Teams & Riders Official Wout Van Aert thread

[Bolder]

Van Aert literally has better support on Jumbo than anywhere else he could go. He moves and he gets a worse classics team. Not to mention his performance probably goes down as well. And then boom, instead of being the ~6th best rider in the world you're no longer top 10.

I agree with this in principle. But I wonder if you put him on a team like, say, Trek or Ineos -- he's got quite good support, but maybe has a new sense of freedom. I love Wout as a physical specimen, but let's face it -- he should be winning more.

I'm not even sure his performance would be all that bad at a mid-tier team. Sagan and MvDP kicked a** at smaller teams.

On the other, other hand -- on a smaller team he might be in a Sagan situation -- strongest guy in the race but no teammates to take off pressure or counter attacks.

It's kind of a dilemma. I would hate for him to finish racing without a WCRR title, a few P-Rs, and some more quality Tour stage wins. Of all the riders out there now, he's probably behind only Pog (and maybe Remco) as someone who could win all 5 monuments.

 

[Peter von]

If Van Aert would leave JV for Isreal he should be declared as insane and put into an institution.

Probably. But it seems it’s mostly their 30-something riders in it for one last big pay check that fails big there. They have more hungry riders that do well, or at least ok, Woods seems to be at a normal age-decline rate at Israel. If they stopped spending ressources on Dan MArtins and Chris Froomes etc they have a lot of ressources to head hunt riders and backroom staff from Jumbo to help out for example Wout. Tho getting out of that Froome deal might not be easy.

I agree with this in principle. But I wonder if you put him on a team like, say, Trek or Ineos -- he's got quite good support, but maybe has a new sense of freedom. I love Wout as a physical specimen, but let's face it -- he should be winning more.

I'm not even sure his performance would be all that bad at a mid-tier team. Sagan and MvDP kicked a** at smaller teams.

On the other, other hand -- on a smaller team he might be in a Sagan situation -- strongest guy in the race but no teammates to take off pressure or counter attacks.

It's kind of a dilemma. I would hate for him to finish racing without a WCRR title, a few P-Rs, and some more quality Tour stage wins. Of all the riders out there now, he's probably behind only Pog (and maybe Remco) as someone who could win all 5 monuments.

I think Wout can probably carry on training on similar levels unless Jumbo has him doing training and eating blindfolded. I doubt any new team would try to make big changes to his regimes.

Wout should be winning more, but I think outside of the Tour he can't get better support that he has now and he can choose his own schedule. And he keeps being in the mix for the monuments he participates in, so I think he will eventually win the dice throw and win them. So if he wants to win monuments he probably should just stay at Jumbo and focus on that, he can still win a bunch of green jerseys on top of stage wins in the Tour.

In the Tour he could perhaps do a little bit better if he doesn't have to put in those big shifts in the mountains for Jonas Vingegaard I don't know if he could be winning on sprint stages if he had a train?
-certainly can't be ruled out, especially if it's slightly uphill.

The safest thing for Wout to do is certainly to stay where he is. He has already won 10 stages(1 TTT+2 ITT) and one Green jersey at Jumbo despite them being a GC team and his legacy will be written in the monuments.
But I can defo see the allure of moving to a team where he doesn't have to work for a GC leader and where he is top dog, his results certainly are good enough that even for teams on the level of Bora, Trek or QS(if Remco leaves) it would be a better option than what they currently have.
INEOS as well, though I think they still want to win the Tour, so there he would be placeholder leader until their next Froome shows up, the good thing about that though is that so long as Pogi and Vingegaard are battling for the Tour win, INEOS doesn't need to do a lot of work for a team leader who's job is basically to keep the wheel as long as he can.

 

[OlavEH]

Probably. But it seems it’s mostly their 30-something riders in it for one last big pay check that fails big there. They have more hungry riders that do well, or at least ok, Woods seems to be at a normal age-decline rate at Israel. If they stopped spending ressources on Dan MArtins and Chris Froomes etc they have a lot of ressources to head hunt riders and backroom staff from Jumbo to help out for example Wout. Tho getting out of that Froome deal might not be easy.

Isreal is IMO a fairly shitty team. Van Aert is nowhere near a point in his career where he should mainly pursue one last big pay check. Maybe in 3-4 years. Not now.

QS and perhaps Ineos should be his only options for changing teams. No one else.

