Olympic Road Race Men

[therhodeo]

So Spain is part of Rest of the World for you? LOL!!!

If you read his posts everyone thats not GB is the "rest of the world".

 

[DirtyWorks]

You seem to forget about few things.
- This is along race
- A bunch sprint doesn't guarantee Cavendish will win
- Sagan is unlikely to win: too young, inexperienced, no team - if it does, he's GAWD!!!

Sky is a one man show, Spain has weapons of mass destruction

I agree with you except for the Sky part. In the very unlikely event the race has few/no sprinters in the last 5K, Sky's got riders who will be there.

I'm doubtful though because there's no incentive for a breakaway or even a punishing pace until the last 40K. This is the fundamental problem for the Olympic event. They need to have non-olympic sub-categories to animate the race. Maybe a points competition at the top of the Box Hill?

 

[Bernie's eyesore]

It's pretty obvious that GB have by far the strongest team here and by far the most likely winner in Cavendish. People who say otherwise are just wrong. Let's all keep our fingers crossed for Cav.

 

[argyllflyer]

Didn't Stannard get into a pointless and fairly lengthy break in the Tour de Pologne a few weeks back? Wonder if they'll send him up the road as an insurance policy or to disrupt any break? He's the only classics specialist in the GBR select as it is.

 

[Tei6chai]

Didn't Stannard get into a pointless and fairly lengthy break in the Tour de Pologne a few weeks back? Wonder if they'll send him up the road as an insurance policy or to disrupt any break?

I don't think so this time. Although Sky do use Stannard that way in the northern classics.

In this case, plan A-Z is to get Cav to the Mall near the front.

Any disruption Stannard might achieve in a big break would take more effort and be less effective than his contribution to a 4-man Sky chase.

 

[Froome19]

Didn't Stannard get into a pointless and fairly lengthy break in the Tour de Pologne a few weeks back? Wonder if they'll send him up the road as an insurance policy or to disrupt any break? He's the only classics specialist in the GBR select as it is.

If this was a race with 9/8 riders then possibly there would be a 1% chance of that, but with only 4 riders capable of working and them being required to work for 250km for Cav regardless of leadouts, to get rid of one of your riders would be sheer folly.

 

[spalco]

It's pretty obvious that GB have by far the strongest team here and by far the most likely winner in Cavendish. People who say otherwise are just wrong. Let's all keep our fingers crossed for Cav.

Yeah, but anything's possible. I'm rooting for Cav, but honestly I think his chances of winning are way overrated. Judging by the videos of the course posted in the other thread, there are many spots where the road is very narrow, this combined with tight corners and sub-optimal road surface, plus probably very nervous riding around Box Hill is a recipe for crashes. I think it's at least as likely that Cavendish doesn't see the finish line at all, as it is that he crosses it in first place.

 

[jrolaf]

I agree with you except for the Sky part. In the very unlikely event the race has few/no sprinters in the last 5K, Sky's got riders who will be there.

I'm doubtful though because there's no incentive for a breakaway or even a punishing pace until the last 40K. This is the fundamental problem for the Olympic event. They need to have non-olympic sub-categories to animate the race. Maybe a points competition at the top of the Box Hill?

No incentive for a breakaway or punishing pace???? That's the only way 90% of the teams stand a chance of winning... So I'd say there's plenty of incentive!

 

[ItsWitz]

What Time is the Race broadcast???

Bikies & bikers,

I understand that the Roadrace is going to be broadcast start to finish ,,,, but i can't quite figure out what time 10:00am BST IS in MST ... is it really at Two AM?????

 

[Catwhoorg]

5am Eastern
4am Central
3am Mountain
2am Western

*though if your state doesn't do day light savings, this will be an hour off

 

[spalco]

Bikies & bikers,

I understand that the Roadrace is going to be broadcast start to finish ,,,, but i can't quite figure out what time 10:00am BST IS in MST ... is it really at Two AM?????

American East Coast time is -4 to Britain at the moment, calculate from there.

 

[DirtyWorks]

No incentive for a breakaway or punishing pace???? That's the only way 90% of the teams stand a chance of winning... So I'd say there's plenty of incentive!

I don't know about that. The world championships use a similar format and the race is a snooze most years. Will there be breakaways? Yes. Will one stick from 40K out? No.

 

[DirtyWorks]

5am Eastern
4am Central
3am Mountain
2am Western

*though if your state doesn't do day light savings, this will be an hour off

Does anyone know if NBC is showing it on their 'free' channel? Or, is it sequestered to a subscriber-based channel? free meaning the traditional over-the-air broadcast channel.

