Teams & Riders Official Wout Van Aert thread

[Ilmaestro99]

Exactly this. He's probably a top 10 sprinter, a top 5 time trialist and a good climber, but he's not the best in the world at anything.

Neither is Colbrelli, nor Stuyven, nor Asgreen. And they win monument

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Neither is Colbrelli, nor Stuyven, nor Asgreen. And they win monument

Yeah sure, my point was just that he might be better off and win more/bigger races if he didn't focused on doing everything.

That said, Van Aert has as many monument wins as Colbrelli, Stuyven and Asgreen.

 

[Extinction]

Exactly this. He's probably a top 10 sprinter, a top 5 time trialist and a good climber, but he's not the best in the world at anything.

The proverbial jack of all trades and master of none. But he's reaped well from what he has sown so far. Still if he starts to narrow his objectives down he probably would be almost invincible in those he targets.

 

[Netserk]

I am getting more the impression that he is just not build for these ~250km classics. He has 7 participations in RVV and PR already and he only achieved podium once in last year's Ronde.

Time may prove me wrong but although he is an outstanding rider I just can't see him being the serial monument winner that would replace Boonen.

Sagan only has 3 podiums in 19 participations of RVV and PR (2nd podium in his 10th participation). If you include MSR, it's 5 podiums in 30 participations. Only 2 wins.

I wouldn't say that it's because he isn't build for long races, but because of the nature of such races, how he is treated by others, how he races, and what team support he has had. Not too dissimilar to Van Aert.

 

[Red Rick]

Neither is Colbrelli, nor Stuyven, nor Asgreen. And they win monument

I'll leave Stuyven out of this cause Sanremo is much more of a lottery race and despite the distance the monument where endurance matters by far the least.

But for the others the duration does blunt the pure intrinsic ability a lot, and this probably is the most true for Roubaix where everyone is dead in the end. Van Aert probably isn't better at pure endurance so he has a limited amount of resources over a guy like Colbrelli and he didn't even have that today.

Now van Aert is mostly just tired and in Roubaix you waste energy when you're less sharp by all sorts of little things. Van der Poel meanwhile burnt his biggest match on that attack in which he closed down Colbrelli, and then after all his crazy efforts he was just a spent force.

Boonens peak as a sprinter was pretty short, but as a cobbler he *** lasted for days. Cancellara too. That's a big difference between being a rouleur and being a TTer. Doing it on a road bike on the flats 6 hours into the race.

 

[Red Rick]

Sagan only has 3 podiums in 19 participations of RVV and PR (2nd podium in his 10th participation). If you include MSR, it's 5 podiums in 30 participations. Only 2 wins.

I wouldn't say that it's because he isn't build for long races, but because of the nature of such races, how he is treated by others, and what team support he has had. Not too dissimilar to Van Aert.

How many times can you argue did Sagan lose a podium in those races due to a weak team. Also how do his results compare to E3 and GW?

I do think RVV and Roubaix are "harder" than other monuments and WC type races because they're super hard for a longer period of time whereas Liege and Lombardia or even a Tokyo Olympics or an Imola WCRR will be relatively chill until 20-30km to go. Sagan didn't underperform in long races outside the cobbles, but I think he definitely underperformed in Roubaix and Vlaanderen compared to GW/E3 etc.

Lastly tbh I think the Vlaanderen route finishing in Oudenaarde is a bit harder and I think it definitely got harder for the real heavyweights to win there.

 

[Extinction]

I'll leave Stuyven out of this cause Sanremo is much more of a lottery race and despite the distance the monument where endurance matters by far the least.

I beg your pardon in San Remo it might seem endurance doesn't matter, but tell that to the many who have lost because they ran out of gas in the final (after almost 300 k).

 

[Red Rick]

I beg your pardon in San Remo it might seem endurance doesn't matter, but tell that to the many who have lost because they ran out of gas in the final (after almost 300 k).

I'm gonna bet the total energy expenditure in Milano Sanremo is the lowest of the 5 monuments if we normalize for weight. It is more km, but it's not more than an hour longer in duration than the others except for Il Lombardia, and in the first 100km they do comically low watts a lot of the time.

 

[Extinction]

I'm gonna bet the total energy expenditure in Milano Sanremo is the lowest of the 5 monuments if we normalize for weight. It is more km, but it's not more than an hour longer in duration than the others except for Il Lombardia, and in the first 100km they do comically low watts a lot of the time.

Could be, I don't know, but i capi on the way to San Remo break the legs of the sprinters and put those to the sword who must attack to drop the former. Look, after almost 300 k and being a monument and all the mental energy this also entails, winning is not easy. In fact it might actually be harder to win, because you can't rely on attrition and the strongest guy just moves ahead as you can in some other monuments. Don't underestimate San Remo sir!

 

[noob]

Wout interview after PR: "I wasn't good enough". Not "I didn't have the legs". Really, really painful to watch. </3

I hope he gets some rest soon. Even if it's not obvious...