 

[Red Rick]

I agree with this in principle. But I wonder if you put him on a team like, say, Trek or Ineos -- he's got quite good support, but maybe has a new sense of freedom. I love Wout as a physical specimen, but let's face it -- he should be winning more.

I'm not even sure his performance would be all that bad at a mid-tier team. Sagan and MvDP kicked a** at smaller teams.

On the other, other hand -- on a smaller team he might be in a Sagan situation -- strongest guy in the race but no teammates to take off pressure or counter attacks.

It's kind of a dilemma. I would hate for him to finish racing without a WCRR title, a few P-Rs, and some more quality Tour stage wins. Of all the riders out there now, he's probably behind only Pog (and maybe Remco) as someone who could win all 5 monuments.

He should be winning be more, but the problem does not lie in team support at all. Tour de France stages isn't where he has underperformed, or where he needs more support.

Van Aerts problem is just getting beaten in Sanremo, De Ronde, Roubaix and the Worlds/Olympics, and part of that is simply being unlucky of being the same age as MvdP.

Sagan IMO is bad comparison because he had much weaker competition in the biggest races and he still managed to underperform in the monuments. IMO Van Aert is physiologically better than Sagan ever was.

 

[Peter von]

Isreal is IMO a fairly shitty team. Van Aert is nowhere near a point in his career where he should mainly pursue one last big pay check. Maybe in 3-4 years. Not now.

QS and perhaps Ineos should be his only options for changing teams. No one else.

the disrespect to Derek Gee

agreed QS and INEOS are the only one where the slight downgrade in classics support is outweighed by the absense of a GC leader big enough that Wout needs to work for him in the Tour, If Remco leaves.

 

[OlavEH]

agreed QS and INEOS are the only one where the slight downgrade in classics support is outweighed by the absense of a GC leader big enough that Wout needs to work for him in the Tour, If Remco leaves.

Or if Lefevre would agree to WVA joining without having to work for Remco in the GTs. The main point I think would be if QS actually could afford if they want to keep Remco. He still is far from having the same support as Pog ang Vingegaard, and both Van Aert and 2-3 top domestiques for Remco would be expensive.

 

[meat puppet]

WVA's key problem is he relies too much on his sprint and rides defensively. Statistically, his time should come in monuments if he just keeps rolling the dice, but all too often he does not do it at all. Whether that has a physiological basis (worse fatigue resistance relative to key competitors after 4-5000kJ of wurk; or just lacking in the kick department relative to MVDP), or is psychological is anyone's guess. Probably a combination.

It's no secret that to me WVA is the only likeable current head-of-state rider. In a sense, my sympathies derive from exactly what ilmaestro and many others ridicule, i.e. his tendency to not win against all odds. Don't know if he comes from a working class background or not, but to me there is this odd sense of timidity in his way of carrying things during races, which stands in a curious contradiction to his physical parameters.

Tongue in cheek add-on: the Bastille-day is gone already, but what's the point in glory-hunting blue-blooded cycling royalty (literally MVDP, proverbially Pog)?

 

[joseph89]

Or if Lefevre would agree to WVA joining without having to work for Remco in the GTs. The main point I think would be if QS actually could afford if they want to keep Remco. He still is far from having the same support as Pog ang Vingegaard, and both Van Aert and 2-3 top domestiques for Remco would be expensive.

Wout joins QS if remco leaves, that's the only way lefevere saves the team and keeps the sponsors onboard.

 

[Volderke]

Any of Pogacar-Vingegaard-Roglic-Evenepoel-Van der Poel would have to be ranked worse than Van Aert for him to be better than 6th. Who do you choose, and why?

Van der Poel, for instance, is only 15th on the PCS ranking, but it would be difficult to argue that Van Aert is better than him this season.

There have been forums filled with these comparisons, especially this one, but just another try:

What's the best rider? There is no global consensus. Some value one aspect of riding more than the other, and a points system doesn't say it all (like you mention MvdP being 15th in PCS).
For me, a best rider is someone who is a complete rider that can win everything in every way on every terrain, that can climb, sprint, is good at bike handling, positioning and can lead the group he is in e.g. on a technical downhill, that can carry the weight of a race if there is no team around him, create decisive moves either mid-race splitting up the peloton, or at the end of the race going solo, can defend well without always having to rely on other riders, his team, performs well in every race he's taking part in, rides from February to October, ...

