the OK KOM.

Watch more closely. Start of cobbles to the village = KOM. That's were he made the difference.

Oude Kwaremont | Strava Ride Segment in Kluisbergen, Vlaams Gewest, Belgium

www.strava.com

He consolidated in the second part. His overal time was 2nd ever, after Asgreen 2022.
But for now it's hard to see as some sore loser has flagged his ride (but you know he has the KOM as he rode away from WvA and Sheffield who are 2nd and 3rd.

🏆 💥 💥 🏆 | Strava

View Tadej Pogačar Pogi's ride on April 2, 2023 | Strava

www.strava.com

Anyway, even his 2nd overal, which was 1 second less that Asgreen 2022, was worth a KOM, and you and me know that in 2022 he was faster than Asgreen.
https://www.strava.com/segments/1092383?filter=overall
He rode KOM times on the Kwaremont this year, and so it's no shame if you're not able to follow.

 

[Red Rick]

Watch more closely. Start of cobbles to the village = KOM. That's were he made the difference. He consolidated in the second part. His overal time was 2nd ever, after Asgreen 2022.
But for now it's hard to see as some sore loser has flagged his ride.

🏆 💥 💥 🏆 | Strava

View Tadej Pogačar Pogi's ride on April 2, 2023 | Strava

www.strava.com

Don't remember which exact segment it was but IIRC he was like 7s behind the record.

Thing is 2nd Kwaremont/Pater are extremely fatigued efforts, so the climbing times are a poor metric, unless we claim Pogacar was almost as good as Asgreen last year when in reality Asgreen himself was dying on Pogs wheel that year.

There was also a strong tailwind on that section but I don't remember if there was one last year, I think there was but maybe less strong.

Overall RVV is one of the harder races to take away much from Strava diving.

 

[Volderke]

Don't remember which exact segment it was but IIRC he was like 7s behind the record.

Thing is 2nd Kwaremont/Pater are extremely fatigued efforts, so the climbing times are a poor metric, unless we claim Pogacar was almost as good as Asgreen last year when in reality Asgreen himself was dying on Pogs wheel that year.

There was also a strong tailwind on that section but I don't remember if there was one last year, I think there was but maybe less strong.

Overall RVV is one of the harder races to take away much from Strava diving.

Last year there was a strong tailwind, this year as well.
Last year Asgreen had the KOM on both the first and overall segments, but Pogi went faster.
This year Pogi was faster on the first segment (as per strava) and overall he was just slightly behind Asgreen (cobbled segment).

I feel it's a very good metric as last year and this year the circumstances (wind) were about the same, but the road was worse (more slippery), and the temperature was worse. So if Pogacar did about the same effort, in the range of the overal records, it shows that it's no shame if you're not able to follow this. It's like saying you lost the 100 meter sprint against Usain Bolt, while Usain Bolt had one of his best 2-3 times on the 100 meter. That's what happened to van Aert (and to some extend to MvdP).

 

[SafeBet]

But for now it's hard to see as some sore loser has flagged his ride

WVA himself?

Just kidding, he was a beast yesterday but just a level below the other two. His time will come, I guess, but winning a race like De Ronde when you're not the strongest is extremely complicated. Roubaix is a different matter (and Pog won't be there... this year). I'm starting to feel a bit sad for him.

 

[Red Rick]

Last year there was a strong tailwind, this year as well.
Last year Asgreen had the KOM on both the first and overall segments, but Pogi went faster.
This year Pogi was faster on the first segment (as per strava) and overall he was just slightly behind Asgreen (cobbled segment).

I feel it's a very good metric as last year and this year the circumstances (wind) were about the same, but the road was worse (more slippery), and the temperature was worse. So if Pogacar did about the same effort, in the range of the overal records, it shows that it's no shame if you're not able to follow this. It's like saying you lost the 100 meter sprint against Usain Bolt, while Usain Bolt had one of his best 2-3 times on the 100 meter. That's what happened to van Aert (and to some extend to MvdP).

Is this the 2nd or 3rd Kwaremont this year?

I think there's some factors more improtant than surface quality and temperature on the Kwaremont, as the steep section is short enough that the speed at which you start it gets quite important.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He was the best in the Olympic road race imho. But he didn't win there either.