Maybe the reason he does/tries everything is because he is really trying to find his niche? Like sometimes when we want something really bad we do everything and anything. He is under ridiculous pressure and at the same time seems to be lacking real support where it matters. Not a fun place to be.

I've said it before and I say it again. He appears young and not very self aware.

Today though not even the slightest arrogant.

 

[Ilmaestro99]

I'm gonna bet the total energy expenditure in Milano Sanremo is the lowest of the 5 monuments if we normalize for weight. It is more km, but it's not more than an hour longer in duration than the others except for Il Lombardia, and in the first 100km they do comically low watts a lot of the time.

Yeah but Ulissi never did a good result in Sanremmo. Therefore it is endurance race

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah but Ulissi never did a good result in Sanremmo. Therefore it is endurance race

Isn't Ulissi just terrible at positioning or some ***?

 

[Ripper]

This guy is overrated

 

[Carrick-On-Seine]

This guy is overrated

Bookmakers have really helped stoked the hype.
He was either favourite or very short odds for Olympics RR & TT, Worlds RR & TT and Paris-Roubaix.
Then lazy journalists looked at those lists and repeated the hype.
It's near impossible to live up to all that.
I'm not a fan but he is an incredible rider.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

This guy is overrated

Peaking 4 times in one season is simply not realistic.

 

[houtdffan]

The proverbial jack of all trades and master of none. But he's reaped well from what he has sown so far. Still if he starts to narrow his objectives down he probably would be almost invincible in those he targets.

'a better George Hincapie, except he doesn't know his place

Thinking he deserves doms of his own at the tour? Pathetic! Leave him off the tour team then.

This puts his not riding for Vingegaard in a new light. It wasn't about making sure the team got the stage win. It was all about himself and his ambitions

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

'a better George Hincapie, except he doesn't know his place

Thinking he deserves doms of his own at the tour? Pathetic! Leave him off the tour team then.

This puts his not riding for Vingegaard in a new light. It wasn't about making sure the team got the stage win. It was all about himself and his ambitions

This is getting quite silly. While i agree he shouldn't have been undisputed leader at the WCC on that course and Evenepoel in such form, insinuating he should have waited for Vingegaard is nothing short of laughable. If anything, his results would have been a lot better had he been supported by his team somewhat adequately, he's had to waste too much energy in many races due to non-existent support. He is #2 in the world. Yes, he deserves his own support.

 

[Rackham]

This is getting quite silly. While i agree he shouldn't have been undisputed leader at the WCC on that course and Evenepoel in such form, insinuating he should have waited for Vingegaard is nothing short of laughable. If anything, his results would have been a lot better had he been supported by his team somewhat adequately, he's had to waste too much energy in many races due to non-existent support. He is #2 in the world. Yes, he deserves his own support.

Not when JV are fighting for the yellow jersey, no he doesn't. When people say WvA deserves dedicated doms in the Tour, it's usually followed by insinuations Roglic is useless & cannot beat Pogacar or doesn't deserve to be pulled by WvA. In effect, WvA should absolutely pull for Roglic in the Tour de France. The same way all of WvA's teammates pull for him in his own races. Yes, even when he loses.

But it's all a moot point because the best results & actual performances which make van Aert's season more interesting than his wins suggest were actually not stage wins or one day race wins, but the promise he showed in Tirreno-Adriatico & other stage races (even the Tour of Britain). He has excellent sense of positioning (at least until yesterday, but the nature of that race means no one can totally judge a rider for some mishaps), he reads the race well, he can sprint, he can climb, he's got good bike handling (Sean Kelly would agree) & he's also consistently among the best.

He's also 27 years old & improving with each season. So instead of targeting specific races or peaks of form for these races which can often be decided by luck, or announcing 10 months in advance he wants the green jersey next year, he should just focus on progressing everything he does well as an all-round road cyclist. The rest (wins) will follow. He could also very realistically start winning one week races which feature a TT & a couple of mountain stages.

I feel from the outside the biggest issues with WvA come from the massive amount of hype & pressure he even puts on himself. I mean this is a rider who literally said he'd rather win the world championship road race in a sprint because it's "more satisfying". I'm sure Alaphilippe disagrees.

 

[bNator]

This is getting quite silly. While i agree he shouldn't have been undisputed leader at the WCC on that course and Evenepoel in such form, insinuating he should have waited for Vingegaard is nothing short of laughable. If anything, his results would have been a lot better had he been supported by his team somewhat adequately, he's had to waste too much energy in many races due to non-existent support. He is #2 in the world. Yes, he deserves his own support.

You can also claim that this year's Vuelta winner and this year'sTour runner up deserve a full scale GC team… But they aren't going to get one either so to finally be able to qote one of my favourite movie one-liners in a real-life situation: Deserve's got nothing to do with it.