I was going to discuss in detail what I think are strong / weak points of the riders you mention (compared to WvA), but I'm afraid I will get dragged into a fanboy discussion about each of these riders (except Pogacar, in which I cannot detect real weaknesses, only maybe slight disadvantage vs WvA with regards to flat sprinting and flat TT but nothing else).

So I'll focus on WvA in a positive way:
WvA is a complete rider in most areas except GT riding as he is a limited climber. Notwithstanding his low win rate this year, in all races that mattered, he was either the best rider in the race, whether or not on par with another rider (think E3, GW, Roubaix), or within the top 3 with only MdvP and Pogacar being clearly superior (RVV, MSR) in some races. It's hard to be named the 6th best rider in the world, if all you ever did was finish 1, 2, 3 or 4th in every race you targeted, but anyway.
WvA has been (and I'm not saying this, most pro riders say this) the strongest rider in the TdF in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023: he decided singlehandedly if a break was allowed to go, if he was going in the break, he pulled for ages at the front of the peloton, won some TT and sprint finishes in between,... He was and is massive. He does most of the decents in the mountains / hilly stages at the front of the peloton when Jumbo is pulling. No other rider in the TdF does the same amount of work AND is winning stages at the same time.

If I have to evaluate who is the strongest rider in the peloton, I refer to these comparisons below and especially the graph and the points / km. Based on these, WvA is worse than Pogacar (with Pogacar being the reference point and the very best rider since... Hinault? Merckx?), just a little worse than Evenepoel (but the trajectory of Evenepoel is not consolidated yet: if he keeps on going like this, he's clearly better, but if he deteriorates just a bit, he's on par with WvA but not really better), on par with Roglic (but Roglic has and will have a shorter career), but he's better than MvdP and Vingegaard on these stats. Stats ofcourse neglect that WvA doesn't have the same number of big wins like Pogacar, Evenepoel Roglic, Vingegaard and MvdP, but compared to WvA, some of these riders are far less complete (in terms of what I mentioned above), and much more of one-trick (or some-trick) ponies. People on this forum keep valuing one-trick-ponies more than complete riders, fine, but to state that this rider is better or worse than that rider is a subjective excercise. I made mine here, but at least I back it up with some arguments (ofcourse, some of those are my personal opinion) AND stats (again, some of those stats are not important for those who value big wins over something as abstract as points, but imho, points reflect how much a rider puts effort in his races, and how much a rider is present in races. You have much more TV time of someone like WvA, Pogacar and Evenepoel as these riders attack solo much more often, compared to Vingegaard and Roglic for example, and this (subjective) feeling reflects in the (objective) points ranking.

If you would make a spiderweb diagram of all of the riders mentioned above, Pogacar's will be perfectly round, WvA will be round except for climbing, and all others will have gaps and spikes here and there. In terms of well-rounded riders, WvA is among the very best. If you keep saying he is the 6th best, watch the Tokyo Olympics again, or Roubaix this year, or every single TdF stage last year (and most of those this year). For a 6th best riders, he is surely hurting the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th (however those might be ranked)... a lot of times in a lot of races.

Wout van Aert versus Tadej Pogačar

Head to head career results between Wout van Aert and Tadej PogaÄar. The overal score is 39.2% for Wout van Aert versus 60.8% for Tadej PogaÄar. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

Pogacar clearly wins. Points / km stellar by Pogacar: 23.9 (WvA: 20.9)

Wout van Aert versus Remco Evenepoel

Head to head career results between Wout van Aert and Remco Evenepoel. The overal score is 53.3% for Wout van Aert versus 46.7% for Remco Evenepoel. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

Evenepoel slightly better in his trajectory, but it's still a very short one so we'll have to see. Points / km =20.3 is almost the same WvA: 20.9).

Wout van Aert versus Primož Roglič

Head to head career results between Wout van Aert and Primož RogliÄ. The overal score is 44.6% for Wout van Aert versus 55.4% for Primož RogliÄ. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

On par with Roglic, but WvA shouldn't deteriorate in the coming 2 years. Points / km 15.9 (WvA: 20.9)

Wout van Aert versus Mathieu van der Poel

Head to head career results between Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel. The overal score is 56.4% for Wout van Aert versus 43.6% for Mathieu van der Poel. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

WvA clearly wins. Points / km = 16.6 (WvA: 20.9)

Page not found | ProCyclingStats

www.procyclingstats.com

WvA clearly wins. Vingegaard has never done a season as good as WvA. Points / km = 12.9 vs. 20.9 for WvA.