His palmares doesn't live up to his status. Nevertheless he should have won at least two top tier races by now, be it Ronde, Roubaix, Worlds or Olympics. But instead he became 2nd at the 2020 worlds, 2nd at the Olympics, 2nd at 2020 Ronde, 2nd at 2022 Roubaix, 3rd at 2022 Liège... There are lesser riders than him with bigger wins. Pedersen won WCC, Asgreen won Ronde, Colbrelli, Van Baarle won Roubaix. Van Avermaet won Roubaix and Olympics. But those guys all did that when they weren't the big favorites. Look how Asgreen, winner only 2 years ago while beating Van der Poel, was allowed to go in a dangerous break. Same for Pedersen yesterday. Nobody would allow Van Aert to do that, because even while he may be ridiculed as "always 2nd best" he is simply to good for his own good, but on the other hand he lacks something that can help convert those 2nd places into 1st places. He's way too good to be an underdog, but he's too much of an allrounder to be considered the top favorite in these races. And yet everybody always considers him the or a top favorite. He does as well, as does his team. In the meantime years are slipping away.

And i have to wonder, if he doesn't have a better chance at winning Liège than winning Ronde.

Against this Pogacar, he doesn't have a chance in Liège

 

[Winnen]

I honestly think entire Jumbo team has problems with long races

Van Baarle doesn't. He has shown multiple times that he can handle the longer races. And I think he can profite immensly from being in the same team as Wout. If he is recovered I expect him to do well in P-R.

 

[Volderke]

Is this the 2nd or 3rd Kwaremont this year?

I think there's some factors more improtant than surface quality and temperature on the Kwaremont, as the steep section is short enough that the speed at which you start it gets quite important.

2nd Kwaremont (same as Asgreen when Asgreen set the KOM), now visible again:

🏆 💥 💥 🏆 | Strava

View Tadej Pogačar Pogi's ride on April 2, 2023 | Strava

www.strava.com

So he missed the overal cobbled KOM by 1 second (compared to Asgreen last year, but we know it's actually compared to himself last year).
Just look at his Kwaremont + Paterberg, something he did all by himself: https://www.strava.com/segments/7200453?filter=overall
And his first part of the Kwaremont was nothing else than stellar:

Oude Kwaremont | Strava Ride Segment in Kluisbergen, Vlaams Gewest, Belgium

www.strava.com

There is an enormeous gap with all other riders. You could argue that's because no one else is so crazy to attack on the first part of Kwaremont. But the fact Pogacar did this, and consolidated in the second part, shows he has the guts to go for it.

last part of Kwaremont (where most of the action happens in other races) he was only 3 seconds behind the KOM: https://www.strava.com/segments/7240116?filter=overall

 

[Aimar16]

I said it in the Ronde topic, and I'll say it again: this was, physically, the best version of WvA, and he lost because 2 guys were better

Last spring he seemed stronger to me than this year. He would certainly have been the biggest favourite before the race, this year he was only the third biggest favourite. Last year when he came back after Covid at Roubaix, with a lack of racing and training, he still looked like a monster and the strongest in the peloton.

If WvA rode it a bit smarter, he wouldn't have worked as hard with MdvP and Pogacar until the last Kwaremont, as he had a team mate up front (MvdP didn't, and Pogacar was clearly very eager to win the race and wasn't counting on Trentin to do so)

Maybe if Laporte had been up front, but van Hooydonck might have been the worst excuse ever

 

[Valanga]

Maybe if Laporte had been up front, but van Hooydonck might have been the worst excuse ever

I don't think van Aert needs an excuse for such behavior. He can just say "you two phenomena are clearly better than me, I'll just wheelsuck as long as possible". I would be OK with that - wheelsucking is a valid tactic when you're facing someone who is clearly stronger. Problem is, he's probably not OK yet with admitting that.

 

[Didinho]

Wout said himself there was nothing wrong with his form/legs. This was just a very long hard fast race with 54km final where Pogi and Mathieu went hard uphill everytime. You can't compare this to a 3 week GT where he got himself some restdays and recovers better than most of the peloton. With his abilities he could win almost every day in a GT. Even if he was not good in week 1, he went on to win 3 stages after. The rest would fade away and he became better.