My TV schedule shows the free channel as covering cycling during the overnight, but I don't know if that means the 7-minute visits and a quick summary like so many sports besides swimming/diving/gymnastics.

 

[sankaa]

Cav is the obvious favourite, but I actually think it will be a smaller group of riders that will fight for the gold.

And another thing, isnt Sagan the only rider participating from his country? Im not sure, but if so, he wont be as dangerous as many thinks he will be.

My bet is that riders like Gilbert, Boonen, LL Sanchez, EBH, Cancellara and Goss will be fighting like crazy the last 20 km to get rid of the rest of the peleton and actually make it first to the finish line. If Cav is dropped at Box Hill, he will have to use his teammates to get back in the peleton and then they wont be able to answer the attacks of theese strong riders I mentioned.

I surely do hope there wont be a mass sprint, would be to boring if Cav wins it.

 

[DirtyWorks]

Cav is the obvious favourite, but I actually think it will be a smaller group of riders that will fight for the gold.

And another thing, isnt Sagan the only rider participating from his country? Im not sure, but if so, he wont be as dangerous as many thinks he will be.

My bet is that riders like Gilbert, Boonen, LL Sanchez, EBH, Cancellara and Goss will be fighting like crazy the last 20 km to get rid of the rest of the peleton and actually make it first to the finish line. If Cav is dropped at Box Hill, he will have to use his teammates to get back in the peleton and then they wont be able to answer the attacks of theese strong riders I mentioned.

I surely do hope there wont be a mass sprint, would be to boring if Cav wins it.

The fact that Sagan is essentially outnumbered can work well for him. Everyone in the peloton watching everyone BUT him because he's essentially alone. And then, surprise! I don't think it's going to come down to a group from which he can spring from though...

Based on the way Pat is talking about it, I'd say it's a foregone conclusion it's Cav's race to lose.

 

[Catwhoorg]

Locally for me, its on the NBC affiliate. (WXIA)

So yes on the free to air channel.

 

[argyllflyer]

If this was a race with 9/8 riders then possibly there would be a 1% chance of that, but with only 4 riders capable of working and them being required to work for 250km for Cav regardless of leadouts, to get rid of one of your riders would be sheer folly.

Even discounting him, it does leave three excellent TT specialists to drag Cav back to London though, assuming they'll ride with the peloton over Box Hill x9.

Anyway, was just a random idea.

 

[Froome19]

Even discounting him, it does leave three excellent TT specialists to drag Cav back to London though, assuming they'll ride with the peloton over Box Hill x9.

Anyway, was just a random idea.

Granted, but look at Sky's tactics in the Tour where Froome could have left Wiggins for 1km and gone on to win the stage and yet they refused to allow it and compare it to here where doing such a thing may limit their resources...

 

[SuperH-]

anybody can post the profile of this stage?

 

[Catwhoorg]

Stannard is no ITT slouch himself on the rare occasions he gets to cut loose in one, rather than ride in energy save mode.

 

[mscaviy2601]

TV Coverage wise, Eurosport are only starting their coverage at 2.15, so will only show part of the last box hill loop.

BBC are showing the full race on BBC3, plus looking on the sky planner, there are some 40 odd HD channels specifically available for the olympics, so no doubt will be in HD on one of those too....

Olympic Channel #3 according to the Radio Times. Coverage starts @9:50 I believe.

 

[robert_c]

Olympic Channel #3 according to the Radio Times. Coverage starts @9:50 I believe.

In the USA, NBC is showing it, but I think it is mixed in with a bunch of other events during the broadcast. Hopefully I'll find it at steephill.tv as usual.

 

[Tank Engine]

There are two big differences in comparison to last year's world championship. Firstly, there are 9 ascents of a 2.5km hill in reasonably quick succession. Italy, Spain, Belgium and the Netherlands will want to keep the pace high, which will at least put Cav in trouble at the back of the pack, if not dropped. There was nothing like that in Copenhagen.

Secondly, with a maximum of five riders in a team, no one team should be able to dominate. In the hills, Cav will have to keep up with Farrar (likely given his present form) and Greipel (a harder proposition), as USA and Germany seem to be the only others who might settle for a bunch sprint (although Australia have got Goss, they have more options).

What happens in this middle section will be crucial in determining what happens in the run in. A small break won't stand much of a chance of staying out until the end, but if it's a reasonably big group without e.g. Cav and Greipel then it will become interesting.

 

[robert_c]

Only a 20% chance of rain.

 

[Magnus]

Anybody got a profile of the '96 Atlanta road race?