 

[theyoungest]

There have been forums filled with these comparisons, especially this one, but just another try:

What's the best rider? There is no global consensus. Some value one aspect of riding more than the other, and a points system doesn't say it all (like you mention MvdP being 15th in PCS).
For me, a best rider is someone who is a complete rider that can win everything in every way on every terrain, that can climb, sprint, is good at bike handling, positioning and can lead the group he is in e.g. on a technical downhill, that can carry the weight of a race if there is no team around him, create decisive moves either mid-race splitting up the peloton, or at the end of the race going solo, can defend well without always having to rely on other riders, his team, performs well in every race he's taking part in, rides from February to October, ...

I was going to discuss in detail what I think are strong / weak points of the riders you mention (compared to WvA), but I'm afraid I will get dragged into a fanboy discussion about each of these riders (except Pogacar, in which I cannot detect real weaknesses, only maybe slight disadvantage vs WvA with regards to flat sprinting and flat TT but nothing else).

So I'll focus on WvA in a positive way:
WvA is a complete rider in most areas except GT riding as he is a limited climber. Notwithstanding his low win rate this year, in all races that mattered, he was either the best rider in the race, whether or not on par with another rider (think E3, GW, Roubaix), or within the top 3 with only MdvP and Pogacar being clearly superior (RVV, MSR) in some races. It's hard to be named the 6th best rider in the world, if all you ever did was finish 1, 2, 3 or 4th in every race you targeted, but anyway.
WvA has been (and I'm not saying this, most pro riders say this) the strongest rider in the TdF in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023: he decided singlehandedly if a break was allowed to go, if he was going in the break, he pulled for ages at the front of the peloton, won some TT and sprint finishes in between,... He was and is massive. He does most of the decents in the mountains / hilly stages at the front of the peloton when Jumbo is pulling. No other rider in the TdF does the same amount of work AND is winning stages at the same time.

If I have to evaluate who is the strongest rider in the peloton, I refer to these comparisons below and especially the graph and the points / km. Based on these, WvA is worse than Pogacar (with Pogacar being the reference point and the very best rider since... Hinault? Merckx?), just a little worse than Evenepoel (but the trajectory of Evenepoel is not consolidated yet: if he keeps on going like this, he's clearly better, but if he deteriorates just a bit, he's on par with WvA but not really better), on par with Roglic (but Roglic has and will have a shorter career), but he's better than MvdP and Vingegaard on these stats. Stats ofcourse neglect that WvA doesn't have the same number of big wins like Pogacar, Evenepoel Roglic, Vingegaard and MvdP, but compared to WvA, some of these riders are far less complete (in terms of what I mentioned above), and much more of one-trick (or some-trick) ponies. People on this forum keep valuing one-trick-ponies more than complete riders, fine, but to state that this rider is better or worse than that rider is a subjective excercise. I made mine here, but at least I back it up with some arguments (ofcourse, some of those are my personal opinion) AND stats (again, some of those stats are not important for those who value big wins over something as abstract as points, but imho, points reflect how much a rider puts effort in his races, and how much a rider is present in races. You have much more TV time of someone like WvA, Pogacar and Evenepoel as these riders attack solo much more often, compared to Vingegaard and Roglic for example, and this (subjective) feeling reflects in the (objective) points ranking.

If you would make a spiderweb diagram of all of the riders mentioned above, Pogacar's will be perfectly round, WvA will be round except for climbing, and all others will have gaps and spikes here and there. In terms of well-rounded riders, WvA is among the very best. If you keep saying he is the 6th best, watch the Tokyo Olympics again, or Roubaix this year, or every single TdF stage last year (and most of those this year). For a 6th best riders, he is surely hurting the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th (however those might be ranked)... a lot of times in a lot of races.

Wout van Aert versus Tadej Pogačar

Head to head career results between Wout van Aert and Tadej PogaÄar. The overal score is 39.2% for Wout van Aert versus 60.8% for Tadej PogaÄar. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

Pogacar clearly wins. Points / km stellar by Pogacar: 23.9 (WvA: 20.9)

Wout van Aert versus Remco Evenepoel

Head to head career results between Wout van Aert and Remco Evenepoel. The overal score is 53.3% for Wout van Aert versus 46.7% for Remco Evenepoel. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

Evenepoel slightly better in his trajectory, but it's still a very short one so we'll have to see. Points / km =20.3 is almost the same WvA: 20.9).