In these 1 day races above 250km in this period, where everybody is peaking he will always be a little bit behind those 2, like previous years. Pogi learned from last year, Mathieu had a normal preparation to this. Even in the shorter E3, you knew this would happen if the final was long and hard. But he was the 3th strongest, miles ahead the rest. No shame. He's got more chance in Roubaix. I expect an angry flying Mathieu, it's up to him to follow or play tactics with team mates.

 

[KZD]

Van Aert must be really hoping that Pogačar skips RVV in the next years now that he has won it. Holding on to Van der Poel its already a difficult task but still possible for a top shape Van Aert (like 2020) but throw in Pogačar in the mix like this year and the chances of him winning his home monument for which he was hyped during years become much slimmer.

 

[Aimar16]

I don't think van Aert needs an excuse for such behavior. He can just say "you two phenomena are clearly better than me, I'll just wheelsuck as long as possible". I would be OK with that - wheelsucking is a valid tactic when you're facing someone who is clearly stronger. Problem is, he's probably not OK yet with admitting that.

Of course, in some situations there is no problem with that, it is a legitimate tactic. But I don't think it would have been appropriate in this situation. There was still a strong group up front with a healthy lead. If the big 3 had been leading the race it would have been a no-brainer, especially after E3 Harelbeke.

 

[QuickZulu]

I still think he starts as favourite at P-R this weekend. For me that's the one monument that seems to suit him to the T.

He just needs luck on his side when it comes to mechanicals.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I still think he starts as favourite at P-R this weekend. For me that's the one monument that seems to suit him to the T.

He just needs luck on his side when it comes to mechanicals.

I don't think he will win. In roubaix, unless you are the clear strongest in the race, you can't win because the name of WVA is too big. Eventually, tactics will play a major role and he will be screwed just like Sagan or Cancellara in their prime (sometimes). If he wins, it is probably that he dropped everyone from the main group.

 

[Valanga]

Of course, in some situations there is no problem with that, it is a legitimate tactic. But I don't think it would have been appropriate in this situation. There was still a strong group up front with a healthy lead. If the big 3 had been leading the race it would have been a no-brainer, especially after E3 Harelbeke.

But that's the thing, is there really a big 3? Or is it more a big 2.5...

 

[Peyroteo94]

Last spring he seemed stronger to me than this year. He would certainly have been the biggest favourite before the race, this year he was only the third biggest favourite. Last year when he came back after Covid at Roubaix, with a lack of racing and training, he still looked like a monster and the strongest in the peloton.



Maybe if Laporte had been up front, but van Hooydonck might have been the worst excuse ever

He seemed stronger because MVP and Pogacar weren't racing in E3 and GW. Of course he will seem unbeatable and invencible because he is racing against second tier contenders. This year, If you took off MVP and Pogi from Harelbeke, what do we get? Probably the same scenario we saw in GW and he would look unbeatable just like last year. The difference is this year he had his 2 biggest opponents in prep races like Harelbeke.

 

[Extinction]

What's mental in not being able to follow stronger guys? It's not that he hesitated or something, he just couldn't. Same as Van Der Poel couldn't follow Pogacar later.

Mental is part of being in top shape in the key/critical moments, which Wout has trouble with in the biggest one-day goals. His highest levels have been at the Tour, where he doesn't have the real pressure of the team. He thus seems to bend somewhat when it's all on his shoulders and fails to meet the expectations.

 

[Aimar16]

But that's the thing, is there really a big 3? Or is it more a big 2.5...

I think it's a big 3, and each has its strengths and weaknesses compared to the other.

He seemed stronger because MVP and Pogacar weren't racing in E3 and GW. Of course he will seem unbeatable and invencible because he is racing against second tier contenders. This year, If you took off MVP and Pogi from Harelbeke, what do we get? Probably the same scenario we saw in GW and he would look unbeatable just like last year. The difference is this year he had his 2 biggest opponents in prep races like Harelbeke.

No direct WvA vs Pog/MvdP comparison, but Wout was super strong at Paris-Nice last year, this year's Tirreno was rather poor. Wout barely came out of Covid and looked stronger than MvdP at Roubaix.

If Pog was unable to drop MvdP last year, I don't think he could have dropped Wout. It's obvious enough to me that '22 Wout >> '23 Wout.