It's up to TJV to set their priorities and they must understand that:

• They have a far lesser chance of winning Yellow if they go for Green with Wout
• There's a chance Wout is not going to be motivated at all if they don't let him and support him go for Green or even leave team
• There's a chance Roglic or Vinge are going to leave team if they don't get sufficient support in TDF.
• And finally: Yellow >> Green, except maybe in countries TJV's main sponsors come from where Wout's Green may in fact have similar market value that Primoz's or Vinge's Yellow. This is really just a guesswork from my side - I know nothing about that one... But thing would surely be a lot easier to decide if TJV had a global sponsor.

Not to upset @Rackham to much: From my post it seems like I'm considering Roglic and Vingegaard as equals which I'm not - I think Roglic is still way better GT rider. However, Vingegaard's result this year means he deserves equal opportunity next year - at least up to the point where road put everyone in their place...

 

[Red Rick]

The key for Jumbo for Van Aert is good support in the classics. If that's great, I don't see him leaving over a green jersey unless another team simply offers much more $$$$ which ofcourse is quite possible.

 

[OlavEH]

Exactly this. He's probably a top 10 sprinter, a top 5 time trialist and a good climber, but he's not the best in the world at anything.

Exactly. I don't really buy that his endurance is the problem. It's more likely that is he trying to bite off more than he can chew and attempting too many form peaks during a season. This will give him a lot of wins, but not necessarily many monument wins. Right now he seem able to win most one day races, most one week races, mountain stages and sprinter stages in Grand Tours and big ITT wins (GTs and WC/Olympics). If he chooses to prioritize a bit differently, he may not win on Ventoux or Champs Elyses, but he could increase his chances to win monuments and the other biggest one day races.

 

[Boes]

This guy is overrated

Yeah, you're right.
2 stage wins and overall 2nd in TA
3 stagewins in TdF
Gent-Wevelgem win
Amstel Gold win
3 stagewins and overall in Brittain tour
top 10 in RVV, PR, Harelbeke, Strade, MS, WC and others
silver in TT WC
Silver in TT OG

in 2020 alone...

what an underachiever

 

[Rackham]

Not to upset @Rackham to much: From my post it seems like I'm considering Roglic and Vingegaard as equals which I'm not - I think Roglic is still way better GT rider. However, Vingegaard's result this year means he deserves equal opportunity next year - at least up to the point where road put everyone in their place...

I don't have a problem with Vingegaard being protected (& sitting on Roglic's wheel). It makes sense because he's basically the "backup plan" for yellow. And he's part of that combined effort to win the Tour de France. It's as Roglic has said in the Vuelta before when asked if Sepp Kuss could win the overall, i.e. "yes, if he has the legs" (words to that effect).

I could totally see JV using Vingegaard as a second leader next year to fight Pogacar. WvA meanwhile is of no use to the rest of the team (except himself) with his ambition for the green jersey.

 

[Red Rick]

Yeah, you're right.
2 stage wins and overall 2nd in TA
3 stagewins in TdF
Gent-Wevelgem win
Amstel Gold win
3 stagewins and overall in Brittain tour
top 10 in RVV, PR, Harelbeke, Strade, MS, WC and others
silver in TT WC
Silver in TT OG

in 2020 alone...

what an underachiever

Expectations vs reality. Van Aert was the betting favorite or a top 2 betting favorite I think for 3 monuments, the OGRR, OGTT, and WCRR, and with some really short odds in there. Compared to those expectations, he's definitely underperformed in those races. That does not mean he is not a world class rider.

 

[bNator]

I don't have a problem with Vingegaard being protected (& sitting on Roglic's wheel). It makes sense because he's basically the "backup plan" for yellow. And he's part of that combined effort to win the Tour de France. It's as Roglic has said in the Vuelta before when asked if Sepp Kuss could win the overall, i.e. "yes, if he has the legs" (words to that effect).

I could totally see JV using Vingegaard as a second leader next year to fight Pogacar. WvA meanwhile is of no use to the rest of the team (except himself) with his ambition for the green jersey.

Well his stage wins are of use to TJV's sponsors. In optimal scenario, TJV wins Yellow and Green while Wout wins 3-5 stages while doing that. This would even be feasible if Tadej Pogacar didn't exist or if he embraces his newfound sunny disposition and starts doing spectacular wheelies instead of dropping guys uphill.

TJV is in unique position here. Other GC-focused teams (Ineos, UAE, Movistar) simply don't have a rider of Wout's calibre and market appeal and things are much simpler there. But we need to understand Wout generates a lot of publicity. He is one of the top 5 cyclists publicity-wise and he is always going to be a part of TDF team. The thing is that going for Green must have a bad cost-benefit ratio from team's perspective. A lot less chances for Yellow for a rather small gain you get with Green. And it's not like Green is a done deal for Wout either. They can go for Green and fail and fail Yellow as well - because they went for Green. I think this years model is the best compromise - team being GC focused with Wout having a free role while occasionally (if the curcumstances arise) working for GC goal. He can win a couple of stages, a time trial and be happy that the team can still aim for Yellow... In exchange, TJV must provide him a much better support in the classics.