Wout van Aert versus Primož Roglič

Head to head career results between Wout van Aert and Primož RogliÄ. The overal score is 44.6% for Wout van Aert versus 55.4% for Primož RogliÄ. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

On par with Roglic, but WvA shouldn't deteriorate in the coming 2 years. Points / km 15.9 (WvA: 20.9)

Wout van Aert versus Mathieu van der Poel

Head to head career results between Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel. The overal score is 56.4% for Wout van Aert versus 43.6% for Mathieu van der Poel. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

WvA clearly wins. Points / km = 16.6 (WvA: 20.9)

Page not found | ProCyclingStats

www.procyclingstats.com

WvA clearly wins. Vingegaard has never done a season as good as WvA. Points / km = 12.9 vs. 20.9 for WvA.

I think there's no doubt that Van Aert is the best allrounder in the peloton right now. Which is basically what you're trying to say (I think) but there's no discussion about that. In terms of actual results, I think Van Aert would gladly trade places with any of the other five riders I mentioned. At the end of the day, it's the results that count. And you just can't argue that at this moment Van Aert is a better rider than Vingegaard. Even though maybe in terms of points gained per kilometer raced he scores higher (which is of course also hugely impacted by the fact that Vingegaard doesn't do one day races, so to me that statistic is pretty much useless).

Cancellara did some great Tours in support of Andy Schleck, he's probably the rider that comes closest to Van Aert in terms of characteristics, but he also had the capacity to dominate in the disciplines he excelled at (cobbled classics and time trials). Van Aert doesn't dominate in anything. It's the "jack of all trades, master of none"-argument I've used before.

Who would you rather have on your team? Pogacar, Vingegaard, Van der Poel, Evenepoel, Roglic, or Van Aert? If you pick Van Aert, you have a great rider, very versatile, but there's always someone stronger. You'll probably score more points than with a Van der Poel or Vingegaard, but you won't win the biggest races either (at least you have a smaller chance of doing so). So yeah... take your pick.

 

[Peter von]

Or if Lefevre would agree to WVA joining without having to work for Remco in the GTs. The main point I think would be if QS actually could afford if they want to keep Remco. He still is far from having the same support as Pog ang Vingegaard, and both Van Aert and 2-3 top domestiques for Remco would be expensive.

Yeah. I suppose, But if Remco all of a sudden is winning the Tour, it's all hands on deck and probably back to a similar position to where Wout is with Jumbo now. But I guess Wout could see it as a gamble worth taking, if he believes Remco cannot compete with Vingegaard over 3 weeks, he would be relied upon to make the Tour a success for the team.

Keeping Remco and getting Wout probably requires additional investments for QS. which isn't unheard of when we're talking about two huge stars like that, but I think it's going to be tough to make all ends meet. Remco also needs to accept that Lefevre is spending money and squad space on Wout instead of better support in the moutains and also using the other QS riders to help Wout instead of Remco. And I think the risk of Remco and Wout clashing over race program wishes is greater than Wout and Vingegaard.
I guess it also comes down to Wout and Remco's feelings towards each other.

I think if Wout moves it's to join QS because QS has lost Remco. And it is rather a big if.

 

[Red Rick]

WVA's key problem is he relies too much on his sprint and rides defensively.

This is one of those lines that just keeps getting repeated and repeated when it makes no sense whatsoever. I can only think of one example where Van Aert incorrectly waited for his sprint and that's the 2022 WC, where his race was basically over at like 80km to go because Evenepoel got in a group ahead.

Van Aert has a very big tendency to attack too much and do too much work in De Ronde, Roubaix, and breakaways.

 

[Volderke]

Who would you rather have on your team? Pogacar, Vingegaard, Van der Poel, Evenepoel, Roglic, or Van Aert? If you pick Van Aert, you have a great rider, very versatile, but there's always someone stronger. You'll probably score more points than with a Van der Poel or Vingegaard, but you won't win the biggest races either (at least you have a smaller chance of doing so). So yeah... take your pick.

Depends on the price ofcourse ;-)

But if I can chose one as a DS and want maximum coverage / results, ofcourse it would be Pogacar.

The thing is, as a DS picking a rider, you look at results but also at publicity and popularity. For that reason, I would pick WvA over Roglic, but the market dictates that it's a no-brainer to pick guys like Evenepoel and Vingegaard before WvA because Vingegaard wins the Tour (the biggest race with most worldwide publicity) and Remco is popular / currently has the rainbow jersey / has more GT potential while still doing great in one-day races..
With MvdP, it's quite balanced: while MvdP has more important wins, he is sometimes very much invisible as well (the best paid lead-out this Tour), and they are both very visible in the classics / cyclocross, so as a DS I would be happy with each of them, but I reckon MvdP has a bigger price tag at the moment.

 

[Red Rick]

There have been forums filled with these comparisons, especially this one, but just another try:

What's the best rider? There is no global consensus. Some value one aspect of riding more than the other, and a points system doesn't say it all (like you mention MvdP being 15th in PCS).
For me, a best rider is someone who is a complete rider that can win everything in every way on every terrain, that can climb, sprint, is good at bike handling, positioning and can lead the group he is in e.g. on a technical downhill, that can carry the weight of a race if there is no team around him, create decisive moves either mid-race splitting up the peloton, or at the end of the race going solo, can defend well without always having to rely on other riders, his team, performs well in every race he's taking part in, rides from February to October, ...

I was going to discuss in detail what I think are strong / weak points of the riders you mention (compared to WvA), but I'm afraid I will get dragged into a fanboy discussion about each of these riders (except Pogacar, in which I cannot detect real weaknesses, only maybe slight disadvantage vs WvA with regards to flat sprinting and flat TT but nothing else).

So I'll focus on WvA in a positive way:
WvA is a complete rider in most areas except GT riding as he is a limited climber. Notwithstanding his low win rate this year, in all races that mattered, he was either the best rider in the race, whether or not on par with another rider (think E3, GW, Roubaix), or within the top 3 with only MdvP and Pogacar being clearly superior (RVV, MSR) in some races. It's hard to be named the 6th best rider in the world, if all you ever did was finish 1, 2, 3 or 4th in every race you targeted, but anyway.
WvA has been (and I'm not saying this, most pro riders say this) the strongest rider in the TdF in 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023: he decided singlehandedly if a break was allowed to go, if he was going in the break, he pulled for ages at the front of the peloton, won some TT and sprint finishes in between,... He was and is massive. He does most of the decents in the mountains / hilly stages at the front of the peloton when Jumbo is pulling. No other rider in the TdF does the same amount of work AND is winning stages at the same time.

If I have to evaluate who is the strongest rider in the peloton, I refer to these comparisons below and especially the graph and the points / km. Based on these, WvA is worse than Pogacar (with Pogacar being the reference point and the very best rider since... Hinault? Merckx?), just a little worse than Evenepoel (but the trajectory of Evenepoel is not consolidated yet: if he keeps on going like this, he's clearly better, but if he deteriorates just a bit, he's on par with WvA but not really better), on par with Roglic (but Roglic has and will have a shorter career), but he's better than MvdP and Vingegaard on these stats. Stats ofcourse neglect that WvA doesn't have the same number of big wins like Pogacar, Evenepoel Roglic, Vingegaard and MvdP, but compared to WvA, some of these riders are far less complete (in terms of what I mentioned above), and much more of one-trick (or some-trick) ponies. People on this forum keep valuing one-trick-ponies more than complete riders, fine, but to state that this rider is better or worse than that rider is a subjective excercise. I made mine here, but at least I back it up with some arguments (ofcourse, some of those are my personal opinion) AND stats (again, some of those stats are not important for those who value big wins over something as abstract as points, but imho, points reflect how much a rider puts effort in his races, and how much a rider is present in races. You have much more TV time of someone like WvA, Pogacar and Evenepoel as these riders attack solo much more often, compared to Vingegaard and Roglic for example, and this (subjective) feeling reflects in the (objective) points ranking.

If you would make a spiderweb diagram of all of the riders mentioned above, Pogacar's will be perfectly round, WvA will be round except for climbing, and all others will have gaps and spikes here and there. In terms of well-rounded riders, WvA is among the very best. If you keep saying he is the 6th best, watch the Tokyo Olympics again, or Roubaix this year, or every single TdF stage last year (and most of those this year). For a 6th best riders, he is surely hurting the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th (however those might be ranked)... a lot of times in a lot of races.

Wout van Aert versus Tadej Pogačar

Head to head career results between Wout van Aert and Tadej PogaÄar. The overal score is 39.2% for Wout van Aert versus 60.8% for Tadej PogaÄar. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

Pogacar clearly wins. Points / km stellar by Pogacar: 23.9 (WvA: 20.9)

Wout van Aert versus Remco Evenepoel

Head to head career results between Wout van Aert and Remco Evenepoel. The overal score is 53.3% for Wout van Aert versus 46.7% for Remco Evenepoel. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

Evenepoel slightly better in his trajectory, but it's still a very short one so we'll have to see. Points / km =20.3 is almost the same WvA: 20.9).

Wout van Aert versus Primož Roglič

Head to head career results between Wout van Aert and Primož RogliÄ. The overal score is 44.6% for Wout van Aert versus 55.4% for Primož RogliÄ. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

On par with Roglic, but WvA shouldn't deteriorate in the coming 2 years. Points / km 15.9 (WvA: 20.9)

Wout van Aert versus Mathieu van der Poel

Head to head career results between Wout van Aert and Mathieu van der Poel. The overal score is 56.4% for Wout van Aert versus 43.6% for Mathieu van der Poel. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

WvA clearly wins. Points / km = 16.6 (WvA: 20.9)

Page not found | ProCyclingStats

www.procyclingstats.com

WvA clearly wins. Vingegaard has never done a season as good as WvA. Points / km = 12.9 vs. 20.9 for WvA.

Oh *** we're back to using PCS points as a metric of rider strength. That ranking has Pello Bilbao higher than Mathieu van der Poel.

Van Aert is massively impressive. But he hasn't won a big fish since 2020. Since Van Aert won Sanremo, Pogacar has won 2 Tours and 4 monuments, Roglic has won 3 GTs, a monument, and Olympic Gold, Vingegaard has won 2 Tours, Van der Poel has won 4 monuments, and Evenepoel has won a GT, 2 monuments and a WC.

 

[Volderke]

This is one of those lines that just keeps getting repeated and repeated when it makes no sense whatsoever. I can only think of one example where Van Aert incorrectly waited for his sprint and that's the 2022 WC, where his race was basically over at like 80km to go because Evenepoel got in a group ahead.

Van Aert has a very big tendency to attack too much and do too much work in De Ronde, Roubaix, and breakaways.

It makes sense, in the sense that he does too much work and brings back too many attacks (which is about the same effort as doing an attack yourself).
He often forgets to make a counter attack, he just brings back an attacker, sits on the wheel, and patiently allows another attacker to go from the back of the group while being a sitting duck in 1st or 2nd place in any lead group.

He was tricked this way in (just some examples that I remember, there are many more):
1. the Tokyo olympics (several times, always at the front when attacks came, and almost always it was him bringing back the attack)
2. RVV 2023 (pulling just before MvdP attacked on Kruisberg)
3. 2nd stage of this TdF (not counterattacking when having a gap with Pidcock)
4. Ghent-Wevelgem 2020 (a WvA masterclass in how NOT to position yourself in the last 3K by and so on.

 

[Valv.Piti]

Lets not act like he has got too lucky either. He literally got photo-finished at Flanders in 2020, and was in blazing form in 2022 when he got hit with corona just before his big targets. He still managed a great Roubaix where he was very much superior to Van der Poel, and the next year he simply got unlucky in the same race. That was pretty much a 50-50%. 2020 the race got cancelled all together, and then you have Flanders in 2021 where he was a bit off form and Flanders 2023 where he plain and simply got outclassed by peak Mathieu and Pogacar.

A bit more luck, and he easily has 3 monuments now. It was basically a coinflip in two instances against Mathieu that he lost.

 

[Volderke]

Oh *** we're back to using PCS points as a metric of rider strength. That ranking has Pello Bilbao higher than Mathieu van der Poel.

You elegantly ignored what I wrote about how I see 'best'/'complete' rider.
You are using wins as a metric of strength. To paraphrase your (one-sided) thoughts on this subject in reply to my post: Erik Zabel won 4 classics. He must be as strong as MvdP!

 

[meat puppet]

This is one of those lines that just keeps getting repeated and repeated when it makes no sense whatsoever. I can only think of one example where Van Aert incorrectly waited for his sprint and that's the 2022 WC, where his race was basically over at like 80km to go because Evenepoel got in a group ahead.

Van Aert has a very big tendency to attack too much and do too much work in De Ronde, Roubaix, and breakaways.

Fair enough, I should have been clearer. Volderke already did a good job arguing that he does not counter often enough. What I'd like to add is that he seldom initiates attacks with full force either. So, if he regularly has something akin to the TDF 22 Calais stage final hill in his legs, why waste it on chasing down moves by others? It's not a foregone conclusion even MVDP follows such 1-2min moves every time, and if he does, it is not a foregone conclusion he wins the sprint.

The above falls under tactics/psychology. In my post I also touched upon potential physiological reasons that could explain his racing style. Maybe WVA just cannot pull those kinds of attacks off after 4-5000kJ, and lacks in the fatigue resistance department.

 

[OlavEH]

Oh *** we're back to using PCS points as a metric of rider strength. That ranking has Pello Bilbao higher than Mathieu van der Poel.

Van Aert is massively impressive. But he hasn't won a big fish since 2020. Since Van Aert won Sanremo, Pogacar has won 2 Tours and 4 monuments, Roglic has won 3 GTs, a monument, and Olympic Gold, Vingegaard has won 2 Tours, Van der Poel has won 4 monuments, and Evenepoel has won a GT, 2 monuments and a WC.

He has been unlucky after that time.

2021: Tried to bite much more than he could chew. TA probably ruined or lessened his chances in RVV and PR, and Tour of Britain for the Worlds.
2022: Contracted covid at a very bad time and coudn't do anything when Remco was in the breakway in the Worlds.
2023: Punctured at a worst possible time in PR.

There have been times where he just didn't match VdP and Pog, but he surely could have one a monument or two if he was a bit luckier after 2020.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

This is one of those lines that just keeps getting repeated and repeated when it makes no sense whatsoever. I can only think of one example where Van Aert incorrectly waited for his sprint and that's the 2022 WC, where his race was basically over at like 80km to go because Evenepoel got in a group ahead.

Van Aert has a very big tendency to attack too much and do too much work in De Ronde, Roubaix, and breakaways.

yes but not always. He rode RVV and PR very defensively. PR even extremely defensively, at least in 2023.. In PR it might even have worked if it wasn't for the flat

 

[Red Rick]

yes but not always. He rode RVV and PR very defensively. PR even extremely defensively, at least in 2023.. In PR it might even have worked if it wasn't for the flat

He never had reason to attack in Vlaanderen once that group got away, he needed Pogacar and MvdP.

 

[CyclistAbi]

He should go to Alpecin. They have no GC rider.

At Alpecin a somewhat similar but a slightly less gifted rider, when it comes to racing at GTs, is in a rather similar position, likely with a bit less freedom, then Wout has at JV. Both don't have much issues with their hair. So there is that.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Late to the party but in @Volderke point of being a more dominant figure in the fight over Sagan, it’s hard to argue against WVA winning if both are in form, going for green, and have a team. Sagan dominated because he could get points when others couldn’t and yes won with big margins. Well WVA can get points Sagan can’t in the TTs and mountains. WVA has also shown he’s consistently strong throughout three weeks. The battle would probably see them being close in the sprints and then WVA pulling away because of the TT and mountain points.

And it is forgotten the work Sagan has put in for his GC leaders; Nibali, Contador, and Kreuziger the latter of which wouldn’t have gotten in the top 10 in 2016 if it wasn’t for his big pulls in the breakaway on the final stage.


I don’t think WVA will leave Jumbo at all. He gets leadership with a great team and program. Only way I can see him leave is if he has solo leadership at the Tour with a good support cast.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

if WVA has no Pogi/VDP in the classics everyone rides on his wheel (like Sagan).
But if he does, they do ride him but he is in danger of getting dropped along the way. It's a difficult one.

 

[Red Rick]

if WVA has no Pogi/VDP in the classics everyone rides on his wheel (like Sagan).
But if he does, they do ride him but he is in danger of getting dropped along the way. It's a difficult one.

If that happens Jumbo just controls and Van Aert obliterates everyone in the final of RVV. No more excuses to miss a move like the Mads Pedersen one this year.

Roubaix is perhaps a bit more complicated but he was on his way to obliterating everyone in that one sector this year.